Mini-Throughput: A Year of COVID

Michael Siegel

Michael Siegel is an astronomer living in Pennsylvania. He blogs at his own site, and has written a novel.

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23 Responses

  1. Kazzy says:

    “We may never reach “COVID zero”. But we can knock this thing back to where we just have small outbreaks that are quickly controlled.”

    Until the powers that be decide that Covid Negative One is the only scenario in which we can be safe.Report

    • Oscar Gordon in reply to Kazzy says:

      Stop paying so much attention to Fauci. He’s gonna cry wolf himself into obscurity.Report

      • North in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

        Agreed. The politicians know better than to keep the pedal down on restrictions regardless of what Fauci says.Report

      • Fauci himself has said that he can only advise on the science. Balancing that with economic concerns is properly the job of politicians. I wish the press would head that.Report

        • Oscar Gordon in reply to Michael Siegel says:

          He’s also following the CDC, who are understandably risk adverse. But yes, not his job to set policy, merely to inform, and the press fails to note that little detail.

          Thus we have episode {very large number} of “Humans suck at risk assessment”Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

            “Risk assessment”.

            If a device makes something less likely, but not impossible, there are people who will see that and say “oh, those devices don’t work”.

            “The numbers went from 10,000 to 800.”
            “800! That’s a horrible number!”Report

            • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

              Similarly…
              “X reduces the risk by 50%! We must do X at all costs!”
              “Um… it reduces the frequency from .001% to .0005%.”
              “Exactly. If it saves .0005 of a life…”Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                “How much does it cost?”
                “Manufacturing costs are around $5000.”
                “It should be available to *EVERYONE*.”Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                It’s funny… where I saw this most evident was with SIDS prevention, where most mitigation costs were $0.

                “Back to sleep! It’s safest.”
                “It sure is but my 18-month-old just can’t sleep that way any longer.”
                “WHY DO YOU WANT TO KILL ALL THE BABIES???”Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                Oooh, nice.

                “How much does it cost?”
                “Cost? It’s free.”
                “THEN WE SHOULD MAKE IT MANDATORY.”Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                “How will we enforce it?”
                “The best way known to humans: intense public shaming and a complete lack of understanding or empathy.”
                “Can we extend the mandate to folks for whom it offers no benefit?”
                “Of course.”Report

      • Maybe we could replace him with, I don’t know, a radiologist who think the answer is herd immunity.Report

        • Oscar Gordon in reply to Mike Schilling says:

          God no….

          I don’t want to replace him, just stop giving his opinion ALL the weight.

          Like, just because the police in IL are opposed to ending cash bail does not mean we should give their opinion regarding the topic all the weight when decisions are made.Report

          • I think he was given so much weight because the alternative was a malicious death cult. The Ds can (and will) say that he’s being over-cautious, while the Rs are still freaking out about masks and saying it’ll all be fine if you drink tonic water and mainline bleach.Report

            • Yeah, compared to the other options, Fauci seemed super sensible.

              I admit I probably went more extreme on self-protection (to the detriment of my mental health) than I needed to, but then again….I didn’t catch COVID.

              So much of the messaging in this whole thing was so horrifically bad.

              If you had told me in February 2020 that masks would become a political hot button, with people refusing to wear them, throwing tantrums when asked to, and mocking those who do, I’d have laughed at you. And I’d have been totally wrong.Report

            • Oscar Gordon in reply to Mike Schilling says:

              I always thought Fauci was being overly cautious, but he made a significant amount of sense at the start. Now, however…

              Thing is, I’m not necessarily going to toss all my masks this summer. I’ve been able to make it this far without so much as catching a cold., much less the flu. Some of that is certainly due to avoiding eating out and social distancing, but the masks have helped. As a general rule, adopting the masking wear habits of, say, Hong Kong or Tokyo is not a bad thing.

              If you are feeling sick, wear a mask. If you can’t afford to be sick, wear a mask.

              Maybe cold and flu season wouldn’t be such a thing…Report

              • Mike Schilling in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

                Back at the end of last year I gave an online presentation to our Seoul office. (South Korea, as I expect people know, has done an exemplary job continuing the virus. 90K cases, 1600 deaths.) They were in the office, seated normally around a table, but all masked.Report

  2. Oscar Gordon says:

    Love XKCD, that would have been a great Star Wars version.Report

  3. JS says:

    A year into a pandemic, and the number of my fellow citizens still unaware that their nose-hole connects to their lungs is staggering.Report