What The Biden Administration is Not Saying About Afghanistan Is Getting Louder
The disjointed and, frankly, lackadaisical public response of the Biden Administration to the events in Afghanistan begs some questions. With the president not taking any questions other than a sit down with George Stephanopoulos, it’s falling to various officials to face the press.
But first that Stephanopoulos sit down. To be fair here, these are clipped by ABC as promotions (full clips and transcript available here) and is not the full version, but this line of reasoning pretty much has been the president and his team’s position since the evacuation started:
EXCLUSIVE: Pressed on whether the U.S.’s exit from Afghanistan could have been handled better, Pres. Biden tells @GStephanopoulos, “The idea that somehow, there’s a way to have gotten out without chaos ensuing—I don’t know how that happens.” https://t.co/mH1AyWI5lb pic.twitter.com/giTMWCuub5
— ABC News (@ABC) August 19, 2021
Once again, the president defends any criticism about the handling of the failure of Kabul and the frantic effort to evacuate to the Kabul airport as unavoidable, pointing out there was going to be chaos when America pulled out regardless of when that was. That last part is inarguably true. The first part is a dodge, and one the president is using again and again. The inevitability of chaos after we left — something we cannot control — does not in any way mitigate mistakes made or make any questioning of how the US and allies handled the run up to that leaving — something we could control — invalid. The fact that there was a mad scramble, that Americans and their allies are not secure at the airport, and that the airport security situation is reliant on the Taliban behaving themselves all scream out the planning was insufficient. Pointing out the failures of the last twenty years of policy doesn’t give the current president a pass from criticism for his handling of Afghanistan during his seven months in office. A seven months in which he, by his own admission, knew a time like this was coming.
As to the speed of the collapse in Afghanistan, Gen. Milley took that one from the podium.
Gen. Mark Milley says “the intelligence clearly indicated multiple scenarios were possible” in drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, adding: “There was nothing that I or anyone else saw that indicated the collapse of…this government in 11 days.” https://t.co/85JfnhdhGJ pic.twitter.com/BQKqJFgYmn
— ABC News (@ABC) August 19, 2021
That’s a very carefully worded, very specific answer. It comes off like a parent awaking in the morning to find the last brownie eaten, and when questioning a child what happened over night and did they know about the last brownie they answered, “There was no way I or my siblings could have known that a brownie was eaten at 2:45am”. That wasn’t answering the question, but you gave a specific answer that is technically correct to make it sound like it was. If internet nobodies like me were pointing out in June the Taliban was sweeping through the country, for the US command structure to say they didn’t know is either epic incompetence or a lie. Or a coverup for either. Or a combination of both, authored by folks in the chain of command, meaning the Milleys of the administration can’t or won’t say out loud which it is.
Speaking of saying things out loud, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said something out loud that, after sleeping on it, is more and more bothersome:
Reporter: “Do you have the capability to go out and collect Americans?”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: “We don’t have the capability to go out and collect up large numbers of people” https://t.co/euK8G9Skz3 pic.twitter.com/aTQKOQeT1Q
— Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) August 18, 2021
Again, most of the things he is saying are inarguably true. The secure perimeter of the Kabul runway is the only thing keeping this embarrassment from turning into a full-blown disaster with a body count. So far, the Taliban has kept their fighters in line, and the American and allied forces seem to have the airfield itself back under at least nominal control from the mess we saw on Monday. Long may it last, but this is a dangerous situation with a lot of potential to go wrong. The United States shouldn’t have our forces in this vulnerable position a moment longer than absolutely necessary.
But it’s that “capability” phrasing that really sticks out here. All due respect to Secretary, and retired 4-star General, Lloyd Austin but what the hell is he talking about? Of course, we have the “capability” to go get our folks who are in the city and elsewhere if we wanted to. Clearly, a decision has been made that we are not going to do that, probably correctly thinking it would take the paper-thin security situation between the Taliban and US forces from knife-edge to bloodshed. “Capability” sure came off there as reflexive command speak from the long-time soldier turned administration official. The military’s “capability” here isn’t an ability to perform the task; it is having been told they are not going to do so. Of course, Secretary Austin can’t say that at the podium, so in the best Crash Davis tradition of How To Do A Press Conference he leaned on his old clichés to say lots of meaningful sounding words without saying what they really mean.
The feel the American public is getting from the Biden Administration is one of being told one thing while another thing is clearly going on. It is very evident both in what is being said, not being said, and in the administration’s handling of the Afghanistan crisis with a shocking lack of a sense of urgency that there has been a deal struck with the Taliban, and all other plans hinge on the Taliban honoring that deal and letting America and its allies leave in relative peace. The Biden Administration that spent most of the summer prior to this past weekend wanting credit for making the hard call on Afghanistan, should level with the American people and our allies what that deal consists of, why it was necessary, and what we promised them from our end in return.
Maybe such a deal was the best option of a whole lot of bad ones. But for the Biden Administration that looks like it’s doing a lot of hoping, wishing, and scrambling where planning should have been, it’s only going to raise more and more questions. If somehow America gets out of this crisis without a loss of life, the American people will probably lose interest and move on. But with even our closest allies criticizing American leadership in the Afghanistan evacuation mess, the effect will be felt for a long time whether talked about domestically or not.
GB, Germany, France say, in a joint statement, that Iran must halt “making a nuclear bomb” activities.
Note who’s not on the list?
Biden is not talking to anyone, even our closest allies.
I say this in all seriousness: Biden is not capable of handling this.
He has good days, and bad days, as all people with dementia do.
But he is no longer allowed to make decisions on anything.
Harris made the “calls” on Afghanistan (aka her military gave her
carefully scripted briefings that “told her” what to do).
No one in the world is taking Biden’s military seriously at this point in time.
Nuclear weapons or not, they do not believe that America will stop anything.
Taiwan, Israel, our closest allies are endangered.
Biden should resign.Report
So tell me – how do you feel about Trump releasing back somewhere around 5000 taliban prisoners when he negotiated the withdrawal? Thats a sizable force afterall.
Oh, and those prisoners included the guy who is now in charge in Kabul. Was that a good call?Report
Given that the prison break in Kabul was of 8000 prisoners, and actively occurred before/during the fall of Kabul… I’m going to ask “where were those prisoners, and were they actively a security threat?”
Trump’s DOD was pretty competent (I know someone on it, they were hired under Clinton).Report
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51689443
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2020/08/16/kabul-begins-release-of-final-400-taliban-prisoners-called-for-in-us-agreement/
Trump put 5000 battle trained Taliban back into action a year ago. Now you believe what you want but that seems to me to be a strategic failure that contributed to the rapid fall of Kabul last week.Report
The Taliban was outnumbered 4 to 1 in this “fight.”
Troop numbers were immaterial.
This was a Public Relations Fight, and the Taliban won.
The CIA’s seeming inability to notice the Taliban calling every phone in the country through Whatsapp… now that’s a bigger problem. But the CIA’s been dead for years.
That the Biden DOD couldn’t lay down caltrops or use drones to effectively stall for time is an indication that the rot is really, really deep. This isn’t just “top level people were willfully blind.”Report
Are we mad that we leaving, or just looking bad while doing so?Report
We mad that we looked so utterly incompetent that we have jeopardized ALL of our national security objectives.
Don’t mind the leavin’, truly.
Endless war ain’t my style.
Wish people would look at facts, and realize that Trump The Bombastic was actually a dove.
The Taliban was always going to have Afghanistan. But a 6 month orderly exit, as planned for by the sort of people who “Plan for the Fall of Kabul…”Report
The Taliban’s numbers matter in that they started in territory they controlled and could hold and then fanned out, mostly by bribing local and regional officials. Plus the afghan government – conditioned to have the US back stop them, made strategic blunders with what troops they controlled.
But sure, adding 5,000 fighters to the force last year is something we don’t need to worry about at all. Cause that wasn’t a strategic blunder that’s easily laid at a president’s feet or anything.Report
Three names in three comments.
Clearly trying to evade the block button.
And promoting crazy conspiracies at that.Report
To quote Matt Yglesias:
“Did Biden make the right call on Afghanistan?
We asked 27 former senior national security officials now working as defense contractors whose work there failed on every level.
Their verdict — definitely blame Biden and not themselves. And keep the money coming!”
The fact that the official government collapsed so quickly shows that we spend twenty years funneling money into something that would never stand up on its own. Also lots of young Americans died for no reason but many defense contractors became very rich.Report
And many of the people now at those contracting firms were sent there to make smooth landing pads for people like Secretary Austin and General Miley. Those pads are now, I suspect, in some jeopardy.Report
That’s a silly argument. Not even an argument, really, just an implied smear. Are the former officials wrong? Doesn’t matter, the well is poisoned, we can move on.
There’s a difference between strategy, tactics, and logistics. I’ve been to some bad concerts where the parking lot traffic moved smoothly. Even if every single former official had made nothing but mistakes, we can look at the withdrawal process and be critical of it.Report
I’m sure the defense contractors are part of it, but the politicians themselves got something important out of keeping things going for so long – not having to admit they had failed. Politicians don’t like to admit they are wrong and they really don’t like to be shown clearly and publicly that they are wrong.
It takes a lot of strength to admit such a large policy endeavour has failed.Report
SO from deep in the bowels of the non-security side of the federal apparatus, The Secretary and the General are making what hay they can with what they have been dealt. And they know they and their people are on borrowed time, what with both House and Senate Committees already announcing hearings. Lower level officers and operative are quietly packing their offices in anticipation of finding their resignation letters crafted for them one morning.
All of which is to say the generals and the secretaries and such didn’t want to hear the assessments of their own professionals, and now to cover their own butts they are trying to cover their people while they also clean house of anyone who could tell a different story. They are also playing their own political game – the swift withdrawal of the Air Force for instance was something done in a calculated way to prove a point.
They knew this was a probability. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan told them so months ago. So did the CIA apparently. But they didn’t want to hear it. They need to go.Report
how about that timezone issue in the photo?Report
I don’t care about that. If it’s a stock photo, it’s a stock photo. My assessment of the situation isn’t affected by whether there exists a picture of Biden at the time.Report
I think its completely fair to say that not knowing about the secret surrender deals by the Afghan leadership was a massive intelligence failure, and that doomed any chances we had for making an orderly exit of American citizens.
Even had we done so, there was always going to be a mad scramble by Afghan civilians with them clinging to the undercarriage of planes.
The only way to prevent that would have been to have American troops holding desperate women with babies at bay with bayonets and razor wire.Report
I don’t buy that we didn’t know. The Special IG for Afghanistan reported on open bribery by the Taliban of Afghan government officials months ago. Hell – news outlets reported on it months ago. The command structure ignored that because they thought they could.Report
From what I remember, this same command structure blew smoke up Obama’s ass for 8 years and is absolutely not beyond the military equivalent of sick-outs and slow-walks to try to force the President’s hand back onto their chosen course.
I’d not be surprised at all to find that, bluntly, maximum effort was not put into doing this right because they disagreed with leaving. But not enough to resign, perish the thought.Report
I think it was Josh Marshall over at TPM who made that theory that Biden knew that a slow drawdown order would be slow walked and obstructed by the generals so he just pulled the ejection seat to force the issue.
Nothing can be proven, but it sounds plausible.Report
Straightforward from here:
Kamala Harris resigns.
Biden chooses Hillary Clinton as VP.
Biden resigns.
President Clinton.
We go back into Afghanistan.Report