2023 Oscars Projections: Post-Thanksgiving, FYC Season
The midterms have come and gone, but any critic would feel like they almost haven’t with all the FYC (For Your Consideration) screeners clogging up our inboxes and mailboxes the last few weeks.
Now that we’ve passed the fall film festival season and Thanksgiving, we are in the middle of FYC season. When studios aggressively campaign to critics to get our eyeballs on their movies and attempt to get a boost from the coming month of critics’ organizations passing out nominations and awards.
In fact we’ve already started the awards season proper with the small group of awards analysts that make up the Sunset Circle Awards announcing their nominees last week, and the small budget movie minded Gotham and Independent Spirit Awards announcing their slates. In a month I myself will have to submit my personal ballot to the critics orgs I belong to, and in about two to three weeks time we’ll start seeing some heavyweight awards like the Golden Globes or the Hollywood Critics Association announcing their nominees.
This is where the major contenders establish themselves, where the pretenders get sorted out, and where one or two critical darlings could get a major push from the critics’ associations that force the Academy’s voters to not skip over a certain small movie when they’re binging their own screeners. Its in this leg of the race where we saw frontrunner get established last year with The Power Of The Dog in Picture, where pretenders faded from the conversation like C’Mon C’Mon, where Drive My Car surged into a Picture nomination thanks to all the love it got from critics, and where we started to realize that eventual winner CODA was indeed a contender.
If anything this will make predicting the likely nominees that are announced come nominations’ morning in January a little bit easier. There are still some pretty long lists out there for potential nominations; and for good reason as this year has been a much more fluid and unpredictable season than the last few years. But for now I’m very much in wait-and-see mode in figuring out just which of my current predictions prove to be placeholders, who will climb from the long lists onto the predicted lists, and which frontrunners will stay frontrunners come the turn of the year as the industry guilds begin to have their say.
I’ve started to do a weekly update of my projections over at my newsletter, but I’m keeping any in-depth analysis to my updates on here. And now a month removed from my last piece on the matter we’ve seen some significant changes in the long list; and some small but not insignificant changes to the predicted nominees from back then. For now I’m still just sticking to the eight above-the-line races, but a picture of the plausible nomination hauls is emerging. So here are my current post-Thanksgiving projections for the eight above-the-line races accompanied with some small analysis from me on each race.
Category: Best Picture
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Analysis: When I first looked at this race back in the Spring, just a few weeks after the previous Oscars, I had Babylon as the movie to beat with The Fabelmans right behind it. They switched positions after the fall film festivals, but the matchup narrative remained the same. Two movies about the love of film, one very much for adult audiences and the other for the whole family, and each directed by respected veteran Directors of different generations, duking it out for the top prize. But the last month has started to shift expectations. Babylon has screened and is getting good to great reactions, but its also received some negative reactions that tell me its not going to have the accessibility to compete with something like The Fabelmans.
Meanwhile festival darlings like Women Talking and The Banshees Of Inisherin have climbed their way to being in the top five. I actually had the former as high as number two last week over at my newsletter. There has been talk that a narrative of the Academy wanting to send a message after Dobbs could help it and/or She Said surge to a Picture win, but after the midterms proved to be a red ripple rather than a red wave, I think any potential political ramifications in the race are much more muted.
But the movie that has climbed the most is Everything Everywhere All At Once. Its taken some impressive box office legs, some big time contenders disappointing at the festivals, and the movie getting rave reviews from awards screenings, but it seems that its arguably the best film positioned (at the moment at least) to topple Spielberg’s latest. Which sets up the narrative of a matchup between two movies that couldn’t be more different and represent a dramatic difference in generational film-making. Old Hollywood VS new Hollywood. Independent arthouse studio A24 VS founding industry giant Universal Studios. A respected veteran Director VS an up-and-coming duo. I’ve been hesitant to rank EEAAO’s chances so high given that for all its great reception there has been word back that older voters haven’t been as enthusiastic, and its admittedly my personal favorite film of the year and thus I want to keep my expectations grounded. But at a certain point, especially after its great nominations’ showing with the awards orgs we’ve heard from so far, you have to admit that at the moment its the top dark horse that can pull off the upset.
Top Gun: Maverick remains very much so in the race and in my opinion is arguably a lock for the nomination by now, with Timothée Chalamet recently joining the chorus of top Academy names that have cited it as their favorite film of the year. Todd Field’s TAR is probably my lowest ranked projected nominee that I’m pretty confident will get in as Focus Features has placed it as their top priority over the less well received Armageddon Time. That leaves three spots left that I’m less sure about, but am holding on to, with She Said and The Whale as potential nominees or potential placeholders. Empire Of Light, which I had ranked as high as three at one point, is finally kicked out as reception for that movie only gets more mixed; and instead I now believe Elvis is climbing the ranks to become a very serious contender to get into Picture as word gets back on very positive word of mouth at awards screenings.
There’s no doubt in my mind that two to three of these will likely be out of my projections come nominations’ eve, but if I’m looking at other potential nominees you have to keep all the top international players in mind alongside Netflix who is fighting to get just one movie nominated here after an unusually subpar performance at the festivals. We could see another sequel join “Maverick” with Avatar: The Way Of Water and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery on the bubble of getting into my predicted ten. We could also see the fourth animated movie to get a Picture nomination with Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio which is getting campaigned by Netflix as if its their top priority at the moment. If there’s one major dark horse that I’d tell folks to not count out just yet, look to RRR which even after its baffling snub to be Indian’s international submission has had an aggressive FYC campaign with more people discovering and loving the film.
Current Projection:
01. The Fabelmans
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once
03. Women Talking
04. The Banshees of Inisherin
05. Babylon
06. Top Gun: Maverick
07. TAR
08. She Said
09. The Whale
10. Elvis
“On The Bubble”:
11. Avatar: The Way Of Water
12. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
14. Triangle Of Sadness
15. Decision To Leave
16. Till
17. The Woman King
18. RRR
19. All Quiet On The Western Front
20. Bardo
Keep An Eye Out For:
21. Living
22. Aftersun
23. Empire Of Light
24. Thirteen Lives
25. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Category: Best Director
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Analysis: The Director race has seemingly turned into Spielberg versus everyone else, and I know even some folks who are bullish on The Fabelmans getting upset in Picture that are still predicting him to get his fifth Oscar and third in this category. I don’t think he’s as unstoppable as others do. In fact I still think this is a tossup at the moment. The Director slate this year is going to be stacked and I can see a narrative forming to give Sarah Polley or even the audacious group that is The Daniels the Oscar instead depending on how their movies do elsewhere. One thing is for sure though, if The Fabelmans really is the juggernaut many are arguing it is, Spielberg MUST be winning here.
Current Projection:
01. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
02. Polley (Women Talking)
03. Chazelle (Babylon)
04. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Field (TAR)
“On The Bubble”:
06. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
07. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
08. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness)
09. Chan-Wook (Decision To Leave)
10. Del Toro (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
12. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front)
13. Iñárritu (Bardo)
14. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
15. Luhrmann (Elvis)
Category: Best Actor
Current Rating: Tilts Fraser —> A Pure Tossup
Current Analysis: Coming out of the festivals this seemed like Fraser’s race to lose and I even had this rated as a Tilts Fraser race. But between losing to Farrell at Venice, and getting a major snub from the Independent Spirit Awards, I no longer think that – This is a tossup. I still have him as my predicted winner but Butler is right at his heels as Elvis enjoys its latest surge with awards screenings. Farrell himself feels like a lock to get a nomination, but the last two slots is where things get dicey. This is not a stacked race and between Jackman being in a a badly reviewed movie and Calva being such a newcomer in a movie that will have its distractors, I can see names like Nighy or even Cruise sneaking into this one come nominations morning. We could be in the middle of the conversation on this one changing in real-time. Stay tuned.
Current Projection:
01. Fraser (The Whale)
02. Butler (Elvis)
03. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Jackman (The Son)
05. Calva (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
07. Nighy (Living)
08. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
09. Mescal (Aftersun)
10. Sandler (Hustle)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Hae-il (Decision To Leave)
12. Gimenez Cacho (Bardo)
13. Kang-ho (Broker)
14. Pope (The Inspection)
15. Driver (White Noise)
Category: Best Actress
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Analysis: Unlike Actor, Actress is unfairly stacked this year. I can come up with about ten names at least that I think are deserving of a nomination. Right now Blanchett’s performance as the titular role in TAR is the early frontrunner, with the two Michelles from the current top two Best Picture contenders right at her heels. Then you got a more muddled picture, but for now it seems like Robbie and Deadwyler are the likely last two slots but there’s some major Academy favorites right on the bubble. There’s a chance this just becomes a Blanchett sweep, and there’s a chance it becomes a 2020-2021 awards season situation where there’s literally a different winner in each leg of the race.
Current Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Williams (The Fabelmans)
03. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
04. Robbie (Babylon)
05. Deadwyler (Till)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Colman (Empire Of Light)
07. Davis (The Woman King)
08. Ackie (I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody)
09. Mara (Women Talking)
10. Kazan (She Said)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Lawrence (Causeway)
12. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande)
13. Wei (Decision To Leave)
14. Krieps (Corsage)
15. Goth (Pearl)
Category: Best Supporting Actor
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Analysis: I initially thought Gleeson was the one to beat here, but the comeback narrative of Ke Huy Quan has arguably proven to have been even bigger than Fraser’s! He already won at the Saturn awards and is the Vegas and Gold Derby favorite last I checked. He is the heart of EEAAO and even if the film underperforms I can see him winning the movie’s only Oscar. The race is a little more wide open after those two, but for now I’m favoring those in actual Picture contenders – including Brad Pitt who is facing some serious allegations from his ex wife that so far haven’t seem to hurt his awards campaigning. But I wouldn’t be too surprised if come next month this slate looks much different.
Current Projection:
01. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Dano (The Fabelmans)
04. Whishaw (Women Talking)
05. Pitt (Babylon)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
07. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
08. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
09. Teller (Top Gun: Maverick)
10. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Rylance (Bones And All)
12. Harrelson (Triangle Of Sadness)
13. Ward (Empire Of Light)
14. Hopkins (Armageddon Time)
15. Cheadle (White Noise)
Category: Best Supporting Actress
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Analysis: This seems to be between the two biggest Women Talking acting contenders for now but after seeing the film for myself I’d say Foy now has a better shot than the previously nominated Buckley. However Condon has been surging in many’s minds and she is part of another Picture contender herself. After that things get more unpredictable in my opinion and I now believe Lee-Curtis has a better shot than Hsu in being EEAAO’s Supporting Actress contender. Like Supporting Actor I can see this one changing pretty significantly as the awards season progresses.
Current Projection:
01. Foy (Women Talking)
02. Buckley (Women Talking)
03. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Mulligan (She Said)
05. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
“On The Bubble”:
06. Chau (The Whale)
07. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
08. Smart (Babylon)
09. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
10. Mbedu (The Woman King)
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
12. Hoss (TAR)
13. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
14. Union (The Inspection)
15. Dern (The Son)
Category: Best Original Screenplay
Current Rating: A Pure Tossup
Current Analysis: Original Screenplay is a knife fight this year and some of the biggest Picture contenders are in it to win it in this category. We know historically at least one non Picture contender gets in, and for now I’m going with Decision To Leave to be that one – but with Babylon toppling down a few spots I can see an opening for another movie’s script to surge past it which leaves room for a TAR or and Elvis to get in off their respective Picture nomination alone.
Current Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Fabelmans
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Babylon
05. Decision To Leave
“On The Bubble”:
06. TAR
07. Triangle Of Sadness
08. Elvis
09. The Menu
10. Aftersun
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Bardo
12. Bros
13. Nope
14. Armageddon Time
15. Cha Cha Real Smooth
Category: Best Adapted Screenplay
Current Rating: Tilts Women Talking
Current Analysis: Unlike Original, Adapted Screenplay is not the strongest of categories this year and I expect not one but two non Picture players to sneak in here. But as movies jostle for position in this category this is the one race where I still think we have an obvious favorite in Women Talking.
Current Projection:
01. Women Talking
02. She Said
03. The Whale
04. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
05. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
“On The Bubble”:
06. Till
07. The Woman King
08. Living
09. Top Gun: Maverick
10. Avatar: The Way Of Water
Keep An Eye Out For:
11. Bones And All
12. Catherine Called Birdy
13. All Quiet On The Western Front
14. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
15. White Noise
