Some interesting numbers from Punchbowl News and their anonymous survey of Capitol Hill staffers:
→ 54% of all staffers believe that Democrats will eventually lift the debt limit through reconciliation.
→ 61% of Democrats believe Republicans will control the House next Congress. Just 39% of Democrats believe their party will keep the House.
→ 64% of all staffers say Democrats will keep the Senate. 43% of Republicans staffers say so, and 84% of Democratic staffers.
→ 62% of respondents believe that their bosses agree with President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. 64% disagree with how it was carried out. Just 21% agree with how the withdrawal was handled.
→ 84% of senior staffers believe that the state of the economy will be the decisive issue in the 2022 midterm elections. 61% of respondents said Covid-19 would be the top issue.
The interesting thing about this survey is who is being surveyed. Staffers have a whole lot of skin in the game, knowledge of what is going on, and a perspective different from their elected employers and the news media that covers them. With the focus of Washington on the quagmire that the three-headed legislative monster that is the debt limit–infrastructure–budget reconciliation is at the moment, there is plenty of activity on Capitol Hill but not a lot of actual movement. And behind all that activity is the 31K odd congressional staffers, assistances, and employees for the legislative branch that make the unwieldy machinations of government work…or whatever it is that our current government is passing off as working.
For what it is worth, my own way-too-early prediction for the midterms lines up with these numbers. Plenty can happen in the next 13 months of course, but if you asked right now I would proffer that the House goes to the Republicans, the Senate stays split or narrowly Democratic. As we have detailed before, the debt limit is going to be raised, it is just a matter of what method is used. And the Afghanistan numbers check out; most folks knew we were leaving, and it was time, but didn’t like the way it went down and questioned the Biden Administration’s handling of the withdraw.
Our congress critters are not covering themselves in glory right now, and their public conduct makes questions as to their in-touchness fair, but the folks behind the scenes seem to have a good handle on the situation at hand.
