Trump Indictment Is Not About Speech
There is a lot of bad information out there about the recent Trump indictment relating to January 6. Some of it is the product of wishful thinking while some is the purposeful work of grifters who are trying to encourage Trump’s base.
I’m not a lawyer so I’m going to defer on some of the technical legal questions. “Advisory Opinions,” the must-listen legal podcast with Sarah Isgur and David French, has two very good episodes on the laws involved. The first is an overview of the statutes while the second revisits the erroneous claim that prosecutors do not have to prove intent. I don’t subscribe to the Dispatch, but I’ve mentioned before that “Advisory Opinions” is an excellent podcast that is available without a subscription. Additionally, Ken White, the former Twitter user better known as Popehat, has a substack that skewers Andrew McCarthy’s claim in “National Review” the fraud charges against Trump are illegitimate because there was no “money or tangible property” involved.
Those pieces are definitely worth visiting, but I want to address a third fallacy, namely the claim that Trump is being prosecuted for his speech. None other than Justin Amash made this claim in a tweet yesterday in which he opined that the indictment “attempts to criminalize Trump’s routine misstatements of fact and law in connection with the 2020 election.”
Sorry, Justin, but a simple reading of the indictment (which is available online and I highly recommend it) explodes Amash’s claims. Indeed, the reader only has to reach the third and fourth paragraphs to find Jack Smith’s explanation of why Amash is wrong:
3. The Defendant had a right, like every American, to speak publicly about the election and even to claim, falsely, that there had been outcome-determinative fraud during the election and that he had won. He was also entitled to formally challenge the results of the election through lawful and appropriate means, such as by seeking recounts or audits of the popular vote in states or filing lawsuits challenging ballots and procedures. Indeed, in many cases, the Defendant did pursue these methods of contesting the election results. His efforts to change the outcome in any state through recounts, audits, or legal challenges were uniformly unsuccessful.
4. Shortly after election day, the Defendant also pursued unlawful means of discounting legitimate votes and subverting the election results. In so doing, the Defendant perpetrated three criminal conspiracies:
a. A conspiracy to defraud the United States by using dishonesty, fraud, and deceit to impair, obstruct, and defeat the lawful federal government function by which the results of the presidential election are collected, counted, and certified by the federal government, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 371;
b. A conspiracy to corruptly obstruct and impede the January 6 congressional proceeding at which the collected results of the presidential election are counted and certified (“the certification proceeding”), in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(k);and
c. A conspiracy against the right to vote and to have one’s vote counted, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 241. Each of these conspiracies—which built on the widespread mistrust the Defendant was creating through pervasive and destabilizing lies about election fraud—targeted a bedrock function of the United States federal government: the nation’s process of collecting, counting, and certifying the results of the presidential election (“the federal government function”).
This explanation is borne out by the charges, which are:
- Conspiracy to Defraud the United States—18 U.S.C. § 371
- Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding—18 U.S.C. § 1512(k))
- Obstruction of, and Attempt to Obstruct, an Official Proceeding—18 U.S.C. §§
1512(c)(2), 2)
- Conspiracy Against Rights—18 U.S.C. § 241
Note that three of the charges relate to conspiracy, while one charge is for the act of obstructing an official proceeding. The indictment specifies that this was the counting of the Electoral votes on January 6.
Even though three of the charges relate to conspiracies, there still is no First Amendment issue. In a nutshell, laws against criminal conspiracies are well established and the First Amendment does not protect speech that involves criminal activity.
I consider myself to be a staunch advocate and defender of the First Amendment, but rights are not unlimited. The classic example of a limit on the freedom of speech is that falsely yelling “fire” in a crowded theater is not protected. Lying to people in order to steal from them is also not protected. We call that “fraud.”
It stands to reason that lying to people in order to entice them to overturn an election for you should also not be protected speech. Indeed, if we constitutionally protect the act of trying to steal an election, we will be planting a bomb with a delayed fuse that will eventually destroy the Constitution.
Donald Trump absolutely had a right to make false statements about the election and claim that he won, regardless of the facts. He did not, however, have a right to use those lies to further a plot to overturn the election under false pretenses.
Along similar lines, Donald Trump is not protected because his conspiracy failed. This line of thinking calls to mind a classic “Simpsons” clip in which Sideshow Bob laments that he was “convicted of a crime I didn’t commit. Attempted murder! Honestly, what is that? Do they give a Nobel Prize for attempted chemistry?”
There is a mountain of precedent that attempting to commit a crime is still a criminal act. The fact that the crime was not successful is not relevant. In other words, incompetence in carrying out a criminal plot is not a defense.
We have a long way to go before we see Donald Trump in jail, and I’ll be the first to admit that a conviction is not a sure thing. Trial lawyers will tell you that there is always an element of doubt when a jury is involved. For example, the luck of the draw may place 12 red hats in the jury box. Even if there is a conviction, there is a chance that the Supreme Court will overturn it because the laws in question have not been used in the past in exactly the way that Jack Smith proposes to apply them. But then again, we’ve never had a president attempt to stoke an insurrection to block Congress and the Electoral College from fulfilling their duties.
Having said that, I do believe that the statutes apply and that Donald Trump clearly violated the law. The indictment repeatedly uses phrases like “fraud, dishonesty, and deceit” and “knowingly false claims” when discussing Trump’s activities.
However, the section of the indictment that is headed “The Defendant’s Knowledge of the Falsity of His Election Fraud Claims” does fall short. This section lists numerous times in which Trump was told by his advisors that the claims of widespread election fraud were false. Apologists like Erick Erickson have pointed out that Trump could still believe the lie no matter how many people told him the truth. In that case, the “corrupt intent” required by the statutes could be lacking.
What I expect to see at the trial is evidence that Trump knew that he lost yet told his supporters otherwise. That evidence could come in the form of text messages, emails, recordings, or testimony from other witnesses. In fact, one such piece of evidence has already emerged.
Cassidy Hutchinson was a former White House aide and assistant to Mark Meadows who testified before the January 6 commission. As part of her testimony, Hutchinson said that “he [Trump] had said something to the effect of ‘I don’t want people to know that we lost, Mark, this is embarrassing.”
Hutchinson’s testimony speaks to Trump’s state of mind. If her version of events is accurate, Donald Trump clearly knew that he lost the election and just didn’t want to admit it. He wasn’t fighting election fraud, he was fighting the will of the voters. That establishes criminal intent.
Expect more testimony like that of Cassidy Hutchinson. Will anybody be willing to go under oath and testify that Trump absolutely believed that he was the rightful winner and never admitted behind closed doors that he knew that he lost? We’ll see.
Judging by the entirely terrible defenses of tfg in conservative media he’s toast. Maybe the defense will get better. One thing to consider about the garbage defenses is we haven’t had the trials for the fake electors yet. When those go, and those dopes are convicted, that will clarify a lot of this.Report
TFG’s strategy, plan A: Win the election, pardon himself of everything, crush his enemies.
TFG’s strategy, plan B: Upon losing the election, flee to Russia and thereafter resist extradition.Report
Whatever the merits of the First Amendment defense, or, as I prefer to call it, the George Costanza defense, it will be next to impossible to establish it unless Trump takes the stand and opens himself up to cross-examination.Report
What, make himself the center of attention against advice of counsel?Report
Yeah, baffled at weird 1st amendment claims; seems pretty simple to me. Either they have insiders willing to come forward to corroborate (compellingly) that Trump himself knew it was all lies and therefore it rises to the level of conspiracy to obstruct/defraud, or they don’t. If they don’t, well, you take your chances in court.
The third key-grip on the set won’t be enough, unless the entire rest of the production team corroborates. Do we know what Meadows himself is going to say? Anyone else likely to come forward? Pence seems a wild-card at this point.
I’d be surprised if the defense was 1st amendment; the defense will likely be this: If there’s fraud in the election, the President and the DOJ are required to investigate, which they vigorously did (pause for clapping); the DOJ and the courts eventually ruled there was insufficient evidence of fraud, but the President was continuously advised (deceived? We all know he’ll throw anyone under the bus) that there was more evidence of Fraud that wasn’t yet determined; eventually he lost confidence that the DOJ was serious about investigating which is why he felt that there was no other choice than following the Law as set forth in the ECA: (state) elections where the results are in doubt have a framework for further adjudication. Some State Legislators/Officials agreed with him and it is *their* duty to pursue whatever actions are required in their states to contest the electors. Ultimately those objections were raised (PA and NM) which were duly voted upon and rejected and Trump left office on Jan 20. There was an unfortunate riot on Jan 6 where over-enthusiastic supporters broke in to the Capitol building, but that was beyond the President’s control, and not a conspiracy. [Here Adams would have to connect the Oathkeeper conspiracy directly back to the President – which seems possible – but if it were probable, I feel like we’d already have heard about it]
That’s the nut Adams will have to crack.
I’d be very surprised if the defense gets up there and says the President like all Americans can lie about anything he likes. I’d be surprised, but not gobsmacked; there’s a difference.Report
The actual indictment says the President can lie about these things. SO there’s that.Report
Heh, he did that for his own protection… Imagine coming back to the office, “Whelp folks, we now have to prosecute the President whenever he lies.” Chaos.
I was a little surprised that the indictment specifically cited the ECA. I don’t know whether there was a legal/procedural reason he had to, but I’d’ve remained silent on the ECA in my indictment. Now it almost invites a potentially tedious battle over the meaning of a statute that should have been removed/updated decades ago. And, which will easily be pointed out *was* amended in 2022 to eliminate any of those tedious arguments we might now have to have.Report
It’s one thing to say you can sincerely believe something for which there’s no evidence. Religion, for instance. As a general matter, you believe whether God is real or not without seeking out or consulting a lot of reliable evidence. Which is fine, because religious issues are ultimately unknowable.
What I think is going on with the kind of “knowledge” Smith is describing in the indictment is not that sort of nobody-can-really-know-so-you-just-believe-something sort of faith. “Who won the election?” is something you can know. Three’s a massive apparatus of people and technology aimed solely at answering that question as accurately and quickly as possible, operated by literally hundreds of thousands of people who are all double-checking and cross-checking each other, each with individual incentives to reach the truth. You have a lot of opportunity to know. People are telling you things they call facts. People close to you, people aligned with you, people you have trusted in the past, people who have no incentive to lie to you, people who are subject matter experts in the very field about which they’re talking, people whose job and duty it is to tell you these facts, people who ought to be believed not as a matter of faith but as a matter of fact.
If my doctor tells me I have cancer, I’m going to believe her. It’s her job to tell me, it’s her duty to tell me, it’s her expertise, it’s not because she wants to hurt me but because she wants to see me get better and respond as best I can to the news. I would not like that news at all. It would scare me badly, upset me badly. But it’s not my doctor’s fault and I wouldn’t simply tell the doctor she was wrong. I might say, “I’d like to I get a second opinion,” but that’s not the same thing as disbelieving her and when that second opinion came in the same way, there’d be no more room for doubt regardless of my emotions about the situation.
This is much more like the knowledge of the patient after getting that second opinion. Maybe you can say the patient still sincerely believes that no, they don’t have cancer, but at that point you’re going to explain such a disbelief with words in the neighborhood of “delusion” or “psychosis.” Which are not great words to be applying to the President of the United States of America. And “Trump was delusional and acted on his delusions” is not a line of defense that to can apply to someone who wants that job back and is actively campaigning for it.Report
It’s worth pointing out that all the stuff about Trump knowing that he is lying exists to justify the _fraud_ part, which requires lying, aka, knowing something is untrue. And possibly also in the conspiracy against rights, I am not sure?
What it doesn’t need to justify is the Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding and Obstruction of, and Attempt to Obstruct, an Official Proceeding. In any manner at all.
You not allowed to corruptly obstruct (And, just in case people think ‘obstruct’ is some technicality, the actual law says ‘obstructs, influences, or impedes’, and ‘impedes’ is a much easier descriptor of what he did.), and corruptly actually just means ‘outside the bounds laid out in law’.
You don’t get to do that if you think you’re right, you don’t get to do it even if you are factually, provably, with-100%-certainty, literally correct.
If I _know for a fact_ that an official proceeding is going to have a wrong outcome, I still am not allowed to impede it. Even if I can later prove I was right in court. What I know doesn’t matter, the actual truth does not matter, I am still not allowed to meddle in a corrupt manner.
Additionally, the courts have already agreed that counting the electoral college was an official proceeding, if anyone actually wondered about that really obvious fact. (Some extremely dumb lawyers tried to make a question.)
The only loophole left is ‘corruptly’, which I’m sure Trump will attempt to argue that his repeated attempts to influence Pence were not corrupt, and hell, maybe that will work for that part of the indictment. But it doesn’t really change things, because the plan b of ‘causing enough disruption to cause the vote not to happen’ is certainly not some power the president has, and he took several actions to make that more likely to happen.Report
…and I just read the CATO article that doesn’t seem to know that the courts have already deciding on the ‘Was January 6th an Official Proceeding question’, and that it was a hilariously laughable question to start with.
Here’s the actual law:
Now, you might think that settles it, but it doesn’t actually. Congress in session isn’t normally in a ‘proceeding’, which requires them to have some sorta witness before them or be having some sort of hearing. An impeachment, for example, would be a proceeding, as would a confirmation hearing.
The problem for that loophole is…that’s exactly what Congress had. The Vice President sitting in front of them in a formal manner and announcing the votes. He is actually the witness, that is literally his job, constitutionally speaking. He gets handed the electoral ballots by the states in his position as President of the Senate, he announces them. It’s why Pence thought he couldn’t do anything but announce stuff.
If they had disrupted a normal session of Congress there might be a different argument, but January 6th is as official a proceeding as you’ll ever see in Congress.
In fact, I’m very surprised the DoJ didn’t include 1512(a)(2), which is the thing about using threats of violence to ‘influence, delay, or prevent the testimony of any person in an official proceeding’. Maybe that one didn’t get past the grand jury.Report