House Reapportionment Number Are Released

From our friends over at Elections Daily, the House Reapportionment numbers are out and contain more than a few surprises:

Nick Morris breaks it down like this:

Who Benefits From Reapportionment?
The House: Uncertain, But Probably Democrats
Following what we’ve seen from trends, voters who migrate between states tend to vote Democratic. We consistently see this in places like Austin, Texas, which swings consistently to the left as it explodes in population. The same is true around Phoenix, Atlanta and countless other metropolitan areas. Thus, in the House, reapportionment has a lot of potential for Democrats. Many districts which Democrats have gained over the last decade fill this criterion, and as a result many are overpopulated. As new districts arise to account for this growth, I would say that Democrats are the most likely winners.

But that is just based on reapportionment. This is not to be confused with redistricting, where Republicans may use their advantage in state legislatures to draw favorable districts for themselves. But that’s a topic for another time.

The Electoral College: Republicans, For Now
Despite the shifts, the reapportioned counts seem to give Republicans a slightly improved Electoral College advantage. If the 2020 election were held under the new Electoral College counts, Joe Biden would have won 303 votes, three fewer than his real total, and Donald Trump would have won three more. This advantage may not be permanent, however. Take Texas for example. Texas remains a red state, but the same population growth that caused it to gain three votes also caused Democrats to surge there. This has already Arizona and Georgia to flip, and the same may happen in states like Florida and North Carolina.

These states are changing rapidly, and if Democrats are lucky enough to sweep them, the extra Electoral Votes would help. But for now, Democrats will have to work a bit harder to overcome Republicans’ built-in advantage in the Electoral College.

What’s Next?
Congressional redistricting is in the pipeline in the vast majority of states, and the release of this data is a major step in the process. Now that states know for sure how many seats they will have, planning becomes a lot easier. But it’s not over yet, and we’re still months away from getting block-level redistricting data. The Census Bureau have set a provisional deadline of Aug. 16 for the release of this data.

Until then, legislatures and commissions would be smart to ramp up public hearings and debates. Many states have been doing this, and others have plans to do so in the near future. While they do that, the coverage continues here at Elections Daily, where I’ll be doing my best to keep the public up to date.

Official Number of House Seats, by State
Alabama: 7
Alaska: 1
Arizona: 9
Arkansas: 4
California: 52 (-1)
Colorado: 8 (+1)
Connecticut: 5
Delaware: 1
Florida: 28 (+1)
Georgia: 14
Hawaii: 2
Idaho: 2
Illinois: 17 (-1)
Indiana: 9
Iowa: 4
Kansas: 4
Kentucky: 6
Louisiana: 6
Maine: 2
Maryland: 8
Massachusetts: 9
Michigan: 13 (-1)
Minnesota: 8
Mississippi: 4
Missouri: 8
Montana: 2 (+1)
Nebraska: 3
Nevada: 4
New Hampshire: 2
New Jersey: 12
New Mexico: 3
New York: 26 (-1)
North Carolina: 14 (+1)
North Dakota: 1
Ohio: 15 (-1)
Oklahoma: 5
Oregon: 6 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 17 (-1)
Rhode Island: 2
South Carolina: 7
South Dakota: 1
Tennessee: 9
Texas: 38 (+2)
Utah: 4
Vermont: 1
Virginia: 11
Washington: 10
West Virginia: 2 (-1)
Wisconsin: 8
Wyoming: 1