Election Night Open Thread: Talking about the Returns

Jaybird

Jaybird is Birdmojo on Xbox Live and Jaybirdmojo on Playstation's network. He's been playing consoles since the Atari 2600 and it was Zork that taught him how to touch-type. If you've got a song for Wednesday, a commercial for Saturday, a recommendation for Tuesday, an essay for Monday, or, heck, just a handful a questions, fire off an email to AskJaybird-at-gmail.com

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57 Responses

  1. Jaybird says:

    Guam has elected its first Republican delegate to Congress since 1993.Report

  2. Jaybird says:

    THE NEEDLE IS BACK, OH MY GOSH OH MY GOSH!!!!

    Report

  3. Jaybird says:

    Election Betting Odds is one of the big betting sites out there.

    If you are absolutely certain that X will win and Y will lose, hey. Drop some cash on it. I mean, don’t bet the *RENT* or anything. Bet this weekend’s beer money. If you lose, hey. Just don’t drink beer this weekend. If you win? Switch from Coors Light to a microbrew.Report

  4. PD Shaw says:

    Reporting DOS attacks have halted voting in Champaign County, IL. Long lines have people leaving. I’m not certain why the in-person voting machines require continuous internet access to operate. The Clerk’s Office had been under attack for the past month. Possible suspect, HAL from 2001.Report

    • Philip H in reply to PD Shaw says:

      One best source that reporting.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to PD Shaw says:

      How are the voter registration records implemented? HAVA in 2003(?) required states to implement centralized voter registration records. If that was done using internet connections to individual polling places from a central location — eg, the Clerk’s Office — DoS only requires saturating that location’s access links with packets, even if there are no direct attacks on the computers.Report

      • PD Shaw in reply to Michael Cain says:

        Counties here comply with state and federal law in their own ways. I voted by filling in an optical-scan ballot in a booth and then feeding it into a machine that I presume scanned and recorded the entries. Nothing I observed needed continuous internet access, though I presume at some point the data would be uploaded to the Clerk’s Office, just not that “internet down” would be a reason that votes couldn’t be cast.Report

        • PD Shaw in reply to PD Shaw says:

          OK, so the issue might be that in that county one can go to any precinct to vote, and it is the printing out individualized ballots for each voter that might be causing the problems. Upload the person’s name/address to the server to determine which ballot to print out; download the ballot for printing. Where I live I think the County building is the only all-comers site.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to PD Shaw says:

      We now know that the D in PD stands for Dave.Report

  5. Marchmaine says:

    Is it over? What does the Needle say? What’s taking so long?Report

  6. Pinky says:

    Smartest thing I did in 2020 was not watching the results as they came in. I’m going to keep up the tradition. Have fun everyone, but remember that nothing is official.Report

  7. Kazzy says:

    I had to file a provisional ballot. I didn’t realize I signed up for mail-in ballots — I know I was getting mail-in ballots but thought that was just a holdover from 2020. So it goes.Report

  8. John Puccio says:

    Andrew will be pleased about what’s happening in Ohio.

    DeWine cruising, but Vance in serious trouble. A lot of ticket splitting.Report

  9. Fish says:

    I’m at my Dad’s house in Kansas. Some “no constitutional right to abortion” signs are still up from the 2 August referendum along I-70 (the one that was supposed to win easily bit lost by 18 points).

    Mercifully, we are not paying attention to election results.Report

  10. Slade the Leveller says:

    Remarkably, the R candidate for IL governor who referred to Chicago as a hellhole had his race called for his opponent the instant the polls closed.Report

  11. Jaybird says:

    Texas Governor has been called. It’s the guy who isn’t Beto O’Rourke.Report

  12. Jaybird says:

    With only 19% of the vote reporting, Prop 122 is at 55.1% to pass.

    That’s the magic mushroom one.Report

  13. Jaybird says:

    The narrative emerges: Not a red wave but a red trickle.Report

    • North in reply to Jaybird says:

      A red trickle in this electoral environment and with Biden ratings is a massive rebuke IF it proves a red trickle.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird says:

      Midnight EST and looking at the 8 uncalled Senate seats and can only see 1 or 2 R wins (UT/AK) which would give them 48… could lose all the rest. Must wins for Team Read at this point are 2 of 4: GA/PA/WI/NV. And PA is leaning Blue, WI leaning Red, GA dead heat – prob Run-off – and NV is toss-up (0% in). I’d say 50/50 Senate is split 50/50 – but that means there’s an even chance either party might get a 1 seat majority.

      Imagine being an R and having your fate decided by a run-off in GA (again) with Walker as your standard bearer.Report

  14. Kolohe says:

    my twitter feed has been completely opposite of 2016. back then, Dem leaning posters were all triumphant until polls actually closed and the first returns came in – and then shock and dismay.

    this time, there was Dem gnashing of teeth and otherwise dread during the day, but now that polls are closed and returns and results are coming in, most Dems are saying ‘wait, it’s not so bad so far. this win, that win’ etc.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Kolohe says:

      Expectation management is everything. Sure, we lost X, Y, and Z, but we didn’t lose W, V, or U! And T was really close!Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to Kolohe says:

      Good comp… flipping between MSNBC and Fox – Rachel Maddow is positively giddy with released tension – where Fox is wandering around wondering how Bolduc got shellacked.Report

      • Saul Degraw in reply to Marchmaine says:

        Because he is a nutter?Report

        • Marchmaine in reply to Saul Degraw says:

          Right… but the interesting part was hearing the Fox team starting to wonder whether the MAGA+ candidates were underperforming and what that might mean… but quickly banishing such thoughts by stating (at the time) that the races had not been called.

          Team discipline was eventually reasserted as they realized that the Red Wave wasn’t happening, but there was a small period of (almost) honesty.Report

  15. Saul Degraw says:

    It is not perfect and not over but so far the Democrats are beating expectations in what should have been a very bad year for them and Republicans are generally underperforming in what should have been a very good year for them.Report

  16. LeeEsq says:

    So much for the Red Wave.Report

  17. Saul Degraw says:

    NBC calls it for Fetterman: https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1590220564093886464?s=20&t=yy63fDPNqPuv0bgWQiVdKQ

    Wisconsin still close but I am guessing RoJo ekes out a victory. Warnock in the lead in GA but likely runoff. If the youth vote holds up, there is an outside chance that the Democrats retain the House.Report

  18. Jaybird says:

    Okay. It’s bedtime.

    My main thought is that this should have been a good night for Republicans but it was, at best, a mixed bag. They can point to a handful of decent wins here or there but the new margin in the House appears to be thin and the Senate may not flip.

    The two main reasons for this are likely to be Dobbs and Candidate Quality.

    Not too sure what can be done by Republicans about the former but the latter is an opportunity for heads to roll. We’ll see if Republicans take it. Probably not.

    Which means that the 2024 nomination for prez is going to make 2016 look like 1976.Report

    • DavidTC in reply to Jaybird says:

      The margins in the House existing at all seems to be, to a large extent, the Republicans managing to gerrymander even harder than before.

      This is not the typical ‘The House flips to not be the president’s party’ that normally happens. That does not appear to be happening. If the Republican flip the House, they will have basically only managed that by gerrymandering.Report

      • Saul Degraw in reply to DavidTC says:

        Predictions for the House are all over the map with some predicting as small as a one vote GOP majority in the House. I think the Democrats will pick up some seats out WestReport

        • If the Republicans win the House 218-217, the election for Speaker is going to be must-see TV. Kevin McCarthy will vote for Kevin McCarthy. Some Dems will remind us that Nancy Pelosi once promised to step down after the 2022 elections. Takes an absolute majority of members present to win.Report

  19. Greg In Ak says:

    Long view of the last 20 years is that R’s could have owned the senate for almost all that time if they could ever stop nominating nuts. They can’t and i don’t them stopping.Report

    • Christy Knoeb in reply to Greg In Ak says:

      Longview of the last 20 years is every dirty state cleans up its act. And then votes solid republican.
      Florida is no longer a swing state, and neither is Ohio.
      North Carolina is unlikely to become a dirty state, with the Supreme Court fail.Report

  20. InMD says:

    I’m just going to go ahead and say we may all owe Saul a beer. Especially if the Senate holds.Report