Some Kreliminology but today's prisoner swap news might indicate that Putin thinks Trump is unlikely to win in November: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/world/russia-prisoner-swap-us
In general polls were sticky for a while and remain sticky but I think there is real momentum towards Harris and it will only continue but for a while the polls will remain in the margin of error.
Former advisor to Donald Trump Sebastian Gorka on Vice President Harris: “She's a disaster whose only qualifications was having a vagina and the right skin color. She's a DEI hire. She's a woman! She's colored!"
My theory is that Trump and his team are still totally off guard with Harris and trying to find what will work against her. They also don't know how to respond to mockery.
Watch Trump tighten the interviewer's water because he did not like the questions. He is a childish bully: https://x.com/remy2cents/status/1818724810589192686?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1818724810589192686%7Ctwgr%5E5f17842642a33816e049cc758631e34f2ad1b98f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14342720https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D143427t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F072Ftrump-imploding-on-live-tvt_e%3DTrump20imploding20on20live20TVt_d%3DTrump20imploding20on20live20TV20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DTrump20imploding20on20live20TVs_o%3Ddescversion%3D4cca83b0da0691f931ef86061fb7db43
And the day before he managed to insult most Jewish Americans by calling us really crappy: https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/30/politics/video/trumps-obsession-with-bad-jews
“She was Indian all the way, and then all of a sudden, she made a turn, and she went, she became a Black person,”
This comment is worse than anyone can imagine even by Trump standards. The interview was apparently so bad that even Fox News couldn't whitewash it (sorry, not sorry).
I largely agree. 2024 is not 2020 or 2016 and Harris has been subject to the same decades-long level of hate that HRC suffered from. You are also correct that Trump is and has always been massively unpopular and even the cult can get bored of his schtick now (even though he still basically controls the GOP in ways no Democratic President ever controlled his party).
I'm a lot more confident than I am glum these days and while I still worry about Trump winning in 2024, I don't have the same dread and anxiety I had in 2016 and 2020's elections (I did have it for the first part of this year though).
Apparently voters don't associate Harris with inflation like they associate Biden with inflation. I think associating a President with inflation is dumb but whatever.
Harris has had her A game on for the past two weeks. I don't know if it can continue like this forever but things are going much better in her favor, Trump is panicking, and the zoom calls are political brilliance. Plus Vance is weird and I enjoy the pointing out that the right-wingers are deeply weird.
When I am super optimistic, I imagine her getting a 2008 style victory. When I am less optimistic, I imagine a repeat of 2000 or 2016
Inset Upton Sinclair quote here about how it is hard to get a man to understand something if his (or her) paycheck depends on him (or her) not understanding it.
Punditry is a weird profession in that we essentially have a few dozen or so people who are paid good money to give their opinions on TV or print or radio. But they know straying from conventional wisdom/herd too far is not a thing to do and many were journalists before and infected with the shortcomings of that profession like BSDI and the View from Nowhere. Plus they have their own sense of self-importance.
The men's Olympic skateboarders are dudes in their early to mid 20s. The women's Olympic skateboarders are barely teenage girls.
Also it is interesting that the sport is dominated by Japan seemingly. Japan won the gold in men and women's and the bronze in women's. Americans won silver and bronze in men's skateboarding and none in women's.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/29/2024”
Let's look at what Biden, who is probably dead, did today: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/world/russia-prisoner-swap-us
The Kremlinology here is that Putin perhaps is doubting Trump's victory in November.
On “The Race Is On, And It’s Getting Weird”
Harris is up plus 1 in Georgia and only slightly trailing in PA and AZ. She is soaring in Michigan.
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Some Kreliminology but today's prisoner swap news might indicate that Putin thinks Trump is unlikely to win in November: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/world/russia-prisoner-swap-us
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In general polls were sticky for a while and remain sticky but I think there is real momentum towards Harris and it will only continue but for a while the polls will remain in the margin of error.
On “Donald Trump and The National Association of Black Journalists: Watch For Yourself”
Sadly, you might be right.
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Trump says Lincoln never took a bullet: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09909102d75696fb0d0d4e518e308420339797bbe79d6b258a798400d0598510.jpg
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Former advisor to Donald Trump Sebastian Gorka on Vice President Harris: “She's a disaster whose only qualifications was having a vagina and the right skin color. She's a DEI hire. She's a woman! She's colored!"
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1. Obama's team is a lot smarter than Trump's team;
2. In some fairness, I don't think it was unreasonable to assume Biden would just stubborn it out until the convention.
3. See # 1
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My theory is that Trump and his team are still totally off guard with Harris and trying to find what will work against her. They also don't know how to respond to mockery.
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They appear to be really going for it: https://bsky.app/profile/convolutedname.bsky.social/post/3kymcatyhck2o
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Make it okay to say the n-word again.
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Watch Trump tighten the interviewer's water because he did not like the questions. He is a childish bully: https://x.com/remy2cents/status/1818724810589192686?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1818724810589192686%7Ctwgr%5E5f17842642a33816e049cc758631e34f2ad1b98f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14342720https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D143427t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F072Ftrump-imploding-on-live-tvt_e%3DTrump20imploding20on20live20TVt_d%3DTrump20imploding20on20live20TV20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DTrump20imploding20on20live20TVs_o%3Ddescversion%3D4cca83b0da0691f931ef86061fb7db43
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And the day before he managed to insult most Jewish Americans by calling us really crappy: https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/30/politics/video/trumps-obsession-with-bad-jews
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He is probably five clicks at most from using the n-word in a hot mic
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“She was Indian all the way, and then all of a sudden, she made a turn, and she went, she became a Black person,”
This comment is worse than anyone can imagine even by Trump standards. The interview was apparently so bad that even Fox News couldn't whitewash it (sorry, not sorry).
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/29/2024”
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/31/us/harris-trump-election
Trump can't help himself and is questioning Harris' background and ancestry in front of a crowd of Black Journalists.
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Silver has gone fully anti-Democratic.
On “The Problem of Political Commentary”
I largely agree. 2024 is not 2020 or 2016 and Harris has been subject to the same decades-long level of hate that HRC suffered from. You are also correct that Trump is and has always been massively unpopular and even the cult can get bored of his schtick now (even though he still basically controls the GOP in ways no Democratic President ever controlled his party).
I'm a lot more confident than I am glum these days and while I still worry about Trump winning in 2024, I don't have the same dread and anxiety I had in 2016 and 2020's elections (I did have it for the first part of this year though).
Apparently voters don't associate Harris with inflation like they associate Biden with inflation. I think associating a President with inflation is dumb but whatever.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/29/2024”
Hamas' political leader was assassinated in Iran: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/31/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-iran
On “The Problem of Political Commentary”
Harris has had her A game on for the past two weeks. I don't know if it can continue like this forever but things are going much better in her favor, Trump is panicking, and the zoom calls are political brilliance. Plus Vance is weird and I enjoy the pointing out that the right-wingers are deeply weird.
When I am super optimistic, I imagine her getting a 2008 style victory. When I am less optimistic, I imagine a repeat of 2000 or 2016
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/29/2024”
Interestingly, this idea might not work out for them because it assumes becoming a parent turns someone Republican and that clearly isn't true
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https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/883b524e812eb2c02622bbd8c818898e4a80d70993bd50e47155f84d63e869d0.jpg
Weirdos stepping on their rakes
On “The Problem of Political Commentary”
They know what their Republican paymasters want
"
Inset Upton Sinclair quote here about how it is hard to get a man to understand something if his (or her) paycheck depends on him (or her) not understanding it.
Punditry is a weird profession in that we essentially have a few dozen or so people who are paid good money to give their opinions on TV or print or radio. But they know straying from conventional wisdom/herd too far is not a thing to do and many were journalists before and infected with the shortcomings of that profession like BSDI and the View from Nowhere. Plus they have their own sense of self-importance.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/29/2024”
Olympic observations:
The men's Olympic skateboarders are dudes in their early to mid 20s. The women's Olympic skateboarders are barely teenage girls.
Also it is interesting that the sport is dominated by Japan seemingly. Japan won the gold in men and women's and the bronze in women's. Americans won silver and bronze in men's skateboarding and none in women's.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.