The 2022 Best Picture Race: Summer Projections

About two months back, I wrote about my initial and extremely early outlook into next year’s Oscars race for the grand prize of 2022 Best Picture. Even with how little time has passed since, that feels like a lifetime ago compared to the cinema-related events that have happened since which have already shaken up the race in some smaller and not so small ways. Now here we are finishing up July and getting ready to turn the corner on the last part of the summer, with the prestigious Cannes Film Festival behind us and serious awards contenders announcing their Fall or Winter release dates with first look trailers. New festivals lay before us in the immediate future such as the New York Film Festival or the Venice Film Festival, the latter being where last year’s winner premiered and became the film to beat overnight. Until October passes when plenty of potential contenders finally start to come out to the wider audiences, I wanted a chance to re-shift my personal projections for what I currently consider the top 25 films vying for a Best Picture nomination.

Now you’d think some highly praised films coming out of Cannes would be mentioned after all the great hype they received in the aftermath of the festival. But personally, I came away from the festival seeing no real big breakout contender, unlike two years ago when eventual winner Parasite and eventual nominee Once Upon A Time In Hollywood made their splash. Yes, you have films like the bizarre French horror movie and festival winner Titane, or other buzzed about foreign language movies like A Hero, Compartment No. 6, Drive My Car, and The Worst Person In The World. Yes, you also had English language films that supposedly received great ovations like Blue Bayou, Red Rocket, or Stillwater which saw some critics argue should get Oscar love. And there were animated films like Where Is Anne Frank or Belle that have burst into the race for Best Animated Feature at the next Academy Awards – the latter reportedly getting the longest post credits ovation than any other film at the festival. There are also non-Cannes related movies that have come out since like Zola or Pig that have gotten some buzz as well.

All of these movies would likely be just below the line for me as movies that I personally think could become a contender, and lord knows one or two of them might even become so by awards season; but for various reasons such as accessibility, academy bias against certain type of films, and needing to see more to be convinced their reception goes beyond critical praise, none of these movies are in my mind in the race as of now. Again, that could change; after all, film is subjective and the awards season could surprise me when we start to see actual campaigning and voting results at the end of the year. But I just happen to like at least twenty-five other films’ chances right now a little more.

So here are the twenty-five films I seriously consider as potential contenders for the nomination of 2022 Best Picture as of today. We’ve seen some changes since I last did this in the spring; some films’ chances have seemingly climbed up while others’ have fallen. Some have changed their tiers up or down entirely from before, and some have even dropped out of the race altogether as new solid contenders have come into the conversation. Once again this is all changing as time passes and I’m trying to figure out a race between some movies that haven’t even been released yet, and based at the moment on personal subjective thoughts, critical buzz, historical trends, and some insider reports I’ve read or been given a heads up on – some public and some private. One thing I’m noticing already is that the race seems more fluid below the top ten lines, solidifying the fact this is currently more of a race to see who gets invited to the party with lower tier contenders trying to prove themselves among the most anticipated heavy hitters who themselves have to be careful not to slip down among the also rans.

Also please keep in mind this is obviously not a subjective list on my personal favorite movies of the current Oscars season; this is an attempt at objective predictions for a race between movies that might capture the attention of nine thousand plus members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. It doesn’t mean I like or even highly anticipate a movie myself just because it’s on here; it merely means I objectively see that film as a potential Best Picture nominee, whatever my thoughts on it. Finally, I already mentioned the plot to some of these films in the last piece, so I won’t go into those details for those I already mentioned. Before we get to those contenders though, some notes on the four films that are no longer in the race in my opinion that I had as initial contenders in my last projections:

FILMS THAT ARE OUT OF THE 2022 BEST PICTURE RUNNING…FOR NOW

– Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings (#24 Previously)
I had this placed as a potential contender two months back given it had the opportunity to become an Asian-American version of Black Panther in which a cultural moment for cinema overcomes the preconceived notions of what is an “Oscars film”. But since that time has passed, we’ve also seen another film attempt to have good Asian representation for this type of genre film in Snake Eyes, and there is a very clear sign that Disney and Marvel think that another MCU film released this same year (More on that one later) has a better chance to make a run as that wide appeal movie that ends up sneaking into the final ten. Maybe a massive box office (and when it comes to Marvel we’re talking even beyond massive for a regular film’s box office hopes) for this one will change my thoughts on its placement out of the contenders list, but I think this film is more likely to get box office and critical love before getting into the Best Picture race.

– A Journal For Jordan (#21 Previously)
The Academy loves them some Denzel Washington and with this directorial project of his and the chance for lead Michael B. Jordan to finally have his Oscars moment, I thought this was a dark horse to keep an eye on. But as time has passed, I haven’t heard much buzz about this one past perhaps it maybe still being a vehicle for Jordan in Best Actor. I also looked back at Washington’s record with the Academy behind the camera and they clearly like him more in front of it (his 2016 movie Fences being a major outlier). Granted the Academy is diversifying, and this could be a film that hits home with the new members, but as time has passed of late, I feel like this will end up more of a below the line contender (if that) for other awards than the grand prize itself.

– Being The Ricardos (#17 Previously)
This is one of two films I’m taking out of my projections that I have an uneasy feeling I could come back to regret taking out. Unlike the two previous films mentioned, I had this as more than a dark horse and placed into the tier of films that could gain momentum to get into the bubble for making the top ten. On paper this could become a hit with the Academy; they love Sorkin’s writing, and they love films about the industry. But the talk of how serious a contender this is has become more mixed these last few months. Some awards journalists have continued to believe this could be a strong contender, while others feel like this is more of a below the line player than a top tier nominee that can make major noise. On top of that we’ve heard barely anything about this past some shots taken of the movie being filmed. If I wrote about a sixth tier of competitors, and this one would be in that one for sure.

– Next Goal Wins (#16 Previously)
Like with Being The Ricardos, I have a bit of an uneasy feeling taking this one out and would easily have it in a sixth tier of competitors. The only reason I have become less bullish on its potential to go on a Best Picture nomination run is that the film is openly not considered as important to the studio for campaigning as other films will be for them, and it’s a comedy, which the Academy has a track record of taking less seriously. That said Taika Waititi had a big 2019-2020 Oscars season and who knows? Maybe this will end up becoming a more serious contender again before we know it.

TIER 1: THE MOST SERIOUS OF CONTENDERS TO WIN THE 2022 BEST PICTURE GRAND PRIZE

#1 Soggy Bottom (+3 From Previously)
Climbing from an already high third spot and into my current gun-to-head pick to win Best Picture is the next Paul Thomas Anderson film, Soggy Bottom – a title that might even change before the film comes out this Winter. Again, The Academy loves movies about the industry, and this is said to be shaping up as a fun, quirky look back at the industry during the seventies. For instance, last year the divisive and niche Mank got the most nominations and pulled off a small upset for Cinematography over eventual winner Nomadland. On top of that there could be a narrative that with so many top-notch directors who already had films win Best Picture having films in the race, that this could be the time to award such an honor to a filmmaker like Anderson whose previous film, There Will be Blood, likely came up second in the race back in the 2007-2008 Oscars season.

#2 House Of Gucci (+/-0 From Previously)
Arguably the highest tier film that could become a flop overnight, this comedic drama directed by Ridley Scott has had its production and stills become a meme on social media. But with the kind of ensemble involved and the big names attached, many believe this is a serious contender not just to get nominated but even win it all, according to some journalists who are in the know on the film’s early buzz. Of course, Scott is infamous for having a hit or miss record so if this thing is a miss, it’ll be a pretty big fall given how much hype exists for this to be a very serious and top contender for the Best Picture prize.

#3 Nightmare Alley (+/-0 From Previously)
Still being pegged as a serious contender to get nominated and maybe even win is Guillermo Del Toro’s next project which features an ensemble of some big names. That said, Del Toro doesn’t have a perfect track record getting the Academy’s attention, and it gets harder for a director to see a film of theirs win another Best Picture prize after finally seeing that happen for a previous movie of theirs. Still, we’d be foolish to not take this film’s chances seriously given the guy was able to take a story about a woman falling in love with a sea creature and make it a Best Picture winner that got him his Best Director statue.

#4 Don’t Look Up (+4 From Previously)
Making the major jump from favorite to get nominated to serious contender that could go all the way is Adam McKay’s next satire which is being said to be Netflix’s top priority in campaigning for awards. And given how aggressive a campaigner they are known to be, that’s not something to ignore. McKay is an acquired taste, but the Academy loves his stuff, and this has a big enough ensemble with some biting social commentary that it could catch on given that in a day and age where even getting vaccinated has become political, they could be attracted to a movie about ignoring scientific experts. The movie reportedly got a standing ovation at a private screening and previous worries about a script seem to have vanished overnight.

#5 Canterbury Glass (+/-0 From Previously)
Arguably the most mysterious of all the films buzzed about as a top tier contender, this movie might not even have the same title by its release – and on top of that there’s still some debate as to whether it’ll even come out this year! This is David O. Russel’s next project and he’s gotten the Academy’s attention before. On top of that this has that ensemble that voters are attracted to and is a period piece, which the Academy loves. That said, of late a decade-old sexual misconduct allegation has resurfaced regarding Russel and it could haunt the film’s campaign prospects no matter how well received it if it becomes a major story in the cycle by then. Just ask James Franco and The Disaster Artist.

TIER 2: SERIOUS FAVORITES TO GET NOMINATED, BUT PERHAPS NOT TO WIN 2022 BEST PICTURE

#6 West Side Story (+/-0 From Previously)
It’s a remake of a story that already won Best Picture, it’s the top priority for a studio’s awards prospects, and oh yeah, it’s got Stephen Spielberg’s name behind it. I’d bet hard on this film to get nominated barring a really rough showing among critics, and even then the Academy might still reward it a nomination. That said, no remake of a Best Picture winner has won before so I’m much less bullish that it’s among the top contenders to win the whole thing after getting that nomination even if this is arguably the number one most likely film to get nominated.

#7 The Tragedy Of Macbeth (-6 From Previously)
Falling from the top spot as my pick to win it all to a second tier likely nominee is this Shakespearian adaptation. A24 has partnered with Apple TV who are hell bent on making this their major awards player by having it premier at the New York Film Festival, and for good reason. Black and white, Frances McDormand and Denzel Washington, period piece, and oh yeah, it is directed by one of the Coen brothers. There’s also major awards buzz that Corey Hawkins could breakthrough as a major Supporting Actor contender. So why has it fallen six spots since I last did this? I’ve heard from some noteworthy awards journalists that the movie might come off too experimental for the Academy and that while its still a movie to watch to get a nomination, an outright win might be bridge too far for this one. In other words, the frontrunner in my mind has changed and it might not be the last time that happens this season.

#8 The French Dispatch (-1 From Previously)
Wes Anderson is an acquired taste, but as time has passed his movies seem to have become more and more popular with the Academy. So, it’s not crazy to see why this film, well received at Cannes, remains a likely nominee for Best Picture. That said, word coming out of Cannes is that while the film is generally good, its anthology style of storytelling could make it less accessible to some voters and that it isn’t necessarily getting the same buzz that his arguably two most well received movies Moonrise Kingdom and Grand Budapest Hotel did. I think this could easily become a below the line contender if the lower tier contenders punch hard, but it has enough behind it that I still would predict it as a nominee…for now.

#9 The Power Of The Dog (+/-0 From Previously)
Next to Canterbury Glass, this is the contender we haven’t seen much of and as much as I want to disregard it I hear from top awards journalist after top awards journalist that Netflix has big plans for this one as they have been known to campaign hard for films even past their top concern (which this year seems to be the already mentioned Don’t Look Up). I’m going to take their word for it for now, but I won’t be that stunned if this one isn’t still in my top ten the next time I do this. But again, this title keeps coming up among people in the know as a likely nominee.

#10 Dune (+/-0 From Previously)
My current pick as the wildcard mass appeal film that might not have made it in past years when the 5% rule was in effect, but will sneak in as the tenth film this year. Warner Brothers believes this is their Lord Of The Rings, and reportedly have it penciled in as their number one awards priority. The movie seems to have amazing visuals, has a respected director at the helm that the Academy has shown love to in the past, and has the potential to become a box office hit. And yet the property it is based on can be a hard sell to movie go-ers, end up coming off as inaccessible to some voters, and for all we know could get a lukewarm reception from critics while flopping at the box office. But regardless, the studio remains defiant in their belief this is their contender and are willing to take the risk when this comes out in late October. I would say this movie is the definition right now of one that is in that line between likely nominee and in the bubble. It all depends on how it gets received this fall as to whether it’ll climb the ranks as a safer pick to get a nomination or fall down to the longshot tiers.

TIER 3: ON THE BUBBLE OF PERHAPS GETTING A 2022 BEST PICTURE NOMINATION

#11 Eternals (+1 From Previously)
Disney and Marvel has made it very clear that they have high aspirations for this new MCU film which reportedly will be unlike any other film from the number one box office franchise in cinema today. The reigning Best Director winner of the reigning Best Picture Winner Chloe Zhao shot this, it’s got a big ensemble with some big names, and it is a film the studio has been aggressive in pushing into awards season in the past (last November then this past February, and now in time for Thanksgiving). Keep an eye on this one; it could easily steal Dune‘s thunder.

#12 Mass (+1 From Previously)
The best received film from Sundance earlier this year, this heart wrenching drama has been hyped as a Best Picture contender and there are even some who think it could not just get nominated but even win. I’ve been a tad skeptical given a studio infamous for botching its awards campaigns has a hold of it, but I’m starting to slowly get convinced that this could be in the bubble of a nomination with enough momentum and a few top tier contenders failing to meet expectations.

#13 Coda (+7 From Previously)
Another Sundance favorite, this has climbed up seven spots from a potential bubble film to being one of those movies that could get into the conversation. All the talk that this could come off too Hallmark to some has vanished almost overnight and Apple TV has this as their second next priority to campaign for awards. The Academy tends to fall in love with a crowd pleaser or two and this could be one of those crowd pleasers that captures their hearts and finds itself in the thick of things. I made the mistake of ignoring the momentum some saw for The Father last year, and I won’t make that same mistake with this film. Coda is on the bubble.

#14 Last Night In Soho (+4 From Previously)
Like Coda, this has climbed the ranks from the potential contender tier and into being in the bubble of being favored for a nomination. Edgar Wright has seen plenty of critical praise but he continues to wait for that big Oscar recognition moment and this could be the movie that does it for him. As films in the third tier have slipped, this one has climbed up. Now all it needs is to get a good reception that carries it into awards season when it comes out this fall in the midst of other potential contenders.

#15 In The Heights (-4 From Previously)
You all know my personal feelings about this special movie if you’ve read my stuff. It has major critical love, major positive word of mouth among audiences, a big ensemble, and it has a musical that gives tribute to past films and has a diverse cast. It has plenty of the makings of a Best Picture nominee. Unfortunately, it also bombed at the box office and a big colorism debate broke out among some social circles regarding the movie that could turn off some Academy voters from bringing that “scandal” to the awards season. And yet the movie won the mid-season Best Picture award for the popularly received Hollywood Critics Association and word is Warner Brothers is still willing to campaign for it if enough momentum is there by awards season (frankly, if Dune flops I could see them turning this into their big contender). But then again, we’ve seen this story before when Da 5 Bloods looked like a summer contender that fizzled last year, then picked up momentum, showed up in many “Best of the Year” lists (mine included), got major critical associations’ love, and then came up short of making Oscars noise. And yet we also saw a film like The Hurt Locker which also bombed at the box office early and then suddenly picked up momentum at the right time and won the whole thing. This film’s chances to get Oscar love will come from how films ranked higher and lower from it will get received. Right now, as much as this movie means to me, I objectively think it’s a lock to show up in many favorites of the year list, get some nominations among critic circles, but it’s barely in the bubble to get nominated for Best Picture.

TIER 4: HAVE POTENTIAL TO BUILD ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO GET INTO THE 2022 BEST PICTURE BUBBLE

#16 Flee (+9 From Previously)
The biggest jump from the last projections I did is from this animated documentary that has a longshot at becoming the first ever film to get nominated for Best Animated Feature, Documentary, International Feature, and Picture. I’m moving it from a dark horse to keep an eye on to a spot away from being in the bubble of being a serious contender to get nominated. I personally don’t like lumping documentaries with feature narratives but the rules state that a documentary can compete for all the Best Film prizes at the Academy Awards and word is Neon is fully aware of the history they can make with the right awards campaign for this one. I was more skeptical of the possibility two months back, but I’m becoming more of a believer of late even though I do think it remains a longshot for the Best Film nod.

#17 Dear Evan Hansen (New Entry From Previously)
The first of four new films that didn’t make it onto the last projections I did, this is an adaptation of a Tony award winning musical of a high schooler who finds himself being mistaken as the best friend of a student that committed suicide. I have never watched the original production myself and even for a musicals lover like me this seems ultra-Broadway in its music looking at the trailer. From what I gather the story received some backlash from theatre lovers and critics, but enough of the right people liked it that it became a major awards winner and crowd pleaser in the Broadway community. It could be that movie like Bohemian Rhapsody that the Academy latches onto even if some outside looking in aren’t buying into the fluff. I think there’s enough buzz already built for this that it’s got the potential to join that bubble of getting into the conversation for a nomination.

#18 Tick Tick…Boom! (New Entry From Previously)
Yet another musical that has entered the race is Lin Manuel Miranda’s directorial debut regarding a writer grappling with the idea he’s running out of time to accomplish the work that will bring him a legacy among his peers. Netflix is reportedly getting more and more high on aggressively campaigning this and very early insider buzz is that it could become a very serious contender overnight. I can’t ignore talk like that any longer and given all that Miranda has coming out this year, you’d think something of his is bound to break through into Academy Awards attention.

#19 Annette (-5 From Previously)
Continuing on the musicals route, I had this ranked pretty high and in the bubble tier of potential nominees two months back. It’s fallen down a whole five spots and into another tier because the film got a good but not great reception from the Cannes crowd. Granted Adam Driver has gotten tons of buzz from this, and the director did win Best Director at the festival, but when it comes to the movie getting a Best Picture nomination it might just be a little too weird for the Academy. And yet the movie might be just weird enough at the same time and Driver’s performance could be great enough that as more eyes get on it in the following month it could find itself climbing back up again after taking a hit at the festival.

#20 Encanto (-5 From Previously)
This wasn’t featured at Cannes, but in a way the festival hurt its chances with me in becoming that animated feature that sneaks into the tenth slot. Cannes revealed to us just how packed the Best Animated Feature race is going to be this year and Encanto will need to really stand out to be a favorite for that much less be the animated film that gets that Best Picture nod. It’s fallen a whole tier like Annette, but like that film all it takes is a great reception and buzz with the right crowd to get it to start climbing back up.

TIER 5: DARK HORSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT COULD GO ON A 2022 BEST PICTURE RUN

#21 The Green Knight (+1 From Previously)
A film that has been getting great predictions market buzz as a contender for Best Picture, this A24 Summer epic remains a potential dark horse that could make a run and get itself into the race. The movie is on the verge of release and word of mouth so far has been good.

#22 The Last Duel (-3 From Previously)
Falling from the potential contender tier and into the dark horse territory is the other Ridley Scott film that will likely get campaigning but won’t be as much of a focus as House Of Gucci will be. Its chances are slipping as time passes, but a killer reception and Ridley’s other film flopping could get it back on the up-rise again.

#23 King Richard (New Entry From Previously)
A new entry from the last projections I did, this film about the Williams sisters’ father was previously getting buzz as a vehicle for Will Smith to get another Best Actor nomination and maybe even go for the win this time. However, in the last few months word is Warner Brothers might have hopes it could become an actual contender for the top prize and some awards journalists of note have written that this could be a dark horse no one is paying attention to. Personally, I’m skeptical past the Smith nomination talks, but when there’s enough smoke you better make sure to see if there’s a fire and there could be something to this.

#24 The Eyes Of Tammy Faye (New Entry From Previously)
Like with King Richard I thought this new entry was more likely an acting vehicle for awards, but buzz is that while it is not a top concern for Fox Searchlight, they are still giving it attention and will feature it in upcoming major festivals. The movie looks like it could be over the top cheesy, but the Academy can be suckers for biting social commentary on a part of the culture war they oppose and I could see this gaining surprising momentum and becoming a low tier nominee among the final ten. I’d still bet against such, but again there’s enough buzz among enough people whose judgment I respect that I’d definitely keep an eye on this as a dark horse.

#25 Cruella (-2 From Previously)
Barely holding on to the dark horse tier is Cruella which is a longshot for major nominations that will likely get (rightfully so) massive campaigning on it below the line accomplishments like costumes, makeup, and maybe even score, if not a longshot acting nomination for one of the two Emmas. That sort of campaigning could lead to some Academy members, especially given that beginning this year there will be ten nominees, to decide to vote for the film among their nominated Best Picture contenders. Still an unlikely dark horse like before, but if enough love builds up you never know if this surges into that tenth slot.

So, there you have it, the race for that Best Picture Oscar statue as I see it after two months of new data and awards buzz talk entering my brain. We remain in a weird place where many of these films still haven’t come out to the wider audiences, and the top ten most likely nominees seem to be just one or two flops away from seeing a dramatic shift at the top. If the race could change this much in just two months, imagine what its gonna’ look like after October when I sit down and do this again.