2. I think the GOP are much better at flooding the zone with sh@t from bad pollsters and the aggregators like 538 and Silver are not as good at discounting the sh@t as they say they are.
2a. Not all the flooders get labeled as partisan Republican. Trafalgar Group does (currently has +3 for Trump in PA which seems risible) but other groups like TIPP Insights and Atlas Intel and RMG Research do not but it takes approximately 2 minutes or less of Googling to find their elephant undies. TIPP Insight is filled with MAGA style clickbait on their website. Atlas Intel is connected a right-libertarian think tank that has been around since 1946. RMG Research is Rammussen's new gig. Patriot Polling is two college aged Republicans I don't know why these groups do not get discounted more.
3. Marist College (6 on 538's pollster rankings) had a poll with Harris up 5 out on October 16th. I have not seen this mentioned by the Times, 538, or Silver.
4. Early voting is going well for the Democrats where it needs to go well. This could change or it could you know, actually be something but if something is good for the Democrats, the rule is that it must be discounted or denied seemingly: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
What is the phrase? Every accusation is a confession. Trump is obviously increasingly losing it cognitively. But MAGA thinks it is Biden that is the mushy brained one.
Voters don't like Stop the Steal talk: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-voters-repelled-election-denial-overturning-roe-drawn-economic-pr-rcna175791
“That speaks to the importance of the economy and the cost of living especially at this time, and people being open to potential solutions to drive down the cost of living,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, which conducted the survey with Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm.
One economic proposal — “tariffs as high as 20% on goods from all countries” — was not as popular, with 44% saying they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports that policy, and 35% saying they are more likely to support that candidate.
While economic policies could move voters toward a candidate, the survey also finds that election denialism could turn them off.
A majority of voters surveyed — 52% — say they are less likely to support a candidate who says Trump won the 2020 presidential election, making it the least popular position tested in the survey.
Voters across swing groups, including suburban women, independents, moderates and seniors, say they are less likely to support a candidate who denies the election results. The position only has a positive effect on Trump’s voter base, including self-described MAGA Republicans and conservatives."
Trump is had a normal today praising Arnold Palmer's dick size: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/852fff9321ba896ee1d348e00a2af4b2d085f3e727067a9e2a1ff5de9a8f60d9.png
Also a lot of recent polling except the Bullfinch Group and ActVote (which conducts its polls via app) is from right-biased outfits like RMG Research and TIPP (who used to be associated with American Greatness)
True but I don't think 2016 is predictive either. We have had four years of Trump and Democrats are more energized against him and so are a lot of women generally because of Dobbs. Democrats can't treat Trump like a blank slate and neither can the media. Plus his rhetoric is getting more violent.
For the most part, the only polling I have seen over the past few days has been from obvious Republican outfits like TIPP/RMG Research and they are working hard to flood the zone and show the race tightening. Or from generally unreliable pollsters like ActVote (which is apparently done via app) Early voting seems to be going well momentum wise for Democrats and I don't think we are going to become complacent.
Musk goes Full Protocols of the Elders of Zion: https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1847035061738377317?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1847035061738377317%7Ctwgr%5E24d47c825b542775a5cb9ae46782c5790eb743b2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com%2F2024%2F10%2Fjust-spitballing-here-but-it-may-be-bad-that-the-worlds-richest-mans-brain-has-liquified-under-the-influence-of-drugs-and-right-wing-media-and-hes-using-his-money-to-try-to-get-a-fascist-elect
“I detest him as a person,” said Natalie Wriker, 37, who works at the Lutheran church in town, “but he’s the lesser of two evils.” She said she believes that politicians are “easily bought” but that Mr. Trump has less motivation to do things for money because of his wealth.
Wanted to clear something up. I have donated to both the Harris and Trump campaigns. Roughly equal amounts. It allowed my wife and me to meet both candidates and make a more informed decision. I have come to the conclusion that both candidates have their hearts in the right place, and while they would set different paths for America, I am optimistic that either path will be a positive step. I am endorsing both candidates.-Tim Draper, very important venture capitalist
Trump is not doing that great with white women: https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1846295845983211603?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1846295845983211603%7Ctwgr%5Ef539e3647f4b40f86a3fc986c39468ebbbf7520a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14539920https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145399t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F102Fwhite-grievance-is-the-trump-cardt_e%3DWhite20grievance20is20the20Trump20cardt_d%3DWhite20grievance20is20the20Trump20card20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DWhite20grievance20is20the20Trump20cards_o%3Ddescversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897
"At a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, tonight, a slurring, low-energy Donald Trump told the audience: “If you don’t win, win, win, we’ve all had a good time, but it’s not gonna matter, right? Sadly. Because what we’ve done is amazing. Three nominations in a row…. If we don’t win it’s like, ah, it was all, it was all for not very much. We can’t, uh, we can’t let that happen.”
The media is reporting that Trump is apparently going to work a fry machine at McDoanld's on Saturday. Proving once again that we are not a serious people time three trillion. How are his advisers going to make sure he doesn't hurt himself?
Re my optimism: 2016 and 2020 did not feature a Trump cancelling friendly interviews and questions and swaying to music for 39 minutes. Could there be more voters for Trump to bring out of the woodwork? Perhaps but I somehow doubt it.
Yes, the view is that pollsters generally are trying to correct for their mistakes of 2016 and 2020. The question is whether this produces a more accurate poll or whether they are overcorrecting:
Well the NRA just elected a President who was involved in a particularly gruesome torture of a cat when an undergrad at the University of Michigan so there is part of your answer.
More seriously, I think Trump is one of a kind and has a kind of secret sauce no one else can emulate but I am not sure where they go because plenty of people dislike Trump and perhaps the GOP but have been conditioned to see all Democrats as the second coming of Trotsky while also being out of touch cultural elitists who like icky things like modern dance and mid-century modern furniture
Plus Trump appears to be increasingly losing it (39 minute music swaying session), press are finally taking him down on stuff and challenging his surrogates more on his wilder rants, and he appears to be out of cash and so does the rest of the GOP. NBC just reported that the Arizona GOP cancelled its election night party to divert money to campaigns.
Perhaps it is wrong of me but I feel giddier and elated and optimistic in ways I did not feel in 2016, 2020, or 2022.
"When I say “we’re a long way” from the Blue Wall, I refer not only to the fact that it crumbled in 2016, but how eight years later we’re looking at an election where Democrats are scrambling to win states that were supposed to be behind the wall. Harris has a good chance with the purplification of Georgia and Arizona, but of the five most swing states she needs to win three and she’s struggling to do so against an aging, disgraced former president.
Gun to head, I currently predict that she will win Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, and will lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I mention this not to put chips on the table, but because this produces a 274-264 win."
I am going to dispute all of this. I predict she will win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and win one or more of the sunbelt states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. This will provide her a win.
Could I be wrong? Yes. But I have laid out my evidence numerous times and have not heard anyone rebut it with substantive evidence of their own:
1. Democrats are voting sending in more early votes than they did in 2020 and 2022;
2. NBC has an article from September 24 which gives Harris a commanding lead of those who intend to vote early. They also have results which are positive for Democrats in PA, MI, WI so far. Democrats seem to be doing better than expected in Georgia and NC but maybe currently not as well in Nevada and Arizona but this can change.
3. The right-friendly partisan push polls being released can seemingly only get results that show Trump slightly up or breaking even and no one has even attempted to explain to me why I shouldn't think the actual results are much worse for the Trump/GOP based on the fact that these pollsters only release information when they think it is good for Republicans and they have been critiqued in the past for shoddy polling such as in 2020 and 2022.
4. No one has explained to me why I should think it is accurate for polls to have Josh Stein up by 10-15, Gallego up by 6-13, and Rosen up by around 8, Casey between 4-8, and have those states also be for Trump narrowly or significantly. Gallego himself apparently stated if he wins by 7, Harris wins Arizona and this strikes me as accurate and I think should also hold for Nevada and North Carolina.
5. Black women are apparently coming out in droves for Harris in Michigan per raw story creating an even larger gender gap than previously forcasted,
I think journalists and amateur political bloggers get too into "ohh what if new paradigm?" rather than questioning "Is Trump really going to win 28 percent of the black vote? Really?"
1. Democrats dislike him just as much as they dislike Trump;
2. Independents dislike him;
3. He lacks the special sauce that Trump has that makes Republicans love him so much.
Vance can take a perfectly normal idea like grandparents especially grandmothers are a big help to new parents and turn it into something off-putting by calling grandmothers post menupasual women
It absolutely is because of stuff like this even when they weigh it. Another partisan outfit, Patriot Polling (founded and run by two High School Republicans who are now college Republicans) has Baldwin up by 1 in Wisconsin and Trump up 1 nationally.
What do you think the real numbers are? How bad is it if partisan hacks can only get him breaking even or up a point or two?
1. Trump and Vance need to go fundraising in NYC on October 27th instead of campaigning: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/10/ultra-maga-experience
2. Trafalgar Group has Trump up by 2 in Arizona and they are such partisan buffons I assume this means he is actually not doing great in Arizona.
On “Campaign Scratchpad: Known Unknowns”
Trump is almost certainly going to win Ohio. The other two are being morons
"
1. Trump could win.
2. I think the GOP are much better at flooding the zone with sh@t from bad pollsters and the aggregators like 538 and Silver are not as good at discounting the sh@t as they say they are.
2a. Not all the flooders get labeled as partisan Republican. Trafalgar Group does (currently has +3 for Trump in PA which seems risible) but other groups like TIPP Insights and Atlas Intel and RMG Research do not but it takes approximately 2 minutes or less of Googling to find their elephant undies. TIPP Insight is filled with MAGA style clickbait on their website. Atlas Intel is connected a right-libertarian think tank that has been around since 1946. RMG Research is Rammussen's new gig. Patriot Polling is two college aged Republicans I don't know why these groups do not get discounted more.
3. Marist College (6 on 538's pollster rankings) had a poll with Harris up 5 out on October 16th. I have not seen this mentioned by the Times, 538, or Silver.
4. Early voting is going well for the Democrats where it needs to go well. This could change or it could you know, actually be something but if something is good for the Democrats, the rule is that it must be discounted or denied seemingly: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/14/2024”
Who amongst us is shocked that Trump's stint at McDonald's was a total fake? https://jabberwocking.com/trump-fakes-a-stint-at-mcdonalds-today/
"
What is the phrase? Every accusation is a confession. Trump is obviously increasingly losing it cognitively. But MAGA thinks it is Biden that is the mushy brained one.
On “Lone Star Rising”
Voters don't like Stop the Steal talk: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-voters-repelled-election-denial-overturning-roe-drawn-economic-pr-rcna175791
“That speaks to the importance of the economy and the cost of living especially at this time, and people being open to potential solutions to drive down the cost of living,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, which conducted the survey with Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm.
One economic proposal — “tariffs as high as 20% on goods from all countries” — was not as popular, with 44% saying they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports that policy, and 35% saying they are more likely to support that candidate.
While economic policies could move voters toward a candidate, the survey also finds that election denialism could turn them off.
A majority of voters surveyed — 52% — say they are less likely to support a candidate who says Trump won the 2020 presidential election, making it the least popular position tested in the survey.
Voters across swing groups, including suburban women, independents, moderates and seniors, say they are less likely to support a candidate who denies the election results. The position only has a positive effect on Trump’s voter base, including self-described MAGA Republicans and conservatives."
"
Oh please. His gold watch for 100K might as well say BRIBE ME in big neon letters
"
Trump is had a normal today praising Arnold Palmer's dick size: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/852fff9321ba896ee1d348e00a2af4b2d085f3e727067a9e2a1ff5de9a8f60d9.png
Also a lot of recent polling except the Bullfinch Group and ActVote (which conducts its polls via app) is from right-biased outfits like RMG Research and TIPP (who used to be associated with American Greatness)
"
True but I don't think 2016 is predictive either. We have had four years of Trump and Democrats are more energized against him and so are a lot of women generally because of Dobbs. Democrats can't treat Trump like a blank slate and neither can the media. Plus his rhetoric is getting more violent.
For the most part, the only polling I have seen over the past few days has been from obvious Republican outfits like TIPP/RMG Research and they are working hard to flood the zone and show the race tightening. Or from generally unreliable pollsters like ActVote (which is apparently done via app) Early voting seems to be going well momentum wise for Democrats and I don't think we are going to become complacent.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/14/2024”
Musk goes Full Protocols of the Elders of Zion: https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1847035061738377317?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1847035061738377317%7Ctwgr%5E24d47c825b542775a5cb9ae46782c5790eb743b2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com%2F2024%2F10%2Fjust-spitballing-here-but-it-may-be-bad-that-the-worlds-richest-mans-brain-has-liquified-under-the-influence-of-drugs-and-right-wing-media-and-hes-using-his-money-to-try-to-get-a-fascist-elect
On “Lone Star Rising”
“I detest him as a person,” said Natalie Wriker, 37, who works at the Lutheran church in town, “but he’s the lesser of two evils.” She said she believes that politicians are “easily bought” but that Mr. Trump has less motivation to do things for money because of his wealth.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/opinion/trump-harris-bucks-county-pennsylvania.html
Stupid is incurable in some people. He is the most easily bought President in history probably.
"
Wanted to clear something up. I have donated to both the Harris and Trump campaigns. Roughly equal amounts. It allowed my wife and me to meet both candidates and make a more informed decision. I have come to the conclusion that both candidates have their hearts in the right place, and while they would set different paths for America, I am optimistic that either path will be a positive step. I am endorsing both candidates.-Tim Draper, very important venture capitalist
"
Trump is not doing that great with white women: https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1846295845983211603?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1846295845983211603%7Ctwgr%5Ef539e3647f4b40f86a3fc986c39468ebbbf7520a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14539920https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145399t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F102Fwhite-grievance-is-the-trump-cardt_e%3DWhite20grievance20is20the20Trump20cardt_d%3DWhite20grievance20is20the20Trump20card20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DWhite20grievance20is20the20Trump20cards_o%3Ddescversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897
"
"At a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, tonight, a slurring, low-energy Donald Trump told the audience: “If you don’t win, win, win, we’ve all had a good time, but it’s not gonna matter, right? Sadly. Because what we’ve done is amazing. Three nominations in a row…. If we don’t win it’s like, ah, it was all, it was all for not very much. We can’t, uh, we can’t let that happen.”
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/october-15-2024
"
This might just help turn Texas blue: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d82e49d897aeb8b27bc07fe5dd11f0a016553dfe2008642391f9cef466baa5c6.png
Q: Why won't you answer whether you support exceptions for rape and incest?
Cruz: *nervous laughter* why do you keep asking me that?
"
The media is reporting that Trump is apparently going to work a fry machine at McDoanld's on Saturday. Proving once again that we are not a serious people time three trillion. How are his advisers going to make sure he doesn't hurt himself?
Re my optimism: 2016 and 2020 did not feature a Trump cancelling friendly interviews and questions and swaying to music for 39 minutes. Could there be more voters for Trump to bring out of the woodwork? Perhaps but I somehow doubt it.
"
Yes, the view is that pollsters generally are trying to correct for their mistakes of 2016 and 2020. The question is whether this produces a more accurate poll or whether they are overcorrecting:
"
And Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 despite these errors. One time he received an EV victory and the other time he did not.
"
And I personally think they are overcorrecting this year because of 2016 and 2020
"
Well the NRA just elected a President who was involved in a particularly gruesome torture of a cat when an undergrad at the University of Michigan so there is part of your answer.
More seriously, I think Trump is one of a kind and has a kind of secret sauce no one else can emulate but I am not sure where they go because plenty of people dislike Trump and perhaps the GOP but have been conditioned to see all Democrats as the second coming of Trotsky while also being out of touch cultural elitists who like icky things like modern dance and mid-century modern furniture
"
Plus Trump appears to be increasingly losing it (39 minute music swaying session), press are finally taking him down on stuff and challenging his surrogates more on his wilder rants, and he appears to be out of cash and so does the rest of the GOP. NBC just reported that the Arizona GOP cancelled its election night party to divert money to campaigns.
Perhaps it is wrong of me but I feel giddier and elated and optimistic in ways I did not feel in 2016, 2020, or 2022.
"
"When I say “we’re a long way” from the Blue Wall, I refer not only to the fact that it crumbled in 2016, but how eight years later we’re looking at an election where Democrats are scrambling to win states that were supposed to be behind the wall. Harris has a good chance with the purplification of Georgia and Arizona, but of the five most swing states she needs to win three and she’s struggling to do so against an aging, disgraced former president.
Gun to head, I currently predict that she will win Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, and will lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I mention this not to put chips on the table, but because this produces a 274-264 win."
I am going to dispute all of this. I predict she will win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and win one or more of the sunbelt states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. This will provide her a win.
Could I be wrong? Yes. But I have laid out my evidence numerous times and have not heard anyone rebut it with substantive evidence of their own:
1. Democrats are voting sending in more early votes than they did in 2020 and 2022;
2. NBC has an article from September 24 which gives Harris a commanding lead of those who intend to vote early. They also have results which are positive for Democrats in PA, MI, WI so far. Democrats seem to be doing better than expected in Georgia and NC but maybe currently not as well in Nevada and Arizona but this can change.
3. The right-friendly partisan push polls being released can seemingly only get results that show Trump slightly up or breaking even and no one has even attempted to explain to me why I shouldn't think the actual results are much worse for the Trump/GOP based on the fact that these pollsters only release information when they think it is good for Republicans and they have been critiqued in the past for shoddy polling such as in 2020 and 2022.
4. No one has explained to me why I should think it is accurate for polls to have Josh Stein up by 10-15, Gallego up by 6-13, and Rosen up by around 8, Casey between 4-8, and have those states also be for Trump narrowly or significantly. Gallego himself apparently stated if he wins by 7, Harris wins Arizona and this strikes me as accurate and I think should also hold for Nevada and North Carolina.
5. Black women are apparently coming out in droves for Harris in Michigan per raw story creating an even larger gender gap than previously forcasted,
I think journalists and amateur political bloggers get too into "ohh what if new paradigm?" rather than questioning "Is Trump really going to win 28 percent of the black vote? Really?"
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/14/2024”
I disagree. Vance is wildly disliked.
1. Democrats dislike him just as much as they dislike Trump;
2. Independents dislike him;
3. He lacks the special sauce that Trump has that makes Republicans love him so much.
Vance can take a perfectly normal idea like grandparents especially grandmothers are a big help to new parents and turn it into something off-putting by calling grandmothers post menupasual women
"
It absolutely is because of stuff like this even when they weigh it. Another partisan outfit, Patriot Polling (founded and run by two High School Republicans who are now college Republicans) has Baldwin up by 1 in Wisconsin and Trump up 1 nationally.
What do you think the real numbers are? How bad is it if partisan hacks can only get him breaking even or up a point or two?
"
1. Trump and Vance need to go fundraising in NYC on October 27th instead of campaigning: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/10/ultra-maga-experience
2. Trafalgar Group has Trump up by 2 in Arizona and they are such partisan buffons I assume this means he is actually not doing great in Arizona.
"
Yeah but Trump said obvious howlers. Harris is going to be the one who pushes back on lies from Murdoch and Co.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.