Morning Ed: Covid-19
{Co1} Bloomberg presents twenty graphs showing how the pandemic has changed our behavior.
{Co2} The lockdown has given the environment a reprieve, but not for long.
{Co3} Another look at pandemics past, this time about what rich people did.
{Co4} This is actually a very helpful guide to socializing during a pandemic that both recognizes the risks and the need to take them. I wish we’d had more of these from the start.
{Co5} Putin’s plans for Russia have been derailed by the virus. the Center for Strategic & International Studies looks at what happened and where Russia might go from here.
{Co6} Researchers, archivists, and amateurs are trying to record how we are experiencing the pandemic and adapting to it.
{Co7} Absent a staggering infection rate, the protests have probably rendered it moot, but things are looking good for schools reopen.
{Co8} ACK! Disruption by the virus may cause enormous amounts of cheese to go to waste.
{Co9} Is the future of international travel going to be based on reciprocal agreements?
Links are not links? Some kind of formatting issue?Report
Fixed!Report
[CO8] this is pretty much what the American food-supply chain has been doing for the past three months:
https://youtu.be/YgxQeCcm2dgReport
Co4: I agree with the article generally but it refers to one of those few things that made me really angry because it seemed so clueless, that is the suggestion of the Netherlands government that people find a friends with benefit for the Covid-19 pandemic if they weren’t in a relationship. Like it’s that easy, All you have to do is put yourself out there and post and something will materialize. A lot of times the advice people who have access to sex and easy time getting it have for everybody else sounds really like the sort of clueless advice that wealthy people have for the poor people. There are all sorts of great investment opportunities that are all yours for just a mere $10,000. This comes across as insensitive in the extreme.Report
Where did they say it was easy? People were wondering how they could practice safe sex amidst the pandemic if they didn’t have an in-house partner with which to do so. The Netherlands offered guidance beyond the “Sorry not sorry” offered elsewhere.
Should they not have offered that advice because it would be hard or impossible for some to follow?Report
They didn’t say it was easy in words but the entire people should find a sex buddy suggests that all people had to do is ask somebody they know and that getting a willing partner would not be that hard.Report
So no one should offer advice unless it’s advice anyone could follow easily?Report
Should they have added a footnote, “Unless you’re an incel”? Would that have made you feel better?Report
hey remember that when I said you were really mean to LeeEsq and you got all mad about me saying thatReport
Ah, but I belong to a demographic group that deserves this in certain cosmologies.Report
No one here is saying you deserve this. I’m just wondering what you think the advise should have looked like. Specifically, it is understood that “dating around” is unsafe, but the Dutch government understands that people will want to date, so they suggest a compromise: for the duration of the lockdown, find one person. That is sensible advice. Surely you agree with the advice, yes? So what should they have said?
Note, the advice isn’t intended for everyone. It is intended for people who would otherwise “date around.”Report
In his daily Covid briefings, Kentucky’s governor told women not to date until they’re 30. It’s doable.Report
What I am to conclude from that, except perhaps the Kentucky governor is a complete troglodyte?
Anyway, the answer is “Fuck off you regressive goon. Die mad about it.”
(I intend that message to the governor. It’s applicability to anyone else is left unstated.)Report
Note, a cursory google search provided no evidence that the Governor actually said that. Make of that what you will.
I suppose I could try googling more, or I choose not to do that.Report
He said it when I was in the KFC drive-thru back in March. It showed his profound wisdom, and I doubt he found any disagreement on it from the many dads out there. 🙂Report
Personally I have rather limited experience with abusive and controlling men. However, I know they exist. I’ve certainly seen the effects they have on the world.
I’m sure the governor is very popular with abusive, controlling men. This is unsurprising. We know what you are. You tell on yourselves at every change.
Fortunately, people can escape from abusers. It isn’t always easy, but it can be done. There is support. Moreover, I find the most valuable tool is to teach people what abuse looks like, and how abusers can be dads and teachers and cops and even governors. Men who have a need to control have disease in their minds. They’re monsters. Teach people to see that, and they will be free.Report
What is sexual freedom to somebody nobody seems to want? The women who seem to see value you in me do not want me romantically or sexually because either they have somebody or just don’t see me that way for different reasons while the women who see me in a romantic/sexual manner only do so in a negative fashion. Why should people in my position be called constantly to support a system that leaves them in the cold?
I feel excluded and left out while people feel free to impose any demand, and extraction they want. I didn’t have a high school girlfriend, college girl friend, law school girlfriend, twenty something girlfriend, or thirty something girlfriend. I’m angry, looking for answer, and people seem to hate my question so much that nobody wants me to even think about them let alone answer them. Just fish that. Not good enough. Whatever people have to offer is not good enough, Their demands out weight what they are willing to give.Report
I feel as if we’ve covered this topic before. My position remains the same. You have the same sexual freedom as everyone else. You have the same right to seek companionship as anyone.
You constantly repeat your “support the system” thing, but you’ve never described what that means. People form relationships separate from you. When I meet someone, I don’t ask anyone else if it’s okay, just my potential partner. Our relationship is ours.
Anyway, I suppose there is a “system” in a sociological sense, but in fact there are many systems, just as there are many subcultures. I know weird nerdy guys, short, bald, etcetera, who get laid, because they’re not trying at nightclubs. Instead, they’re into SCA or some shit like that. They date weird SCA girls. It seems to work for them. They seem happy (even if the pretty people look down on them for being fat or whatever).
People (many of us) don’t want to help you because you’re frustrated and bitter. It’s understandable, perhaps, that you feel this way, but there isn’t much anyone can do. Many people have tried many times, but after a while it’s a record on repeat, same song, same notes.Report
Maybe I just feel that I’m basically community less when it comes to women. I’m not the night club person, I’m not the partner dance scene person, and I’m not into things like RPGs or cosplay enough for the SCA. So where am I supposed to look? I can’t even do the sort of ra-ra girl power countries led by women are dealing with Covid-19 better thing. So where am I supposed to look?
Yesterday I was at social event where I was the only man and towards then end the women started complaining about men. It was rather anodyne stuff but I didn’t feel comfortable about it. What does it mean that you are the type of man that women feel free to talk generalized shit about your gender in front of you? That you aren’t really seen that way, so they feel free to talk about this?Report
I just feel community less. I’m not the not club guy obviously but I’m not nerdy enough for the SCA or anything similar. Even in the partner dance scene, I don’t seem to really fit in because it seems dominated by nightclub people and/or nerdy people. So I have no idea where I’m supposed to look.Report
The labor theory of value doesn’t work in a lot of places but it especially doesn’t work here.
(Dude. Start going to Synagogue again.)Report
I want to have my fun, not be the type of person that gets turned to after the party is over to get to work. That really isn’t that thrilling.Report
People in Hell want ice water.Report
“… the women who see me in a romantic/sexual manner only do so in a negative fashion.”
What’s this even mean?
Separately, if the current system is a problem for you, what alternate system do you propose?
Our current system says people are free to pursue any relationship they desire and any consensual adults* are welcome to engage in whatever relationships they like. Some such relationships may draw the ire or shame of others, though the system generally allows for it at least from a legal standpoint.
Is there a different system you’d like to see?
* Yes, yes, minors can pursue relationships with one another with varying degrees of limitations based on the state one is in and sometimes adults and minors can engage in relationships etc etc… none of that is really material to this conversation.Report
Shoot, I’m over here realizing I don’t have any friends close enough to be a without-benefits socializing “bubble buddy,” forget any of that other stuff.
My close friends live too far away and my local friends aren’t “close” enoughReport
Co9: I wonder if it will be years before U.S. citizens and residents are allowed to partake in international travel (recreational or otherwise) because of our vastly disproportionate responses. It certainly is not going to be a priority for Trump’s state department. This one has me filled with a lot of despair because we would visit my girlfriend’s family in Singapore every holiday. I suppose missing it for one year is not so bad for me but it does suck. Her missing it is going to be harder if she needs to spend it in quarantine.
The interesting question right now is that there seems to be a mixed bag of political and psychological will on how long shelter-in-place should last. Are places just going to quickly reopen now or will these travel bubbles last for a few yearsReport
I’m wondering when dancing will be allowed again. I think what is driving a lot of this resentment is that some activities are a lot easier for government to regulate entirely or can be changed enough to kind of fit within the Covid-19 social call. So governments can pretty much close down all the gyms, museums, theaters, concert venues, and dance studios/places but other activities kind of operate in the dark or semi-dark and aren’t that easy for government to shut down. Some hobbies have more scofflaws in them too, meaning the chances of operating against the restrictions are higher for better or worse. So it feels like the mild hedonists have to take the sacrificial hit while sanctimonious religious people or the more wild sort of hedonist doesn’t have to stop pursuing their pleasure during the pandemic.Report
From the videos I’ve seen on Tik Tok, “crumping” appears to be back.Report
I just read the Wiki article on crumping. Street dancing seems to be way more complicated than I had originally thought.Report
Co8: As I understand it, the food supply chains for places like hotels and restaurants is different than the food supply chains for supermarkets/grocery stores. So a lot of farmers or suppliers which normally supply restaurants do not know how to get all their product to market. A lot of strawberries are going to waste because of this in California.
In SF (and maybe other cities), a lot of whole salers that normally supply restaurants have taken to selling to people directly. A lot of these companies tend to specialize in one product though and need to learn to expand. So you have a former seafood or meat wholesaler that is now picking up produce too.
We have used some of these services and I gotta say that the quality of meat and seafood is better.Report
It’s not so much a need to learn as a need to change their business infrastructure.Report
Which can simultaneously look like opportunity and risk. At a minimum, it’s risk with some opportunity that may or may not survive a return to ordinary(-ish) business. So there’s still an investment hurdle that acts as a barrier that isn’t a “no-brainer” to surmount.Report
From what I have seen, America seems to be holding at a plateau, where we aren’t experiencing the steep drop like other nations have, but are just continuing to experience it as it moves slowly through all the rural areas previously unaffected.
Which seems to indicate this is going to be with us a long long time, and the longer we get used to something, the more it permanently changes our behavior.Report
Not sure I agree. We’ve seen peaks and dips in local areas but nationally have a plateau because we are so spread out and diverse in terms of density and what not. We’ll dip eventually, potentially with periodic and/or localized spikes.Report
I’m thinking many of the Great Plains states (for example) have not seen a “first peak” yet – we will probably see ours as New York state either re-opens more fully, or even sees its second peak.
We’re supposed to re-open in person for fall semester. One colleague of mine has already declared he is teaching online as much as possible (I think he has a health challenge). We are then going to online AFTER THANKSGIVING AND FOR FINALS WEEK.
I can only assume they are afraid people will travel for Thanksgiving, be infected, and bring it back to campus.
I’ve already told my mom there’s a better than 50% chance I won’t be going to her place for Thanksgiving. It breaks my heart but I will have been exposed to all my students in the weeks right before that, no way I can do the two-week-wait-to-be-sure then. My mom is pretty healthy but she is also 84…
I am hoping it feels OK to travel at Christmas, but as I can’t drive myself (too far) and it would involve some form of mass transit, I don’t even know.
I admit I try hard not to think about that because it makes me too sad if I think about it very much.Report
I wonder if some states may see “humps” or “hills” rather than peaks.
NYC-area schools are discussing an August opening, which is generally unheard of. The logic may be to get in as many days as we can before a second seasonal spike may hit. I hadn’t considered the Thanksgiving travel challenges. An extended winter break was also discussed. Maybe it’ll stretch Thanksgiving to January and we’ll cut spring days off. Wouldn’t be the worst idea.Report
I admit to being confused why we still don’t know anything yet.Report
Don’t know anything about what?Report
What’s on second. We know why he’s left.Report
Well, “anything” is an overstatement. But we now know that it the COVID doesn’t really transfer via touching things. So the hand sanitizer and Lysol wipes probably aren’t things that we needed to panic about.
Masks, however, *WERE* things that we needed to panic about.
Which means that to-go/pick-up was something that we probably should have pushed a lot more on those who were still jobbed while in quarantine. (Quit posting pictures of your sourdough to Instagram and order out, dang it!)
But we don’t know how bad outdoor transmission is.
Were the Memorial Day get togethers that took place outside killing gramma or not?
Are the riots going to kill gramma?
Will baseball coming back kill gramma?
Is there an amount of air circulation within buildings that would help prevent gramma’s death?
I’d say that we should continue to err on the side of caution… but officials have pointed out that the protests outside are good, actually.
And I don’t know what level of caution it’s appropriate to have as a baseline to err on the side of.Report
I’m unclear how any of that relates to what I said.Report
Please don’t read it as me saying it as if I were arguing with what you were saying.
See me as looking at your various predictions and saying what I said as if I were feeling helpless rather than querulous.Report
My daughter’s college also just announced reopening to in-person classes for the Fall, with what sounds like the same switch to online courses at Thanksgiving break. They also removed the Wednesday before Thanksgiving from the break and a two-day break btw/ quarters. Yeah, that seems like they worried about travel. Probably means we go visit her again and wander around looking for a place open on Thanksgiving. Or she might just want to come home if she doesn’t need to be on campus.
I am wondering about how far testing will be by that time, in terms of availability, reliability and turnaround time.Report
“From what I have seen, America seems to be holding at a plateau, where we aren’t experiencing the steep drop like other nations have, but are just continuing to experience it as it moves slowly through all the rural areas previously unaffected.”
Texas is seeing a fairly sharp increase — and not from “more testing”. I’m certain this will be blamed on the protests, despite the actual math indicating the seeds for this were sown in May.
Personally, it appears to be a combination of Abbot lifting the lock-down carelessly — not only not adhering to guidelines, but moving through phases too quickly for the results of the previous phase to even be seen — and the general mixed response in Texas to masks.
I’m coming around to the conclusion that public mask wearing, although with work-from-home when applicable — to reduce lengthy exposure — is mitigating things far more than anyone had dared hope. Unfortunately, we need 80%+ to be wearing masks and in Texas it’s a good day if it’s 50%.Report
New Zealand is free of COVID cases as of Monday, and we’ve just dropped our Alert level down to the minimum – basically the border control are in place and we’re being asked to keep track of our movements but otherwise things are largely back to normal here.
It looks like locking down hard and fast has worked out for us.Report
Paul Krugman agrees and argues that the U.S. failed by not doing so: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/opinion/coronavirus-reopening-marshmallow-test.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
The U.S. has too much negative partisanship and ideological hatred of the safety net to the locking down hard and fast method. It doesn’t help that we have an idiot in chief right now.Report
You had mentioned previously that you believed there was a strong probability of police enforcement of the country’s lock-down policies. I think that stands in strong contrast with the U.S., or at least in Illinois where there was no enforcement. Neither my state, nor my city, have made any arrests or issued citations for violating any stay-at-home order. In April, certain neighborhoods in my city, were having block parties of sometimes up to 1,000 people, and all the police would do would be to show up and wander around until people left.Report
The police were definitely out in force to enforce lockdown, from my point of view the US is weirdly over-policed and under-policed at the same time.Report
We’ve entered a weird zone where playdates for children are negotiated like drug deals between non-acquaintances or mobsters discussing a hit.
“Hey… uh… do your kids like water balloons?”
“My kids have been known to like water balloons.”
“Some kids like throwing water balloons at each other.”
“This is true. Kids do like throwing water balloons at each other.”
“Do yours?”
[Shrug emoji]
“Do yours?”
[Shrug emoji]
“Maybe uh…. maybe our kids could both throw water balloons in the same area one day.”
“Yes. Maybe.”
“Maybe… uh… tomorrow?”
[Shrug emoji]
[Shrug emoji]
(An hour later)
“I’ll bring the wine, you bring the beer.”
“What about the water balloons?”
“Who cares… the kids could have a lick fight for all I care.”Report
LMFAO!
Truth, brother.Report
I’m so scared of getting quarantine shamed, it’s all hush hush and codes. Thank goodness, I’m Italian!Report
I am dangerously low on Fucks to give about all this.Report
I am personally but I’m in an area with both high rates of Covid and Karen so I have to be careful.Report
There is a disturbingly high population of Karen’s here as well, I just don’t care.Report
Seems you have a case of DontGiveAFuckitis. I need to catch it.Report
There is much value in asking the question: “Is the opinion of this person worth caring about?”Report
I agree in general. The problem is finding yourself on the outside of certain parenting circles can leave your kid on the outside of certain social circles. And while part of me is of the mindset that would say, “Well, screw ’em,” I don’t want to limit their social opportunities like that, especially in a small, well-connected school and town.
Now, I can’t say for certain that is what would happen. But people have been turnt up about quarantine and all that, with a lot of social media shaming going on. So, I’ve put my feelers out there but with some subtly and directness so as not to expose myself as someone who is ready for the kids to reconnect for a game of “Let’s Kill Grandma” (even though all the orders that have recommended/restricted that have been rescinded, so we wouldn’t actually be “breaking” any “rules).Report