Who Mourns for the GOP?
Clasp with thy panting soul the pendulous Earth;
As from a centre, dart thy spirit’s light Beyond all worlds, until its spacious might Satiate the void circumference: then shrink Even to a point within our day and night; And keep thy heart light lest it make thee sink When hope has kindled hope, and lur’d thee to the brink. — Adonais by Percy Shelley
There is an old saying that Democrats fall in love, and Republicans fall in line. The old saying believes that Democrats have feelings for their party and aren’t going to easily leave the party. With Republicans, there are no “feelings” per se with the party. You either fall in line or you leave. There is no desire to stay with the party and no desire to reform the party. After all, you reform people and things that you love.
Some observers think that the two major parties have switched their positions, with the GOP falling in love with former President Donald Trump and that is true to some extent. But given how dissidents that dare criticize Trump are censured by local parties, there is some sense that the GOP is falling in line. The people aren’t in love with the GOP, they are in love with Donald Trump.
Nobody loves the Republican Party. It is seen either as a means to an end, or it is viewed as anathema.
A fair number of Never Trumpers see the party as something that is detested and many think it is now time to look to the Democrats. People associated with the Bulwark are starting to believe that maybe it’s time for former Republicans to become the conservative wing of the Democrats or at the very least work more closely with President Biden. Bill Kristol is placing trials balloons about such an idea and so is writer Tim Miller.
It is a tempting if not logical move. If you aren’t liked by your old party, then why stick with it? In fact, it has been the move that many people over the years have done as the GOP moved further and further to the right.
It’s a good move at a personal level. You no longer have to try to explain yourself. You no longer get strange stares from people when you reveal what party you belong to. You no longer feel uncomfortable when some politician does something stupid. You hope that maybe the GOP will collapse under its own right-wing weight. Sweet Justice.
But does it make sense for Never Trumpers to leave the GOP and the wider conservative movement from a larger perspective? What if leaving the party and movement might make one feel well but the decision is bad for democracy? What if democracies thrive only when there are strong conservative parties dedicated to the experiment in freedom?
Writer Sean Illing notes that democracies balance stability and equality. Left-leaning parties tend to support equality while conservative parties lean toward stability. This makes conservative parties the lynchpin in a liberal democracy. In a functioning democracy, Illing says that center-right parties respond to the center-left party’s desire for equality by promoting stability. But if the center-right party stops supporting stability and becomes more radical, then democracy is in peril.
American political scientist Daniel Ziblatt believes that conservatives are key to whether or not democracies live or die. That can only happen when conservatives are willing to “quarantine” far-right elements. “ In countries where the center-right is willing to quarantine the far-right, undemocratic forces should be politically neutralized,” Ziblatt says in a 2017 interview in the Washington Post. “But when the center-right gives in to the temptation to try to use the far-right because it thinks that’s the only way it can win, then their Faustian bargain can end up like they all do: not as they expected. Mainstream conservatives might find out that they, and not the radicals, were the ones being manipulated. That they weren’t appeasing the far-right, but empowering it.”
Sound familiar? German conservatives in the 1930s thought they could control and tame the Nazis. That didn’t end well.
One of the problems with the modern Republican party is not just the politicians, but their activist base. How the party handles its voters matters. Ziblatt observes that strong political parties are able to direct the passions of the voters while weak parties end up being driven by the voters. “If you have a strong conservative party, one that has what I call organizational firewalls that can mobilize voters and mobilize activists while allowing the leaders to keep control of the party, then democracy can be stable. But if you have a party that is weakly organized, and in some ways porous almost like a holding company of different groups and interests, where the leadership doesn’t have a monopoly on financing and selection of candidates, then it’s much more prone to radicalism,” Ziblatt says.
As Ziblatt and others note, when a conservative party succumbs to radicalism democracy as a whole is threatened. So leaving the party for greener and less authoritarian pastures can make someone feel better, but if said conservative party becomes radicalized, the entirety of democratic society is at stake.
So, what can be done? Even Ziblatt thinks the GOP is too far to the right to be brought back towards the center. While I believe in creating a brand new center-right party that can compete and by all means take on the Republicans, there is still a case to be made for fighting for change from within the GOP. But for that to happen, anti-Trump critics have to be clear in what they believe and they must be able to provide a clear alternative instead of leaving the party for dead because in the end, it doesn’t die.
Commentator Yauscha Mounk is correct in saying that having a two-party system where one party isn’t backing the democratic process is dangerous:
In a country with two major parties, democracy is safe only if both care more about preserving the political system than about beating their opponents. But one of America’s big parties is now willing to break the most basic rule of democracy: that free and fair elections should determine who gets to govern, and that those who lose must accept the legitimacy of their successor. The danger for American democracy is far from over. Until the Republican Party banishes Trump and drops his big lie, every presidential election will be a potential extinction-level event. (Emphasis mine)
GOP legislators in various states are working hard to find ways to limit the vote, especially the ability vote by mail. They are working to restrict voting by certain racial and ethnic groups they perceive to favor Democrats, in essence placing a thumb on the scale to ensure Republicans can win races. They aren’t interested in persuasion but making sure other certain populations can’t vote.
To simply walk away and join the Democrats is not going to be a happily ever after kind of affair. Even after all the mess President Trump and Republican congressional leaders did, they still managed to not totally implode in 2020. The GOP will not wither and die. Instead, the Republican Party will continue to be a threat to the democratic order unless it is changed from within or it is replaced by a third party.
Either option means that anti-Trump forces have to do two things: explain clearly what they are for and why they believe what they believe, and be willing to create a conservative domestic policy that will benefit average Americans.
Jerry Taylor and Samuel Hammond of the Niskanen Center believe that one way the Republicans can wrest control from Trump and his minions in moving away from “zombie Reaganism” and provide solutions for the 2020s and not the 1980s. “Transcending Trump starts with a recognition that there’s no going back to the stale, threadbare brand of Conservative Inc. that he warred against in 2016 to great effect,” they argue. They observe that Trump built his MAGA movement based on the despair plaguing the working class. So, the answer is providing the agenda to that provides “bread” to Donald Trump’s “circuses.” This would include a child allowance like the one proposed by Utah Republican Senator Mitt Romney, universal catastrophic health insurance, a focus on struggling parts of the United States and Federal revenue sharing.
Would they work? Past experience says yes. Taylor and Hammond recall the experience of the Conservative Party in Canada. The Canadian right was fractured in the 90s and early aughts. A brand new Conservative Party brought the factions together and under party leader and later Prime Minister Stephen Harper, put forward a bold domestic policy that included Romney-style child allowances. The result is that Canada is one of the few democracies that hasn’t faced the rise of a far right-wing movement.
Does this mean staying in the party and working for change or leaving to create a new one? The answer is: yes. What matters is how to keep the center-right supporting democracy and if that means working for change from within and/or creating a body that will represent a healthy center-right then so be it.
You can work with President Biden in the short term, there is nothing wrong with that. But you can’t leave the GOP to its own devices, not in a two-party system. You either need to create a party to displace the GOP or work for reform from the inside.
C. Scott Peters a professor at the University of Northern Iowa believes that Republicans must reject Trump’s authoritarianism in order to keep democracy safe.
Republicans must do everything in their power to sideline the populist, authoritarian forces that Trump has emboldened. All Republican office holders and leaders must reject Trump and all colleagues, candidates, and public figures who seek to undermine democratic rules and norms. They should not campaign with them, support their bills, or share their social media posts. They must reject not only Trump, but Trumpism in all its forms. Until they do so, our democracy will remain in peril.
We know that not every Republican in office is going to do this. In fact, it has been a small amount. But that doesn’t mean that it is a lost cause. There are lawmakers and others who are willing to repudiate Trump and Trumpism. Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s Country First PAC is working to support politicians that are willing to challenge Trump. So is the Republican Accountability Project. There are people trying to get the party to a point where they can give Trump and Trumpism the kiss-off.
Shelley’s poem, Adonais, is written in honor of his friend and fellow poet John Keats. “Weep for Adonais is dead!” says the writer, imploring that it is time to mourn a passing. But to mourn something, you have to love it. When I talked about the fact that no one loves the GOP, I wasn’t talking about actually loving the party as much as what it represents or could represent if it is true to itself: the loss of the GOP as it is subsumed into Trumpism is to mourn the loss of democracy because no system can survive with just one party in favor of freedom.
Shelley ends his poem with a note of hope; he realizes his Adonais has gone to the next life:
Whilst, burning through the inmost veil of Heaven, The soul of Adonais, like a star, Beacons from the abode where the Eternal are.
We have to have hope that our democratic order can survive, but we have to mourn what has happened, what has been lost and hope at what can be regained.
Who mourns for the GOP? Everyone one of us should, regardless of party.
Originally posted at Medium.
I’m enjoying the podcast so far BTW.
The GOP isn’t going anywhere and single party states don’t work well. Even with all the dumber then a bag of hammers culture war stuff there might be some near term hope for the Rs if they weren’t so set on voter suppression. There is no working with that so I don’t know what the answer is.
One problem the Rs have is so many seem to see any adaptation or evolution of their prescious principals as anathema. Principals are great and all, but there are many ways they can be put in practice or even not always work well in practice. But Rs won’t hear any of that so any sort pragmatic solution or learning seems out of the question. Ug.Report
Ideally, we should just be able to create a competing conservative party that would eclipse the GOP. But IIRC, we can’t, because the two main parties have so incorporated themselves specifically into law that you can’t just fire up a new party and allow the GOP to dissolve without legislative action.Report
The 2010 governor’s election in Colorado is instructive. Colorado law only differentiates between major and minor parties. Major parties are those that get >10% of the votes in the governor’s election, minor parties those with <10%. In 2010 the Republicans’ process produced a terrible nominee. A more popular Republican switched to the Constitution Party. Final results: D 51%, C 36%, R 11%. During the final days of the campaign, the Republicans were polling below 10% and pleading with their members to vote for the Republican to avoid being classified as a minor party.
The next year, the Constitution Party had to follow the law for major parties. That required lots more document filing and procedures. They simply lacked the infrastructure and membership to keep up and dissolved part way through the year. The Republicans, despite how close they came to minor party status, had no problem keeping up with the paperwork.Report
You can count the number of social constructs the left wont infiltrate on one hand and have fingers left over. They are far right.
Everything else is subject to leftism erosion, including the GOP.
The only thing that stops leftism erosion is radicalism or extremism. There are no other tools.Report
Nice to see you settling into the “rhetoric that tacitly supports fascism” role.Report
The modern American left is functionally like Godzilla, destroying cities in demented rage. But sure, let’s talk some more about the Republican Party not being moderate enough.Report
Well I love godzilla and I’m a liberal so in guess this is a completely correct and the reason why not to talk about the RsReport
Obviously my comment wasn’t intended as a detailed description of the problem.Report
An illustrative case in point.Report
What’s that mean? Do you think I’m a radical rightist?Report
I think you’re as much a radical rightist as Democrats, or the left in general, are destroying cities like Godzilla; which is to say it depends on how one defines the particulars.Report
Where “moderate” means acknowledging that inciting a riot to overturn an election is a crime.Report
An important element of the Canadian example is they needed a long period of political irrelevancy before consolidation and moderation were on the table. The populist conservative movement represented by the Reform party existed for more than a decade and it took a long stretch of getting their butts whipped in every election before people were wiling to water their wine in a broader coalition.
Moderate centrist parties are the product of the electoral failure of uncompromising extreme parties. You don’t get there without the failure.Report
This is an especially salient point. The best thing liberals can do to speed the development of a sane new GOP is to enact popular policy, improve voters lives and beat the GOP like a fishing drum in election after election. Ol’ Jean Chrétien ran rings around the conservatives for a decade and his acolyte Martin imitated the act for a cycle or so more until the conservatives in Canada adapted and finally got themselves up off the matt.Report
I think you’re absolutely right that it’s what has to happen. However I also think it’s a lot harder in our system to truly lay down the level of spanking that can be achieved in a parliamentary model. Unlike them we have these cyclical forces around the separation of executive and legislative branch and set timing of elections that dampen the ability to sustain multi-cycle dominance.
I also think the Democrats seem to struggle to exploit GOP turmoil. Hb.1 is IMO a good example of that. You’ve got some concepts that are good ideas on their own merits and that would help tilt the playing field. But instead of a narrow, focused bill we’ve got an unpassable, constitutionally suspect, activist grab bag.
I also think the David Shor interview on Linky Friday was telling. There is no law set in stone that Democrats are guaranteed to run up the score with racial minorities in hugely one-sided ways. 2020 was a stark reminder that in America a thumping needs to be earned by one side as much as deserved by the other. It isn’t going to happen by default.Report
Yeah the American system is a tough nut to tackle. The Democratic Party is, in theory, overstuffed at the moment. The left wing idealists & fanatics (at least, what, three different flavors of each set of them!) packed in with the centrist pragmatists AND the centrist opportunists/corporatists AND now potentially the right wing moderates as well? That is a lot of cats to herd. That is a lot of fingers in the pies.
I share your concern about Hb.1; it will be an interesting experiment. The new Covid bill was absolutely necessary but also basically the bare minimum required for Biden to stay in business. Hb.1 could just go die in the Senate or, maybe, hopefully, it could end up batted viscously back and forth until the superfluous/indefensible crap is cleaved off. I don’t know what will happen.Report
Covid relief is definitely a victory and the Ds deserve a lot of credit for ramming it through. They both got Manchin and resisted the temptation to get stuck spinning wheels with the Romney version which is no small thing. Maybe there really has been some learning from Obama’s mistakes.
I’d love it if Hb.1 came back as some limited re-establishing of VRA and the non-partisan district line drawing commission. I have to think the House would still take that and it would be one of those rare things where the partisan interest is truly aligned with the national interest in maintaining democracy.Report
Yeah well unfortunately the GOP would still vote lockstep against even such a limited Hb. 1 bill. So it ultimately is a question of what Manchin and Sinema would do about it. Le sigh. If only Cunningham had kept it in his fishing pants!Report
Excellent essay.
I remember something that I said back when RTod was doing his “How to Fix a Broken Elephant” series.
That was back in 2016. So I’d say, now, the liberalism of 1991.Report
More like the conservatism of the 1850s. 1/6/2021 was Bleeding Kansas all over again.Report
It’s always been a risk to conflate ideological conservatism and contemporary American political conservatism. You can lose more information than you gain.
I’ve never been a fan of eliminating federal departments, if that just means redistributing the agencies and missions. But there’s hardly a less popular organization in the country than the educational bureaucracy is today. The argument for national educational policy has always been protecting the poor from falling behind in funding. But the priorities of the educational monolith these days seems to be paying off upper-middle-class student loans, teaching critical race theory, and getting boys on every sports team. And in the past year, someone left “education” off the list of priorities and no one’s noticed.
Anecdotally, more than half of the parents of K-12 kids I know have pulled their kids out of the system in the past year. And that’s not just a bunch of home-schooling preppers. In a year, we’ve gone from a governmental system doing a poor job educating lower- to middle-class children to a system not educating lower-class children.Report
And that system is, in the end, run locally. Which means to ding the federal Education Department for choice Des Moines makes is ridiculous. but sure, lets get rid of the one group actually looking around at what works and what doesn’t and trying get what works promulgated, instead of going to the local school board and demanding to know why they aren’t asking us to pay more for teachers and technology in the schools so that lower class folks CAN achieve what upper class folks achieve.Report
I think Sean Illing meant stability balanced with progress, rather than equality. High levels of inequality tend to correlate pretty strongly with social instability, which is why conservatives, as opposed to reactionaries, should support social mobility and relative equality.
But, I think in general, there’s a problem in contemporary politics that parties aim to rewrite the sales pitch instead of reworking the product.Report
And there you have the way in which American conservatism is the author of its own destruction. It let economic policies that may have had some merit in the context of the late 70s/80s turn into an ideological commitment to faux-Randianism (selectively applied of course). The instability that causes drives the appetite for policies and pathologies conservatives loath.Report
The GOP is reacting to the loss of the presidency and Congress by doubling down on vote suppression. It needs to die in a fire.Report
I think this critique is very on point. Every democracy has a tug of war between two forces. Call them revolutionary and conservative. You need both. If the conservatives have absolute control, you have a decaying Empire. But if the revolutionaries take over, you have the Killing Fields.
The asymmetry is that you can tolerate a lot crazy in the revolutionary segment; that’s what they’re for. but if the conservative segment gets crazy, you’re in big trouble.Report
I have to disagree. There are dozens of political disputes that don’t line up with two sides corresponding to conservative and revolutionary. Witness the arguments within conservatism and within liberalism, with multiple groups claiming authenticity. Views on centralized versus regional control don’t line up the same country to country. Regional independence movements often have cultural or ethnic roots, and those get complicated. Add in disputes over elitism versus populism, and differing views on the role of religion, or the role of which religion.Report
“There is an old saying that Democrats fall in love, and Republicans fall in line. The old saying believes that Democrats have feelings for their party and aren’t going to easily leave the party”
That has not ever been my understanding of that line, and your conclusion there is probably directly opposite of what that line you should drive you to.
“Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line” is a pithy little statement about how Republicans tend to close up ranks behind a chosen candidate, no matter what, whereas Democrats will cheerfully keep infighting well past the primary and into the general election because their special snowflake of a candidate didn’t get enough time at the second debate and was therefore ROBBED.
The statement is normally read to me Republicans are prone to place party above candidate, whereas Democrats are more prone to place the candidate above party loyalty. Frankly the only thing that prevented 2016 from having the same level of Democratic infighting was Trump being extraordinarily disliked among the left.
If anything, what you should take from “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line” is that it takes a particularly extreme case for a Republican to walk away from the party, whereas your average Democrat will stay home on election day because — as noted — their preferred candidate was screwed out of 30 seconds at a debate, therefore DNC elite conspiracy rigged election to prevent blah-blah-blah”Report
This is also a central tenant of the various disinformation campaigns – trash the democrats enough and their people stay home. which is part and parcel of why Republicans want to force people to vote on a designated election day because they know their voters will turn out.Report