And The Oscar Goes To: Final 2023 Oscars Projections

It feels like it was just yesterday that I was putting together a list of fifty-plus potential Best Picture contenders for the 95th Academy Awards, and yet here we are with the ceremony coming to us this Sunday night. A lot of cinephiles and awards season junkies like me are going into the show with a mixture of excitement and trepidation. We could be seeing a historic night for Asian representation, and potentially major love for genre films in the biggest category. We could also be in for one of the all-time let downs in Oscar history if they end up going the way of the BAFTAs, which got a lot of (deserved in my opinion) flack for going with no diversity in their winners, and a pretty generic and baity Best Film choice.

There’s also the fact that we’ve had back-to-back ceremonies that ended in controversy which has lead to headlines like the Academy going back to the past with Jimmy Kimmel as host, and reports of a “crisis team” being in place in case something like slap-gate happens again. There’s a lot of pressure on the Academy as we’ll either see them deliver one of the all-time great ceremonies or we’ll have three straight years of awkwardly bad headlines for them.

Last year I ended up only getting two categories wrong (Picture and Animated Short). As much as I can brag and puff up my chest about that, I also have to admit last year was one of the all-time most predictable Oscars in recent memory. So much so that over at the awards predicting website Gold Derby, I finished 979th place out of nearly 9,500 predictors even with such an amazing result (If you’re curious how ties are broken, its based on what odds your predicted winners had when you picked them). This year I see an extremely likely winner in Picture, Animated Feature, International Film, and Visual Effects followed by some very probable winners in other categories like Supporting Actor or Sound. After that? I can’t remember the last time there were so many two-horse or three-horse races for so many categories. There is no doubt in my humble mind that I won’t match as well as I did last year, so when looking over my predictions keep an eye on not just who I’m picking to win, but who I have in “Upset Alert” or “Dark Horse” watch as well.

The biggest question going into the night is how well will frontrunner Everything Everywhere All At Once do? Will we see it suffer the same fate as past favorites in Picture have in the expanded ballot era? Will we see it pull off a historic showing in the same way it has at so many other awards organizations and industry guilds? Everyone predicting the Oscars this year has to do so within the prism of that film’s performance or lack thereof. Ultimately I’ve decided to take into account its historic sweep across the industry so far alongside its very poor showing at BAFTA and thus will go with a more conservative estimate for its Oscar haul than others are. Granted I’m still predicting a great night for the sci-fi comedy drama, but I’m not quite comfortable enough predicting a massive night for it either; though as you will see with my secondary picks that result is absolutely in play as a reality. If I’m mostly right, I’m mostly right. If I’m mostly wrong, I’m likely happy with where I was wrong anyways given my personal love for the film.

Anyhow without further ado, my predictions for what films and performances will win where for the 95th Academy Awards. You’ll find my analysis, my projections, my alternative choices if I happen to end up wrong in a category, and my personal vote in said category if I were an Academy member for full discretion. Its a pretty massive writeup to make sure you understand all 23 races, so grab a choice of beverage and get to know all the ins and outs going into Oscar night.

Best Picture: Last Spring I argued our initial frontrunner for the big prize was Babylon, a film that proved to be so divisive that it ultimately ended up a few spots away from making the lineup of nominees. After the fall Film Festival season I and many others thought The Fabelmans was going to be the movie to beat, and while it did win at the Golden Globes, it ultimately faded down the stretch and could go home empty-handed on Sunday much less our Best Picture winner. By the time the nominations rolled around it turned out that Everything Everywhere All At Once had climbed from scrappy underdog to the one with the most nominations and the favorite to win it all. Right on its heels has been the latest remake of All Quiet On The Western Front which has garnered major international support and dominated at the BAFTAs, Top Gun: Maverick which on paper should do very well on a preferential ballot, and The Banshees Of Inisherin which pulled off a major Golden Globes win over our frontrunner but has since become second fiddle to every other winner.

Since the mid-2010s we have seen the favorite in Picture lose more than not. The Shape Of Water in 2018 and Nomadland in 2021 are the only frontrunners since that we’ve seen finish the job on Oscar Sunday. But every frontrunner that is upset for Picture tends to have major red flags show up for it during the guild awards. Even going back to the old days of major upsets. Both Saving Private Ryan in 1999 and Brokeback Mountain in 2006 lost to films that beat them for SAG Ensemble and had WGA prizes. Recently frontrunners that tripped at the end include The Revenant in 2016, La La Land in 2017, Roma in 2019, 1917 in 2020, and The Power Of The Dog just last year. But all five missed the all-important SAG Ensemble nomination and thus didn’t win there, three of the five lost at the usually predictive PGA Awards, and the film they all lost to had picked up guild wins and were the known second place films going into Oscar night.

In comparison, Everything Everywhere All At Once has just finished a historic sweep of literally all the major guilds winning PGA (Where a preferential ballot system is used just like the Oscars), DGA, SAG (Where it pulled off a historic sweep), WGA, and that’s not counting stunning upsets it managed at some smaller tech/crafts guilds – even with categories it wasn’t nominated at the Oscars for! It also pulled off a great showing at Critics Choice and Hollywood Critics, which aren’t crossovers with the Academy like the guilds are, but show the intense passion for the film. We are in territory where some of the most dominant frontrunners that either won or lost at Oscar haven’t even reached. By all accounts this film should not lose on Sunday. It honestly would make zero sense to me for it to lose because a guild sweep like this shows cross-over support across all branches of the Academy; and one doesn’t sweep without winning over those pesky older white male voters that many thought this movie would struggle winning over.

And yet I’m also terrified over how heavily favorite it is walking into the ceremony. Many are talking like the movie has already won. And granted all history says it should win, its closest rivals are scattered in support and each faces their own issues to win the big prize. All Quiet On The Western Front and Top Gun: Maverick for instance would have to pull off stat-busting wins that even last year’s CODA didn’t have to overcome; and The Banshees Of Inisherin is struggling to win one Oscar much less have a Picture path. But the movie has done much worse with international groups including an awful performance at BAFTA which does have plenty Academy members in it. And while I do think the lack of support among some older voters has been a tad overhyped and it has won at places some thought it would falter such as PGA, I do believe it is an issue in a preferential ballot system. Thus though my head says I should rate this movie’s win as “Safe” I feel compelled to just rate it “Likely”. Granted if this movie loses I would argue it may just be the biggest upset in Picture history at the Oscars even more so than some historic and infamous ones, and BAFTA does have a horrid track record in matching with Oscar when it comes to Picture. But given what a wild and unlikely winner it would be as well, I won’t feel “Safe” about it until the envelope opens and its title and list of producers is called out on that stage.

My Projection: Likely Everything Everywhere All At Once

Upset Alert: All Quiet On The Western Front

Dark Horses: The Banshees of Inisherin; Top Gun: Maverick

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Avatar: The Way Of Water; Elvis; TAR; The Fabelmans; Triangle Of Sadness; Women Talking

My Vote: 1. Everything Everywhere All At Once; 2. Avatar: The Way Of Water; 3. Top Gun: Maverick; 4. The Banshees of Inisherin; 5. TAR; 6. Women Talking; 7. The Fabelmans;
8. Elvis; 9. All Quiet On The Western Front; 10. Triangle Of Sadness

Best Director: You’d think that the Directors of the movie I rate as likely to win Best Picture would be just as likely to win the directing prize as well, but the Daniels have been pretty mediocre frontrunners. They lost to Spielberg at the Golden Globes and they lost to Berger who isn’t even an Oscar nominee in this category at the BAFTAs. But they did win Critic’s Choice, Hollywood Critics, and the all-important DGA prize which has a scary track record in correctly predicting what Director(s) win at Oscar. Given the love for the movie and the fact I am predicting it to win Picture, I’m also predicting the DGA gets another winner right and the Daniels win here; but watch out for a potential Spielberg upset if voters want to award The Fabelmans somewhere or if Everything Everywhere All At Once has a (unlikely even in a worst case scenario) horrid night I can even see TAR‘s Field pulling off the upset.

My Projection: Leans Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Upset Alert: Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Dark Horse: Field (TAR)

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin); Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness)

My Vote: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Actor: This has turned out to be a wild three-horse race that saw critics heap awards on either Farrell or Fraser, only for the industry to show their love for Butler’s breakthrough performance for a movie it clearly loved. Farrell did win at the Golden Globes and remains a dark horse that could come up the middle and win this, but a major red flag is that he lost the BAFTA even with how well his movie did there overall. Meanwhile Butler won at the Golden Globes and BAFTA, while Fraser won at Critic’s Choice, Hollywood Critics, and SAG. The betting markets are actually siding with Fraser as I write this; he has the narrative, amazing speeches, and the late momentum. But Butler has a Best Picture nominated film on his side where Fraser does not. The Academy also almost always awards at least one bio-pic performance each year, and I think they will again this year which is why I’m predicting Butler though I am pretty shaky on that choice given how all over the place this category has been this awards season.

My Projection: Tilts Butler (Elvis)

Upset Alert: Fraser (The Whale)

Dark Horse: Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Mescal (Aftersun); Nighy (Living)

My Vote: Butler (Elvis)

Best Actress: There is perhaps no tighter race at the Oscars this year than this one. Two seismic performances that film historians will be talking about for decades to come. Two roles that would have swept the awards season if they weren’t up against each other. Whoever wins will be worthy, whoever loses it will have felt like a crime to not award. If there ever was a year to root for a tie its this one in this category. But alas we’re not likely to have a tie. Blanchett is my prediction to win her third Oscar coming off a great win combo with the Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice, and the (usually predictive in this race) BAFTA. But make no two ways about it, Yeoh has build up the exact perfect storm of momentum one needs in the final days of this race. For her part Yeoh has won the Golden Globes, Hollywood Critics, and SAG. Not to mention because of how the awards were scheduled it feels like its been a while now since Blanchett has won while Yeoh has sucked up all the air out of the room with her movie surging just as voting started. Again I’m going with Blanchett to get her third, but I cannot underscore just how much momentum her main competition has going into Oscar night.

My Projection: Tilts Blanchett (TAR)

Upset Alert: Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Dark Horse(s): Riseborough (To Leslie)

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: de Armas (Blonde); Williams (The Fabelmans)

My Vote: Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Supporting Actor: Some would call me nuts to only rate Quan’s win here as “Likely” where as many others see it as “Safe”. On paper I see where they’re coming from. He has literally swept the season with the most wins in critics circle history including pulling off the triple crown of the top three most prestigious and snobbiest critics groups, and he won Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Hollywood Critics, and SAG. He should win and I’m praying he does given what an incredible narrative he has. But he was also upset at BAFTA and while I tend to think that was likely a fluke result from that group not loving Everything Everywhere All At Once as much as others, it does make me pause a bit in a year where both BAFTA and SAG disagreed on all four acting categories – an ultra rare occurrence. I still think Quan wins this and I’m likely overthinking it as he is undoubtedly the biggest favorite of all four acting prizes (in fact as of this writing he is the largest Vegas favorite in all 23 races) but he has lost once and that BAFTA group will bleed into Academy voting.

My Projection: Likely Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Upset Alert: Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Dark Horse: Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Hirsch (The Fabelmans); Tyree Henry (Causeway)

My Vote: Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Supporting Actress: When the awards season started it seemed like Condon was the likely winner in this category as she won most critics circle prizes. However Bassett ended up turning the race upside down and sweeping the major non-industry awards at the Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice, and Hollywood Critics. But the industry awards decided to turn the race upside down themselves. Condon pulled off the win at BAFTA and in a stunner that my SAG sources kept warning me was coming, Curtis won at SAG. I think Bassett can still win this, but I can’t ignore the fact she hasn’t won with an industry group yet and thus I think she’s more of a dark horse than a frontrunner. I think this race has come down to Condon and Curtis. I’m predicting Condon as I find it hard to see The Banshees of Inisherin going empty-handed, but Curtis has all the momentum going into Oscar night with a sizable chunk of industry support and her movie may end up being the story of the entire ceremony.

My Projection: Tilts Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Upset Alert: Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Dark Horse(s): Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Chau (The Whale); Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

My Vote: Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Original Screenplay: At the start of awards season The Banshees of Inisherin seemed to be the critics circles’ choice for this category even as they awarded Everything Everywhere All At Once tons of Picture and Director prizes. But then the latter ended up coming back strong and critics ended up split on which screenplay to award. The Banshees of Inisherin has won this prize at the Golden Globes and BAFTA while Everything Everywhere All At Once has won at Critic’s Choice, Hollywood Critics, and WGA (Though it should be noted ‘Banshees’ was ineligible there). I completely understand those predicting McDonagh getting his Oscar here, but I’ve noticed that when Everything Everywhere All At Once wins at major awards orgs it also pulls off the Screenplay win and Oscar voters are infamous for not being able to separate Screenplay quality from which movie they like more overall. While a win for ‘Banshees’ wouldn’t surprise me here even if Everything Everywhere All At Once wins the big prize, I’m going with the likely Picture winner in this category.

My Projection: Tilts Everything Everywhere All At Once

Upset Alert: The Banshees of Inisherin

Dark Horse(s): The Fabelmans; TAR

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Triangle Of Sadness

My Vote: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Adapted Screenplay: Critics clearly backed Women Talking in this category as it won the most critics circle prizes, Critic’s Choice, and Hollywood Critics. However the film itself has had a rocky awards path going from a one-time top-tier contender to a movie that arguably barely got its Best Picture nomination. However it also seems to have Actor support as it managed a SAG Ensemble nomination, and it getting into Picture to begin with does show that there are some voters who consider it their favorite of the year. Not to mention it has pulled off recent wins at USC Scripter and WGA beating out the beloved Top Gun: Maverick. However BAFTA didn’t nominate the Screenplay and instead awarded All Quiet On The Western Front. However All Quiet On The Western Front is a war film and war films have a tough time winning Screenplay at Oscar even when they’re top-tier Picture contenders. There’s also the fact that Screenplay tends to go to a movie that is either winning Picture or has an Acting nomination and neither of the top three in this category are likely to win Picture or have an Acting nomination. But Living does have an Acting nomination not to mention a Noble Prize winner behind it; which makes that a dark horse to keep an eye on. Anyhow, this is clearly a pretty wide open race where as Original is down to just two, but I’m going with the movie that has won the most on the awards circuit, Women Talking.

My Projection: Tilts Women Talking

Upset Alert: All Quiet On The Western Front

Dark Horse(s): Living; Top Gun: Maverick

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

My Vote: Women Talking

Best Animated Feature: At the start of the awards season this seemed like this was going to be a titanic back-and-forth battle between Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and Marcel The Shell With Shoes On, but the former started pulling away mid-way through the critics circle stage and since then has become a runaway juggernaut even sweeping for the animated categories at smaller tech and crafts guilds. The beloved by the Academy del Toro has been the face of this film’s campaign, and at one point it was being talked about as a Best Picture nominee even. This is going to be one of the few absolute locks of the night.

My Projection: Safe Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Upset Alert: Marcel The Shell With Shoes On

Dark Horse(s): Puss In Boots: The Last Wish; Turning Red

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: The Sea Beast

My Vote: Marcel The Shell With Shoes On

Best Animated Short: The shorts always bust prediction ballots and this year the Animated Short race is a tight battle between the Apple TV backed children’s film The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, And The Horse and the Hulu backed more adult based story My Year Of Dicks. There seems to be a lot of goodwill and passion for the latter (and not just because of the quirky name) but the former has been pushed by Apple in a way you’d think they were competing for Best Picture again, plus it did win at BAFTA as well. Its gonna be close, but I’m siding with the one with an industry win.

My Projection: Tilts The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, And The Horse

Upset Alert: My Year Of Dicks

Dark Horse(s): Ice Merchants; The Flying Sailor

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It

My Vote: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, And The Horse

Best International Feature: Its interesting how boring the international race became this year. For a second there it seemed like this would be where RRR would build its foundation for Oscars, but then India shockingly and controversially didn’t submit it. Nevertheless critics got behind that film as their big winner for international prizes leading us to think this would be a much more wide open race at the Oscars. But when it was the industry’s turn, they went big instead for also Best Picture nominee All Quiet On The Western Front from Germany. The film dominated at BAFTA and has that Best Picture nomination, not to mention there’s a wild multiverse where it upsets in Picture, and thus this should be an absolute lock for this category. Curiously enough though, I will point out that The Hollywood Reporter‘s well-respected formula from statistician Ben Zaumer actually shows it as a much weaker than expected frontrunner in this category.

My Projection: Safe All Quiet On The Western Front

Upset Alert: Argentina 1985

Dark Horse(s): The Quiet Girl

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Close; EO

My Vote: All Quiet On The Western Front

Best Live Action Short: Another short category that is coming down to the wire seems to be Live Action Short between An Irish Goodbye and the Disney backed odds favorite Le Pullipe. I typically just go with whatever is the odds-favorite for the shorts, but I have been hearing a lot of love for the former and it did pull off the win at BAFTA so I’m risking a gamble on it.

My Projection: Tilts An Irish Goodbye

Upset Alert: Le Pullipe

Dark Horse(s): The Red Suitcase; Ivalu

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Night Ride

My Vote: Le Pullipe

Best Documentary Feature: All The Beauty And The Bloodshed may have been the critics darling and early frontrunner, but this is now a close battle between Navalny and Fire Of Love. Both films are incredibly accessible with the former being a timely thriller-like doc, and the latter being a crowd-friendly feel-good love story. Navalny won PGA and BAFTA but Fire Of Love did pull off DGA and a big ACE guild win. This is going to be a nail-bitter, but I’m leaning on the timely film given world events surrounding Russia at the moment.

My Projection: Tilts Navalny

Upset Alert: Fire Of Love

Dark Horse(s): All The Beauty And The Bloodshed; All That Breathes

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: A House Made Of Splinters

My Vote: All The Beauty And The Bloodshed

Best Documentary Short: Unlike the other two shorts where we seem to have two clear leaders, Documentary Short is an absolute free for all. The odds favorite is the Netflix backed The Elephant Whisperers, but Stranger At The Gate feels like the one with the most momentum and has names like Malala behind its aggressive campaign push. That being said watch out for How Do You Measure A Year? or The Martha Mitchell Effect to potentially come up the middle and win here given how much more competitive this shorts race is versus the other two.

My Projection: Tilts Stranger At The Gate

Upset Alert: The Elephant Whisperers

Dark Horse(s): How Do You Measure A Year?; The Martha Mitchell Effect

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Haulot

My Vote: Stranger At The Gate

Best Original Song: When awards season started we were all sure Lady Gaga’s “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick would become the sweeper in the Song race. Instead other than some critics picks (Including the two critics circles I vote for), the song has really gone nowhere and as of this writing it looks like it may be the only one not performed at the Oscars which tells me Gaga and her people are sure they’re gonna’ lose. Then you have Rhianna’s “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which seemed like just a dark horse, but after her Super Bowl halftime show its been surging to second place status. However both of those songs have been underperforming at the guilds and losing even when the frontrunner isn’t nominated. That leaves us with “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, the only nomination the film got at the Oscars. Its the odds-favorite and has swept the key precursors (when nominated) but given its the only nominee of its film I would say keep an eye for an upset including perhaps a big one in “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All At Once which did recently win at the Music Supervisors guild.

My Projection: Tilts “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)

Upset Alert: “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Dark Horse(s): “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick); “This Is A Life” (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: “Applause” (Tell It Like A Woman)

My Vote: “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)

Best Original Score: The critics darling in this race has been Babylon, as divisive as the movie is its score has been praised by even its biggest detractors. We thought it was poised to sweep when it won at Golden Globes. However other than a Hollywood Critics win the score lost to the not even Oscar eligible TAR score at Critics Choice, and lost to All Quiet On The Western Front at BAFTA. To make things more complicated with Everything Everywhere All At Once our very likely Best Picture winner, when the winner of the grand prize is nominated in Score they have a good track record of winning this category; plus when said winner is also nominated in Song (Which Everything Everywhere All At Once is) the track record is even better. And that’s before accounting for the narrative around legendary composer John Williams’ score for The Fabelmans. In other words this category is a mess and there are at least four potential winners. I’m going with the BAFTA winner given there’s cross-over vote there, but this one might end up the most unpredictable below-the-line category.

My Projection: Tilts All Quiet On The Western Front

Upset Alert: Babylon

Dark Horse(s): Everything Everywhere All At Once; The Fabelmans

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: The Banshees Of Inisherin

My Vote: Babylon

Best Sound: While I can see it winning a little more than expected, Top Gun: Maverick is only really favored in one category – Sound. Since day one when I saw the film for myself I have been bullish it will come away with the Sound Oscar. Granted it did lose at BAFTA here to All Quiet On The Western Front, but ‘Maverick’ has swept the Sound guilds and has an Editing nod on its side, which is usually correlated to what wins both categories, where as the BAFTA winner did not get the important Editing nomination. On its worse day, “the movie that saved cinema” should at the very least walk away with this Oscar.

My Projection: Leans Top Gun: Maverick

Upset Alert: All Quiet On The Western Front

Dark Horse(s): Elvis

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Avatar: The Way Of Water; The Batman

My Vote: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Editing: Since the 2008 ceremony, every winner in Best Editing has also at the very least been nominated for Sound. That history means the stats are on Top Gun: Maverick’s side in this category. However its extremely rare to get an Editing sweeper and Everything Everywhere All At Once is one of those sweepers in this category, winning Editing at literally ALL the major awards shows and guilds. Its even the one award BAFTA gave it. Its a close one, but I’m siding with the sweep over the Sound/Editing stat. If ‘Maverick’ pulls this one off, I’ll never go against that trend again, but I do think this is a very special circumstance which happens from time to time.

My Projection: Tilts Everything Everywhere All At Once

Upset Alert: Top Gun: Maverick

Dark Horse(s): Elvis

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: TAR; The Banshees Of Inisherin

My Vote: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Cinematography: Top Gun: Maverick was the undeniable critics choice in this category – but the industry doesn’t seem to have agreed. We all assumed this was a lock for the blockbuster, but it was shockingly snubbed on nominations morning. Since then the other military movie, All Quiet On The Western Front, has emerged as the odds favorite here and has been building up a streak of wins. However the American Society of Cinematographers surprised us by going with Elvis and thus giving their award to a female cinematographer for the first time ever. Now this has become a close race between the two films with the possibility of history being made at the Oscars with our first female winner here. I’m going with the war film, but I can absolutely see a scenario where Elvis is able to cross the finish line here.

My Projection: Tilts All Quiet On The Western Front

Upset Alert: Elvis

Dark Horse(s): TAR

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Bardo; Empire Of Light

My Vote: Bardo

Best Visual Effects: Its Avatar: The Way Of Water. Even the film’s biggest critics praised the visual effects. It hasn’t lost this category at any major awards. It also pulled off a historic sweep at the Visual Effects Society. This is an absolute lock for the highest grossing film of 2022.

My Projection: Safe Avatar: The Way Of Water

Upset Alert: Top Gun: Maverick

Dark Horse(s): All Quiet On The Western Front

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; The Batman

My Vote: Avatar: The Way Of Water

Best Production Design: Historically the Academy loves movies about Hollywood in this category and Babylon, even with how divisive it is and its troubles in not becoming a favorite in Original Score, has been sweeping guilds for this prize. The only reason I still rate it as “Tilts” is because it isn’t a Best Picture nominee and usually those are what wins here. So keep an eye out for a potential Elvis upset here especially if that one just starts collecting a bunch of tech wins.

My Projection: Tilts Babylon

Upset Alert: Elvis

Dark Horse(s): Avatar: The Way Of Water

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: All Quiet On The Western Front; The Fabelmans

My Vote: Avatar: The Way Of Water

Best Costume Design: There are two major reasons to expect Elvis to walk away with this Oscar. For one, its been sweeping the precursors. And second, its costume designer Catherine Martin is literally undefeated at the Oscars. That said the legendary Ruth E. Carter is at her heels with her work in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. But to maybe complicate things a little, Shirley Kurata’s work for Everything Everywhere All At Once upset Carter’s work at the Costume Designer’s Guild Awards showing the reach the Best Picture frontrunner has had. That all said I’m going with the undefeated designer.

My Projection: Leans Elvis

Upset Alert: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Dark Horse(s): Everything Everywhere All At Once

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Babylon; Mrs Harris Goes To Paris

My Vote: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Hair & Makeup: There’s a theory that whichever of the top two in this category win could be a sign of who is winning Best Actor later in the night. I understand that sentiment, but I can also see Elvis winning this even if Fraser wins that above-the-line prize. It won the key places it needed to, but I should note to my surprise The Whale is the odds favorite last I checked. Nevertheless I’m going with Elvis here.

My Projection: Leans Elvis

Upset Alert: The Whale

Dark Horse(s): The Batman

“Just Happy To Be Nominated”: All Quiet On The Western Front; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

My Vote: The Batman

And there you have it, about 5,500 words on the upcoming Academy Awards. For those tuning in let’s hope we get a great show with some great winners and good surprises. Here’s hoping Everything Everywhere All At Once finishes off the historic sweep. Otherwise you will be hearing a shout of anger and absolute shock coming all the way from Central Florida.