They’re going to be announcing returns throughout the day and throughout the night and some returns will take *WEEKS*.
This is, I am told, normal.
Talk about the returns here.
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(Featured image is a picture that I took a few years back.)
Jaybird
Jaybird is Birdmojo on Xbox Live and Jaybirdmojo on Playstation's network. He's been playing consoles since the Atari 2600 and it was Zork that taught him how to touch-type. If you've got a song for Wednesday, a commercial for Saturday, a recommendation for Tuesday, an essay for Monday, or, heck, just a handful a questions, fire off an email to AskJaybird-at-gmail.com
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Guam has elected its first Republican delegate to Congress since 1993.Report
THE NEEDLE IS BACK, OH MY GOSH OH MY GOSH!!!!
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Election Betting Odds is one of the big betting sites out there.
If you are absolutely certain that X will win and Y will lose, hey. Drop some cash on it. I mean, don’t bet the *RENT* or anything. Bet this weekend’s beer money. If you lose, hey. Just don’t drink beer this weekend. If you win? Switch from Coors Light to a microbrew.Report
I’ve been monitoring this since you shared it. GOP control of the Senate was as high as 79% probability around 5pm. It’s now down to 62%.Report
And on last check, the betting markets have completely flipped. Dems with a71% probability of controlling the Senate.Report
Reporting DOS attacks have halted voting in Champaign County, IL. Long lines have people leaving. I’m not certain why the in-person voting machines require continuous internet access to operate. The Clerk’s Office had been under attack for the past month. Possible suspect, HAL from 2001.Report
One best source that reporting.Report
How are the voter registration records implemented? HAVA in 2003(?) required states to implement centralized voter registration records. If that was done using internet connections to individual polling places from a central location — eg, the Clerk’s Office — DoS only requires saturating that location’s access links with packets, even if there are no direct attacks on the computers.Report
Counties here comply with state and federal law in their own ways. I voted by filling in an optical-scan ballot in a booth and then feeding it into a machine that I presume scanned and recorded the entries. Nothing I observed needed continuous internet access, though I presume at some point the data would be uploaded to the Clerk’s Office, just not that “internet down” would be a reason that votes couldn’t be cast.Report
OK, so the issue might be that in that county one can go to any precinct to vote, and it is the printing out individualized ballots for each voter that might be causing the problems. Upload the person’s name/address to the server to determine which ballot to print out; download the ballot for printing. Where I live I think the County building is the only all-comers site.Report
We now know that the D in PD stands for Dave.Report
Is it over? What does the Needle say? What’s taking so long?Report
The needle is still warming up.
In the meantime:
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Heh… 30 second face plunge in ice water? Beating your stress into submission.Report
The needle is now live.
This is not a drill.Report
Dang, paywalled for me… needle-less tonight.Report
If you don’t feel like opening an incognito window in a browser you don’t use that often, then let me just say that you’re not missing much. It’s currently down.
“We’re looking into an issue with our estimates in Louisiana. We plan to turn the needle back on soon.”Report
They caught on to my burner browsers… need to create an account first.Report
Smartest thing I did in 2020 was not watching the results as they came in. I’m going to keep up the tradition. Have fun everyone, but remember that nothing is official.Report
I had to file a provisional ballot. I didn’t realize I signed up for mail-in ballots — I know I was getting mail-in ballots but thought that was just a holdover from 2020. So it goes.Report
Andrew will be pleased about what’s happening in Ohio.
DeWine cruising, but Vance in serious trouble. A lot of ticket splitting.Report
Vance has won and will be the sorest winner in the Senate.Report
Rs are complaining about how much money it wasted propping up his candidacy, when it should have been spent elsewhereReport
I’m at my Dad’s house in Kansas. Some “no constitutional right to abortion” signs are still up from the 2 August referendum along I-70 (the one that was supposed to win easily bit lost by 18 points).
Mercifully, we are not paying attention to election results.Report
Remarkably, the R candidate for IL governor who referred to Chicago as a hellhole had his race called for his opponent the instant the polls closed.Report
Seems like a less than optimal strategy…Report
On the other hand, he got to take the summer off from farming.Report
Texas Governor has been called. It’s the guy who isn’t Beto O’Rourke.Report
Amazing and not amazing at the same time!Report
They’re starting to call Georgia’s governor. It’s Kemp.Report
With only 19% of the vote reporting, Prop 122 is at 55.1% to pass.
That’s the magic mushroom one.Report
The narrative emerges: Not a red wave but a red trickle.Report
A red trickle in this electoral environment and with Biden ratings is a massive rebuke IF it proves a red trickle.Report
I’m willing to say that the difference between “trickle” and “not as good as it could have been” hinges on the senate. If the Democrats keep the senate, “trickle” will have legs.
If the Republicans win the senate, the argument that “you should have won two seats! You should have won three!” will ring hollow.
Have you seen the demographic numbers yet?
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If this is true, it shows Democrats having a better than average night with a substantially white electorate. I don’t see this as good news for Republicans.Report
Ben Shapiro calls it a red wedding: https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1590223660148994048?s=20&t=VJjap6uEkCVXN5Qc8cw-hAReport
Tha’ts…actually clever. I need to sit down.Report
Midnight EST and looking at the 8 uncalled Senate seats and can only see 1 or 2 R wins (UT/AK) which would give them 48… could lose all the rest. Must wins for Team Read at this point are 2 of 4: GA/PA/WI/NV. And PA is leaning Blue, WI leaning Red, GA dead heat – prob Run-off – and NV is toss-up (0% in). I’d say 50/50 Senate is split 50/50 – but that means there’s an even chance either party might get a 1 seat majority.
Imagine being an R and having your fate decided by a run-off in GA (again) with Walker as your standard bearer.Report
my twitter feed has been completely opposite of 2016. back then, Dem leaning posters were all triumphant until polls actually closed and the first returns came in – and then shock and dismay.
this time, there was Dem gnashing of teeth and otherwise dread during the day, but now that polls are closed and returns and results are coming in, most Dems are saying ‘wait, it’s not so bad so far. this win, that win’ etc.Report
Expectation management is everything. Sure, we lost X, Y, and Z, but we didn’t lose W, V, or U! And T was really close!Report
Good comp… flipping between MSNBC and Fox – Rachel Maddow is positively giddy with released tension – where Fox is wandering around wondering how Bolduc got shellacked.Report
Because he is a nutter?Report
Right… but the interesting part was hearing the Fox team starting to wonder whether the MAGA+ candidates were underperforming and what that might mean… but quickly banishing such thoughts by stating (at the time) that the races had not been called.
Team discipline was eventually reasserted as they realized that the Red Wave wasn’t happening, but there was a small period of (almost) honesty.Report
It is not perfect and not over but so far the Democrats are beating expectations in what should have been a very bad year for them and Republicans are generally underperforming in what should have been a very good year for them.Report
If this is true, the youth vote prevented a red wave: https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590190476334096386?s=20&t=huZxICq4I7NZt1lKwbfG9AReport
Traitor: https://mobile.twitter.com/MayraFlores2022/status/1590214537051242502Report
So much for the Red Wave.Report
NBC calls it for Fetterman: https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1590220564093886464?s=20&t=yy63fDPNqPuv0bgWQiVdKQ
Wisconsin still close but I am guessing RoJo ekes out a victory. Warnock in the lead in GA but likely runoff. If the youth vote holds up, there is an outside chance that the Democrats retain the House.Report
Okay. It’s bedtime.
My main thought is that this should have been a good night for Republicans but it was, at best, a mixed bag. They can point to a handful of decent wins here or there but the new margin in the House appears to be thin and the Senate may not flip.
The two main reasons for this are likely to be Dobbs and Candidate Quality.
Not too sure what can be done by Republicans about the former but the latter is an opportunity for heads to roll. We’ll see if Republicans take it. Probably not.
Which means that the 2024 nomination for prez is going to make 2016 look like 1976.Report
The margins in the House existing at all seems to be, to a large extent, the Republicans managing to gerrymander even harder than before.
This is not the typical ‘The House flips to not be the president’s party’ that normally happens. That does not appear to be happening. If the Republican flip the House, they will have basically only managed that by gerrymandering.Report
Predictions for the House are all over the map with some predicting as small as a one vote GOP majority in the House. I think the Democrats will pick up some seats out WestReport
If the Republicans win the House 218-217, the election for Speaker is going to be must-see TV. Kevin McCarthy will vote for Kevin McCarthy. Some Dems will remind us that Nancy Pelosi once promised to step down after the 2022 elections. Takes an absolute majority of members present to win.Report
Long view of the last 20 years is that R’s could have owned the senate for almost all that time if they could ever stop nominating nuts. They can’t and i don’t them stopping.Report
Longview of the last 20 years is every dirty state cleans up its act. And then votes solid republican.
Florida is no longer a swing state, and neither is Ohio.
North Carolina is unlikely to become a dirty state, with the Supreme Court fail.Report
I’m just going to go ahead and say we may all owe Saul a beer. Especially if the Senate holds.Report
I am buying him a beer regardless! the DFL took the trifecta in MN finally! that means pot legalization in MN and the end of the GOP sock puppet legalization ticket splitting parties.Report
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/minnesota-senators-signal-plans-to-advance-marijuana-legalization-in-2023-with-new-democratic-majority/Report