2021 Oscars Projections: Turn Of The Year Edition
The last time I wrote about the upcoming Oscars race was on Halloween eve after the major fall film festivals had their showings; and now as we look a brand new year in the face with a little over a month away from nominations morning, the race feels like it has dramatically changed as much as President Biden’s approval ratings did in the fall. Granted six of the movies that I had in my ten nominees for Best Picture all the way back in the Spring remain in the race with all but one or two arguably locks to get in. But as the late releases screened and came out to the public, some films saw some heavy blows to them allowing others to surge into the conversation if not even be favored to get into the final ten. Performances that seemed like locks to get in much less win have taken hits as well since then, with some whose chances seemed dead months ago getting a second chance thanks to the critics awards that are currently ongoing as I write this. The shortlists for shorts (no pun intended) and below the line tech categories were revealed right before I started on this piece as well and we can gleam from them which films have the longest or shortest odds to rack up nominations.
As of now I believe six or seven films are pretty much locked in to get nominated for Best Picture and I believe the top three who have the best shots to win it all are coming down to the film festival audience awards’ dominating Belfast, the critical darling that has been racking up wins at their respective awards in The Power Of The Dog, and my issues with it aside I have to be objective and admit West Side Story has gotten the buzz it needed to be that big spectacle musical to represent all the musicals we got this year that can go all the way.
West Side’s biggest obstacle will be that it didn’t screen at festivals which has been a major and important marker for every Best Picture winner over the last decade and a half as many Academy members that attend those festivals tend to discover films they build up passionate fanbases for at them. It also bombed at the box office as yet another victim in an era where big popcorn blockbusters are what most come to the theatres for now, and dramas that elderly audiences come to see still can’t get them to brave the pandemic. There was a lot of hope from Hollywood that it would be the big epic awards movie that would drive audiences back to the theatres in Christmas time, but instead it did worse on its opening weekend domestically than a musical I believe should be getting the love its gotten in In The Heights. That said the movie does have high audience scores and a lot of industry folks have been championing it as their favorite musical of the year; not to mention its also a heavy favorite to win the Golden Globes’ Best Comedy/Musical category which is a major precursor to being able to win it all on Oscars night.
If you only based your predictions on the critics The Power Of The Dog would be the heavy favorite to win it all. The film is making many Best of the Year lists among them and racking up win after win at critics circles. Personally its one of my favorites of the year as well and I can see why its gotten the momentum it has to go all the way. The big problem with predicting this to win though is the often forgotten fact among the bubble critics and cinephiles get themselves in that it simply doesn’t play strong with general audiences. As I write this the movie is in the nineties with critics on Rotten Tomatoes, but is in the low sixties and on the verge of a rotten score with audiences on that site. I’ve talked to plenty regular folks who gave the movie a try and came back telling me it bored them. While the Academy isn’t watching exactly what the normal movie-goer is, they also aren’t as inclined to the critical darlings sometimes. For instance in 2018 when Green Book upset Roma many were shocked, but when you look at the audiences scores you see that the former was much more entertaining to audiences than the latter. I’m sure this movie will find a passionate fanbase among members and it may just go all the way, but I guarantee you some members won’t be as impressed and not place it so high on their preferential ballot.
The film that I still think is the frontrunner to win is Belfast. I don’t say that just because I personally adored the film (Its my personal #2 of the year behind In The Heights), but because the movie dominated film festivals’ audience awards, screened at all the right places, hit all the precursor nominations the aforementioned The Power Of The Dog did and even out-performed and won at a few critics circles, and has incredibly high audience scores for a small British film. Even the American Institute of Film felt they needed to give it a special recognition price even though the movie was outside the type of films they cover (American produced movies), something they’ve only done for movies like Roma and Parasite which went extremely far into the race with the latter winning. There seems to be a contingent on Film Twitter and elsewhere who have tried to create a narrative that the movie has lost its favored status but the data in front of me says otherwise. While many hardcore cinephiles think this movie is “just fine”, many audiences have fallen in love with it and I believe if the Oscars were held today it would win Best Picture, Best Director (Though this race is much more wide open), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actor (A wide open race for this one as well though).
As for the locks to get nominated but not necessarily a threat to win I believe Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest in Licorice Pizza (Which has won a few Best Picture prizes with some critics) and the likely tech category sweeper in Dune round out the top five. After that the divisive but popular with the Academy Adam McKay’s latest in Don’t Look Up and the bio-pic hit of the year in King Richard are arguably in that borderline of lock to get nominations as the sixth and seventh films. That leaves three slots for a year where ten will be guaranteed and that’s where I think things get more tricky. I still have the very well received The Tragedy Of Macbeth in as the eight film but that’s a movie that might be too Shakespearian and niche to sneak in. The second most well received musical in awards season in Tick, Tick…Boom! and the movie I underestimated until I could no longer keep doing so in CODA make out the final two slots. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the final three (especially those last two) don’t get in as I truly believe there are at least twenty other movies that could conceivably sneak into those final slots with varying degrees of possibility.
As with my last piece on the race, I’ve jotted down all my predictions for nominees in every category with a rating that matches up with where I think that particular race is right now. This time I’ve added the shorts since we got a shortlist of them and I’ve also added notes on which other films or performances to keep an eye on that I believe are on the cusp of getting a nomination alongside some tidbits from me about my thinking in each category. Remember these are my objective thoughts on how these races seem to be shaping up, not necessarily what I personally would nominate in each category even though there is some crossover here between my personal favorites of the year. Overall I think a lot of races are still wide open as the industry still hasn’t shown us their hands and its been just mostly critics and film journalists that have had their say. There is still time for plenty of these races to shift dramatically as the guilds start to hand out their nominations and wins in the coming month and we get closer and closer to nominations morning.
BEST PICTURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Belfast
#2. The Power Of The Dog
#3. West Side Story
#4. Licorice Pizza
#5. Dune
#6. Don’t Look Up
#7. King Richard
#8. The Tragedy Of Macbeth
#9. Tick, Tick…Boom!
#10. CODA
– Current Rating: Tilts Belfast
– 20 Others To Keep An Eye On: A Hero; Being The Ricardos; C’mon C’mon; Cyrano; Drive My Car; Flee; Encanto; House Of Gucci; The Mitchells VS The Machines; Nightmare Alley; No Time To Die; Mass; Passing; Pig; Spider-Man: No Way Home; Spencer; Summer Of Soul; The French Dispatch; The Harder They Fall; The Lost Daughter
– Notes: I’ve made my points on what I think gets in here and why I think Belfast remains the movie to beat, so I’ll instead focus on what films to keep an eye on to get into the final two or three slots. Japan’s Drive My Car has emerged as the big international film that is racking up Best Picture contention among critics and it may just have the support to sneak into the race so look out for that one. Aaron Sorkin’s latest in Being The Ricardos has gotten some mixed reviews but the Academy traditionally loves his stuff and I wouldn’t be too surprised if it still got into the final ten, ditto with former Best Director winner Guillermo Del Toro’s newest film Nightmare Alley which for a long time was in my predicted ten. And that’s not a typo you see above, the shortlists seem to hint that the latest James Bond flick No Time To Die and the highest scoring film on Letterboxd and with audiences in Spider-Man: No Way Home seem to be doing well as popcorn flicks with the Academy. I’m not predicting either to get in but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if one or both found a way to sneak in as the big populist flick in a year where only one box office hit in Dune is favored to get a nomination.
BEST DIRECTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
#2. Jane Campion (The Power Of The Dog)
#3. Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
#4. Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
#5. Denis Villenueve (Dune)
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Coen (The Tragedy Of Macbeth); Del Toro (Nightmare Alley); Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter); Hamaguchi (Drive My Car); McKay (Don’t Look Up); Miranda (Tick, Tick…Boom!)
– Notes: This is a wide open race which might surprise some who believe Jane Campion is sweeping. But remember that only critics and film journalists have been giving out awards and her film is not as big a hit outside that bubble. For that reason I’m still thinking the Best Picture winner also gets Best Director but with Belfast perhaps winning as the crowd pleaser more than a filmmaking marvel, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was one of those years where there was a split between the two categories. There’s also always a big surprise snub and nomination here so keep an eye out for say Drive My Car‘s Hamaguchi knocking out someone from the five come nominations morning though I’m not quite ready to predict something like that just yet.
BEST ACTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power Of The Dog)
#2. Will Smith (King Richard)
#3. Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick…Boom!)
#4. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy Of Macbeth)
#5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Bardem (Being The Ricardos); Cage (Pig); Cooper (Nightmare Alley); Dinklage (Cyrano); Hoffman (Licorice Pizza); Phoenix (C’mon C’mon)
– Notes: Many were ready to crown Will Smith and just send him the Oscar already after his performance in King Richard, but from day one I’ve been muted on being so cocksure. Critics circles have ignored him and given the award to others (One group even gave Clint Eastwood one for his performance in Cry Macho) and Benedict Cumberbatch has become the popular choice for his role in The Power Of The Dog. At the same time these are critics and film journalists not the industry and Smith was always going to be an industry pick more so than a critical darling. I see this as a wide open race with many potential turns. For now I think Cumberbatch, Smith, Washington, and even Garfield all have paths to win it all.
BEST ACTRESS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Nicole Kidman (Being The Ricardos)
#2. Kristin Stewart (Spencer)
#3. Lady Gaga (House Of Gucci)
#4. Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye)
#5. Olivia Coleman (The Lost Daughter)
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Haim (Licorice Pizza); Hudson (Respect); Lawrence (Don’t Look Up); McDormand (The Tragedy Of Macbeth); Thompson (Passing); Zegler (West Side Story)
– Notes: A lot of wins for this category have gone to Kristin Stewart and her role in Spencer. I don’t think she’s as much of the lock to win the big prize others think she is though because her film is even less liked outside the critics bubble than The Power Of The Dog is (I personally really liked Spencer). Nicole Kidman’s performance as Lucille Ball in Being The Ricardos has gotten a lot of industry buzz and even though House Of Gucci was divisive in its reception Lady Gaga’s performance was a big positive for the film in both her star power energizing it to decent box office and winning her some awards. I still think this one is a wide open race and would be careful to crown Stewart just yet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
#2. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power Of The Dog)
#3. Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
#4. Jared Leto (House Of Gucci)
#5. Troy Kutsur (CODA)
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Affleck (The Tender Bar); De Jesus (Tick, Tick…Boom!); Faist (West Side Story); Issacs (Mass); Plemons (The Power Of The Dog); Simmons (Being The Ricardos)
– Notes: Arguably the most wide open of the four acting categories, this seems to be coming down to Hinds’ performance in Belfast and Smit-McPhee’s in The Power Of The Dog in what COULD be an Oscars night precursor of which film wins Best Picture. That said Troy Kotsur’s MVP performance in CODA has also been gaining big momentum and he may just come from behind and get the win. This is a race that could become chaotic with different wins everywhere. And remember the industry hasn’t shown their hand yet, so perhaps some on the bubble performances could still get in and even win on the night of?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Ariana Debose (West Side Story)
#2. Kirsten Dunst (The Power Of The Dog)
#3. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
#4. Aunjuane Ellis (King Richard)
#5. Ruth Negga (Passing)
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Blanchett (Nightmare Alley); Dench (Belfast); Dowd (Mass); Matlin (CODA); Moreno (West Side Story); Streep (Don’t Look Up)
– Notes: Yet another wide open acting category with the top three Best Picture contenders having ladies in the fight and with all three conceivably winning. Debose from West Side Story SEEMS to have become the early frontrunner but the industry could decide to give it to Balfe given she’s in one of their favorite movies or even award Dunst in a film that could go all the way. Not to mention Ellis and her performance in King Richard could capture some hearts. Then there’s the fifth slot which I think will be where a snub and surprise nomination could come from.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Belfast
#2. Licorice Pizza
#3. Don’t Look Up
#4. King Richard
#5. Being The Ricardos
– Current Rating: Tilts Belfast
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: C’mon C’mon; Mass; Pig; The French Dispatch; The Harder They Fall; The Mitchells Versus The Machines
– Notes: This one seems to be coming down to Belfast and Licorice Pizza versus everyone else and if Belfast wins Best Picture it should win here. If it doesn’t, Belfast has likely come up short to win the big prize. Look for Paul Thomas Anderson to potentially finally get his own Oscar here if Licorice Pizza wins, but for now I’m going with my predicted Best Picture winner.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. The Power Of The Dog
#2. West Side Story
#3. Dune
#4. CODA
#5. The Lost Daughter
– Current Rating: Tilts The Power Of The Dog
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Drive My Car; House Of Gucci; Nightmare Alley; Passing; The Tragedy Of Macbeth; Tick, Tick…Boom!
– Notes: If The Power Of The Dog is favored past critics groups to win anything it may just be Adapted Screenplay though an upset by another film here could signal a Best Picture upset from one of the other contenders. For now I’m thinking this is where the film is most likely to win an award even if it has a bad night.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Encanto
#2. The Mitchells VS The Machines
#3. Luca
#4. Flee
#5. Belle
– Current Rating: Tilts Encanto
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Cryptozoo, Raya And The Last Dragon, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Sing 2; Summit Of The Gods, Vivo
– Notes: This is a category usually dominated by Pixar but ironically in a year where my personal favorite animated film is the Pixar flick, it seems to be coming down to Disney’s Encanto and the Netflix and Sony beloved The Mitchells VS The Machines. The latter has racked up a ton of critics and film journalists’ love and has even seen a Best Picture campaign, but it also had a big hit to its chances when the Golden Globes snubbed it. The Academy traditionally goes with the big popular Disney flick and this year that’s Encanto which I do think will win, but its gonna’ be close.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Us Again
#2. The Windshield Wiper
#3. Step Into The River
#4. Robin Robin
#5. Only A Child
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Affairs Of The Art; Flowing Home; Mum Is Pouring Rain; Namoo; Souvernir Souvernir; The Musician
– Notes: I don’t really have much to say when it comes to shorts, and I’m honestly going off the betting markets here which traditionally have been good predictors of these.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Drive My Car
#2. A Hero
#3. Flee
#4. The Worst Person In The World
#5. The Hand Of God
– Current Rating: Tilts Drive My Car
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Compartment No. 6; Hive; I’m Your Man; Lamb; Prayers For The Stolen; The Good Boss
– Notes: Shockwaves rippled through the awards watcher world when France’s Titane got snubbed from the shortlist here but given that film is about a serial killer fornicating with a car and having its baby, I can’t say I’m surprised as someone who always doubted its chances. I think France would still be in the race had it gone with the more innocent and still supernatural Petite Maman which is my personal favorite international film of the year, but alas my second favorite in Japan’s Drive My Car is the clear early frontrunner as its emerged as an on the bubble Best Picture contender as well. After that we have Iran’s A Hero and the groundbreaking Danish documentary Flee as likely nominees. The final two slots might be more wide open but for now I give them to Norway’s very well reviewed The Worst Person In The World and Italy’s Netflix backed The Hand Of God which at one point I even had as a Best Picture nominee.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. When The Sun Sets
#2. The Long Goodbye
#3. Tala’vision
#4. Frimas
#5. Censor Of Dreams
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Distances; Les Grandes Claques; The Criminals; The Dress; Under The Heavens; You’re Dead Helen
– Notes: I don’t really have much to say when it comes to shorts, and I’m honestly going off the betting markets here which traditionally have been good predictors of these.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Summer Of Soul
#2. Flee
#3. The Rescue
#4. Procession
#5. The First Wave
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Attica; Ascension; In The Same Breath; Julia; The Velvet Underground; Writing With Fire
– Notes: Notoriously the hardest of the categories to predict nominations for and infamous for some of the biggest surprise snubs in Oscars history, I cautiously make my projections for these with Summer Of Soul, Flee, and The Rescue making many rounds as contenders for this prize and thus my top three picks. After that I go with the Netflix backed Procession and the COVID related doc in The First Wave. One thing I’m looking at is what happened last year when a bunch of social justice documentaries dominated the conversation but ultimately the crowd pleasing film about a man befriending an Octopus emerged the favorite and won on the night of. This year the field was filled with bio docs but it seems like films about breaking away and being rescued (no pun intended) have become the go to for voters.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Three Songs For Benazir
#2. The Queen Of Basketball
#3. Coded
#4. Terror Contagion
#5. When We Were Bullies
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: A Broken House; Audible; Camp Confidential; Day Of Rage; Lynching Postcards; Takeover
– Notes: I don’t really have much to say when it comes to shorts, and I’m honestly going off the betting markets here which traditionally have been good predictors of these.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. “No Time To Die” (No Time To Die)
#2. “Be Alive” (King Richard)
#3. “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
#4. “Down To Joy” (Belfast)
#5. “Just Look Up” (Don’t Look Up)
– Current Rating: Tilts “No Time To Die” (No Time To Die)
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: “Beyond The Shore” (CODA); “Guns Go Bang” (The Harder They Fall); “Here I Am, Singing My Way Home” (Respect); “So May We Start” (Annette); “Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days); “Your Song Saved My Life” (Sing 2)
– Notes: Its lazy and a trope for the Oscars, but the latest Bond flick song seems to be the early frontrunner to win it all though Beyonce’s song for King Richard is hot on its heels. Not surprisingly a Disney animated film’s song is favored to get into the race, but to my legit surprise Belfast‘s original song has been making many rounds in this race and if it gets nominated I think its another strong indicator of how beloved that movie is. The fact no original song for musicals like Cyrano (Which I still think has an outside shot of breaking into the Best Picture race super late) and In The Heights (Its chances are long gone) didn’t make the shortlists tells you the Academy has made their choice on which musicals they’re recognizing and its probably West Side Story and Tick, Tick…Boom! which didn’t feature any original music.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune
#2. The Power Of The Dog
#3. Don’t Look Up
#4. Encanto
#5. The Harder They Fall
– Current Rating: Tilts Dune
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Being The Ricardos; No Time To Die; Spencer; The French Dispatch; The Green Knight; The Tragedy Of Macbeth
– Notes: If The Power Of The Dog is gonna’ win best Picture look for it to upset here over likely tech sweeper Dune, and if Encanto gets a nomination here its probably a near lock to win Best Animated Feature. If No Time To Die gets a nomination though, it could be an early indication on nominations morning that it might just sneak into the Best Picture race.
BEST SOUND: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune
#2. Belfast
#3. West Side Story
#4. No Time To Die
#5. Spider-Man: No Way Home
– Current Rating: Tilts Dune
– 5 Others To Keep An Eye On: A Quiet Place Part II; Last Night In Soho; The Power Of The Dog; The Matrix Resurrections; Tick, Tick…Boom!
– Notes: Dune is likely to make most of its noise on below the line tech sweeps and its no different in this category. It might just end up Dune versus everyone else. If The Power Of The Dog is gonna’ win Best Picture though look for it to get a nomination here and if either No Time To Die or Spider-Man: No Way Home gets a nomination, it MIGHTbe an early indication on nominations morning that either one or both might just sneak into the Best Picture race.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune
#2. The Tragedy Of Macbeth
#3. Belfast
#4. The Power Of The Dog
#5. West Side Story
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: C’mon C’mon; Nightmare Alley; Passing; Spencer; The French Dispatch; The Green Knight
– Notes: Traditionally the Academy are suckers for black and white films here but with so many black and white movies to split the vote my guess is the likely tech sweeper in Dune could just win this one though The Power Of The Dog or West Side Story could also win here especially if either are on their way to a Best Picture win.
BEST FILM EDITING: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune
#2. Belfast
#3. The Power Of The Dog
#4. West Side Story
#5. Don’t Look Up
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: King Richard; Licorice Pizza; Nightmare Alley; No Time To Die; Spider-Man: No Way Home; Tick, Tick…Boom!
– Notes: With film editing you usually expect top tier Best Picture contenders to get nominated so if No Time To Die or Spider-Man: No Way Home get nominated here, start wondering if their names are coming up in the Best Picture slate. Dune is a potential winner here given its likely tech domination.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune
#2. The Matrix: Resurrections
#3. No Time To Die
#4. Spider-Man: No Way Home
#5. Free Guy
– Current Rating: Leans Dune
– 5 Others To Keep An Eye On: Black Widow; Eternals; Ghostbusters: Afterlife; Godzilla VS Kong; Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings
– Notes: This is honestly Dune versus everyone else with popcorn flicks that are on the bubble like No Time To Die and Spider-Man: No Way Home probably NEEDING a nomination here to have a shot at a Best Picture nomination. Its also where history can be made as if Godzilla VS Kong gets nominated, it’d be the first time ever that a Godzilla film got nominated for an Oscar, something a few Kong films have pulled off. If you know me, I’d be very happy if that happened though I’m not quite personally ready to predict that just yet.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune
#2. Belfast
#3. West Side Story
#4. The Tragedy Of Macbeth
#5. Nightmare Alley
– Current Rating: Tilts Dune
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Being The Ricardos; Cruella; Cyrano; No Time To Die; The French Dispatch; The Power Of The Dog
– Notes: Another likely Dune win but another category that could tell us lots on likely above the line performance. If you see No Time To Die get in here a Best Picture nominee becomes less unlikely, if Nightmare Alley misses here then its chances to get back into the Best Picture race are practically nil, and if Belfast or The Power Of The Dog were to get in here it would be a major sign either film can go all the way.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Cruella
#2. House Of Gucci
#3. Dune
#4. West Side Story
#5. Spencer
– Current Rating: Leans Cruella
– 6 Others To Keep An Eye On: Belfast; Cyrano; Nightmare Alley; The French Dispatch; The Power Of The Dog; The Tragedy Of Macbeth
– Notes: One of only two tech categories I’m not bullish on Dune‘s chances in though I do see it getting nominated. This has seemingly been Cruella‘s race to lose since the film came out way back on Memorial Day weekend and nothing seems to have changed since then.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
#2. Cruella
#3. House Of Gucci
#4. Dune
#5. Coming 2 America
– Current Rating: Tossup
– 5 Others To Keep An Eye On: Cyrano; Nightmare Alley; No Time To Die; The Suicide Squad; West Side Story
– Notes: The other tech category I see Dune getting a nomination in but not a win. This seems like a heated three way battle between The Eyes Of Tammy Faye, House Of Gucci, and Cruella but keep an eye out on something like Coming 2 America or The Suicide Squad getting that fifth nomination. Also if either Nightmare Alley or No Time To Die has any shot to sneak into the Best Picture race an early sign of doing so on nominations morning would be either or both getting a nomination here.
