The Inherent Weakness of the Joe Biden Presidency

Eric Medlin

History instructor. Writer. Rising star in the world of affordable housing.

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122 Responses

  1. Brandon Berg says:

    TFW Santa brings mediocre policy even though you very clearly asked for terrible policy.Report

  2. Dark Matter says:

    If you have to point to the Taliban taking over a country as a success for a US President, then you have a problem.

    For some of this, Biden is clearly catching flack for unrealistic expectations. Team Blue has 50 Senators, they don’t always agree. Inflation is a pain to deal with… although it’s reasonably clear that the gov has made it somewhat worse.

    Figuring out how good a President is doing is very hard. There’s an army on the Left/Right trying to spin it so he has more/less responsibility and it’s unclear how much influence he has. Biden seems to have less of a cheering squad than Obama, and it’s hard to picture Trump doing anything other than angry ranting, but direct measurements of effectivity are rare and not obvious.

    However when he took office I told my friends that the way to measure how competent he was compared to Trump was whether we got a new vaccine for Covid within a year after he took office. For all the talk on how Trump slowed down the development by not taking the disease seriously in it’s early days, he got it done in 9 months.

    The Scientists who developed the vaccine weren’t fired after it was created. Everyone involved should be a LOT more experienced now than before with their fancy new technologies. Far as I can tell, the big (& only) difference is the FDA is under new management.Report

  3. Philip H says:

    I haven’t read any critiques of the necessity for the withdrawal from the left, just a lot of critiques about how we never should have been there, we never should have nation built, and we exited poorly. That last was guaranteed to happen no matter what.

    I still maintain the “problem” is both one of numbers and one of messaging. Democrats – as a party – spent too long not bothering to counter Republican advances in the states, particularly state legislatures and governor’s mansions. This left them with little bench depth, a game they have only recently begun to reverse engineer. So when Biden came to an evenly divided Senate, he found two senators with outsized centerist to rightist influence. and so he had to scale back. More Democrats in the Senate takes that pressure off, and with Mitch McConnell noting that “candidate quality” may keep him minority leader, holding the Senate is a better deal.

    The messaging issue is one I’ve long flogged, under the heading of “Democrats aren’t fighters.” There was a little righteous anger when Trump was impeached, but not by anyone in an identified leadership position. Chuck Schumer may be an effective strategist and legislator, but he’s got no fire in his belly that he transmits verbally. Ditto the President. Obama didn’t have much of one, and Clinton’s fire was tempered by a series of circumstances that, frankly, he should have seen coming. Republicans meanwhile keep plodding along, throwing fireballs without a care in the world. They project an old fashioned (and IMO toxic) version of STRENGTH with their rhetoric. And people, desperate for a “Win” eat it up.

    Even now, the WH remains largely silent on the doxing of FBI agents by the former President. Were the tables turned, Republicans would have no qualms about seeking to publicly humiliate at every turn.Report

    • LeeEsq in reply to Philip H says:

      The Democratic Party has to run in diverse districts and while a fighter like Fetterman can work in Pennsylvania, he would bomb terribly in a suburban district of a major metropolitan area as unprofessional. AOC works in her district in New York be would fair horribly in Abigail Spanberger’s Virginia district and vice versa. I’m not really even sure whether there is a universal definition of what it means to be a fighter. Does Fetterman’s trolling of Oz count as fighting or is a more woke-activist style of truth to power speaking fighting? Many Democratic voters didn’t find Sanders to be a fighter, they saw him as a loudmouth.Report

      • Philip H in reply to LeeEsq says:

        Fetterman would work in Mississippi, far better then the democrats who keep not being Benny Thompson and living in Thompson’s district. Sanders is a loud mouth – but he backs that up with significant legislative proposals and no small amount of visible passion.Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to Philip H says:

          Would he? He might do better than average but I doubt he will win. Fetterman does well in Pennsylvania because it is a purple state with two large and diverse metro areas and some of the few remaining moderate Republican suburbs. That being said, I think Lee’s points are good.Report

        • LeeEsq in reply to Philip H says:

          Seconding my brother on this. I think that the whites of Mississippi are more reactionary in their politics than the whites of Pennsylvania. Whether Fetterman or a Fetterman like candidate could get enough of the white vote along with the black vote to get passed the finishing line is debatable. Tim Ryan seems uniquely well suited for Ohio in that all-American way and Vance is just as bad as Oz but is still doing better than Oz because of Ohio’s darker shade of red.Report

          • Philip H in reply to LeeEsq says:

            Fetterman is the Anti-Democrats democrat. He’s tattooed, brash, plays ball on the street, and is unapologetic in both his patriotism and his politics. Those kind of candidates would do far better here – where even the white elites style themselves “working class” they the moderate non-confrontational whites they ran out of politics, to say nothing of the well educated balck men the Mississippi democratic party is now running to fail.Report

            • Saul Degraw in reply to Philip H says:

              I also have to add that appearance of a fighter does not necessarily mean someone is going to be effective or good. A lot of people think that picking the biggest asshole is a good litigation strategy. Pelosi and Schumer are a lot more effective than people give them credit for but people think politics should work like genie wishes and do not realize that it takes a lot of consensus building to do stuff in a 50 person “majority” with a homogeneous group.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Saul Degraw says:

                I also have to add that appearance of a fighter does not necessarily mean someone is going to be effective or good.

                Best summation of Trump I’ve seen in along time, his potential criminality not withstanding.Report

      • Pinky in reply to LeeEsq says:

        I propose a rule that the Fetterman / Oz contest shouldn’t be used as an example of anything.Report

        • Marchmaine in reply to Pinky says:

          I propose that if the Republicans end up losing the Senate owing to an Oz and a Walker it is an example of something. And if they keep the Senate despite an Oz and a Walker it is also an example of something. So I guess I’m going to claim that I knew it all all along, just not exactly which it.Report

    • Dark Matter in reply to Philip H says:

      The messaging issue is one I’ve long flogged, under the heading of “Democrats aren’t fighters.”

      What would you like them to do?

      Even now, the WH remains largely silent on the doxing of FBI agents by the former President. Were the tables turned, Republicans would have no qualms about seeking to publicly humiliate at every turn.

      Publicly humiliating Trump has been tried by a large number of people many times. In practice this means putting a spot light on him. Somehow it doesn’t seem to work as well as you’d think.Report

  4. LeeEsq says:

    Considering that the Republicans are probably not going to get the Senate for running extreme and inept candidates and anger over Dobbs and might not even capture the House in a year where the Democratic Party should face a blood bath, Biden’s presidency is doing fine.Report

  5. InMD says:

    I don’t really get the continued harping on Afghanistan. The optics sucked but getting out was the popular position (to say nothing of it being the obviously right thing to do) and has been for over a decade.

    Otherwise I think the Biden admin is doing about as well as can be expected under existing circumstances. There was no super majority to enact a progressive’s most ambitious wish list. Part of the reason Biden won the election in the first place is because he didn’t embarrass himself like so many other candidates did in the primary with obviously implausible promises with little popular support. The other D candidates who still have a brain (Klobuchar, Buttigieg, etc.) got out of the way, as they should have, and now we have a solidly, plodding along government, as opposed to the absolute insanity another 4 years of Trump would have been.

    Is that enough in a world of hyper partisan, extra constitutional warfare and the ongoing crisis of legitimacy effecting governments all over the West, and possibly ours the worst? I don’t know. But I will say the benefits of Bidenism, that being a government that is at least functional enough to get some modest, but nevertheless important things done is criminally underrated.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

      Here is my problem with Afghanistan:

      It fell in a matter of days. Not weeks. Days.

      “That’s not Biden’s fault!”
      “I am not saying that it was Biden’s fault. I’m saying that we were there for 20 years and it fell the second we left. What the hell were we doing there for 20 years?”
      “Trump was president during those 20 years!”

      How many lies were told about Afghanistan to people in power? Who was in charge of actually doing stuff over there?

      I mean, if you asked me “Jaybird, how long will it take Afghanistan to fall after we leave?”, I’d have answered weeks and maybe months, depending.

      But it was days. How was it only days?

      What a huge and massive failure it was.

      “But that’s not Biden’s fault.”
      “I’m not talking about Biden. But sure, it wasn’t his fault.”Report

      • Philip H in reply to Jaybird says:

        Well we ARE talking about Biden so . . . .Report

      • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

        There is a certain buck stopping with Biden logic that I grudgingly accept. My belief is that for all the hand-wringing, Afghanistan was/is an incredibly low salience issue to the voting public. However, to the extent he is asked to account for it, he should have to account for it because it happened on his watch. To date he has not done that.

        At the same time I struggle to lay the blame at the feet of the guy who finally did the right thing, especially when the 2 administrations preceding his lacked the courage to do what has obviously needed to be for over a decade. It was a massive 20 year failure of policy with the fingerprints of not only elected officials but also the permanent military and intelligence bureaucracy, none of whom are ever going to be held accountable for any of it. So Biden loses a couple token points but I’m not hanging the full weight around his neck.Report

        • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

          I’m down with the whole “buck stops here” thing but it seems to me that the failure is on the part of the people who were lying to Biden about the state of Afghanistan (and lying to Trump and lying to Obama and maybe even lying to Bush).

          If Biden has a major failure related to Afghanistan, it’s in the failure to go after the people who have spent the last 10 or more years lying.

          The pullout was the pullout. We were holding a wolf by the ears and moving from that state to “no longer holding a wolf by the ears” was never going to turn out with particularly strong optics. I don’t hold that against Biden.

          The whole “what have we been doing for the last two decades?” thing?

          He should be in charge of asking that.Report

          • Damon in reply to Jaybird says:

            No one wants to ask that question. No one wants the answer. Well, everyone in gov’t or the military that is. The public might want that answer, but they aren’t important.Report

            • InMD in reply to Damon says:

              The messed up reality is that there is no incentive to spend any political capital whatsoever on asking those questions. And as much as I’d like to think the public is clamoring for it (I know I’d love some answers) I just don’t think that’s the case. To me the only option for people who care about this kind of crap is to always ask for more but also try to get really comfortable with taking what we can get.Report

          • Philip H in reply to Jaybird says:

            The whole “what have we been doing for the last two decades?” thing?

            He should be in charge of asking that.

            Bush was in charge of asking that after Iraq.
            Nixon was in charge of asking that after Vietnam.
            Eisenhower was in charge of asking that after Korea.

            How’d that turn out?Report

            • Jaybird in reply to Philip H says:

              Say what you will about Eisenhower, he got an Armistice.

              The fall of Saigon was April 1975. Nixon resigned the year prior. Ford, for some reason, was distracted by other things.

              Luckily, we had a whole bunch of Vietnam movies in the years that followed to help us process.

              As for Bush… yeah. Is Bush the measuring stick now? I guess he is.Report

              • Fish in reply to Jaybird says:

                It’d be great if someone would ask these questions and then listen to the answers and really incorporate them. Maybe we can avoid the next Korea/Vietnam/Somalia/Iraq/Afghanistan/…
                I want to say that our foreign policy had a significant part to play in creating the messes which resulted in conflicts we eventually had to intervene in and receive our inevitable public wet-towel-snapping in the ass. Eisenhower maybe had something to say about entanglements and complexes and stuff.Report

        • Mike Schilling in reply to InMD says:

          The Trump deal with the Taliban was very clearly “Don’t cause any trouble until after the election, and then we’ll go quietly.” It’s no mystery why this resulted in a collapse of morale and in short order the government losing everything but Kabul.Report

          • InMD in reply to Mike Schilling says:

            The government in Kabul was a sinkhole of grift and corruption and the ANA never once showed itself to he an effective force over 20 years of occupation. No one was ever going to fight for it without US bribes and air and special forces support. If you think they would have done materially better on their own at some other point, no matter what Trump did, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.Report

            • North in reply to InMD says:

              Ehhhh… it’s possible that absent Trump the government in Kabul might have held out for the expected timeframe of months-years instead of the days that it did hold out. But Trump did cut that deal, it wasn’t exactly a secret and the Taliban spent that time basically marching through the corrupt org structure of the Afghan government saying “your options are cut a deal to surrender to us when the Yankees leave and live or fight and lose after some period of time and then die along with your families. Oh and we’re making the same offer to all your colleagues and the more of you who defect the worse it’ll be for the ones who don’t.” It was a perfect prisoners dilemma.

              It would have been fabulous if Bidens people could have anticipated just how bad the implosion would be and could have planned to basically focus their all on securing the airport and preventing the two media narratives that really hurt him (people falling off the airplanes and the thirteen dead soldiers) but the same institutions that failed to develop an Afghan state were utterly incapable of admitting the same so Biden ended up flying in blind. The Biden peeps thought they were being pessimistic, they just had no idea how badly the goat had been fished.Report

              • InMD in reply to North says:

                Certainly we’ll never know for sure but from what’s come out I struggle to imagine it being more than marginally better. From what I understand significant numbers of the Afghan army existed on paper only, well before the Trump deal. Resources were constantly disappearing, loyalties were divided on the best of days, and the people populating the governing institutions we set up were on the take and never reliable.

                And even all of that aside Trump arguably had a mandate to do what he did. Whether he would have blinked at the last second had he been re-elected is anyone’s guess. However, messy and hamfisted as it was I’m just not convinced there was some perfect way, as Jaybird put it, to let go of the wolf we had by the ears.Report

      • Damon in reply to Jaybird says:

        It happened under his admin. He’s to “blame”. He’s to blame for the economy too. Presidents take the blame when stuff they inherit falls apart. They take the credit when stuff they inherit goes well. Been so for decades.Report

        • Philip H in reply to Damon says:

          Gas prices have been dropping every day for over two months. Care to link to anywhere where he’s getting credit for that that matches the blame he got for them rising?Report

          • Damon in reply to Philip H says:

            That would require me to pay attention to a lot more media than I care to. I’m sure he’s gotten the credit SOMEWHERE.Report

            • Fish in reply to Damon says:

              Instead, just amuse yourself with how all the Joe Biden “I did that” stickers on gas pumps are playing now that prices are coming down.Report

              • Michael Cain in reply to Fish says:

                Unfortunately, what people are going to compare the current prices to is that brief moment in time under Trump when the price dropped below $2/gal, and I could fill my small car for less than $20 total. And they’re not going to remember that what it took to get to that was peak Covid panic.

                I’m an oldster, and still occasionally lament the long stretch in the 90s when I couldn’t spend $20 on a tank of gas for my Civic no matter how empty it was.Report

              • Damon in reply to Fish says:

                I don’t live in a region of the country that has people of the political mind to put those stickers on gas pumps. It’s a very blue state.Report

      • North in reply to Jaybird says:

        The question “Why doesn’t the President incinerate their prospects of getting anything done for the rest of their term and bury their re-election prospects by pursuing the vested interests in the national security and civil service bureaucracy to call them to account for past failures.” Is as self answering now as it was when you asked it about why Obama didn’t go after the same people (and also prosecute the Bush admin people) over torture when he got into office.Report

      • Slade the Leveller in reply to Jaybird says:

        Eh, who cares? We never should have been there in the first place, and anyone that was paying attention knew the Afghan government was a fiction propped up by the U.S. military.

        I haven’t given that place a single thought since we left, and I dare say if you asked 100 people on the street if they’d considered Afghanistan at all recently, 100 people would say no.Report

        • It means that the next time we go someplace, the same inept people will be tasked with lying to the people in charge.

          And that’s bad.Report

          • Dark Matter in reply to Jaybird says:

            We pulled out 20 years into a 100 year project. Success isn’t an option when you do that. For perspective, we’re still in Japan and Germany.

            Similarly, when you insist that you succeed in 10 years and fire anyone who dares tell you that 10 is unrealistic, then you’re putting in charge people that either don’t know 10 is unrealistic or who are lying to you.Report

            • Philip H in reply to Dark Matter says:

              For perspective, we’re still in Japan and Germany.

              Both Japan and Germany were closer to the US in terms of structure, economy and culture then Afghanistan. Both countries had lost a significant war and both needed the US to rebuild to return to being part of the first world economy. Both became trading partners with significant markets. Both can now stand on their own economically, and probably militarily.

              NONE of that is true about Afghanistan.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Philip H says:

                Culturally I’d say Germany was decently similar but Japan was an emperor cult. Their closest equiv would probably be modern North Korea.

                However, they were very unified (as opposed to individual’s being loyal to their clans). They were also an island making them both highly isolated and accessible to the US.

                Afghanistan also has this massive culture of corruption by our standards. So American troops can visit a tiny village, make promises for roads and schools, walk away thinking that they’ve done good, and the governor then pockets the money making us look like liars.

                If we were going to be in charge and get it done in a small amount of time (20 years), then we need to be strong enough there that we can give orders to the local government. That’s basically the argument that the War in Iraq was a massive resource drain and prevented quick success leaving us with a long term slog.

                Having said all that, it’s still very unclear whether we’ll end up back there within the next 20 years. Thus far the more sane Taliban has been a thing on paper only. They’re still shielding AQ, they’re still refusing to let women have jobs or educations.

                Coin flip chance that when their ideology fails, they’ll start virtue signaling by doing things like terrorism in the us.Report

              • Michael Cain in reply to Philip H says:

                Both of them could provide room for large US military bases in really convenient places for facing off against the two big Cold War opponents. Bases which are still in use after almost 80 years. Afghanistan isn’t strategically located, and its landlocked status greatly limits the kind of military deployments that can be put there.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

      My one observation on Afghanistan and why it is/was a good policy decision that yields negative political gains is not that the pullout was bad strategically (it wasn’t), not even that the pullout was bad tactically (it was)… it’s that Biden didn’t follow-up his good Strategic decision by punishing the bad tactical execution.

      Now, it doesn’t exactly surprise me that Biden didn’t follow-up – for lots of reasons, chief of which Biden is a pure institutionalist who doesn’t do ‘shake-ups’ – but not doing the follow-up work of ending the careers of a few high-profile Generals is the kind of leadership that projects incompetence even if doing the right thing.Report

      • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

        I think you’re right in principle but I also think it would be a lot to expect of any president, even one of a higher caliber. I also have my doubts about the upside, especially on an issue everyone would rather just went away, and which by not saying much about it, mostly has. Which is of course also a huge indictment of where our politics are! So while ‘what did anyone expect’ is a terrible answer it might also be the best possible answer.

        Anyway I also just think people should be unsurprised by what amounts to a failure of the executive branch to self police. No one self polices well, in any walk of life. Our constitution is founded on that very insight. So Biden can and should take his lumps as commander in chief but one also has to ask where Congress and its oversight role and power of the purse was with all this. Nowhere. And if we’re talking about big important principles I think that’s the much more profound failure and raises a lot of uncomfortable questions much larger than the specific issue of Afghanistan, withdrawal from.Report

        • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

          Fair points? But surely you start to see how various concerns about the health of our institutions don’t lend themselves to a pure institutionalist?

          If the institutions are beyond repair by the institutionalists… at best it means that faction will fall behind; or, at worst, it’s ancien regime reforming the tax code a’la Necker.Report

          • Philip H in reply to Marchmaine says:

            If the institutions are beyond repair by the institutionalists

            This presupposes the institutions are in fact broken, and that a consensus can be reached on repair.Report

            • Marchmaine in reply to Philip H says:

              I don’t think it presupposes that, I think the question revolves around the point InMD brings up that the institutions are resistant to reformation and that no-one really has the will or power to initiate reform.

              Circular is circular; but circular starts to point at the possibility that repair isn’t possible. It doesn’t pre-suppose it… it asks why all the defenses are circular.Report

              • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

                I don’t think it’s totally hopeless. More that it’s a never ending game that’s unlikely to ever end in the specific and definitive way I think it should and so I adjust my expectations accordingly.

                I accept that even if tomorrow Biden made an example out of the chief brass and fired everyone they could find left with some culpability, from the pentagon to the state department to the CIA, I’d still expect people who agree with me to have make the case all over again in the future.

                Where I see a positive sign is that even if the government hasn’t learned exactly I think the the voting public has become more skeptical of the case for military intervention, nation building, etc. That resulted in Obama being unable to get authorization for a major intervention in Syria because it was clear Congress wasn’t on board. Trump didn’t start any new kinetic military actions and was remarkably restrained about those ongoing. Ditto Biden (so far). There’s now a chorus of voices online that didn’t exist cira 2001 across partisan lines that are deeply critical of the neocon/liberal interventionism philosophy and its mindless sycophants in the media.

                So call me a stubborn optimist, but I don’t think all is lost.Report

          • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

            I will certainly and in earnest nod along with you on that point but I will also take my half loaf. Or even quarter loaf for that matter.Report

      • Koz in reply to Marchmaine says:

        My one observation on Afghanistan and why it is/was a good policy decision that yields negative political gains is not that the pullout was bad strategically (it wasn’t), not even that the pullout was bad tactically (it was)… it’s that Biden didn’t follow-up his good Strategic decision by punishing the bad tactical execution.

        This is at least a little bit uninformed. You can fire some generals for window dressing if you want, but this strategy good/tactics bad idea is a bad take. The mistakes that lead to the debacle were Biden’s, and the generals did pretty well in cleaning up after him.Report

  6. Saul Degraw says:

    Conventional pundit wisdom on a Monday morning. Biden is workhorse, not a showhorse. Our media is way too primed to award shoehorses. This miss Trump’s blow hard in the bar tweets from 5:00 a.m. because it made their day and work easy. Report on Trump being outrageous, report on some snarky tweets in reply, call it a day and go home. Biden is actually trying to enact policy and that requires explaining things. So boring, so hard.Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      I’m thinking of the 2020 primaries where people like Bernie and Warren and Klobuchar were getting all the press, while the media ignored Biden as the tired old has-been.
      Until the Elevator Lady and the South Carolina primary.

      And it was notable how openly hostile the media were to the Afghan pullout, while the public largely doesn’t care. Even among the Republican opposition, we aren’t seeing Afghanistan as an applause line, and no Republican is demanding we go back in.

      What the media thinks and what the rank and file think are often wildly disconnected.Report

      • North in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        Yeah, very much this. The “mainstream media” has an ideology of its own. There is no small overlap with liberal ideology but it’s far from the perfect circle that exists between ring wing media and the right wing.

        And they’ll never ever forgive Biden for taking away their Afghanistan sandbox.Report

        • InMD in reply to North says:

          If one were inclined to do a real accounting of what went wrong Congress is probably the right body to do it, not the executive branch. Of course the incentives aren’t really there for that either no matter who is in control of either branch of government.Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

          “Socially liberal, economically conservative” is a subset of voters that is very small in number but punches above their weight often. Among the most successful pundits, they seem to at least be a large plurality. People like Thomas Freidman who hasn’t updated his economic outlook since the Clinton administration and thinks Davos is the best time of the year.Report

          • North in reply to Saul Degraw says:

            That’s basically a major portion of the Republican elite too. The “taxes must be cut or prevented from being increased no matter what” folks who pay much of the GOP’s apparatuses and many/most of the brain trusts on the right.Report

            • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

              Except the social liberalism part sure. There are some among them who are indifferent to social politics but a lot of them are true believers in social conservatism.

              The real base of the GOP is what the Brits would call the Shopocracy. A more doctrinaire Marxist would call them the petit bourgeois. They are wealthy through fields like wholesale and local car dealerships. They might or might not have university educations. Elsie Stefanik and Ron DeSantis are prime examples of children from the Shopocracy class getting elite educations. I have a theory, and it is mine, that the shopcracy hates upper-middle class bougie-boho liberals with professional jobs most of all especially because universities and among university grads is the one area that they really cannot control. OAN’s founder was a silent gen high school dropout that managed to get wealthy.

              A right-wing billionaire just gave Leonard Leo a 1.6 billion dollar dark money gift. The Mercers are also true believing social conservatives as in the packing company heir that underwrites the Federalist. Social conservatism is not a front for the rubes.Report

              • North in reply to Saul Degraw says:

                Oh yes, I did say a major portion- not all. But the rich theocrats are a LOT thinner in number than the rich libertines. The 1.6 billion donor, for instance, is a rich libertine- not a theocrat as far as I can see. He wants taxes low (regulations too but it’s mostly about taxes) no matter what and if that comes freighted with some social conservativism, oh well. The Mercers OTOH are wealthy theocrats.Report

              • LeeEsq in reply to North says:

                The wealthy libertarians seem rather content at letting the social reactionaries do whatever they want to do. Plus many of the Libertarians with actually socially liberal beliefs are leaving the Libertarian Party in droves because it has taken a Rothbard-Rockwell turn recently.Report

              • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

                There is a whole in effect thing which counts. Giving 1.6 billion to Leonard Leo makes you a social reactionary in effect, if not intentReport

              • North in reply to Saul Degraw says:

                For sure, I never claimed they were opponents of social conservatives. But they give their money to people who’ll cut taxes, if those people happen to be theocrats then they don’t care but absent the tax cutting promises the theocratic groups don’t get a dime from them.Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        During the primaries lots of the very online ignored Biden too. At the other blog, the posters alternated between dismissing Biden as an old white man has-been who was handsy and having to take Biden seriously until Biden cinched the nomination.Report

  7. Marchmaine says:

    Guys, Biden is a spent force. He’s a talisman that probably doesn’t have enough juice left for the next round of mystical tribal dances we call elections. Plan accordingly.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to Marchmaine says:

      I dissent. This is like the series of media posts where they went wild that Trump only had the commitment from 49 percent of likely GOP primary voters. Democratic voters go back to Biden if given a hypothetical Biden v. Trump part 2 for 2024.Report

      • Marchmaine in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        I don’t think it’s a polls issue specifically. I genuinely don’t think Biden has it in him… physically or mentally. Trump’s an idiot, but he’s a hale idiot.Report

        • Philip H in reply to Marchmaine says:

          We have no idea how hale or not he is . . . other then well paid pronouncements about being in the best shape ever.Report

          • Saul Degraw in reply to Philip H says:

            I’d consider myself very lucky if I had Joe Biden’s phyisque at 78.Report

            • Philip H in reply to Saul Degraw says:

              I meant Trump . . . we know roughly how well Biden is doing healthwise. And Yes, if I have Biden’s physique at his age I will be very satisfied.Report

            • Dark Matter in reply to Saul Degraw says:

              Biden is 79. He’ll be 80 during the reelection. He’d end his term being 85 or so.

              My retired parents are now not the people that raised me. I would say he’s at about 85% and she’s at 65%… and that’s very good for that age.

              And my expectation is age related dementia is a big part of Trump’s issues.Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Dark Matter says:

                Back when, I’d hear Trumpists make absolutely valid points about corruption, both the overt kind and elite-backscratching, inability to solve the problems of the working class in a de-industrializing America, the government’s responsiveness to the rich instead of the working class, and so forth, and I would always ask: “And the answer to all this is – – – Donald Trump?”
                And the answer to Joe Biden’s having lost a step is – – – Donald Trump?Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to CJColucci says:

                If you view gov as a big part of the problem (witness the lack of a new vaccine), then hiring the equiv of a bulldozer is the thing to do.

                I think he’s the only President we’ve ever had who has followed through on his promise of reducing the impact of the gov and paring back it’s massive army of bureaucrats and regulations.

                The Team Blue equiv would be someone who runs on making gov more efficient. To evaluate which programs are having a good impact, a bad impact, and redirect the resources from the later to the former.

                However as far as I can tell, Team Blue views ever dollar spent by the gov as having an equal impact and the gov can’t be reduced by even a dollar without the wheels coming off.Report

    • Koz in reply to Marchmaine says:

      Guys, Biden is a spent force. He’s a talisman that probably doesn’t have enough juice left for the next round of mystical tribal dances we call elections. Plan accordingly.

      Yeah, this. I tend not to agree with most of what Eric writes, but I am more agreement with the OP here. The caveat being that Biden’s low approval ratings is not fundamentally a media issue.

      Biden has low approval ratings because he’s a low-energy, ignorant, mentally deficient doofus, and the whole world sees it.

      This is where a lot of the optimistic Demo plans have or will fail. At some crucial step, they’re going to depend on Biden being somebody other than who he is.Report

      • North in reply to Koz says:

        When I look at what the Dems, under Biden, have accomplished in policy, passed laws and political accomplishments and then look at your critique I can’t help but wonder what more you’d expect them to have accomplished under a Biden who was, by your appraisal, high-energy, informed and mentally average?Report

        • Philip H in reply to North says:

          And considering the last guy had low approval ratings and was a medium energy, ignorant, mentally deficient doofus whom the world openly mocked …Report

        • Koz in reply to North says:

          When I look at what the Dems, under Biden, have accomplished in policy, passed laws and political accomplishments and then look at your critique I can’t help but wonder what more you’d expect them to have accomplished under a Biden who was, by your appraisal, high-energy, informed and mentally average?

          Well, that depends on the direction you’d want him to take. He could flaky way-Left, he could be establishmentarian anti-GOP hard Left (what a number of people here want), he could be Right/center-Right (what I want), he could be GOP-friendly moderate center Left (what he tries to do and what he would do if he still had his marbles).

          The point being, he is none of these things really, because as the most powerful executive in America, he has very little influence, and for the most part is just catching up to whatever happens in the rest of the world.

          As far as legislation goes, there’s been the virus relief package, the hard infrastructure bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act (smh). These are the sort of thing he’d probably be doing if he were much younger, but I don’t think they’re going to have a whole of substantive impact, and because he’s such a passive personality, the GOP is going to get all of the political benefit from the culture wars and intra-Left turmoil.Report

          • North in reply to Koz says:

            Sure and that’s my point. The 117th congress has been remarkably productive and highly accomplished (from a left but not far left point of view), and astronomically more accomplished than any Republican trifecta since, what, Bush II? (and almost everything Bush II accomplished was an unmitigated disaster). And that’s all been under Bidens’ watch. So if he’s an geriatric ineffectual dotard, as you allege, than what exactly is the rights’ excuse that they’re getting their collective posteriors handed to them by such a President?Report

            • Koz in reply to North says:

              We don’t need excuses, we’re winning. By a lot.

              The stuff this Congress passed doesn’t really stack up as substantively good, or important or even politically beneficial.

              Basically the main thing the Left and Biden have accomplished over the past six months or so is that they have stuff to talk about instead of getting beat over the head every day by inflation and Afghanistan.

              And a lot of those things were just events that Biden had nothing to do with, like the SCOTUS decision on abortion and Jan 6 hearings.Report

              • North in reply to Koz says:

                So… the last two Democratic administrations elected this century have moved policy in leftward directions by, well, a lot (historically a lot for Obama). And the last two GOP administrations were respectively historically ineffectual (Trump) and historically terrible (Bush II) but the right is… winning? Because you’re ahead (currently) in the polls for the upcoming midterms? As Frum said in his Waterloo post so long ago: elections come and go but policy is durable. Though I suppose Frum is now a leftist in the current zeitgeist.Report

              • Koz in reply to North says:

                Well yeah. We’re in the middle of taking over, pretty clearly at that. (Maybe if you say some nice things about Ronald Reagan I’ll put in a good word for you).

                We have been since 2010 when ACA passed, except for the historical idiosyncrasies and quirks associated with two people: Trump and Obama. One of these is no longer relevant, the other is struggling to maintain relevance.

                The Waterloo things is interesting, in that ACA is a policy but the Biden legislation for the most part isn’t policy, it’s just a random grab bag full of money. There’s very little there that President DeSantis can’t or won’t get rid of, probably without too much fanfare either.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Koz says:

                The problem with the ACA is it was medical insurance reform when what we needed was medical reform.Report

              • North in reply to Koz says:

                Ol’ Ronny Reagan was a bit before my time (I was in single digits of age) but he seemed to be good at the whole happy warrior schtick, he certainly loved his gummint spending and he managed not to blow the planet up which is an unmitigated good. I won’t mention Iran Contra. Does that count as good?

                I mean Bidens various accomplisments were tons of policy- more spending on tax enforcement? Moving energy production in the direction of low carbon production? Increasing federal funding of infrastructure? Is a hypothetical DeSantis going to tear up the highways and pipes or something? Will he make coal great again? Heck, will he even have 60 votes in the Senate? Signs say no.Report

              • Philip H in reply to North says:

                You forgot repatriating computer chip manufacturing from China . . .Report

              • Koz in reply to North says:

                Moving energy production in the direction of low carbon production? Increasing federal funding of infrastructure? Is a hypothetical DeSantis going to tear up the highways and pipes or something? Will he make coal great again?

                Renewable energy, especially solar, has made tremendous progress over the last 25 years or so. Likewise, coal has been in decline for about that long.

                But, renewables aren’t ready to power first world economies yet. When are they are, they probably will. There’s nothing Biden has done to meaningfully change that.

                What he has done, is discourage oil and gas production. And that doesn’t create a clean energy economy any faster. All that does is empower people like Putin and the Iranians, hit domestic consumers in the pocketbook, and force a reversion to coal, as the Germans are currently finding out. Forced into that action by the Green Party nonetheless.

                As far as 60 seats goes, that’s actually very plausible. In fact, come 2024 70 GOP seats are in play. That will take some luck or movement to the GOP, but not as much as you might think.

                As far as the roads and chips go, I can’t see why President DeSantis would want to undo those things. They are the sort of thing you’ll see when the GOP gets its trifecta.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Koz says:

                They are the sort of thing you’ll see when the GOP gets its trifecta

                Please. The GOP had the trifecta during Trump’s first two years and all we got were tax cuts that didn’t trickle down and China Tariffs that means washing machines, cars and all sorts of other things got more expensive. And don’t forget all the votes to repeal the ACA which failed.Report

              • North in reply to Koz says:

                Oh, I get it, so you mean the GOP will redefine its goals, and the goals of the right, to move closer to the left. Hey, I’m on board with that. The GOP has been throwing the old republitarian principles of the GOP of the 90’s, aughts and teens overboard like mad since Bush II fished things up so badly and Trump expressly ran against them. It’s been one heck of a muddle on the right on everything except tax cuts ever since. If you think the way it’ll end up shaking out is libertarians will be out and populists will be in? I can’t shed many tears about that. When Bill Clinton moved the Democrats to the right on economics the GOP basically lost its mind. I don’t think the Dems will make the same mistake if the GOP moves left.

                As to the Senate, odds are looking like the Dems will have 50+ seats after the mid-terms. Let’s just be generous and assume they stay at 50- you think a hypothetical DeSantis Presidency will somehow gently shuffle Trump off to Mar a Lago without him pitching a fit and blowing the right up AND that DeSantis will win a landslide victory where he also rakes in TWENTY Senate seats? That’s some powerful stuff to be smoking!Report

              • Philip H in reply to North says:

                As far as 60 seats goes, that’s actually very plausible. In fact, come 2024 70 GOP seats are in play.

                We need to tag this somehow for future use.

                Because 538 doesn’t agree – https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Philip H says:

                My over-under is 52.Report

              • Koz in reply to Philip H says:

                Because 538 doesn’t agree –

                I was talking about 60 votes in 2024. That said, 538 is pretty bad and getting worse. Nate Silver is still miles better than Sam Wang, but that’s about it.

                He relies way too much on public polling where the structural flaws are becoming more and more clear. In fact, get ready for at least a couple 20 point misses this November.Report

              • Koz in reply to North says:

                Oh, I get it, so you mean the GOP will redefine its goals, and the goals of the right, to move closer to the left.

                To a significant extent, yes. For that, you should give Trump blame or credit, as you choose. Things like Social Security, Medicare, and good public schools are Republican issues now, and sometimes even wedge issues.Report

              • North in reply to Koz says:

                This is a rare area where you and I agree. Trump does indeed deserve credit/blame for cracking, however briefly, the GOP out of its republitarian rut. Action wise he didn’t really accomplish anything substantive, of course, but libertarianism and neoconism have been in precipitous decline ever since Trump mopped the stage with them in 2016. I would argue that Bush II’s historic failures and clusterfishes probably deserve more blame than Trump does but really that’s just arguing around the edges.

                I am genuinely surprised that you view this development with what appears to be equanimity. What about folk marxism? Isn’t Trump the biggest folk Marxist on the block now? I mean, I’m a yellow dog Democrat but if the Dems jumped ship on, say, gay rights or abortion rights or started declaring that a boots on the ground land war in Asia would be a good idea I’d pretty rapidly sour on them. You seem unmoved by what seems like a substantive
                volte-face from the party.Report

              • Koz in reply to North says:

                You seem unmoved by what seems like a substantive
                volte-face from the party.

                Folk Marxism was at least as much a descriptive word as a pejorative one, something that I tried to explain to various people back when, usually to little avail.

                In any event, the Trump/Biden money spigot is certainly a worrisome thing, at least for me. Basically, we just have to ride our luck on that one.

                Before we can reform the welfare state, we have to rebuild a reservoir of trust between the political class and the grass roots. In more concrete terms, put the genie back in the bottle let out by ACA (and immigration).

                Kinda like how we have to rebuild a store of solidarity among Americans in general, Blue and Red, but not exactly. Either one, the prescription is the same: vote Republican.Report

              • Koz in reply to North says:

                Let’s just be generous and assume they stay at 50- you think a hypothetical DeSantis Presidency will somehow gently shuffle Trump off to Mar a Lago without him pitching a fit and blowing the right up AND that DeSantis will win a landslide victory where he also rakes in TWENTY Senate seats?

                Yeah, we’ll get 4, maybe 5 this year and 15 or so in 2024. Look at the map, they’re there to be had.

                As far as Trump goes, Trump leaving is actually a good scenario for the GOP. That’s how the GOP will regain the white professional UMC’s they lost under Trump. Trump could go scorched earth or try to play spoiler, but I don’t think that’s as big a threat as some others think. GOP has seen the consequences of the GA Senate races and they don’t want to see that movie again.

                No, the bigger problem is nominating someone else, however that happens.Report

              • North in reply to Koz says:

                I mean it’s early for a prediction thread for the midterms but I will take my hat off to you in recognition of the bold prediction. Hat’s off buddy!Report

              • Michael Cain in reply to North says:

                I’m getting old, and just can’t muster the energy to be interested in anything outside of the American West. One of Koz or I are horribly wrong about what’s going to happen out here in November.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Michael Cain says:

                Yeah, the whole Roe thing has turned this game from a +14 blowout to a could-go-either-way-by-three ugly mess.

                I don’t see anything happening in November.

                But, of course, there are a lot of things that could go change minds between here and there.Report

              • Koz in reply to Michael Cain says:

                I’m getting old, and just can’t muster the energy to be interested in anything outside of the American West. One of Koz or I are horribly wrong about what’s going to happen out here in November.

                That’s interesting actually, because I was actually hoping you’d check in. The West has a lot of interesting stuff going on this cycle.

                For me, at least:

                The Arizona Republicans are the fcking worst state party ever.
                Nevada (to a lesser extent New Mexico and south/west Texas) is going to be the brightest of bright spots on a good GOP night.
                The Colorado Democrats, not just the party apparatus but the pols plus the voters in general, are probably in the best shape for the coming GOP realignment of any state in the country.
                The social comity of Kansas is the end state for the upcoming GOP wave.Report

              • Michael Cain in reply to Koz says:

                From memory (so suspect, I suppose) the last time we exchanged views you had the Republicans reversing all of the gains Dems had made in the last three election cycles (eg, the US Senate seats in AZ and NV were a lock, and they would be competitive in CO). I had the Dems continuing the slow gain in the voters overall, with AZ close enough to a tipping point it would look superficially like a blue wave there).

                One of the things that I think is really interesting (and very wonky) is that this year in the 13-state West >90% of all votes cast will be by mail ballots. Very possibly >95%. All using permanent systems, not temporary Covid-related things. Western voters generally love their mail ballots (here in Colorado, mail ballots poll better than apple pie, and give Mom a run for the money). It’s not going to be the deciding thing, but the constant national Republican noise that mail ballots are intrinsically evil is yet another current the state Republicans here have to row against.Report

              • Koz in reply to North says:

                I mean it’s early for a prediction thread for the midterms but I will take my hat off to you in recognition of the bold prediction. Hat’s off buddy!

                We’re flying blind a little bit because the polls are so bad, and the Demos have made some progress over the last three months or so. Tbh, the Senate is where there is the most variance/uncertainty. At _least_ 235, probably 240 are locked in for the GOP in the House.

                The thing to keep in mind, is that the whatever the polls say, whenever actual people have voted it’s been really good for the GOP, with maybe just a couple of exceptions.

                twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1558999834446684161

                Eg, this is the most recent one, and its fairly typical. Thousands and thousands of new GOP primary voters are showing up to the polls, basically in every state that’s had primaries (again, one or two exceptions). In this case, it represents a GOP gain of 22 percentage points in two-party share.

                I think a lot of conventional wisdom in this cycle is either Demo hopium or substantial misunderstanding of the state of the race.

                (It’s not all peaches and cream for the GOP btw. If you care I’ll write something about the good news for Demos.)Report

        • Dark Matter in reply to North says:

          2nd vaccine.Report

          • North in reply to Dark Matter says:

            Biden is the President of a Pharma company now? Who knew?Report

            • Dark Matter in reply to North says:

              Have the Pharma companies become less greedy? Did they fire the scientists? Get rid of the new technologies?

              We replaced Trump with Biden and we stopped getting new vaccines. Without their boss putting a gun to their head, the FDA takes years to approve this sort of thing even though the actual vaccine can be created in weeks and tested in months.

              The strong implication is that Biden doesn’t have the bandwidth to lean on the FDA so they’re back to their defaults.Report

  8. CJColucci says:

    You can’t beat somebody with nobody.Report

  9. Chip Daniels says:

    I’m beginning to think this guy knows what he’s doing:

    In fiery midterm speech, Biden says GOP’s turned toward ‘semi-fascism’

    “The MAGA Republicans don’t just threaten our personal rights and economic security,” Biden said, referencing former president Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again slogan. “They’re a threat to our very democracy. They refuse to accept the will of the people. They embrace — embrace — political violence. They don’t believe in democracy.”

    “This is why in this moment, those of you who love this country — Democrats, independents, mainstream Republicans — we must be stronger,” he added.
    The rhetoric was an escalation for Biden and an indication that he views the threat as greater than just Trump and an ideology that shows little sign of abating. It marked a transition as well, as the president turned more pointedly toward the midterm elections and attempted not only to tout his own record but to create a sharper contrast with the opposing party.

    “I want to be crystal-clear about what’s on the ballot this year,” he said near the start of his remarks, during which he removed his jacket and rolled up his sleeves. “Your right to choose is on the ballot this year. The Social Security you paid for from the time you had a job is on the ballot. The safety of our kids from gun violence is on the ballot.”

    “The very survival of our planet is on the ballot,” he added. “Your right to vote is on the ballot. Even democracy. Are you ready to fight for these things now?”

    Dark Brandon rising.Report