2023 Best Picture Oscars Projections: The Calm Before The Storm

Its been a month since I updated my projections for where I thought next year’s Best Picture race at the Oscars stood. The biggest award of the whole ceremony that would likely trickle down to which films and performances would be in contention for other awards that will given out.

And in just the last month the race has dramatically shifted thanks in part to some stunning calendar release changes involving some of the biggest contenders that there are. Netflix delayed their big contender Rustin for next year, Next Goal Wins was confirmed to have been delayed for yet another year by its Director thanks to major re-shoots, My big gamble on Netflix’s upcoming David Fincher film in The Killer seems to have been a poor one as it increasingly looks like that will be a 2023 release, and an earthquake ripped through awards circles when word got out Apple was now eyeing a Cannes 2023 premiere instead of a winter release for Martin Scorsese’s Killers Of The Flower Moon.

Just like that, three movies that I had predicted to be among the ten nominated since the Spring and one that wasn’t too far behind were off the board completely. This incredible set of delays of course only benefits the contenders that needed these movies to get out of their way. But its not just the delays but also potential returns to the race by former contenders as there are rumors abound that Apple might be willing to risk a late 2022 release for the Will Smith starring Emancipation that had been previously delayed for next year. Unlike last year where much of the race seemed to be set in stone almost the whole way through, this one is shaping up to be a more fluid and unpredictable one.

This couldn’t have happened at a more important leg in the race as we are officially experiencing the calm before the storm. That storm being the fall film festivals that will saturate the calendar throughout September and premiere many of these contenders at them. Festivals like Telluride, Toronto, Venice, and New York which all have a history of setting the stage and tone for what the Best Picture lineup could look like. Academy voters and major film critics will be attending and ready to start campaigning for their favorite films. And don’t forget that audience award winning films at these festivals have had deep runs; or that every Best Picture winner post The Departed has had a festival premiere, even last year’s statistical anomaly in CODA which premiered at Sundance. We are literally just around the corner from awards season campaigning starting to get serious and before you know it critics organizations will be giving out their awards just as industry voters begin to get their screeners.

Like the last update I’ve shrunk the board down. This time I have honed in on thirty five films across seven tiers that I believe are in contention to be among the ten nominated for Best Picture on nomination morning in late January. Keep in mind this is an objective attempt at analyzing the race and has nothing to do with any personal preference of mine. This is a projection of how a certain subset of voters will vote, not my personal “Best Of” list.  Also note that just because a movie isn’t on the board right now doesn’t mean it can’t eventually get on the board or even end up among the ten nominees. This is strictly based on how the race looks like to me as of writing time. Without further adieu, here is my current outlook on the Best Picture race for next year’s Academy Awards ceremony.

 

TIER 1: BEST PICTURE OSCARS THE FRONT-RUNNERS TO GO ALL THE WAY

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 01. Babylon; 02. The Fabelmans; 03. Empire Of Light; 04. Bardo; 05. Everything Everywhere All At Once

– Details: When it comes to the top tier of front-runners to not just get a nomination but potentially win the whole thing, we still have the heavyweights since the Spring at the top. Included among them is Damien Chazelle’s upcoming film on the shift from silent film to the talkies in Babylon which I still consider the one to beat for now even though I remain bullish that a more “crowd-pleaser” type of film will potentially surge past it at the end. We also have Steven Spielberg’s own Belfast and Roma type of  coming of age movie with The Fabelmans right behind that; and now breaking into the top three is Sam Mendes’ upcoming romance film set in the eighties and revolving around “the magic of the movies” in Empire Of Light. The latter two will go head-to-head at Toronto for the audience award and if both break the top three it likely makes both locks to get a nomination here.

Then you have the two biggest winners of the recent surprise delays, each going from heavyweights to get nominated to now potentially in it to win the whole thing. You have Netflix-backed Mexican film Bardo which will be an epic three hour comedic drama that it seems has replaced Rustin as the movie the Netflix campaign monster will get behind as their top priority. And then at fifth place and continuing to rise each day as a serious contender is the A24 independent multiverse movie that has had impressive box office legs in Everything Everywhere All At Once. Its been the little film that could and with its high critical and audience scores it could have a higher ceiling than some imagined it could back when it premiered at the South by Southwest festival in the spring. Literally everything this movie needed to become a contender has happened to it so far and now it just needs to survive all the focus that will be coming towards the “new look” movies premiering at the upcoming festivals.

 

TIER 2: BEST PICTURE OSCARS THE OTHER HEAVYWEIGHTS BREAKING INTO THE 10

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 06. Amsterdam; 07. The Son; 08. She Said; 09. Women Talking; 10. Top Gun: Maverick

– Details: Slipping a bit and falling from the top tier to the second is David O. Russell’s upcoming dark comedy mystery film in Amsterdam. While O. Russell’s personal behavior has come under scrutiny, the Academy is infamous for ignoring certain controversies when it comes to favorites of there’s and the fact is the man’s movies have hit well with voters in the recent past.

In the seventh spot and climbing an impressive eight slots is the non-related follow-up to Best Picture nominee The Father with The Son. I’ve made a point as to my skepticism of this as a Best Picture contender in the past, but after those big-time delays I think this movie is even more likely to get into the race now if it finds the same kind of passion its predecessor did.

Staying in the eight spot is the Harvey Weinstein scandal movie She Said which I still think is on thin ice when it comes to its chances thanks to potentially having some voters ashamed of or being too close to the scandal – not to mention the studio having an even bigger contender on their hands with The Fabelmans.

Jumping eight spots from being a contender within striking distance to actually being predicted by me to get a nomination is the film adaptation to the novel Women Talking, in which women involved in a religious colony begin to deal with the knowledge they are being sexually harassed within their community. I’ve heard the buzz for this one only get louder through the last couple of months and with those stunning delays of top contenders, my growing skepticism of She Said‘s ceiling, and the fact that after the Dobbs Supreme Court decision you’ll likely see the Academy’s personal politics try to send a message, its surged into being a near top-tier contender in my eyes.

And going from a movie that wasn’t even remotely on the board in my mind back in the Spring to one that has become such a phenomenon that I now think it makes the Best Picture lineup today, its the massively successful Top Gun: Maverick. Whether it be its insane box office or seeing important Academy voters like Quentin Tarantino declaring it their favorite movie of the year, its hard to see how this doesn’t end up a Best Picture nominee at this rate. Its feeling more and more like the next Mad Max: Fury Road as a summer blockbuster type of legacy sequel that even the Academy Awards can’t ignore.

 

TIER 3: BEST PICTURE OSCARS SERIOUS CONTENDERS ON THE HEELS OF THE 10

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 11. Avatar: The Way Of Water; 12. RRR; 13. Elvis; 14. Triangle Of Sadness; 15. The Greatest Beer Run Ever

– Details: Still sticking to the eleventh spot and just outside the top ten is the sequel to the big populist contender from 2010’s ceremony, Avatar: The Way Of Water. Disney considers this their biggest contender and has it slated for a late release for a strategical reason. Question is if it can get the same kind of love and passion behind it that a movie that came out over a decade ago did as it positions itself to become a new franchise.

In the twelfth spot is the Indian film sensation RRR which has captured hearts all over the globe. As I’ve stated before, if enough voters get their eyes on this one and India submits it as their International Film contender, I can see this one’s ceiling being much higher than some can imagine and that includes a spot in the Best Picture lineup.

Climbing up a hefty nine slots to the thirteenth spot and continuing an amazing ascension from being way down on the board back in the Spring is Baz Luhrman’s Elvis. The movie has had a successful box office run, its lead Austin Butler is arguably the extremely early frontrunner to win Best Actor for now, and a passionate fan base has arisen for it to make many a “Best of the year so far” lists that I’ve seen. I don’t know if its momentum can survive the coming deluge of new awards potentials premiering at the festivals but it has gone from a movie that felt like an “also ran” to arguably being on the verge of being in the final lineup of ten.

Also climbing a good amount is the Cannes film festival’s top awarded film Triangle Of Sadness featuring a comedic satirical look at wealth and class when a cruise sailing goes wrong. Its buzz has only gotten stronger in the last month and Neon is clearly positioning it as a serious contender for them. The movie will be showing up again at film festivals and will get a public release in October. It could gain enough of a following to get into the final lineup.

And climbing an impressive twelve slots and going from a movie that was sinking fast to one that is now on the verge of potentially becoming a serious contender, its The Greatest Beer Run Ever. With Apple distributing this one and now needing a new top contender to replace Killers Of The Flower Moon, this could be the “feel good” film that they use to surge themselves into the Best Picture race again. However if those rumors about Emancipation being returned to the 2022 calendar prove true, I can see this one’s chances fading once again. But as is, its enjoying a surge thanks to the big shift in strategy from the studio.

 

TIER 4: BEST PICTURE OSCARS LONG SHOTS ON VERGE OF BEING TAKEN SERIOUS

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 16. Thirteen Lives; 17. Decision To Leave; 18. The Woman King; 19. Don’t Worry Darling; 20. Marcel The Shell With The Shoes On

– Details: If there’s one film who’s stock has been falling consistently is Amazon’s supposedly big contender Thirteen Lives. The movie about the miraculous 2018 Thailand Boys Soccer team rescue was even predicted by me to get nominated back in the Spring. That was after the studio moved its release to strategize it as an awards contender, and word was it got amazing test audience reviews. However the studio had everyone questioning this when they released the movie in the late summer, rather than the fall, and now that its come out many of us aren’t seeing the buzz they were hoping for coming to fruition. Having seen the movie for myself now (and really liking it for the most part) I have to say I just don’t see the top contender that we were being told this was. Its gone from an actual predicted nominee to now being considered a long shot that could be on the verge of being taken serious again, but it is fading fast and could really use a second life in the way CODA pulled off last year.

Climbing up in the seventh spot is the Cannes film festival premiering and South Korea’s submission for International competition in Decision To Leave. Thanks to big-time delay announcements and word of mouth I think this movie’s chances have only been getting better and it will be getting encore showings at the upcoming festival season to boot. Historically only one non-English film tends to make into the race, but if Bardo slips I can see this one taking its slot.

Remaining where they were in the eighteenth and nineteenth slot are two female empowerment movies in The Woman King and Don’t Worry Darling. With two such films currently predicted to make the final lineup, it’ll be tough to see if these two can differentiate themselves enough to join the fray. Both will have certain genre biases against them and they both have release schedules that aren’t exactly super friendly for awards hopes, but either one could end up gaining enough of a fanbase to surge into serious contention.

And in the twentieth spot is the highly acclaimed Marcel The Shell With The Shoes On, the first ever A24 family film that has ended up one of the most highly acclaimed films of the year. Its being submitted by the studio as a Best Animated Feature contender and its that kind of movie that the more eyeballs that get on it, the more its likely in my mind it can get enough votes to make it to the final lineup. Its a long shot, but I think its on the verge of becoming something serious if its momentum continues.

 

TIER 5: LONG SHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 21. Cha Cha Real Smooth; 22. The Whale; 23. Living; 24. Tar; 25. All Quiet On The Western Front

– Details: Some films that seemed like they were needing a path suddenly got one after those major delays. That includes the German adaptation of the second film to ever win the Best Picture award in All Quiet On The Western Front which reportedly Germany believes is their ticket to an International Feature Oscar and will even get backing from Netflix. Alongside that is Tar – Todd Field’s newest project which will likely feature a Best Actress contending performance from two-time winner Cate Blanchett, Living – the British remake to the iconic 1952 Kurosawa film Ikiru which stars Bill Nighy, and A24’s The Whale – the adaptation to a play about an obese and dying man with Brendan Fraser as the lead in what could end up his Oscars moment.

But one movie in striking distance but seemingly losing momentum compared to those I mentioned is the Sundance winning and Apple backed film Cha Cha Real Smooth. Critics love this movie and I see it not just making some’s “Best of the year so far” lists but even being listed as some critics’ number one film of the year. But the movie’s audience scores have been less than stellar and its early release is already playing against it as it starting to feel less and less like it’s one of those movies that will be in the conversation by the end of the year. I made the comment in the last update that I felt like this one was peaking before it inevitably started to fall and one month later it already feels like it needs a major resurgence.

 

TIER 6: BEST PICTURE OSCARS VIABLE CONTENDERS LOOKING FOR A PATH

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 26. Three Thousand Years Of Longing; 27. White Noise; 28. I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody; 29. Till; 30. Holy Spider

– Details: In terms of contenders that are still looking for a path we have George Miller’s Three Thousand Years Of Longing which seemed to peak at the Cannes Film Festival but will need some renewed buzz when it releases to the public a few weeks from when I’m writing this. We also have White Noise, Best Picture nominee Marriage Story Director Noah Baumbach’s next project which could prove to be inaccessible for some given its weird plot or end up another major Netflix awards contender.

Climbing up five spots but still having trouble breaking out just yet are two bio-pics in I Wanna Dance With Somebody and Till. Each of these could end up surging into being one of the ten called out on nomination morning but each still seems to be needing “a moment” to break out as top contenders. If either of them do surge, it’ll have to be late as both films are coming out much later in the season especially the former which doesn’t come out until around Christmas time.

In the thirtieth spot after falling a steep ten slots is the one Cannes film festival contender that literally has no buzz whatsoever since the Summer in Holy Spider. It’s a brooding film about a serial killer terrorizing sex workers in Iran, but it doesn’t seem to be catching on much compared to others like Triangle Of Sadness or Decision To Leave. Maybe if it becomes a major player in the Best International Feature race things will change, but for now this one is starting to feel like an “also ran”.

 

TIER 7: BEST PICTURE OSCARS UNLIKELY CONTENDERS BARELY HANGING ON

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 36. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 37. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; 38. Strange World; 39. The Batman; 40. Nope

– Details: Finally we have the tier of contenders that are unlikely to get in but are just barely holding on there in my opinion to sneak into the race late. Falling down five slots and on the verge of falling off the board all together is Jordan Peele’s latest in Nope. As well received as the film has been with cinephiles, its audience scores are more divisive, and it hasn’t garnered the conversation that Get Out much less even Us did when it comes to Peele’s previous efforts. It’ll need a real resurgence to get back in it, but its chances are looking dreary.

Going up two slots but barely in it is The Batman which continues to have its release schedule, genre bias, and studio strategy against its chances even though its been incredibly well received. In another year this could have become a top-notch contender but between Top Gun: Maverick being what it is, the current concerns among the industry about the superhero subgenre hurting the business, and this bizarre new strategy with DC films among the new Warner Brothers’ leadership, it just seems like inevitably it’ll be gone from the conversation all together other than maybe some tech nominations.

Up five slots and still hanging in there is the next Disney Animation Studios’ film, Strange World. Animated movies making the Best Picture lineup is extremely rare, but all save one time that its occurred it was when there was a hard ten slated for a nomination. Arguably Pixar came very close to breaking into the field a few times in the last decade and if this ends up one of those special, highly heralded, Disney films this could potentially have a path to sneaking into the race.

Another movie that is up five slots and hanging in there is the sequel to Knives Out, Glass Onion. Its extremely likely the first film came super close to a Best Picture nomination and with there being ten slots this time around, a fall film festival premiere, and Netflix backing this could end up becoming a serious contender to get a nomination this time around. However, it is a sequel and a genre film which makes it harder to get in and thus why I have it so low even though I respect the argument by others its closer to making the ten than I currently believe it is.

But the biggest contender of these is a film I had on the board in the Spring, took off the board last Summer, and now have it back in contention. That’s the sequel to an actual Best Picture nominated film in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. This thing was completely out of the running in my and others’ mind until the teaser trailer for it dropped and overnight the buzz started ramping up about this getting a Best Picture run. However, I believe the teaser trailer and renewed buzz still barely has in it. I stand by my belief the discourse on the MCU has gotten so toxic for some voters that I just can’t see them rewarding a Marvel film with such an honor again anytime soon. Not to mention sequels have a hard time getting in as it is. But regardless, that one trailer literally brought this film’s awards hopes back to life.

 

And that’s how I see the race for Best Picture shaping up to look like as we head towards festivals’ season. The next time I’ll be updating around October we would have gone through all the major festivals, had eyeballs on some of these contenders, perhaps be introduced to new contenders, and will know for sure if certain films are actual contenders or just pretenders. Not just that, but I’ll be able to start looking past just the Best Picture race and start looking towards other awards down the ballot. Until then this is where the battlefield stands in my mind as we start counting down towards the campaign season really starting to amp up next month.

 

BEST PICTURE OSCARS PREVIOUS CONTENDERS DELAYED TO/CONFIRMED FOR 2023

– Killers Of The Flower Moon

– Next Goal Wins

– Rustin

– The Killer

 

PREVIOUS CONTENDERS KNOCKED OFF THE BOARD

– The Northman

– Turning Red