The First Day of School, Believing the Science, and Anecdotal Evidence
This morning resumed what, for most of my adult life, has been ritual from August to June of each year. Children have to get to school. Not semi-sit-up and log on to their laptops, but actually get up and go to the school building. This is the first time in over a year they have done so, due to the closing of schools because of the Covid-19 pandemic. So long, in fact, one of my children will be starting in a building she’s never been in as a student since she — like several hundred others at her school — graded up to the high school in the interim period. Others graduated virtually, like my oldest did from college some months after her school was shuttered and arrangements were made for seniors to complete the work they were denied in class virtually.
The thing about the public school district my children are in is the hub of this educational wheel is located such all of the social aspects of the last year were on full display. The high school and one of the feeder elementary schools (which my children attended) are on adjacent property. Right across the street is a shopping center, the nearly omnipresent layout of an anchor store with attached strip mall that seemingly plagues every growing area these days, with outparcels that constitute a Mickey D’s, chain drug store, and two more strip malls. These are not to be confused with the other shopping center, consisting of an anchor grocery store and strip mall, which share a parking lot with another strip mall catty-corner and a half mile away and bordering the other side of the school property. This, I’m told, is progress. Huzzah for that.
Anywho…
That anchor grocery store is a daily visit, the one that I use the most, and as someone who cooks and uses food as self-therapy is very much one of my happy places. Most of the workers there know me, even masked up, since I’m there so often. Now that the first day of school has belatedly arrived, I’ll no doubt be there even more, since the convenience of passing by so many good eats is irresistible. Having lived in this community for a while it is more common to stop and talk to someone I know than it is not to . So, for the better part of the last year our community has had the interesting social experiment of one side of the road being business as mostly — if masked — usual for shopping, Starbucks, McDonald’s, restaurants, even the yoga and workout places, while the other side of the road has been a cordoned off area forbidden to teachers, students, and parents alike. The vast majority of people that frequent the one is the same for the other, you see, so the conversations at the open places of commerce frequently focus on the closure of the places of education nearby and the disruption to all our lives.
We should, of course, believe and follow the science, and anecdotal evidence is not science. In a county that, as of the moment I write this, has had 25K cases of Covid resulting in 284 deaths to join the 11k state-wide and the 545K nationwide death totals, the numbers are insufficient to tell the human toll of this virus. Each of those deaths and sicknesses has a blast radius that varies case-by-case and circumstance-by-circumstance on the loved ones involved. The experts of science, whom we are to believe and follow, dictated mask usage and social distancing. Anecdotal evidence, not scientific so not to be believed and followed you understand, shows this community was rather compliant with those edicts and pleas. Mask usage remains very high, the dedicated employees of the grocery store wipe down your cart or basket while spacing out folks coming and going, and folks for the most part seem to make a good effort in distancing and respecting each other. Lines are not as crowded as they once were, a year’s worth of habit showing ingrained change. That change hopefully will last past the pandemic when the queues at self-checkout get a bit rowdy on a paycheck Friday or the coupon warriors sally forth with their binders and indefatigable knowledge of how much everything is going to cost them.
Even during the “total lockdown” last spring when no one was supposed to leave their home except for “necessary” things to the point that some were given papers to prove they were essential workers, the grocery store remained opened. As it should have; folks have to eat and be supplied with the other necessities of life. Hours of operation changed, procedures changed, but there was never a time you couldn’t go into the same grocery store you always did to get whatever you needed as long as you followed the science and guidance of the day to do so. Folks might not be able to quote infection rates, or the epidemiology of viral diseases, or what the latest press conference told us common folks, but for the most part they inherently knew to take the issue seriously, to be considerate of others, to follow the science as best they could. That’s progress, folks at least trying to make informed decisions.
Those real-life realities are where the frustration with the school closures come from. Schools are not grocery stores, of course, and housing the 2K students of a high school eight hours a day plus transportation to and from is a different beast than running commerce at a grocery store, or Starbucks, or yoga studio across the road. But folks don’t just follow science and experts, and when their anecdotal evidence raises questions of how the same people can do the one and not the other, frustration builds. How the same folks whom now are educators and they see in the grocery store, or McDonald’s, or Starbucks everyday are saying there is no way they can safely be across the road in any way, shape, or form. A year’s worth of frustration builds into this, unfair as it may be, but it’s real, and no amount of dismissal as being “only anecdotal evidence” or rebutting with the science of the moment — which tends to change, frequently — lessens those feelings for many.
Those feelings have their own blast radius as well, and parents and students who have a lost year of education are adapting and overcoming. It would be wise for those who use “the science” not only as a tool but a sword and shield to realize that and deal with things as they are, instead of just waving numbers and stats at real folks with real concerns about their real lives. The administrators and powers that be would be wise to understand they are dealing with students who are very online, and very informed. My own student informed me of the policy of “no zeros” where grades were going to be moved to no-lower-than a 50 to compensate for work not turned in on virtual learning months before it leaked publicly. Students know better than parents that education is not just about learning, but is also a business whose factories are school buildings and products are they themselves to keep the profits of funding flowing. They may not call it that, but the feeling of being a replaceable cog in a very big wheel became very apparent to students over the last year of virtual-only learning. Folks, including students, will believe and follow the science, but trust is earned and the folks who want compliance better make sure they are on the level with a citizenry that can Google. That would be progress, having a bit of humanity and humility when insisting on absolute devotion to numbers and stats that have no agency but can affect human lives plenty. Among the many losses to Covid over the past year, the loss in faith in their educational and political leaders by a generation of students might be of longer consequence than many folks know right now.
So, on this first day of school, things were a bit different. There was a mask, and a backup mask, that of course had to be color-coordinated with the kid’s outfit the way some do shoes, or shirts, or bags. There is a queue in front of the school, since there is a check-in process of temperature checks and questions to answer in addition to the normal first day chaos. This district is still only operating for a “hybrid” two days a week, but it’s still better than no in-person at all we’ve been doing for over a year. Now comes the hard work for students, teachers, and parents alike of adjusting once again to yet another “new normal.” At least, until we change again. It will be interesting to watch the reactions to the schools finally being re-opened in this community. As I told my own children today, try not to worry about it too much, after the first day, and the first night of online reaction, it will probably change some again before settling into whatever this new normal will be between now and summer.
I’m sure the discussions over the produce, or in the checkout line, or at Starbucks, will be really interesting about this first day of school. Just like they have been for the last year. At least now we are talking about the events across the road at the school in the present tense, not in the future or only as a thing of the past. That, at least, is progress.
This is not a pressing issue for me, since my kids are past school age, but I recall the number of bugs they brought home when they were in school, and I’m glad not to repeat that with a deadly one.Report
Back at the very beginning of the lockdown, back when the consensus started shifting to the point where people agreed that there were mixed messages as to whether masks worked or not, there were a handful of policies issued.
The grocery store that had two entrances? One at the produce end of the store, one at the deli end of the store? Well, the deli entrance was locked off. Only one entrance!
I don’t know why they had that policy. Contact tracing, maybe? I don’t know. Anyway, as we learned more and more and learned more and more about ventilation, those doors remained locked. When you go to my supermarket, there is only one door that you can enter in and out of.
You know the plastic wrap that they use on pallets to keep all of the boxes from falling off during transit? Well, they wrapped up the little picnic tables outside that the grocery store workers used to take breaks. No congregating! Was the rule, I guess. So they blocked off all of the picnic tables instead of telling the workers to distance. So the workers all sat on the bike rack when they went out smoking. The bike rack was smaller than the picnic tables were.
The local Sonic, when they heard about the lockdown, flipped over half of their picnic tables on top of the other half and locked them up with bike chains. You couldn’t eat outside at the Sonic anymore. Next door were sit-down restaurants. You could go into the sit-down restaurants and get a booth, socially distanced, from other people who were eating. You couldn’t eat outside at the Sonic. You could eat inside, socially distanced.
What the hell. How are these still policies. What the hell.Report
I suspect much of that is driven by lawyers seeking to limit liability. Which is as yet untested in our courts.Report
Tragedy of the legal commons.Report
Frankly if the response is “why can’t they . . . “ then no, folks don’t actually understand the virus, or ventilation or any of the other things we’ve learned in the last year. Especially about how educators are in statistically more susceptible groups and how kids can be vectors of transmission.
As I’ve noted elsewhere, it’s at a minimum an unfair demand of science. Even Dr. Fauci – who IMHO is very good at science communication – tries to be honest about uncertainty and change (which is the only constant in science). But when he does he’s wishy washy and no one should listen to him. When he’s definitive and then changes his narrative because information changes he’s called an unknowing quack.
And science isn’t the reason those folks have unaddressed concerns – it’s a political process that, under the President and Party where this reared its demented head, was used to in-group and out-group not to call for national unified action. If the president at the time had actually given a damn about liberals or people of color and instructed his government accordingly, not only would very few of the 534,000 dead Americans be dead, but he would have coasted to an easy and possibly popular reelection. That’s not the fault of the scientists.
Who says this is better? Because we can go back to the factory approach of testing? Because we can keep forcing our economy to hum along being driven by ever growing desires to consume? Because some of us couldn’t stand having our kids at home while others of us really want them to be?
If the last year has taught us anything – and I’m betting we will refuse to retain what we’ve learned – it’s that we are and adaptable species and society. That adaptation came at the price of 534,000 lives and a nearly cratered economy. Going back to the “Old” normal is a hugely tragic mistake.Report
If you wish to write a point-by-point rebuttal you are welcome to write it up and submit itReport
No thanks. Aside the from what I consider wonky comment formats that make tracking in a thread problematic, I detest having to track across threads. When all Jaybrid does is post a link to “something we already discussed” and no more I tend to want to punch the computer.
I like rebuttals packaged neatly with the thing they seek to rebut.
And FWIW I seem to have forgotten to close a blockquote in there somewhere. Mea culpa if that makes it hard to read.Report
I thought that I was doing a good thing by not reposting hundreds and hundreds of words and rehashing arguments that were already hashed out!
I’ll readjust in the future.Report
When you post words besides links you may well be doing something of value – though your writing style and my reading style still don’t agree.
But many is the time you have simply posted something to the effect of “we talked about that HERE” with a hotlink imbedded in the HERE and nothing further. Thats what I dislike. YMMV.Report
I’ll do my best to take that into consideration.
As much as I repeat myself, I fail to repeat myself a *LOT* more.
I’ll try to keep in mind that others are not privy to my internal monologue.Report
I fixed the blockquote for youReport
Thanks. You’d think I could catch that myself these days . . .Report
no worriesReport
how about some of us love having our kids at home, but mom & dad both have to work, and can’t pay much attention to a 9 year old, who would much rather be at school playing with his friends, than stuck at home on a laptop. Also, he does a whole lot better with his school work when he’s in class, than at home online.
This whole constant thrum of black & white choices and motivations is so fecking tired.Report
Trying to ram everything back to the way it was is a black and white choice. And yes, its fecking tiring that its what everyone wants. and yet here we are.
And for the record – I have three at home until tomorrow. 11,10 and 6. They have all learned a lot, they have all been openly welcomed into my Google hang outs for work, and they have done and amazing job of growing and learning the last year. Perhaps we are the real statistical anomaly around here, but I can’t imagine there have been no good moments for you. Moments you would not otherwise have. Moments that point to there being different and perhaps better ways.Report
Have there been good moments? Sure. But it’s been a constant struggle. He started back at hybrid school a few weeks ago and his mood has been leaps and bounds better ever since. He is very much a social animal and he needs to interact with other kids. Maybe if we had more than one kid, it’d be different, but one is all we can have, so one is all we got.
PS By no means do I think we should go back to ‘normal’, but neither do I think it should be all home school, all the time.Report
on the other side of the desk: as a professor, I HATED teaching from home. HATED it. I didn’t have the right tools to do it right, my living room (which became my office) felt cramped and miserable, I couldn’t stand and pace, I only had a “virtual” whiteboard.
And in spring 2020, when we were told to be all asynchronous-virtual, I had almost NO feedback from students other than “hey can you reopen the quiz I forgot to take it” or “I don’t have enough bandwidth to watch your lectures can you make them a lot shorter” and I just wanted to give up.
I suppose some things need to change? but forcing me to wfh forever with no real chance to just casually talk with students (I did over-Zoom office hours; I had two people show up in the past two semesters) I would not last much longer.
I could also feel my skills and cognition atrophying. I am glad to be back in the classroom even if I am also carrying the added work of recording and posting the lectures as Zoom lectures (the students this fall were sternly warned to be sure they had access to enough bandwidth). Even at that there are things that are very suboptimal with how we are doing it now and I am praying this fall we can open up more, especially since the faculty should be fully vaccinated (and I presume many if not all the students will be)
I thought I was a loner but holy Hell this pandemic taught me how I depend on the many small daily interactions not to totally lose my stuff. I came VERY close to the edge several times between March and August 2020.Report
I feel for you. I am also more the mildly upset at employers who put people in these positions without support – especially universities who have people to help with both the technical and the emotional pieces.
I’m not advocating for 100% WFH or school from home.
I am advocating for taking the long hard look at our systems that we got to see with COVID and doing things differently – which in many cases will be better.Report
” Especially about how educators are in statistically more susceptible groups and how kids can be vectors of transmission.”
Except all the data points towards minimal school transmission with basic protocols in place.Report
We’re in this weird spot where the children are effectively immune and could benefit from school a lot… but everyone around the children isn’t immune and their risk would go up a lot if we have schools.
Children generate emotions pretty easily, thus how every local tax increase is “for the children”. The teacher’s union is large, politically powerful and needs to virtue signal that it’s “doing something to support” it’s members.
I’m not sure if “science” tells us anything useful about this situation because one community’s political priorities (and power of the groups involved, and emotions) will be different from anothers as will their ability to deal with the virus.
Thankfully the political powers that be have mostly let local communities decide what to do.Report
Are we in that spot? Do we have evidence of lots of cases emanating from asymptomatic spread among children in schools who then expose adults outside of school? Because I haven’t seen squat to support that theory.
And local “political priorities” dictating policy sure as heck ain’t “following the science.”Report
While fewer children have been sick with COVID-19 compared to adults, children can be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, can get sick from COVID-19, and can spread the virus that causes COVID-19 to others. Children, like adults, who have COVID-19 but have no symptoms (“asymptomatic”) can still spread the virus to others.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/children/symptoms.html
And that’s ignoring that a lot of the pushback has happened from adults inside the school.
That’s where the science is at, if you want to argue they’re less prone to spread it than adults in the same situation I’d agree, but we’d ban adults from doing this. I.e. 25 random people in one close group for an hour followed by them all changing groups and repeating 6 times a day.
This isn’t a science decision, this is a political priorities and risk decision.Report
What “can” happen isn’t “science”. Not in a meaningful way for this discussion.
Might I remind you that I’m both a teacher and a parent. So I’m seeing this from both inside the building and outside.
Yes, there is the potential that a sick kid is in the school building, makes other kids sick, and those kids go home and make their parents sick. Absolutely. No one has EVER doubted that.
But how LIKELY is that? And how likely is that when basic mitigation strategies are put in place (e.g., mask wearing, social distancing, increased ventilation and airflow… strategies that most schools can put in place if they have students in-person on at least a limited basis)? The data shows it is very, very, VERY unlikely. All of the recent research shows that schools being open has had no impact on community-wide spread.
So, again, if we want to “follow the science” it would show that schools can safely re-open with smart mitigation plans in place. And we know this because many, many, many, many schools have. Hell, even schools with not-so-smart mitigation plans in place have been open without causing mass outbreaks. Which DOES NOT MEAN we shouldn’t aim to be smart. But it does mean that the risk children pose as “vectors of transmission” is very small and even smaller with appropriate mitigation strategies.
Meanwhile, the risk TO children of extended school closures or limited in-person time is immense.
If you want links, I’ll get you links. They’re plentiful.
“I.e. 25 random people in one close group for an hour followed by them all changing groups and repeating 6 times a day.”
The scenario you’re describing seems to be high schools opening as usual. Who here is advocating for that? For starters, high school-aged students would be above the age that most scientists and doctors would use to divide “kids” from “adults” as far as this disease is concerned (age 12 is about when children begin “behaving” like adults in this regard). So, yes, additional steps would need to be taken with that cohort and perhaps a different school model is needed until things improve. If our disagreement here is definitional, so be it.
I will say it once more, as clearly as I can: The data and science right now shows that children under 12 can attend school with minimal risk of spread with basic mitigation strategies in place (e.g., mask wearing, distancing of 3-6 feet, and increased ventilation/airflow as afforded by opening windows).Report
Misthreaded… argh!
“This isn’t a science decision, this is a political priorities and risk decision.”
To this point, we are in 100% agreement.
The problem is… teachers have a powerful advocacy group (e.g., the union), adults have multiple powerful advocacy groups (e.g., chambers of commerce, political parties), while children and students have squat. Parents in many areas are attempting to organize but they’re basically starting from scratch and they do not have a guaranteed seat at the table.
So, yes, these decision are political and they are based on risk assessment but that doesn’t mean they are doing *good* risk analysis or making the right political decisions. They’re making expedient ones.
The CDC has recommended opening schools. The APA — since last summer — has been advocating opening schools. The best thing for children is schools opening. And recent data shows minimal impact on the broader community. And yet… schools remain closed. Who is benefitting from schools remaining closed? And to what end? Who is being harmed from schools remaining closed? And to what end? It seems pretty evident that the answers to the first set of questions is “A small set of educators with real health risks who may be having their lives saved” and the answers to the latter set is “Millions of school children are being given a substandard education, families are being stretched to the maximum, many school employees are without work (i.e., bus drivers, janitorial staff).” But one of those groups has a powerful lobbying arm and the others do not. So, here we are.Report
I think that’s a good summation.
This situation showcases some of the issues with having powerful unions, i.e. that power comes at the expense of other groups. Be interesting to map out open vs closed schools, I’d bet its a map of union vs parent power.
Local schools are open but mixed. Some kids are all virtual, some all in person, their choice (and the in person kids can stay home and be virtual but not vise versa).Report
Our district has opened less than most surrounding ones. We have a district-based union. Coincidence? Probably not.
Privates have been “more open.” That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re doing it better. But they have been more open. And there are but a handful of private schools with unions.
I will just again say that I could drop my kid off at Chuck E. Cheese and he could spend the entire day there, including taking his mask off to eat, but he can only spend 4 hours at school every-other-day and he cannot have lunch because it is too dangerous for him to take his mask off to eat.
I don’t see any way of describing that other than as a complete FUBAR of priorities.Report
ALL Mississippi public schools reopened nearly fully last fall. ALL. The high schools have suffered a two weeks on two weeks off cadence since then. Which has been really disruptive but still continues. Our state opened vaccines to teachers two weeks ago and everyone today, so there is hope.Report
I would not support that re-opening plan or consider it one that was anything approaching “smart” or “safe”.
Even that said… is there evidence that the school re-opening plan has contributed to community spread?
Here in NJ, the rules were clear: 2 or more cases within the same school of unknown origin automatically trigger a 2 week closure. The thinking was that multiple cases you can’t trace means the school COULD be the source and to mitigate further potential spread, shut it down. While I haven’t seen it officially announced, it seems like that has been relaxed a bit given that that scenario has arisen a few times recently without triggering a closure (though pretty much every school in our district endured at least one closure, some multiple; my sons were fortunate to have just one). I offer this to say that it is possible that the closures weren’t because of documented school-spread but because of the potential of it. But I really have no idea how Mississippi is doing it.Report
The first time our town’s high school shut down for two weeks they were over 50 cases in three days. The town next to use shut down for two weeks at over 20 in a single day. And two weeks later they were back, and two weeks after that they were shut down again. This has been going on all year. Mississippi refuses to have state mandates on this because while the governor is happy to throw the doors open, he doesn’t actually control the districts. So they all set their own lower limits. Folks down here take it as a point of pride – owning the libs if you will – that we reopened sooner and stayed open in the face of adversity.Report
The fact that your state is being stupid about it doesn’t mean other states can’t be smart about it.Report
Very true, but too many people assume that how its being done local to them is how its being done everywhere.Report
Did they do contract tracing to determine the source of those cases?Report
Not that has been publicly reported. The state has not hired massive numbers of contact tracers.Report
On the flips side, our district has had 50% capacity (and, really, less than that due to families opting into full-remote) for 4 hours a day. No lunch. Snack outdoors or very briefly indoors. Otherwise, full masking and consistent distancing of 6 feet. Students go every other day, so 8-12 hours/week.
In a district of approximately 6K students, I believe we’ve had fewer than 100 total cases among students, faculty, staff, and admin since September. And based on contact tracing (which I’ll concede is not 100% reliable) there have been no documented cases of in-school spread.
Now, my district is currently under heavy fire for being TOO conservative. But compare that to Mississippi. Are we doing it right? We probably ARE being too conservative given the risks and rewards. Is Mississippi doing it right? Almost certainly not given what you describe. But there is a whole lot of real estate between what you describe and what I describe.Report