Gird Your Loins For The “Great Rebundling”
Ah, the perfect, unclouded days of just buying your entertainment needs in bundle and whistling a happy tune as the perfect union of corporate and personal interests conjoined to produce joy and contentment across the fruited plain.
Yeah, that never happened.
Folks who lived through it can explain why streaming created a bum rush to get rid of cable bundles and use the evolving streaming technologies to have more choice. Also predicted by just about everyone, at some point that pendulum was going to come back looking for a way to get diverse customers back into neatly defined boxes. Or, more to the point, more stable revenue streams for the streaming platforms.
This is a long rip but Sonny Bunch really gets into some important points here:
The recent history of television looks something like this: Tired of three networks, consumers flocked to cable companies, which bundled together dozens, then hundreds of channels. But most customers came to realize they watched only a handful of these channels. They grew frustrated, demanding to know why they were paying for things they weren’t using. So the Great Unbundling began: People could get individual channels via streaming or cheaper packages on YouTube and pay only for what they wanted to watch.
Between the increasing cost of high-speed internet and the proliferation of streaming subscriptions — Netflix, Hulu, Disney Plus, HBO Max, Apple TV Plus, the Criterion Channel, YouTube, Shudder, Paramount Plus, Peacock, etc. — costs haven’t really gone down all that much. People wind up paying a little less, maybe, but at the cost of having radically fewer choices. What’s interesting about this is how little most folks really seem to mind the trade-off.
Only part of this is economic. A much bigger part has to do with self-conception and identity: People simply don’t want to associate, even tangentially, with channels or products they don’t like.
We’ve seen this for years, on the left and on the right. It was at least part of the argument made both by conservative-minded parents groups frustrated by the proliferation of boundary-pushing channels such as FX and by progressives angry at Fox News’s dominance in the cable news ecosystem. People, they said, shouldn’t be forced to support channels or programs they find offensive. That these channels didn’t cost consumers very much doesn’t really matter. Their objections were ideological — a signal against the coarsening of the culture or the degradation of the discourse.
The phenomenon isn’t limited to entertainment, of course. Just last week, The Post reported on Cracker Barrel customers who were angry that plant-based Impossible sausage had been added to the menu. It’s important to note that the pork sausage Southerners have enjoyed for generations hadn’t been removed from the menu. Customers were merely angry that they had to associate, however indirectly, with something enjoyed by their out-group.
This is at least one reason Warner Bros. Discovery may be making a mistake when it considers plans to merge HBO Max and Discovery Plus into a single streaming service. Most HBO Max subscribers probably don’t see themselves as “Discovery people,” nor vice versa. After all, HBO remains best represented by the tagline “It’s not TV, it’s HBO.” Discovery Plus, meanwhile, is the absolute lowest common denominator of TV: cheap reality programming on HGTV and the Food Network combined with reruns on A&E and whatever TLC, formerly known as The Learning Channel, has evolved into.
HBO Max and Discovery Plus can coexist on the same home screen. (My family’s Apple TV is proof of that.) Even packaging both together as a deal — similar to the one that Disney offers to subscribers of Disney Plus, Hulu and ESPN Plus — makes sense as something people can opt in to. But merging them into one, and only one, location makes less sense, just as merging the Disney-owned trio into one app would make less sense for families who only want the animated Bluey or millennials who only want FX on Hulu.
In an age of niche entertainment and supreme customization, people get almost angry when something they don’t want or don’t identify with is forced upon them. Think back to one of the foundational lessons of this age: the debacle that was U2’s “Songs of Innocence,” a terrible misstep by Apple and the Irish rock group that involved putting the album — for free but without warning— onto every iTunes account.
Most customers weren’t happy about getting a gratis surprise. Rather, they saw it as a violation of the sanctity of their music library, the purest and most private distillation of their own tastes. If you weren’t a “U2 person,” this was almost an act of aggression on the part of Apple and Bono, one that lingers in the collective memory.
In an age of niche-dom, even a gift from the biggest band (or brand) can be an unwelcome intrusion.
Entertainment conglomerates seem to be forgetting that as they move closer to making people pay for properties they don’t identify with.
Which is really the point that has been at the core of marketing and business for as long as there has been marketing and business: how do you get people to pay for something whether they like it or not? The traditional marketing response is pairing the unwanted thing with a wanted thing. Or bundling, as Flo would say in those omnipresent insurance ads. The inescapable answer, though, is that while consumers might for a while, unless it is something absolutely necessary, eventually folks will find a way to not pay for what they don’t want to pay for. Streaming is no different. Once you move that truth into the realm of highly subjective and fiercely competitive world of entertainment, you have a dual pronged problem of trying to make media both mass and niche at the same time. While the Disneys and Paramounts of the world have more than enough content to do both, others are scrambling to figure out the balance between the two, and if going all in on one or the other would be a better solution.
There is going to be a never-ending tug-of-war between streaming developing into whatever it is going to be and the content creators that platform their wares on them, with the customer/audience as the rope. The big companies have all sorts of plans, but the variable in all those – as Netflix and others have learned the hard way – is the audience/customers. Mass niche media is a unicorn that isn’t going to be catchable, but it sure seems like millions of dollars are going to be spent on trying.
We are all different, and our entertainment consumption is a melting pot where our differences and similarities meld and contrast. Unlike Sonny, I love me some Food Network and HGTV, and would far rather watch that than go to a movie in a theater. If I absolutely have to slog through HBO’s often overwrought, overly self-important and overpriced content then I’m probably not going to watch to get to my Guy Fieri; I’ll adapt and overcome.
But we haven’t quite got there yet.
You absolutely can use streaming to watch whatever you want at a fraction of the cost of premium cable TV: Just rotate subscriptions! Realistically, you’re only going to watch so much in a given month; why not stick to Netflix in July, Disney in August, HBO in September, and so forth? Even if you subscribe to two or three services at a time, that’s still a good deal compared to $100+ for cable.
Of course, if everyone does this, the system breaks down. The economics of these services depends on people staying subscribed year-round. Netflix works with people paying $120 per year, but not with people paying $20-30 per year.
For the same reason, the unbundling people were asking for in the 2000s was always pure fantasy. Paying 10% of the cost for 10% of the channels was never viable, because turning off 90% of the channels doesn’t actually cut costs.
Besides, the economics favor bundling. Because the marginal cost of giving viewers access to additional content is so low, the industry as a whole is better off with viewers paying $50/month for everything than paying $40/month for access to 10% of the content. The only reason they charge extra for premium channels (or multiple streaming services) is price discrimination: They want to get more money out of those who either really like TV or can afford to spend more. Part of this is that they want to make more money, of course, but they also just can’t produce all the content they produce with everyone paying only basic-cable rates.Report
You are correct but then you’re performing the ancient act of swapping out money for effort. Managing those subscriptions, subscribing, unsubscribing and rotating them, is a non trivial amount of work and if you lapse at it you end up paying for undesired months. If you do it correctly you save money but are putting in more work.
Still the fundament principle is still sound. The grip has to get paid. People want the entertainment and other people can’t/won’t make it for free. The whole foofaraw about pricing and bundling is just the churn in between those two parties. Eventually a new stable paradigm will emerge but we can be 100% certain that it won’t be free because the grip has to be paid.
But if we’re really lucky maybe there’ll be a few fewer coke encrusted Hollywood execs skimming off the top in between those parties.Report
I just want my Turner Classic Movie channel back in my standard cable package.Report
“People simply don’t want to associate, even tangentially, with channels or products they don’t like.”
this is so weird to me, and so frustrating. Bunch mentioned the Cracker Barrel thing where they *added* another product to the menu and a few people went ballistic, so you’d think Cracker Barrel had gone full PETA and was shaming people for asking for dairy butter or something.
Honestly, this kind of – call it tribalism, maybe? – worries me. Because it means we see more stupid fights like that one, and maybe we get a few unhinged people who do things like threaten the lives of librarians because the libraries happen to have books that person, personally, does not approve of.
And as I said: it’s weird to me. A lot of my life has been compromise; accepting something that wasn’t *exactly* what I wanted in order to go along with the group I was in, or understanding “okay neither of the two local groceries sell the brand you prefer of that item and you don’t have time to drive an hour’s round trip to the larger city where you can get it, just pick a brand they have” and I wonder if the people making the big stinks about fake meat patties, or some cable channel they dislike being in their package, have never had to compromise in their life before, and that seems to me that they must be absolutely miserable people to have to be around.
I still have a cable package; it’s easy, it gets me a discount on my internet (from the same place). I don’t feel like dealing with streaming services. A couple years ago I *almost* signed up with Netflix and then read that DIsney (and I think, maybe, even then, Paramount?) was talking about pulling their IP off of Netflix, and I was like “eh, they’re gonna reinvent the cable package, just in streaming form, so we’ll pay what we paid before for cable but now we have to go through a more complicated interface to get the entertainment”
That said? It does seem that cable channels that have a streaming service have relegated the re-runs, stale content, and less-appealing content to their cable channel, while teasing the “good stuff” you can get if you “only” pay $12-15 more a month for their streaming service as well.
I don’t think there’s a solution to it: either we keep paying and griping, or we cut all those kinds of cords and go back to reading books or telling stories…Report
Very good comment. Rather than tribalism I’d use the word ‘childish.’Report
The push for cable unbundling isn’t really about that. It’s not (generally) that people are offended by having the Polka Channel in their cable package, but that they think they should be able to buy only the channels they actually watch at a steep discount. For reasons I explained in my earlier comment, this just doesn’t make economic sense and isn’t going to happen.Report
The difference with bundling is that a Netflix subscriber is paying for Cuties.Report
McMegan also made the pertinent point that, speaking realistically, the number of people -actually- cavailing about the vegan options on Cracker Barrel menus is inconsequential and that Cracker Barrel was quite unusually sensible by offering a polite “we don’t care about your irritation” comment in response and otherwise ignoring them.Report
One of the local tabloid papers occasionally prints a letter from someone complaining that comic X sucks and shouldn’t be on the comics page. Oddly, they almost never print letters asking that the paper add comic Y. You’d think the latter has a more legitimate grievance.Report
Heh, good point.Report
It’s good that they can do that with the cluster-B right. Here’s hoping for the day that businesses work up the guts to respond in this manner to the cluster-B left.Report
Shouldn’t take long. Business already ignores the internet left entirely on matters economic. They simply think that giving the internet left what they want on non-economic matters yields better return than ignoring them. I can’t honestly say with any confidence whether, in business terms, they’re right or wrong.Report
I think this misses one of the big issues preventing cutting the cord- pro and college sports. Back before the proliferation of streaming services the thing that kept me from doing it is it would have meant losing access to the local MLB teams, which during the summer would feel unthinkable. We’ve now also got the power 5 college conferences establishing their own networks, which I believe have become available on hulu, but at premium package prices. The result is that you aren’t really saving anything (every time I do the math it’s basically a wash), especially if your local internet choices are also your cable tv providers.Report
Yep, if I want to watch my MLB team live, I pretty much have to keep cable. I can subscribe to MLB and watch teams on the other side of the country or watch a replay of my team the next day. I still will miss a handful of games that MLB grants special distribution deals to Facebook, Peacock, Apple, etc.
My main concern with this is that my dad’s health took a turn for the worse a few years ago, and his baseball team was his main interest. His satellite tv provider discontinued baseball coverage and he refused to get cable. It was only when we realized that MLB would play the games the next day, and my dad usually DVR’d them anyway because he couldn’t stay awake long enough in the evening. I don’t know if I can watch that way.Report
I can definitely see why that would make sense for your dad. For me personally there’s no way I could do baseball on replay.Report
The Yankee & Entertainment Sports Network (YES) – one of the most expensive add ons in cable, always waring with the NY area providers – sold 21 regular season games to Amazon Prime this season. You throw in games on Apple Plus, ESPN, Fox Sports – it’s anyone’s guess where the Yankees will be broadcast on a given night.
Mind you this was the network that was built on being the only way to see every game when it was launched 20 years ago.
As a casual viewer who really only “checks in” on regular season game, it’s an incredibly frustrating 1st world problem to constantly have to exit Fios, launch Prime and then click on the game, then exit Prime, launch Fios, rinse repeat. And I’m not ashamed to admit that instead of going through those steps, I just check the score on my phone instead of switching services.
Yes, I’m that lazy. It’s a lot to ask of a chronic flipper.Report
As a regular viewer of live sports I sympathize. As an Orioles fan I say you deserve whatever misfortune befalls you, no matter how casual your support for the evil empire.Report
LOL, fair enough.
But as one of the rare Yankees/Jets fan hybrid, I feel my football misery created a more than adequate counterbalance.Report
The Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup. One of the Denver Nuggets’ players won the league MVP the last two years in a row. The one guy who owns both teams is in a three-year running feud with the local cable company (Comcast) so neither team has been on local television during those runs.Report
That’s insane. The network/provider battles here rarely get to the point that games are missed. And when they do, it’s maybe a week before everyone realizes how much money they are not making.Report
The same guy owns the LA Rams, so has presumably been distracted by the amount of money he’s making building a $5B facility and winning a Super Bowl.Report
He also owns Rapids but it’s been kind of a blessing to not be able to watch them!Report
I’m rarely right about tech predictions (I thought cell phones were a fad and smart phones were dumb).
But when cord cutting started I anticipated ever more streaming services with divided offerings and increased fees. My friends insisted it was the future and acted like they’d be forever laughing to the bank.
I mean, did we think these billion dollar companies were gonna be had?Report
Defining oneself by one’s consumption choices is a thing.
The weird thing is that the people who define themselves by their consumption choices see that as superior than merely consuming. There’s the meta-joke that I’m sure you’ve seen in the t-shirt: “I appreciate the muppets on a much deeper level than you”.
To compare to sports, it’s not enough to enjoy baseball. You have to have a team. Indeed, it’s not merely enough to have a team, you have to have a team that you hate. You know the joke “I just hope that both teams have fun”? Yep, that’s in the ballpark.
You may have even seen discussions of the circumstances under which you are allowed to change favorite teams.
You can’t just like the Yankees one year and then like the Twins the next. There is a very small list of reasons that give leave to change teams and “meh, I felt like it” is not on there. Like, there’s a debate over whether *MOVING CITIES* is on there.
There are a bunch of little rules over who constitutes a “real” fan from, say, “casual” ones.
So, too, for other consumption choices. Are you a real fan of the Marvel Cinematic Universe? How’s about Cracker Barrel? How’s about… well, no. That would start a food fight. (But that’s on there too.)Report
True. Also its what companies have been pushing hard for. They want us to define themselves by our brand of floor cleaner/desert topping/underwear color. It’s the primary basis of advertising. If there is anything that capitalism has woven into the fabric of the West ( and most of the rest of the world) it’s this kind of thing: defining ourselves by consumption.
Mad Men was about a lot of things but conspicuous consumption and how advertising leads us there is a big part of it.Report
We live in a world in which almost everyone defines themselves, in one way or another, by their consumption choices, and while I think the “People simply don’t want to associate, even tangentially, with channels or products they don’t like” explanation for people not going back to cable is ridiculous, it is undeniable that people increasingly view their consumption choices through a political lens.
I remember years ago on this site, I told a former OT author (who has long since self-banned) that I thought it was really depressing that he saw everything through a liberal-conservative political lens. Turns out, he was just ahead of his time.Report
We have to go back to just liking stuff.
Even if it means that other people like it on a deeper and more meaningful level than we do.Report
I define myself by my non-choices. Take that!Report
“No. I haven’t seen that show. I don’t have a television.”Report
“Which is really the point that has been at the core of marketing and business for as long as there has been marketing and business: how do you get people to pay for something whether they like it or not?”
This reminds me of the economics of amusement parks. They can make the most money if they charge on the way in and charge per ride. More rides (even if unpopular) can bring in extra people. Popular rides can bring in people and get them to pay extra.
One problem with the current model is that each subscription streaming site may only have two cool roller coasters and a bunch of identical bumper cars. There are sites like Tubi and even YouTube that can get you free tv and movies, so the strongest selling points are the tentpole projects. Peacock’s ads are only about The Office, Disney hocks Marvel and Star Wars, and Hulu has nearly given up.Report
Another issue with the streaming trend is the change in the ownership structure of much of the content. The big companies love the fact that they can control what options you have–remember how Disney used to release their classic movies on VHS and then make them out of print a month or so later?–and to control how you can watch, listen or read.
The days when the norm was to buy and therefore own a copy of X and–as long as you weren’t profiting off it–you could consume X to your heart’s content, however you pleased without having to worry that if the distributor when belly up you might lose all access to the thing you paid for.
I’d love to see the pendulum swing back in the direction of physical media being the norm.Report
Most of the streaming services have made the same category mistake that most cable companies made during the merger-and-acquisition frenzy of the 1990s: no matter how much they might wish, they are in the content aggregation and distribution business. Which means the tedious grungy work of signing up individual customers, managing billing and collections, handling delivery infrastructure, and negotiating contracts with the content producers. Not hanging with the glamorous people at the top of the production business.
There are only a few ways to make more money in that business, and they all boil down to aggregate more content in order to attract more customers at a fixed price for the package. In short, become a cable company sans the distribution plant. And eventually, that means signing up content like HGTV to pick up another million subscribers.Report
The other things companies can do is let you pay to “rent” a particular series but not subscribe. What if I want to watch For All Mankind or Slow Horses but do not want to subscribe to Apple TV or Moonknight but do not want to subscribe to Disney plus. Why not let people rent the season for X or purchase it for Y? Amazon lets you do this.Report
Because they want you to buy the cow for X a month, not the milk for a one time payment of x/100.Report
This is where the entitlement comes in. “I want your product but don’t want to pay what you’re charging.” Then you don’t get it.Report
Companies figure they earn more money this way but Disney does allow for certain MCU movies to be rented on YouTube. My guess is that after a certain amount of time, a lot of series and movies will become rentable via YouTube.Report
Amazon might also be fairly confident that they can let people rent because people also buy stuff from them. Their rental strategy works because they sell other stuff.Report
Our big cable company decided to get rid of cable boxes so they went with an all on line service. Supposed to be like Youtube or Hulu. Only problem is it worked terribly. So we ended up cutting the cord since our local cable company broke cable tv, a tech which has worked for decades. Shows wouldn’t record and live shows would freeze for minutes. Not great. Sigh.Report
If I put my Tech Sales hat on… what these platforms are stumbling towards is a consumption model.
The thing about consumption models is that they are difficult for the platforms at first, but lead to hockey-stick growth if successful. If successful. So, there’s a lot more risk than they’d like even if the upside is much bigger.
The issue for consumers is that it looks great at first, but, if the company is successful your spend will increase dramatically over time. In theory you are ‘happy’ about this because you are only spending the funds on things you consume and clearly you are happy with the things you are consuming. In theory. At which point you go back to your platform and say, dude, love your stuff, but what if I commit to spend $XX, can you give me a much better price on my consumption? To which your platform says Sure! And in theory everyone is happy. In theory.
Right now we’re in the weird middle ground where each platfom wants a fee to cover their risk – which works fine when there are one or two, but less well when there are 7, 8, infinity. When the market share grab is over, the pivot to consumption will commence and it will crush the ‘also rans’ because the model will shift the risk back to them.Report
I’ve been at a couple of companies now that have gone through this in a circular fashion, where unbundling leads to à la carte/transactional, which eventually jacks up the price, which causes CFOs and auditors to lose their minds, which eventually then returns to some form of bundling or tiers of service. This is all b2b though where the leverage is different, not consumer facing, where the ability to monopolize and completely pillage seems to me to be much greater.Report
Greater pillaging for B2B or B2C?
Yeah, I’ve had customers tell me they ‘love’ the hockeystick because as technical team they can get the right solutions they need to solve the business challenges, and then they are selling success to the CFO – vs. the old model where they had to put success at risk because all the costs were upfront and CFO was forcing solution decisions that made the projects fail, or take longer.
Two sides of same coin, I suppose. Fail quickly for less / pay more for success later.
Medium term I’d expect to see some consolidation into shared platform Sub Models (for the second/third tier players)… but once the first big-boy goes consumption with Tiers… game over.
Musing… I could see Substack pioneer some of this… like pay $10 or $20/month with, say 20 or 50 articles included where the per hit rate is shared with author.Report
It’s funny you mention substack, I was also thinking about them. I’m subscribed to 4 and there are others I like, or at least would like to be able to read occasional subscriber only articles, but the all or nothing à la carte makes it not worth it for any writer where I’m not going to read close to 100% of their output.Report