The last (2012) referendum was intentionally muddled by being drafted as two questions: first, change, or remain with the current status? then (only for Change voters) , if change, to what: statehood, independence or something strange no one knew what it was? All this with the intention of trying to nudge a result favorable towards statehood.
The results were Change won, with 52%, and statehood was the preferred Change option, with 60%. At the time it was read as the first vote for statehood, but the structure guaranteed it would never be a mandate for anything.
But it would be no different that the mandate David Cameron got in 2015. He got 36.9% of the vote (up from 36.1% in 2010) and 330 seats (up 24) Labour got 30.4% (up 1.4%) and 232 seats (down 26).
Under FPTP and Parliament Sovereignty Cameron could do anything he wanted with barely a third of the vote. And he called it a clear and unambiguous mandate.
May is far from being a Genuine Remain. She has been vying from Cameron's succession for ages, and thought that required for her to be "formally" in the same side of her boss. But she barely campaigned for Remain and is now campaigning in the leadership cotest with the commitment to implement Brexit.
I don't know of any Tory candidate that is running as a Genuine Remain, or would, if elected, try to step back from Brexit.....
.... Except perhaps Boris. Who seems really frightened about what Brexit means, and has enough credibility in the Leave side to say "maybe this is not what we should do"
It's a long shot, but ruthless Theresa May won't ever try to stop Brexit. She will see it implemented in full no different than the way Farage would do it.
I disagree with the last part. I don't see him doing things that would be seen as doing the Republican elites bidding that his base is opposed to, like any fudging of Medicare that could reduce benefits in any way. It would be tarnishing his brand.
The ACA is strange because his base hates ACA but loves most of its components. They will not go for Repeal and Return to 2007. It might get replaced by Trumpcare, that would superficially look similar, but without the nasty bits, like the mandate, and probably with some Federal money guarantee to make up for shortfalls.
Military posturing, you are totally right, but that's his ego. That's the scarier part
I'm not saying those are ALL their responsibilities. They should also be kind to puppies.
More seriously, as I said somewhere else in this thread, (legal) immigrants, such as Polish plumbers, should act and expect to be treated just as citizens, unless there are good reasons not to. If citizens have more obligations than paying taxes and obeying the las, well yes, immigrants have those too.
There might be reasons why Imigrants should be subject to further requirements, but we should evaluate on a case by case what those requirements are, and why should immigrants but not citizens the ones fulfilling them. I am happy to estipulate those cases might exist. Feel free to propose some examples and we can talk about those specifically.
And please don't hug a puppy today. Hugs scare dogs. It's a reflex. Don't do it even if you are a citizen
I agree with you almost completely. Trump has connected with the median Republican, and he does mean it most of the time. He won't dissemble Medicare or fight against SSM.
My concern is that he is doing this to further, not the preferred policies of the median Republican (which he will probably further, the good and the bad ones), but the interests of Donald Trump, both his financial interests AND his ego interests.
With respect to the financial interests, it will be Berlusconi again, fixing the problems of his companies. Which, though bad, is not the worse part.
The ego interests are the ones that scare me. He will not take lightly any perceived rebuff in the political scene. The damage he can create to the USA by fighting petty battles with the resources in his hands is tremendous.
I agree one hundred percent with the first part of your comment.
Now, the responsibilities of (legal, forpurposes of this discussion) immigrants towards you and towards the system are the same as those of your con-nationals. Obey the laws and pay the taxes? Are they doing that or not should be the extent of the query. If you want to ask something additional from them, you should provide a reason why.
I'm willing to estipulate that a good reason might exist, but I wouldn't ask for something just in case a reason for it may exist.
It's like SSM will destroy civilization but we can't really say why, but it totally will.
If a Bulgarian citizen has a Eurohealth card, then I would assume he has paid for benefits in Bulgaria. The fact that he uses his card in the UK for a quadruple bypass the day after jumping off the boat is kind of a dick move. But in principle UK citizens can do medical tourism in Bulgaria too. Perhaps the waiting time for critical, but not emergency, surgeries is shorter in Sofia than in Liverpool.
Now, a Polish plumber that has been in London several years has for sure paid into the system, perhaps less than a British plumber, but that's the nature of health insurance in the grand scheme. I pay fully my health insurance in the USA and most years I only do my (free) checkup. I have a colleague with a handicapped child that runs through his deductible by mid February. He will never pay enough into the system to make up what he is taking out. Is he like a Polish plumber? Should we stop treatment to his kid until he gets up to speed with paying into the system?
That's my concern. Once the Polish plumber sets shop in London he is playing by UK rules, and should be dealt with under UK rules. Would it be better if everybody had the same rules, costs, taxes and quality of service across Europe? Perhaps.
And if I were a Bulgarian looking where to go have a free quadruple bypass with my Eurohealth card the NHS would not be my first choice. Now, if I've been working as a plumber in London for a couple of years, it's a different situation.
But the President and his party, and the opposition party in Congress) responds to local USA politics and pressures. Perhaps a larger number of voters care more about Free Trade with Latin America (because of their Lat Am origin)? Perhaps a larger number of Wall Street political donors care more about Free Trade with China?
I honestly doubt that Free Trade with England will be very high in the radar of USA politics, because even to vote of a one page Trade Act that says "The UK gets exactly what the EU has at all times" will waste precious Congress time that many Trade actors would want devoted to other Agreements.
I understand you are there in the ground, so to speak, so I take your comment seriously, but from where do you get the conclusion that Polish plumbers in the UK do not pay UK taxes?
Are there medical tourists from Bulgaria coming for free quadruple bypass at the NHS and then leaving? Perhaps, but my understanding is that, absent emergency care, you have to register with a local GP and, more or less, be local (have a local address, etc, all of which makes you liable to taxes). If there are medical tourism, they shouldn't get bypasses, or Bulgaria, where they pay taxes, should reimburse them.
Full disclosure: I'm a USA citizen living in Houston, but I'm also a Spanish Citizen from Barcelona, with two elder British born and raised brothers (born in "bugger Bognor" Regis), now living in London, and I travel there several times a year
Far from me to try to sound aggressive or glib or anything negative. And let it be known that you, Will, continuously do what I say below no one does.
My problem is that when Palin, Cruz, Walker, Boehner, McConnell, Trump say or do stupid/semi racist/ semi bigoted things no one raises their voice and says loudly "Who is "us" keemosabe? You ain't speaking for me, dude, and that's a crazy thing to say"
99% of the time you get silence from the other Republicans, who, if pressed, will explain NOT that what keemosabe is wrong, but that you didn't understand what keemosabe meant, or that keemosabe didn't exactly say that, or that they don't really agree with keemosabe about that, or that keemosabe doesn't represent all the views of the party (but apparently no one represents the non-keemosabe views). The only thing they won't say is that, in their view, keemosabe indeed said a semi racist/semi bigoted thing, and shame on him.
Is not different than Dobson, Perkins and Lively saying batshit things in the name of Christianity with not a single voice raising up to complain, and then, when pushed, the Douthats and Drehers will argue that Dobson or Perkins or Lively do not speak for all Christians (but no one seems to speak up for those other Christians, either)
It Is not the fault of the listeners if they hear keemosabe's version on one side, nothing on the other, and they conclude that everybody supports, or at least is not bothered by, keemosabe.
I understand the political issues. You have to go to war with the base you have, not the base you'd rather have. But great politicians are also opinion makers, not just opinion followers.
In that vein, I've concluded Trump is a great politician, and he is making public opinion. No one said a great politician is a politician for the greater good.
Maastricht was put in referenda in most EU countries. In some it barely squeezed by. The U.K. Government knew it would never pass so they had it approved in Parliament (which, after all, IS the Sovereign, not the people)
I'm sure there is. I hope you pay every time you step on the sidewalk. Those things aren't free, you know?
["Those things are paid with my taxes", says Brandon Berg]
["Imigrants pay the same taxes. Have the same right as you to the goodies", he heard answered]
You can't do that in the EU with EU citizens under the freedom of movement treaties. EU citizens have the same rights as nationals -even if rights change from country to country.
You probably won't be able to do that even after Brexit if somehow the UK ends in a Norway/Switzerland kind of deal - remaining in the European Economic Zone.
Plus there is a matter of equal protection. EU citizens in the UK pay the same UK taxes as nationals. It's kind of rude to say they cannot get the benefits their taxes pay for. Should they be allowed in the roads at all? That too is a benefit
At the risk of going Goodwin again, 1933 is a great example of a people democratically taking charge of their destiny, and rejecting the chains of unelected enforcers of a multination Treaty.
There's plenty of people in the EU today that look fondly at that gloriously democratic day. Some are even in government. Please do google Fidesz and Viktor Orbán.
Like the fish don't see the water, most Leave voters aren't even aware of the free trade that surrounds them. It's the Polish plumbers that they object to.
The price of gold surging is a great indication that human beings are doing at least two stupid things, one of which is buying and hoarding a metal whose only useful application is in making connectors for high-end electronic components.
If at the very least it was the price of lithium surging..... But, look there, you, there's a shiny thing!
Don't forget that Dublin has become the centre (lets speak Dubliner) of Reverse Mergers. With their very favorable tax policies it makes sense to go to Dublin.
France is out of the running because they are set into a policy of taxing financial operations as much as possible. It will be Dublin or Frankfurt but I doubt people will want to be under the massive oversight of the Bundesbank
I agree with the second part of your statement. I think it's likely that the next government come October will voluntarily trigger a no confidence and call a snap election (a snap election is not possible unless a lot of Tories vote for it too) and let the new government deal with Article 50
I totally disagree with the first part. If the cost of playing chicken and threatening to leave is zero, then everybody will do it. Perhaps everybody should leave, but that's a different political decision that should be taken en toto, not by letting everyone play both sides: in and out, depending on the issue. I think the EU will not be accommodating, and they have already asked the UK to start the Article 50 process ASAP.
You really cannot keep the not in-not out status for too long. After all, you are not Romania. You are the purported finance capital of Europe. If you are not going to be in for the long run, the EU better find itself another finance capital.
I'm sure several bank executives are buying first class plane tickets to Dublin as we speak.
You could be right, but he became the Tory face of Brexit, and probably will be the next Prime Minister come October.
Between him, Teresa May (the most milquetoast Remain you can imagine - plus a War Criminal wanna be) and (the probably now politically dead) Cameron's Dauphin George Osborne, the Tories really don't have much more to chose from
US conservatives were against because the Scotish Nationilsm overlaps very closely with Scandinavian levels of welfare state. The big driver for independence was keep English Tories hands out of my NHS (free university education/housing subsidies/child support/you name it)
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Relationship Status: It’s Complicated”
The last (2012) referendum was intentionally muddled by being drafted as two questions: first, change, or remain with the current status? then (only for Change voters) , if change, to what: statehood, independence or something strange no one knew what it was? All this with the intention of trying to nudge a result favorable towards statehood.
The results were Change won, with 52%, and statehood was the preferred Change option, with 60%. At the time it was read as the first vote for statehood, but the structure guaranteed it would never be a mandate for anything.
"
Plus you really can't. The way is set up, you have to say I'm out (Article 50) before you find out what goods you can take with you.
Boris in his Telegraph op-Ed is basically lying again saying that he wants to (will) negotiate the Exit terms and then trigger Article 50.
There's no chance in hell the EU will allow that. And he knew it all the time
"
But it would be no different that the mandate David Cameron got in 2015. He got 36.9% of the vote (up from 36.1% in 2010) and 330 seats (up 24) Labour got 30.4% (up 1.4%) and 232 seats (down 26).
Under FPTP and Parliament Sovereignty Cameron could do anything he wanted with barely a third of the vote. And he called it a clear and unambiguous mandate.
"
May is far from being a Genuine Remain. She has been vying from Cameron's succession for ages, and thought that required for her to be "formally" in the same side of her boss. But she barely campaigned for Remain and is now campaigning in the leadership cotest with the commitment to implement Brexit.
I don't know of any Tory candidate that is running as a Genuine Remain, or would, if elected, try to step back from Brexit.....
.... Except perhaps Boris. Who seems really frightened about what Brexit means, and has enough credibility in the Leave side to say "maybe this is not what we should do"
It's a long shot, but ruthless Theresa May won't ever try to stop Brexit. She will see it implemented in full no different than the way Farage would do it.
On “Linky Friday #172: Boom”
I disagree with the last part. I don't see him doing things that would be seen as doing the Republican elites bidding that his base is opposed to, like any fudging of Medicare that could reduce benefits in any way. It would be tarnishing his brand.
The ACA is strange because his base hates ACA but loves most of its components. They will not go for Repeal and Return to 2007. It might get replaced by Trumpcare, that would superficially look similar, but without the nasty bits, like the mandate, and probably with some Federal money guarantee to make up for shortfalls.
Military posturing, you are totally right, but that's his ego. That's the scarier part
On “Talk to Me Like I’m Stupid: Brexit & American Conservatives Edition”
I'm not saying those are ALL their responsibilities. They should also be kind to puppies.
More seriously, as I said somewhere else in this thread, (legal) immigrants, such as Polish plumbers, should act and expect to be treated just as citizens, unless there are good reasons not to. If citizens have more obligations than paying taxes and obeying the las, well yes, immigrants have those too.
There might be reasons why Imigrants should be subject to further requirements, but we should evaluate on a case by case what those requirements are, and why should immigrants but not citizens the ones fulfilling them. I am happy to estipulate those cases might exist. Feel free to propose some examples and we can talk about those specifically.
And please don't hug a puppy today. Hugs scare dogs. It's a reflex. Don't do it even if you are a citizen
On “Linky Friday #172: Boom”
I agree with you almost completely. Trump has connected with the median Republican, and he does mean it most of the time. He won't dissemble Medicare or fight against SSM.
My concern is that he is doing this to further, not the preferred policies of the median Republican (which he will probably further, the good and the bad ones), but the interests of Donald Trump, both his financial interests AND his ego interests.
With respect to the financial interests, it will be Berlusconi again, fixing the problems of his companies. Which, though bad, is not the worse part.
The ego interests are the ones that scare me. He will not take lightly any perceived rebuff in the political scene. The damage he can create to the USA by fighting petty battles with the resources in his hands is tremendous.
On “Talk to Me Like I’m Stupid: Brexit & American Conservatives Edition”
I agree one hundred percent with the first part of your comment.
Now, the responsibilities of (legal, forpurposes of this discussion) immigrants towards you and towards the system are the same as those of your con-nationals. Obey the laws and pay the taxes? Are they doing that or not should be the extent of the query. If you want to ask something additional from them, you should provide a reason why.
I'm willing to estipulate that a good reason might exist, but I wouldn't ask for something just in case a reason for it may exist.
It's like SSM will destroy civilization but we can't really say why, but it totally will.
"
If a Bulgarian citizen has a Eurohealth card, then I would assume he has paid for benefits in Bulgaria. The fact that he uses his card in the UK for a quadruple bypass the day after jumping off the boat is kind of a dick move. But in principle UK citizens can do medical tourism in Bulgaria too. Perhaps the waiting time for critical, but not emergency, surgeries is shorter in Sofia than in Liverpool.
Now, a Polish plumber that has been in London several years has for sure paid into the system, perhaps less than a British plumber, but that's the nature of health insurance in the grand scheme. I pay fully my health insurance in the USA and most years I only do my (free) checkup. I have a colleague with a handicapped child that runs through his deductible by mid February. He will never pay enough into the system to make up what he is taking out. Is he like a Polish plumber? Should we stop treatment to his kid until he gets up to speed with paying into the system?
That's my concern. Once the Polish plumber sets shop in London he is playing by UK rules, and should be dealt with under UK rules. Would it be better if everybody had the same rules, costs, taxes and quality of service across Europe? Perhaps.
And if I were a Bulgarian looking where to go have a free quadruple bypass with my Eurohealth card the NHS would not be my first choice. Now, if I've been working as a plumber in London for a couple of years, it's a different situation.
"
Yes to one, yes to two, yes to three
But the President and his party, and the opposition party in Congress) responds to local USA politics and pressures. Perhaps a larger number of voters care more about Free Trade with Latin America (because of their Lat Am origin)? Perhaps a larger number of Wall Street political donors care more about Free Trade with China?
I honestly doubt that Free Trade with England will be very high in the radar of USA politics, because even to vote of a one page Trade Act that says "The UK gets exactly what the EU has at all times" will waste precious Congress time that many Trade actors would want devoted to other Agreements.
"
I understand you are there in the ground, so to speak, so I take your comment seriously, but from where do you get the conclusion that Polish plumbers in the UK do not pay UK taxes?
Are there medical tourists from Bulgaria coming for free quadruple bypass at the NHS and then leaving? Perhaps, but my understanding is that, absent emergency care, you have to register with a local GP and, more or less, be local (have a local address, etc, all of which makes you liable to taxes). If there are medical tourism, they shouldn't get bypasses, or Bulgaria, where they pay taxes, should reimburse them.
Full disclosure: I'm a USA citizen living in Houston, but I'm also a Spanish Citizen from Barcelona, with two elder British born and raised brothers (born in "bugger Bognor" Regis), now living in London, and I travel there several times a year
On “Linky Friday #172: Boom”
Far from me to try to sound aggressive or glib or anything negative. And let it be known that you, Will, continuously do what I say below no one does.
My problem is that when Palin, Cruz, Walker, Boehner, McConnell, Trump say or do stupid/semi racist/ semi bigoted things no one raises their voice and says loudly "Who is "us" keemosabe? You ain't speaking for me, dude, and that's a crazy thing to say"
99% of the time you get silence from the other Republicans, who, if pressed, will explain NOT that what keemosabe is wrong, but that you didn't understand what keemosabe meant, or that keemosabe didn't exactly say that, or that they don't really agree with keemosabe about that, or that keemosabe doesn't represent all the views of the party (but apparently no one represents the non-keemosabe views). The only thing they won't say is that, in their view, keemosabe indeed said a semi racist/semi bigoted thing, and shame on him.
Is not different than Dobson, Perkins and Lively saying batshit things in the name of Christianity with not a single voice raising up to complain, and then, when pushed, the Douthats and Drehers will argue that Dobson or Perkins or Lively do not speak for all Christians (but no one seems to speak up for those other Christians, either)
It Is not the fault of the listeners if they hear keemosabe's version on one side, nothing on the other, and they conclude that everybody supports, or at least is not bothered by, keemosabe.
I understand the political issues. You have to go to war with the base you have, not the base you'd rather have. But great politicians are also opinion makers, not just opinion followers.
In that vein, I've concluded Trump is a great politician, and he is making public opinion. No one said a great politician is a politician for the greater good.
On “Talk to Me Like I’m Stupid: Brexit & American Conservatives Edition”
Maastricht was put in referenda in most EU countries. In some it barely squeezed by. The U.K. Government knew it would never pass so they had it approved in Parliament (which, after all, IS the Sovereign, not the people)
"
In addition, Norway -and Switzerland- are subject (and beneficiaries) of the free European Labour movement.
So you end in the same position vis-a-vis Polish plumbers.
"
I'm sure there is. I hope you pay every time you step on the sidewalk. Those things aren't free, you know?
["Those things are paid with my taxes", says Brandon Berg]
["Imigrants pay the same taxes. Have the same right as you to the goodies", he heard answered]
"
You can't do that in the EU with EU citizens under the freedom of movement treaties. EU citizens have the same rights as nationals -even if rights change from country to country.
You probably won't be able to do that even after Brexit if somehow the UK ends in a Norway/Switzerland kind of deal - remaining in the European Economic Zone.
Plus there is a matter of equal protection. EU citizens in the UK pay the same UK taxes as nationals. It's kind of rude to say they cannot get the benefits their taxes pay for. Should they be allowed in the roads at all? That too is a benefit
"
You are right but I don't recall anyone saying that the appointment was illegitimate under the existing Constitution.
"
At the risk of going Goodwin again, 1933 is a great example of a people democratically taking charge of their destiny, and rejecting the chains of unelected enforcers of a multination Treaty.
There's plenty of people in the EU today that look fondly at that gloriously democratic day. Some are even in government. Please do google Fidesz and Viktor Orbán.
"
Like the fish don't see the water, most Leave voters aren't even aware of the free trade that surrounds them. It's the Polish plumbers that they object to.
"
The price of gold surging is a great indication that human beings are doing at least two stupid things, one of which is buying and hoarding a metal whose only useful application is in making connectors for high-end electronic components.
If at the very least it was the price of lithium surging..... But, look there, you, there's a shiny thing!
"
have you visited Appomattox?
It is a monument to the way people engaged in the business of a most perfect union solved their differences about splitting up
"
Don't forget that Dublin has become the centre (lets speak Dubliner) of Reverse Mergers. With their very favorable tax policies it makes sense to go to Dublin.
France is out of the running because they are set into a policy of taxing financial operations as much as possible. It will be Dublin or Frankfurt but I doubt people will want to be under the massive oversight of the Bundesbank
"
I agree with the second part of your statement. I think it's likely that the next government come October will voluntarily trigger a no confidence and call a snap election (a snap election is not possible unless a lot of Tories vote for it too) and let the new government deal with Article 50
I totally disagree with the first part. If the cost of playing chicken and threatening to leave is zero, then everybody will do it. Perhaps everybody should leave, but that's a different political decision that should be taken en toto, not by letting everyone play both sides: in and out, depending on the issue. I think the EU will not be accommodating, and they have already asked the UK to start the Article 50 process ASAP.
You really cannot keep the not in-not out status for too long. After all, you are not Romania. You are the purported finance capital of Europe. If you are not going to be in for the long run, the EU better find itself another finance capital.
I'm sure several bank executives are buying first class plane tickets to Dublin as we speak.
"
You could be right, but he became the Tory face of Brexit, and probably will be the next Prime Minister come October.
Between him, Teresa May (the most milquetoast Remain you can imagine - plus a War Criminal wanna be) and (the probably now politically dead) Cameron's Dauphin George Osborne, the Tories really don't have much more to chose from
"
US conservatives were against because the Scotish Nationilsm overlaps very closely with Scandinavian levels of welfare state. The big driver for independence was keep English Tories hands out of my NHS (free university education/housing subsidies/child support/you name it)
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.