Joe Biden and the Incumbent Advantage

Photo by The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The American pundit class has spent this week returning to one of its favorite topics: the debate over who Democrats should nominate for president in 2024. The question has all the trappings of a summer news topic. It is relatively light, avoiding major stakes and the need for an imminent decision. The story involves the president of the United States, an eternal source of interest and speculation. It can drag on for the next two years without the need for intervening sources and infusions of news. Furthermore, it allows Democrats to release some of their pent-up frustration at the disappointing trajectory of the Biden administration while also allowing for some of the internecine centrists/leftists conflict that Democrats love to engage in.

The catalyst for Biden 2024 talk this week was a poll taken by Siena College and the New York Times showing that 64 percent of Democratic voters want a new candidate in 2024. This eye-popping number was released shortly after a New York Magazine piece by Ross Barkan dissecting the party’s problem with its president. Barkan argued that Biden was a clear drag on the party for the next presidential election. Biden has a low approval rating, one that persisted lower than several of his one-term predecessors. The president’s popularity is harmed by his slow responses to news stories and his poor handling of national crises. For instance, Barkan notes that following the repeal of Roe v. Wade, “There was no subsequent plan of action, no federal strategy or detailed calls for local governments to mobilize for abortion rights. [Biden] belatedly called for the end of the filibuster to codify Roe. By then, few were even listening.”

It is a proven fact that incumbents have a number of advantages in the American political system. They have instant, universal name recognition and often a brand that stretches back decades. Their policy proposals have been tried and tested in the American political system. One barrier to voters, the ability to see a man or woman in the office of president, is eliminated for incumbents. On the presidential level, incumbency is often so powerful that serious competitors do not emerge. Since 1920, only one incumbent has been successfully challenged by members of their own party.

This power of incumbency is particularly helpful for Democrats at this stage of party development. In 2022, most of the notable Democrats in the country are either early in their careers or are not interested in launching another presidential bid. Democratic activists and observers on Twitter are more excited about the prospect of a Katie Porter or Pete Buttigieg run than they are for another Biden term. But those politicians would have to spend several years and tens of millions of dollars simply introducing themselves to the American public. They would have to appear presidential, an unfortunate obstacle for prospective candidates who are not straight men. They would also need to overcome the sinking fear among many Democratic primary voters that the only candidate who can beat Trump is Joe Biden, the only candidate who has beaten Trump

Meanwhile, history is not kind to parties that dump their incumbents. Those rejections are few and far between in the nation’s history, and in almost every instance they result in disaster. In 1952, Democrats rejected incumbent Harry Truman and instead chose Adlai Stevenson. Stevenson was trounced by Dwight Eisenhower in the general election, losing by more than 300 Electoral College votes. Lyndon Johnson, rejected by primary voters in 1968, was replaced on the ticket by Hubert Humphrey, who lost the Electoral College by over 100 votes. In fact, the last party to drop its incumbent and win the next presidential election was the Republican Party of 1876. That election, in which Republicans dropped Grant due to the myriad scandals of his administration, was one of the closest in American history. Republicans won only after months of intrigue and a constitutional crisis.

Democrats are understandably worried about the status of their president. Biden’s poll numbers remain low and he does not seem to have a plan to improve them. But the solution should be to help the president formulate a plan that will secure him another term in office. Dumping an incumbent, especially one with poor polling in the face of another Trump presidency, would secure a Republican victory in 2024. Democrats should know better.