I would guess that it is basically psy ops to get more funding, motivate the base, demotivate the opposition, and also possibly try and capture the media narrative/work the refs.
The media and aggregate sites will point out some but not all of these are partisan places. Trafalgar is mocked as partisan. Patriot Polling is not even though five seconds of googling reveals that it is run by two college Republicans. Atlas Intel is not marked as partisan even though it can be connected back to a right-libertarian think tank that started in 1945 after Labour had its historic landslide in the U.K. To be fair, Data for Progress is also not marked partisan even though it basically is but for Democrats.
IMO the media would probably be better off ignoring the partisans but they have decided on a wonky weigh them less approach because the media demands its horserace
Well, we have a fighting chance to do so. Osborne also has a fighting chance to win Nebraska's Senate seat and it looks like NE-2 is going to switch R to D. NE-2 is probably a Harris pickup
In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters in the United States, 52% of decided voters would support the current vice president or have already voted for her, while 47% would back the former president.
“Harris holds a 15-point lead over Trump among female decided voters (57% to 42%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Trump is ahead of Harris among male voters (52% to 47%).”
On a regional basis, Harris holds sizeable leads over Trump in the West (58% to 40%) and the Northeast (55% to 43%). Trump is first in the South (51% to 48%) while the two candidates are virtually tied in the Midwest (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).
Only 5% of decided voters say they could change their mind and support a different candidate in the presidential election. The proportion of undecided likely voters with four weeks to go in the campaign is 4%.
More than half of white decided voters (54%) would cast a ballot for Trump or have already done so. Harris leads among decided voters who are African American (71%) or Hispanic / Latino (61%).
Harris is the top choice for American decided voters who get their news from MSNBC / CNBC (81%), CNN (67%) or a local network (53%), while Trump is ahead among those who watch Fox News (68%).
Harris holds a five-point lead over Trump among decided voters who have a cat in their household (52% to 47%). The race is closer among decided voters who have a dog at home (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).
Decided voters in the United States cite the presidential candidate’s ideas and policies (43%) as the main reason behind their choice, followed by the candidate’s political party (24%), desire for stability (14%), desire for change (also 14%) and disgust with other candidates (8%).
These findings are very similar among decided voters who are backing either Harris or Trump, with one exception. While 10% of Harris voters say their main motivator is “disgust with other candidates”, the proportion is lower (5%) among Trump voters.
American likely voters were asked which of the two main presidential candidates is best suited to deal with 13 different issues.
Harris holds the upper hand over Trump on five issues: health care (52% to 36%), education (52% to 36%), the environment (52% to 35%), race relations (50% to 35%) and government accountability (47% to 41%). Trump leads Harris on two issues: immigration (50% to 39%) and national defence (48% to 41%).
I think Harris probably wins and it is probably pretty apparent on Nov 5. I can still have moments of anxiety of Trump getting a 2016 victory again. Democrats probably retake the House and do fairly well in the Senate. Tester is a almost likely a goner. Brown and Baldwin get reelected. Hogan is not a contender. Slotkin wins. There is a plausible but outside chance Allread wins. A less likely but not completely implausible chance Scott gets taken down.
You can see the same flooding of the zone with s*@t in Michigan at both the President and Senate level. Senate polls have had Slotkin, the Democratic candidate consistently up by +4 to +6. Trafalgar group declared the race EVEN. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/michigan/
Another poll taking by Mitchel Research at the same time had Slotkin up by 5. Mitchell Research was started by a Reagan-Bush guy and also has a partisan lean but not as obvious as Trafalgar or Patriot Polling and they try to be a bit more accurate. Trafalgar could be correct theoretically but it looks more like an outlier and outliers require extraordinary evidence.
So we might be at a point where individual polls are more reliable than the aggregates.
I wrote this yesterday but I think the polls are over weighing Republicans and we have already entered the Republican partisan "polling" outfits flooding the zone with S##T stage.
The most recent polling from Pennsylvania already comes from three Republican Partisan outfits. One of which is run by two college students. Patriot Polling and the Trafalgar Group were part of the outfits that predicted 2022 very poorly.
Atlas Intel is run by a right-libertarian think tank called The Atlas Network. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
Optimistic hot takes: The Polls are overcorrecting for Trump and are much better for Harris than assumed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
The five most recent polls which have results favorable for Trump are from right-wing outfits even if not marked. Patriot Polling's name is its tell. And if you google its two employees (both college students), you find they are young Republicans.
"At the same time, it has never been easier or cheaper to conduct lesser-quality polls using internet questionnaires or automated phone services.
One newcomer to the industry that illustrated the low barrier to entry was Patriot Polling, incorporated in September in suburban Philadelphia by two high school juniors.
The pair — Lucca Ruggieri, 17, who identifies as a Republican, and Arhan Kaul, 16, who is more interested in data science than politics — met at a program for future leaders, joked about how terrible polling had been in recent elections and decided to take a stab at it themselves. At worst, they figured, they would bolster their college applications."
This is from a 2022 NY Times article on the red wave that wasn't.
AtlasIntel is connected to a right-libertatian think tank called The Atlas Network
I'm not on twitter and Elmo made it harder to search but if I am parsing her I spent too much time in grad school language correctly, she is writing "and we will sink Harris' chances in Michigan BWA HA HA HA"
It is a twitter word salad but she appears to be a real person as I just confirmed with a two second Google: https://ispu.org/scholars/sabreena-ghaffar-siddiqui/
Peters asked the judge to sentence her to probation while continuing to maintain her innocence. She called the accusations against her "vile." She complained about the victims and state officials asking for prison time, and said that she was a "child of God" and that God doesn't like people "messing with his children." She continued to maintain that the election was stolen and votes were "flipped" despite the fact that she presented no evidence. The judge finally cut her off and said he wasn't going to allow her to continue to present her conspiracy theories at a sentencing hearing.
At one point the judge got a little upset after Peters challenged him to read the "reports" that she submitted about fraud. He told Peters than he did read them. Peters seemed surprised and then remarked that she was glad he read them because that meant that he must agree with her. The judge scolded her not to claim that he agreed with her theories when he never said that.
Peters then said that she has to sleep on a special magnetic mattress because of a car accident so she should not be sentenced to prison because they don't have those mattresses in prison.
Trump wanted to withhold aide for California in 2018 because they did not vote for him until an aide (now endorsing Harris) showed him there were still lots of Republicans in California. If Trump wins in 2024, he won't be so convinced: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/helene-trump-politics-natural-disaster-00182419
I still have a feeling that Harris could get a 2012 style victory but you could be correct. That being said 2016 and 2020 were only "close" because of the horrible and counter-majoritarian electoral colleges. 2016 and 2020 with popular vote counts would be considered horrible defeats for Trump
As far as I can tell, Walz did better with voters. Vance did better with hobbyist fretters and professional political writers who can't understand folksiness as an asset but do understand polish because they have friends who are lawyers.
PA voters on NBC give Walz the victory: https://x.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1841333207469343229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1841333207469343229%7Ctwgr%5Eb9ebe20e3e5a42a92c5bdfec6e86bc3f313c7d7b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14502020https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145020t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F102Fvance-refuses-to-say-trump-lost-the-2020-electiont_e%3DVance20refuses20to20say20Trump20lost20the20202020electiont_d%3DVance20refuses20to20say20Trump20lost20the20202020electiont_t%3DVance20refuses20to20say20Trump20lost20the20202020elections_o%3Ddefaultversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897
Walz won independents 58-42 according to a Politico snapshot: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/politico-snap-poll-division-debate-00182131?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=05a75012-1e11-4876-9ba5-f36b56d0d671&nlid=630318
"But Walz had a commanding advantage with independents, 58 percent of whom sided with the Minnesota governor while 42 percent gave Vance the edge.
Walz’s strongest ratings came from younger people, particularly those ages 25-34, those with college degrees, and Black and Latino respondents — all key components of the Democratic coalition that powered President Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in 2020."
CBS had a snapshot that has Walz' favorability increase from 52 percent to 60 percent after the debate.
But somehow people are still breaking down because Walz did not transform into Sub-Zero and finish off Vance in a brutal way.
Trumpism will not be felled with one swift slash but by a thousand cuts.
I think this is a bit of received wisdom. Carter was actually to the right of his Congress in many important ways. He was the miser, not Congress. It is his post-Presidential legacy which cemented him as "the last liberal." During his time, he was more of a proto-DLC technocrat.
I don't think going full Travis Bickle is a winning issue for him especially because this kind of violence goes both ways and it is just going to be innocent civilians hurt in the end.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
"
I would guess that it is basically psy ops to get more funding, motivate the base, demotivate the opposition, and also possibly try and capture the media narrative/work the refs.
The media and aggregate sites will point out some but not all of these are partisan places. Trafalgar is mocked as partisan. Patriot Polling is not even though five seconds of googling reveals that it is run by two college Republicans. Atlas Intel is not marked as partisan even though it can be connected back to a right-libertarian think tank that started in 1945 after Labour had its historic landslide in the U.K. To be fair, Data for Progress is also not marked partisan even though it basically is but for Democrats.
IMO the media would probably be better off ignoring the partisans but they have decided on a wonky weigh them less approach because the media demands its horserace
"
Well, we have a fighting chance to do so. Osborne also has a fighting chance to win Nebraska's Senate seat and it looks like NE-2 is going to switch R to D. NE-2 is probably a Harris pickup
"
In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters in the United States, 52% of decided voters would support the current vice president or have already voted for her, while 47% would back the former president.
“Harris holds a 15-point lead over Trump among female decided voters (57% to 42%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Trump is ahead of Harris among male voters (52% to 47%).”
On a regional basis, Harris holds sizeable leads over Trump in the West (58% to 40%) and the Northeast (55% to 43%). Trump is first in the South (51% to 48%) while the two candidates are virtually tied in the Midwest (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).
Only 5% of decided voters say they could change their mind and support a different candidate in the presidential election. The proportion of undecided likely voters with four weeks to go in the campaign is 4%.
More than half of white decided voters (54%) would cast a ballot for Trump or have already done so. Harris leads among decided voters who are African American (71%) or Hispanic / Latino (61%).
Harris is the top choice for American decided voters who get their news from MSNBC / CNBC (81%), CNN (67%) or a local network (53%), while Trump is ahead among those who watch Fox News (68%).
Harris holds a five-point lead over Trump among decided voters who have a cat in their household (52% to 47%). The race is closer among decided voters who have a dog at home (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).
Decided voters in the United States cite the presidential candidate’s ideas and policies (43%) as the main reason behind their choice, followed by the candidate’s political party (24%), desire for stability (14%), desire for change (also 14%) and disgust with other candidates (8%).
These findings are very similar among decided voters who are backing either Harris or Trump, with one exception. While 10% of Harris voters say their main motivator is “disgust with other candidates”, the proportion is lower (5%) among Trump voters.
American likely voters were asked which of the two main presidential candidates is best suited to deal with 13 different issues.
Harris holds the upper hand over Trump on five issues: health care (52% to 36%), education (52% to 36%), the environment (52% to 35%), race relations (50% to 35%) and government accountability (47% to 41%). Trump leads Harris on two issues: immigration (50% to 39%) and national defence (48% to 41%).
https://researchco.ca/2024/10/07/us-nationwide-oct2024/
Don't take anything for granted but this does not seem like good news for Trump
"
Harry Enten believes that Harris has a +18 lead among white college grads. Clinton was +5 in 2016, Biden was +9 in 2020:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f9a71f76923dcbee702992ea2d06494ec1d10ed10eb8e60642cfc059cfa97bf.png
"
I think Harris probably wins and it is probably pretty apparent on Nov 5. I can still have moments of anxiety of Trump getting a 2016 victory again. Democrats probably retake the House and do fairly well in the Senate. Tester is a almost likely a goner. Brown and Baldwin get reelected. Hogan is not a contender. Slotkin wins. There is a plausible but outside chance Allread wins. A less likely but not completely implausible chance Scott gets taken down.
"
Harris is up +2 in North Carolina and Josh Stein is up a whopping +13.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/
If this continues, it is not a good trend for Republicans.
"
You can see the same flooding of the zone with s*@t in Michigan at both the President and Senate level. Senate polls have had Slotkin, the Democratic candidate consistently up by +4 to +6. Trafalgar group declared the race EVEN. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/michigan/
Another poll taking by Mitchel Research at the same time had Slotkin up by 5. Mitchell Research was started by a Reagan-Bush guy and also has a partisan lean but not as obvious as Trafalgar or Patriot Polling and they try to be a bit more accurate. Trafalgar could be correct theoretically but it looks more like an outlier and outliers require extraordinary evidence.
So we might be at a point where individual polls are more reliable than the aggregates.
"
I wrote this yesterday but I think the polls are over weighing Republicans and we have already entered the Republican partisan "polling" outfits flooding the zone with S##T stage.
The most recent polling from Pennsylvania already comes from three Republican Partisan outfits. One of which is run by two college students. Patriot Polling and the Trafalgar Group were part of the outfits that predicted 2022 very poorly.
Atlas Intel is run by a right-libertarian think tank called The Atlas Network. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
On “Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August”
Optimistic hot takes: The Polls are overcorrecting for Trump and are much better for Harris than assumed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
The five most recent polls which have results favorable for Trump are from right-wing outfits even if not marked. Patriot Polling's name is its tell. And if you google its two employees (both college students), you find they are young Republicans.
"At the same time, it has never been easier or cheaper to conduct lesser-quality polls using internet questionnaires or automated phone services.
One newcomer to the industry that illustrated the low barrier to entry was Patriot Polling, incorporated in September in suburban Philadelphia by two high school juniors.
The pair — Lucca Ruggieri, 17, who identifies as a Republican, and Arhan Kaul, 16, who is more interested in data science than politics — met at a program for future leaders, joked about how terrible polling had been in recent elections and decided to take a stab at it themselves. At worst, they figured, they would bolster their college applications."
This is from a 2022 NY Times article on the red wave that wasn't.
AtlasIntel is connected to a right-libertatian think tank called The Atlas Network
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
I'm not on twitter and Elmo made it harder to search but if I am parsing her I spent too much time in grad school language correctly, she is writing "and we will sink Harris' chances in Michigan BWA HA HA HA"
"
It is a twitter word salad but she appears to be a real person as I just confirmed with a two second Google: https://ispu.org/scholars/sabreena-ghaffar-siddiqui/
"
I am not going for this downplay.
"
Peters asked the judge to sentence her to probation while continuing to maintain her innocence. She called the accusations against her "vile." She complained about the victims and state officials asking for prison time, and said that she was a "child of God" and that God doesn't like people "messing with his children." She continued to maintain that the election was stolen and votes were "flipped" despite the fact that she presented no evidence. The judge finally cut her off and said he wasn't going to allow her to continue to present her conspiracy theories at a sentencing hearing.
At one point the judge got a little upset after Peters challenged him to read the "reports" that she submitted about fraud. He told Peters than he did read them. Peters seemed surprised and then remarked that she was glad he read them because that meant that he must agree with her. The judge scolded her not to claim that he agreed with her theories when he never said that.
Peters then said that she has to sleep on a special magnetic mattress because of a car accident so she should not be sentenced to prison because they don't have those mattresses in prison.
https://meidasnews.com/news/maga-election-clerk-sentenced-to-prison
"
Trump wanted to withhold aide for California in 2018 because they did not vote for him until an aide (now endorsing Harris) showed him there were still lots of Republicans in California. If Trump wins in 2024, he won't be so convinced: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/helene-trump-politics-natural-disaster-00182419
On “Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August”
I still have a feeling that Harris could get a 2012 style victory but you could be correct. That being said 2016 and 2020 were only "close" because of the horrible and counter-majoritarian electoral colleges. 2016 and 2020 with popular vote counts would be considered horrible defeats for Trump
"
I think JB is doing a thing. He has another one with the identical title but replaces Trump with Harris.
On “Vice Presidential Candidate Debate: Sen JD Vance vs Gov Tim Walz”
Isn't Toasmasters about getting that perfect brown on your bread?
"
As far as I can tell, Walz did better with voters. Vance did better with hobbyist fretters and professional political writers who can't understand folksiness as an asset but do understand polish because they have friends who are lawyers.
"
PA voters on NBC give Walz the victory: https://x.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1841333207469343229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1841333207469343229%7Ctwgr%5Eb9ebe20e3e5a42a92c5bdfec6e86bc3f313c7d7b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14502020https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145020t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F102Fvance-refuses-to-say-trump-lost-the-2020-electiont_e%3DVance20refuses20to20say20Trump20lost20the20202020electiont_d%3DVance20refuses20to20say20Trump20lost20the20202020electiont_t%3DVance20refuses20to20say20Trump20lost20the20202020elections_o%3Ddefaultversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897
"
New favorability polling: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Vance is negative 1, Walz is + 15. CBS polled with 42 percent stating Vance won, 41 percent stating Walz one, and 17 percent calling it a tie.
"
Walz won independents 58-42 according to a Politico snapshot: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/politico-snap-poll-division-debate-00182131?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=05a75012-1e11-4876-9ba5-f36b56d0d671&nlid=630318
"But Walz had a commanding advantage with independents, 58 percent of whom sided with the Minnesota governor while 42 percent gave Vance the edge.
Walz’s strongest ratings came from younger people, particularly those ages 25-34, those with college degrees, and Black and Latino respondents — all key components of the Democratic coalition that powered President Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in 2020."
CBS had a snapshot that has Walz' favorability increase from 52 percent to 60 percent after the debate.
But somehow people are still breaking down because Walz did not transform into Sub-Zero and finish off Vance in a brutal way.
Trumpism will not be felled with one swift slash but by a thousand cuts.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
I think this is a bit of received wisdom. Carter was actually to the right of his Congress in many important ways. He was the miser, not Congress. It is his post-Presidential legacy which cemented him as "the last liberal." During his time, he was more of a proto-DLC technocrat.
"
Yes but the NY Times did write about it.
"
I don't think going full Travis Bickle is a winning issue for him especially because this kind of violence goes both ways and it is just going to be innocent civilians hurt in the end.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.