Student Loan Forgiveness: A Bad Idea Disguised
Student loan forgiveness is not a good idea… Not without other reforms. It is a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound. Only about 35% of Americans have graduated with a bachelor’s degree. While this percentage increases nominally every year, these graduates are more than likely to be upper middle class to upper class. Expanding student loan forgiveness to advanced degrees is even more egregious. Having the rest of the country, in the form of taxpayers, pay back these loans is ridiculous. Why should the ones who made good decisions be punished while those who made bad decisions get rewarded?
Student loan debt totals approximately $1.7 trillion in America. That’s with a T. That’s a lot. No one forces you to take out a student loan, but, for most, it is a necessary element of going to college. Now, I don’t think college should be necessary, as one of my first articles here elucidated my hatred of credentialism. A four-year degree is a glorified job-hunting license. And a necessary requirement to go to law school or medical school. For reasons.
This is a case example of perverse incentives. Without fixing the system that led to this issue, we’ll be in the same boat a decade or two from now. And if that is the case, anyone with student loan debt after the initial tranche of forgiveness would be a damn fool to pay even a red cent towards repayment. But beyond that, it rewards bad behavior. Those who graduated without debt or have since paid off any debt related to their education become saps. They did the hard work to make sure they paid off their debt obligations. The others who didn’t likely forwent paying back their loans or skated by, paying the bare minimum. One of human nature’s many quirks is the feedback loop towards instant gratification, something social media did not create but merely amplified. (Social media is mostly a mirror, not a toxin.) Debt service is usually far down the list of things a person would want to spend their cash flow on, but it is also a wise thing to do. But free will exists, so we cannot force people to make good choices.
The Biden Administration, via one of the many COVID relief bills, made student loan forgiveness tax-free. Debt forgiveness normally counts as income, so this was to relieve these same largely rich people from having a massive tax bill if Biden eventually decides to forgive student debt in some way. I am very much against making any debt forgiveness tax-free. It is simply rewarding bad behavior, which generates perverse incentives. We should never incentivize bad behavior, especially on a government level.
As I talk of solutions and how important they are often here, what’s my plan? First off, credentialism is likely not being browbeaten down without decades of hard work, so that problem is not getting fixed soon or easily. Like entitlement reform, it will likely blow up in our faces before we as a society ever do anything about it. Practically speaking, if we can’t fix credentialism, there are not many choices left to fix the problem as that is a societal one. But there are some things. I think budding lawyers and doctors should just be able to apply from high school. Why is a four-year degree a necessary requirement? Doesn’t make much sense to me, dawg. The biggest thing we can try to do is normalizing the Associate’s Degree. Anyone who got a four-year degree knows how small a percentage of the total credits they earned actually went to their major. Associate’s Degrees are more targeted towards a field of study and only take two years. If we moved towards a system that prioritized a set number of credits in a particular field of study, Associate’s Degrees would be incentivized.
Unfortunately, that system will make community college more expensive, which ties into another problem. Four-year college degrees are, to quote Bud Dink, very expensive. The core issue at hand with all that is the spigot of easy cash, backed by the federal government. The Obama Administration essentially nationalized the student loan program in his first year in office. Colleges, aware this spigot is likely never shutting off, have responded unwisely but rationally: If the money will always come, keep raising prices to get more money now and forever. With all this extra cash, the colleges have done something stupid: Spent very little of the money on good things. The classroom and the endowment would have been great places, but, inevitably, most colleges do not put all this extra cash to good use where it’ll do actual good for current and future students. Administration, with a forever expanding list of offices that do very little but “require” paid staff, has been getting a lion’s share of this extra money. And maybe some new building construction, a task that is usually supposed to be funded with alumni giving, a problem my university especially suffers from. (It’s tuition-to-endowment ratio for operations is lopsided 75% to 25% towards tuition; most top tier universities have it the other way around.)
Most of the money paid in tuition should go towards the classroom. A logic that everyone should agree to as a basic understanding, but you’d be wrong to think that. I think most of it should be spent to make current students happy while in college so that when they do reach success, they are more likely to give money to the university as alumni giving. Professors who can actually teach well and aren’t just making the class difficult for difficulty’s sake (experienced that too many times) and student life like computer labs and fun programs after class and on the weekends. I don’t care whether a professor is on the tenure track or an adjunct/professor of practice. All I want is a professor that doesn’t actively hate his or her students. Prioritizing research in a “publish or perish” environment to stay on the tenure track means tenure track professors see teaching as a requirement and not a joy. The best professors I had were the ones I liked talking to after class. Usually, these were professors of practice who were not on the tenure track. They taught because they enjoyed it, molding young minds. A lot of them had a job in the field they taught and did teaching as a side gig.
Moving on… I was in college when the financial crisis of 2008 happened. The night and day difference between student life programs in that school year and the one that followed it was stark. Guess where the diminished endowment money hole in the budget hit? Doesn’t stop my university from calling me at least twice a year hitting me up for an alumni donation. I usually talk to the student calling, as it is virtually always a current student on financial aid doing this for a set hourly wage, and ask how the campus is now and giving advice, recommending good professors if they’re still there. Last time I talked to the student for nearly twenty minutes. They got paid to get good advice. I bet they liked that.
The only forgiveness I truly support is for those who didn’t graduate, but this needs to be measured. Once forgiven, the credits earned become non-transferable and said dropout is then ineligible to return to the school they got those same credits from to finish their degree. I wish to avoid abuse of the system, a lost cause if there ever was one, but one I genuinely believe in. Maybe put a ten-year window on dropouts (some do return.) I do wish debt forgiveness to be taxed as income, as it and all such forgiveness should, but payment plans would likely need to be given for any new such tax obligations.
I graduated with zero student loan debt, largely thanks to my parents (same with both of my siblings.) I make a decent wage (I wish I made more,) but I currently have zero debt of any kind. I have a credit card I pay off at the beginning of every month like clockwork. I desire more savings, but that’s beside the point. I am a genuinely happy person. My fiancé was the final puzzle piece. I met her in late 2020. Having generally inexpensive hobbies like low-priced collectibles collecting and movies (the AMC Stubs A-List makes this a very cheap hobby) means I don’t spend extravagantly or above my means almost ever. This is what most people don’t want to hear in the student loan forgiveness debate, but it is what it is: You are ultimately responsible for your own choices. Politicians love to rob people whose votes they want of agency. And it is a tactic that works well. Telling people that their bad choices aren’t their fault is very comforting, but it is a sweet that eats away at the enamel of your soul. Prioritizing buying a Tesla over paying back your student loans sounds like a “you problem.”
A lot of that debt is for medical schools (doctors, nurses, vets, and dentists) and lawyers. They get a lot of debt because they’re going to have very high incomes.Report
You should take a listen to Andrew and Em talk about this. It’s very often not the case that these professionals make big money, especially right after graduation.
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5yZWRjaXJjbGUuY29tLzRiODdmMzc0LWNhY2UtNDRlYS05NjBjLTMwZjliZjM3YmNmZg/episode/ZDUwNzcyNjktNzExOS00YTA3LWFhYzMtOWU0OGFiZDEyNjU1?ep=14Report
It’s an important point that not everyone goes on to big law or some kind of high salary government or in house gig. Lots of attorneys get stuck in small law/eat what you kill arrangements without any kind of upward mobility or on the increasing precarious doc review circuit. I know some lawyers who dropped out of the profession altogether without ever practicing or still living hand to mouth later in life with no realistic hope of getting out of the debt.Report
I am begging literally everybody to stop writing about this without actually reading more than the four numbers that get shared around whatever their ideological circle is.Report
Good luckReport
Literally since Bernie brought this up in 2015 I’ve been complaining that nobody has actually understood the scope of this problem and mostly everyone who has been talking about it elides over a whole bunch of stuff that makes an *enormous* difference in both the scope and size of the problem to misrepresent what they’re actually proposing to do, and people keep doing it.
There are three chunks of student loan debt: federally subsidized Stafford Loans, un-subsidized Stafford Loans, and private institutional loans. Who gets how much of what and how much of it they still owe and how much they have to pay are spread over a scattergram that is so spread out it makes averages useless for impact analysis.Report
Interestingly this is a point that I believe some bankruptcy attorneys have been able to pick at with some successes here and there. There are some open question about what a student loan actually is for purposes of the code.Report
My go-to source is the College Board’s Trends in Student Aid report. This is enough to establish that claims of a national crisis or a generation buried under a mountain of debt are unfounded, but it’s missing a few details I’d like to see filled in. Do you know of a source with more detailed data?Report
Maybe I should write a post.Report
Please do. No really, please do.Report
I agree on the basic concept of no non-means tested, blanket forgiveness without reform first but….
I graduated with zero student loan debt, largely thanks to my parents
I’d have snipped the boot straps portion of this piece given the above.Report
Unfortunately, a ton of success is picking your parents well.Report
My friends call this the lucky sperm club. My kids are members, at least the student loan section.Report
You are never fixing the privilege of good parents.Report
At this point, is there anyone whose opinion has not been made on this subject? I feel like everyone has their opinions drawn in the sand and all the “debate” creates more heat than light.Report
There was a funny tweet that went around the other day:
If the tweet gets deleted, it said:
As analogies for the people opposing student loans go, it’s okay, I guess.
I’m also 100% down with comparing “this degree isn’t worth what I paid for it!” with cancer as well.
But maybe we shouldn’t be giving so many people cancer in the first place?Report
That tweet would make sense from a smoker.Report
I guess the weird thing to me about that tweet and all the folks embracing the logic is that we didn’t ‘cure’ anything… everyone still has cancer, they just gave it to their kids. And worse, since we didn’t actually cure it, we encouraged the kids to start smoking and and the cigarette makers to change their formulations to make them more addictive and as dangerous as they need to be.
And worse still, an entirely new generation will grow up and go to college to learn how to make tortured metaphors.Report
My wife and I paid off about $200K in grad school loans and I could care less if the government waves its magic wand tomorrow and made every bit of student loan debt in the land disappear. Yes, it’s bad policy, but we do bad policy every day. I wouldn’t lose a moment of sleep feeling like I’d gotten a raw deal. We did the things that we thought were best for us and it’s all turned out pretty good so far. I wish nothing but the best for everyone still dealing with school debt.
That said, I do have two minor beefs with this whole student loan forgiveness movement. One is that it’s an obviously regressive wealth transfer to a relatively well-off and politically important group of people. This is fine. Democracy is about advocating on your own behalf. Just stop telling me that this is some sort of progressive, social justice issue.
And two, stop telling me that there is a student loan crisis while also pushing back against anyone who suggests curtailing your discretionary spending or developing some budgeting and prioritization skills. No, it’s not a crisis if you’re still buying $5 lattes, avocado toast and trips to Tulum to snap pictures on your Tikety Toks and Instant Grams. Now, get off my lawn!
Sorry to play the Dutch Uncle, but politics is not magic. You have to find a way to make do in this world and waiting around for the government to bail you out is not necessarily the best way to do that, unless you happen to be a big bank or an oil company or the auto industry or the defense industry…Report
Hey, I am *MORE* than happy enough to say “We need to cure cancer!”
I’m just thinking that we should *ALSO* say “Quit smoking.”
If we have a massive problem with people purchasing degrees that are not worth the money they’re paying, then we need to have those degrees come with a warning on the side of the pack (at the very least).
Make it so that they can’t go to bars anymore.Report
Your third paragraph got me to smile, remembering an evening when I had started back to grad school in a PhD economics track. One of the other students found it astounding that I paid $3 to park my car on campus for an evening class, rather than parking for free some distance away and riding the free bus. I pointed at the Starbucks cup in her hand and asked, “Second today?” “Third,” she admitted. “What part of the lecture on revealed preferences did you not understand?”Report
As our current tax policies heavily favor these folks, I have no issues forgiving student loans. Nada.Report
No. Our current tax policies favor any entity willing to take a liability off the public balance sheet, which is how we got into this student loan mess in the first place.
I understand that the political economy of this issue is a little but counterintuitive, but it’s not exactly quantum mechanics. Politicians want to be seen as supporting higher education but they don’t want to raise taxes or change spending priorities enough to pay for it. So they subsidize a loan market, which gives the bank a near-guaranteed 6% return. Problem solved. Yay! Everybody loses.Report
But government does heavily subsidize higher education, not only through direct subsidies to universities and grants for low-income students, but also through subsidized loans to undergraduates with income-based repayment (graduate loans, on the other hand, are generally profitable for the government). Due to heavy subsidies, the price students are actually required to pay for undergrad degrees is quite reasonable.
AFAIK, the federal government no longer guarantees private student loans. Since 2010, all federal loans have been own issued and held by the federal government itself.Report
The government no longer guarantees private student loans. That program was ended in 2010, and all new federal loans since then have been issued and held by the federal government.
I had an extremely difficult time getting this comment to post, and I had to cut out a whole paragraph about how the government already does subsidize the hell out of college in central and undergrad in particular.
I’m not sure what triggered the spam filter.Report
People (regulars, even!) are going straight into the trash.
We’re investigating. (Short version: Friggin’ WordPress.)Report
Myth: See above.
Reality: The US tax system heavily favors low-income households, whose tax liability is a mere fraction of the cost of the government services they consume. Conversely, it heavily disfavors high-income households, which pay much more in taxes than it costs the government to service them. Households with high savings rates get a particularly bad deal due to the compounding effect of taxes on investment income.Report
So you’d prefer we tax the poor MORE? So they pay directly for government services used? Wow. Its audacious as a view point, but no ordinary not heavily online person would likely agree with it. Its also not really true either. Middle income and lower Americans pay progressive taxes on wages earned. Below a certain income level we don’t tax them because it would further impoverish them, meaning they’d need more services.
Elon Musk and his ilk pay lower tax rates on investment income – but only when they sell it and there’s a capitol gain. He lives off borrowed money that uses his investments as collateral. And so while he does pay more in absolute dollars then a poorer person, he’s also able to defer all sorts of tax burden. To say nothing of all the foregone tax receipts that are given to corporations and rich investor individuals based on significant misperceptions about their worth economically.
If Elon Musk “deserves” a potion of the 2017 Tax cuts, then ordinary Americans certainly deserve relief from burdensome student debt.Report
I think the basic issue is that looking at this in terms of ‘takers’ versus ‘givers’ really doesn’t make any sense at the scales involved nor the practical issues on the ground.Report
InMD is right. Trying to figure out the net tax payers and net beneficiaries of the tax system would require assigning values to a whole bunch of subjective factors.
What’s the value of the US’ rule of law protections relative to other places? What’s the value of social transfers that are run for the benefit of the bureaucratic class or that actively harm you?
And even if you could answer those questions and assign the relevant values, do any of you feel like you have enough of a grasp on the federal tax code to say with certainty who is making out and who is getting taken? I don’t. And public finance is what I do for a living. Even accountants and tax attorneys are only going to have real insight into small pieces of the system.
What we have in America is a really complicated system of cross-subsidies and negotiated tax benefits. And the whole point of that system is to make it near impossible to figure out who is paying for what, because politicians find that helpful in justifying whatever they want at any given moment.Report
Very, sadly, true.
That said, if we can “afford” to give large corporations and the ultra wealthy $1.7 Trillion in foregone federal revenue which largely got pulled out of the economy through stock buybacks, we can “afford” to forgive student loans across the board in the same amount – the vast majority of which will go into a variety of economic activities.
This isn’t hard.Report
So if I own two houses I can afford to buy another two?
Oh and it must be money well spent?Report
If you own two houses, and buy two more, but get refunded the full purchase price of the second two and the property taxes for them in perpetuity, which you then take out of economic circulation because you can, I don’t really see getting huffy about me wanting the money back for my second two houses when I’m gonna spend that money and keep it in the economy where it generates additional revenue for businesses and taxes for services I use.Report
Word salad.Report
Elon and his ilk don’t exist at the level of finance we’re talking about. They don’t have enough money.
There is an argument for outlawing borrowing money by using investments as collateral. Doing that helps “fairness” somewhat (whatever that means) but won’t move the needle for either inequality nor the US deficit.Report
Only because we keep pretending that the investment revenue he receives as compensation – which he then borrows against to meet his living expenses – is somehow so different as “money” that it needn’t be taxed in a way that wage earners are taxed. That’s part of the folley here, and frankly if he were taxed more proportionally – if businesses were taxed more proportionally that would effect the debt and deficit.Report
This is wishful thinking, not math.
The math of it says Musk is one guy who spends tens of millions of dollars a year (thus has that as an income) while the middle class earns Trillions.
We have 124 million households and their average income rounds to $70k. So America has something like $8.7 Trillion in income that we tax.
How many people do we have like Musk? Do we even have 10? If we have 100 (we don’t) and each spends $10 million that we reclassify as income, that’s an extra $1 Billion that we’d have to tax for income taxes.
That 8.7 changes to 8.701.
If we want to assume Must and his 99 fellows each spend $100 million a year, then that’s 8.71. Still a rounding error and I’m making awe inspiringly bad handwaves in your favor.Report