Another week, another day of more good news on the vaccine front:
In an analysis released Wednesday, the US Food and Drug Administration said the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine has met the requirements for emergency use authorization — another step toward the authorization of a third shot for the United States.
The efficacy of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine against moderate to severe/critical Covid-19 across all geographic areas was 66.9% at least 14 days after the single-dose vaccination and 66.1% at least 28 days after vaccination, according to the analysis, which is meant to brief the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee.
There’s also an 85% reduction in the most serious cases and new data showing that it works against the new COVID variants. 66% only sounds low because we are using the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines as our benchmark. This efficacy is better than the seasonal flu vaccine and good enough that it can deny the virus the pathways it needs to spread. Johnson and Johnson have hinted that they could have 100 million doses by June. Combined with the other vaccines and those that have already had the disease, that means we could be approaching herd immunity by summer.
The Johnson and Johnson vaccine, like the AztraZeneca vaccine and the Sputnik vaccine, is a viral vector vaccine. The injection has a cold virus that latches onto your cells. Only instead of injecting a blueprint to make more cold virus, it injects a blueprint to make the COVID-19 spike protein. After that, it’s just like the mRNA vaccines. Your body starts making the spike protein. Your immune system recognizes the threat, figures out how to kill it and stores the battle plans in case it needs them again. XKCD explains the process with Star Wars analogies.
But, oh it gets better. The first results of Israel’s vaccination plan have shown it is just as effective in the wild as it is in the lab, with stunning reductions in serious cases and mortality. And there is some very preliminary data indicating that it may actually stop infection — that is, that you can’t transmit the disease as effectively when you’re vaccinated. If confirmed, that would not only a big deal for getting this pandemic under control; it would mean that vaccinated people are safe to interact with unvaccinated people. It would mean we can start easing up COVID restrictions.
It has been almost exactly one year since I first wrote about the Coronavirus. I think most of that piece holds up. I badly overestimated how well our government would respond to the threat and how much it would disrupt our society. But overall, this has been serious but not the end of the world. And I especially stand by this.
We are fortunate right now to live in an era of relative peace and reasonable international cooperation. And we are very fortunate to also live in a golden age of science. Some of the finest minds in human history are using the most sophisticated technology in human history to figure out ways to treat or vaccinate against this virus.
It has been one hell of a 366 days. We have seen millions of our fellow Americans get sick and hundreds of thousands die. We have fought over mask mandates, shutdowns and lockdowns. We have seen medical miracles and medical failures. I have written more words about this pandemic than I probably have about anything in my life outside of professional pursuits. And I’m sure you guys are getting sick of hearing about it. But throughout the last year, I have repeated the mantra “know hope”. And that paragraph above is why. Because I knew that brilliant people were working on this. And if there was a way to be found, they would.
As you read these words, I may be getting my second dose of the Pfizer vaccine. The first dose gave me a small amount of muscle soreness and a mild cough; my wife had the same symptoms only a bit worse. I still don’t think it’s appropriate for young people given both the novelty of the technology and the extreme mildness of the disease among children. But the more people we vaccinate, the more the virus will find itself walled off, its reach shrinking, its terror fading. We may never reach “COVID zero”. But we can knock this thing back to where we just have small outbreaks that are quickly controlled.
Congratulations to the people at Johnson and Johnson. They’ve just added another weapon to our growing arsenal.
“We may never reach “COVID zero”. But we can knock this thing back to where we just have small outbreaks that are quickly controlled.”
Until the powers that be decide that Covid Negative One is the only scenario in which we can be safe.Report
Stop paying so much attention to Fauci. He’s gonna cry wolf himself into obscurity.Report
Agreed. The politicians know better than to keep the pedal down on restrictions regardless of what Fauci says.Report
Do they know better? Or, the better question, are they politically able to act according to that knowledge? I’m not hearing about a lot of school openings, for example.Report
lots of schools are and have been open around the nation, especially in Red states. So you aren’t hearing about it because they don’t need to do it. Reports from several blue states is they are not reopening yet at all.Report
That’s my point though. If more things are becoming viable, but we’re not seeing changes, then politicians aren’t yet demonstrating the ability to adapt.Report
its not an ability question.Report
Fauci himself has said that he can only advise on the science. Balancing that with economic concerns is properly the job of politicians. I wish the press would head that.Report
He’s also following the CDC, who are understandably risk adverse. But yes, not his job to set policy, merely to inform, and the press fails to note that little detail.
Thus we have episode {very large number} of “Humans suck at risk assessment”Report
“Risk assessment”.
If a device makes something less likely, but not impossible, there are people who will see that and say “oh, those devices don’t work”.
“The numbers went from 10,000 to 800.”
“800! That’s a horrible number!”Report
Similarly…
“X reduces the risk by 50%! We must do X at all costs!”
“Um… it reduces the frequency from .001% to .0005%.”
“Exactly. If it saves .0005 of a life…”Report
“How much does it cost?”
“Manufacturing costs are around $5000.”
“It should be available to *EVERYONE*.”Report
It’s funny… where I saw this most evident was with SIDS prevention, where most mitigation costs were $0.
“Back to sleep! It’s safest.”
“It sure is but my 18-month-old just can’t sleep that way any longer.”
“WHY DO YOU WANT TO KILL ALL THE BABIES???”Report
Oooh, nice.
“How much does it cost?”
“Cost? It’s free.”
“THEN WE SHOULD MAKE IT MANDATORY.”Report
“How will we enforce it?”
“The best way known to humans: intense public shaming and a complete lack of understanding or empathy.”
“Can we extend the mandate to folks for whom it offers no benefit?”
“Of course.”Report
Maybe we could replace him with, I don’t know, a radiologist who think the answer is herd immunity.Report
God no….
I don’t want to replace him, just stop giving his opinion ALL the weight.
Like, just because the police in IL are opposed to ending cash bail does not mean we should give their opinion regarding the topic all the weight when decisions are made.Report
I think he was given so much weight because the alternative was a malicious death cult. The Ds can (and will) say that he’s being over-cautious, while the Rs are still freaking out about masks and saying it’ll all be fine if you drink tonic water and mainline bleach.Report
Yeah, compared to the other options, Fauci seemed super sensible.
I admit I probably went more extreme on self-protection (to the detriment of my mental health) than I needed to, but then again….I didn’t catch COVID.
So much of the messaging in this whole thing was so horrifically bad.
If you had told me in February 2020 that masks would become a political hot button, with people refusing to wear them, throwing tantrums when asked to, and mocking those who do, I’d have laughed at you. And I’d have been totally wrong.Report
I always thought Fauci was being overly cautious, but he made a significant amount of sense at the start. Now, however…
Thing is, I’m not necessarily going to toss all my masks this summer. I’ve been able to make it this far without so much as catching a cold., much less the flu. Some of that is certainly due to avoiding eating out and social distancing, but the masks have helped. As a general rule, adopting the masking wear habits of, say, Hong Kong or Tokyo is not a bad thing.
If you are feeling sick, wear a mask. If you can’t afford to be sick, wear a mask.
Maybe cold and flu season wouldn’t be such a thing…Report
Back at the end of last year I gave an online presentation to our Seoul office. (South Korea, as I expect people know, has done an exemplary job continuing the virus. 90K cases, 1600 deaths.) They were in the office, seated normally around a table, but all masked.Report
Love XKCD, that would have been a great Star Wars version.Report
A year into a pandemic, and the number of my fellow citizens still unaware that their nose-hole connects to their lungs is staggering.Report