Trump has apparently threatened to use the military against the Left and this is another example of people taking him neither seriously or literally: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/10/i-dont-believe-thats-what-hes-saying
I think her internals are irrelevant here. But this is a kind of goes into the Lion Den move that is smart. Can you consider Trump going on MSNBC to be interviewed by Chris Hayes? He won't go anywhere he will be challenged.
More hopium: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/half-voters-plan-cast-ballots-early-huge-partisan-split-rcna172253
"Fifty-one percent of voters say they'll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those voters.
By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.
"Either the margin has to close among [those] voting early, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be bigger than this to win," said Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
The massive political difference of early and Election Day voters is the latest evidence of a dramatic and enduring shift in the Trump years.
In the final NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls of the 2012 and 2016 cycles, majorities said they planned to vote on Election Day, not early."
I also have hard times with the polling that shows Trump crushing Harris in Arizona but shows Gallego crushing Lake. Gallego himself stated Harris wins Arizona if he wins by +7. North Carolina is similar to me. Stein currently polls at +10 to +15. I suppose it is possible a lot of people vote Trump and leave the governor slot blank but I think if Stein wins by such a huge margin, Harris likely wins NC as well.
"In the past couple of months, I’ve written about how much of the election—whether the preferences of the so-called undecided voters, the polls, or the post-Convention agenda of Harris—is mostly unknowable. On November 5th, when the election needle at the Times finally comes to rest, we will manufacture a bunch of reasons why Trump or Harris won, or, more likely, why one of them lost, and those narratives will either disappear within a couple of days or calcify into the prevailing political wisdom. If, for example, Harris loses Pennsylvania, you can imagine a conclusion: She should have talked more about the border instead of just reiterating the same line about the bipartisan bill over and over and over again. If Trump loses the election, the postmortems might focus on his inability to launch what should have been a laser-focussed attack on the Harris campaign’s inability to lead the country in a time of international and domestic crises, her oftentimes wandering answers to direct questions, and what, up until this past week, sure seemed like a reticence to sit in front of a camera and answer difficult questions. This should have been a layup for Trump against a weak candidate. Or, perhaps, they will simply conclude that the country has finally and definitively turned away from Trump’s would-be authoritarianism.
But, sadly for us pundits, there isn’t a reliable way to explain the chaos of thin margins in an election involving roughly two-thirds of eligible American voters and a bizarre mechanism like the Electoral College. The commentariat seems stuck talking about the same things over and over—Why doesn’t she do more interviews? Why can’t Trump cut down on the inflammatory language and the bizarre asides?—while natural disasters keep happening at home and the bombs keep dropping abroad.
If this was just about pundits and our predictions and prescriptions, the stakes would be relatively low. But I sense that the electorate also has been wallowing in this epistemic muck since the Democratic National Convention. The coin-flip nature of the election has frozen everyone from taking too hard of a stand on anything, really. The talk about how this is the most important election in our lifetimes is now delivered, for the most part, without much conviction. In prior elections, this would be the time when there would be blanket ads about getting out the vote, for example, but, outside of Taylor Swift’s endorsement on Instagram, there hasn’t really been the same fervor around even something that’s as seemingly anodyne as reminding people to vote. The reports of enthusiastic, overflowing crowds for Harris rallies feel like a distant memory. The coconut memes have receded.
This stasis, as unsatisfying as it might be, is not all Harris’s fault. She seems to be running a campaign hell-bent on converting Republican voters, which, again, seems like a reasonable enough strategy. When asked by Stephen Colbert how she might differ from Biden, Harris pointed out that she was a different person and that, more important, she was not Trump, which was a perfect encapsulation of her campaign. She is not Biden or Trump, and maybe that’s enough, even if she doesn’t really explain how her policy ambitions or even temperament might lead to change.
We have seemingly reached an end point in polarization, where any new developments short of swapping out a candidate wholesale will be met with indifference in the polls. The public understands, at least subconsciously, that something must matter to voters, but only really gets evidence that most things—say, Trump’s convictions in court, his litany of bigoted outbursts and lies, or who wins a debate—do not. How does a concerned citizen participate in such seemingly arbitrary and unknowable politics when everything has been winnowed down to the results of one election? How often do they just sit back and wait for the coin to flip? "
In this regard, the Times/Sienna polling states Harris is maintaining her lead in Pennsylvania but also stating that Trump has a strong lead in Arizona, one that looks more like McCain and Romney's comfortable leads over Obama in that state compared to the narrow results of 2016 and 2020. Nate Cohn admits that the Times result in Arizona is an outlier that he can't fully explain but according to their results, Harris is doing much worse with white voters including white college grads in Arizona compared to the rest of the nation. This is even as Gallego maintains a comfortable 7 point plus lead over Lake.
And the way pollsters keep writing about the election changes. 538 has had Harris winning 55 times out of 100 and calling it a toss up. Now they write she has a 53 out of 100 probability of winning but are more upbeat because trends are in her direction.
As far as I can tell no. I understand why he would speak to the Detroit Economic Forum (another event that went badly) but LeeEsq might have the best reason below.
I am not a super fan of Nate Silver but this strikes me as generally correct. Many polls from now until the election might as well be indistinguishable from a random number generator picking a number fro -4 to +4.
This is ingenious. PAC to place ads before porn warning guys about Project 2025 wanting to ban porn: https://slate.com/life/2024/10/donald-trump-kamala-harris-election-project-2025-ad.html
Trump's team is now releasing polls showing them ahead in swing states. Usually by + 1 but +3 in Nevada and + 5 in Georgia. Generally, I think it is bad when campaigns do this and I have to think that Nevada and Georgia are worse internally because they have higher numbers.
TIPP/American Greatness is also releasing questionable polls showing Trump ahead: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/
I think if there is a situation where no one is a clear victor in the electoral college and/or it goes to Congress somehow, all bets/wheels are off. I can't imagine Democrats merely accepting the result this time like they did for Bush v. Gore and even if Trump somehow gets back into the White House with minimal disruption (but via the Courts and Congress), Blue States are going to extra incentivized to disregard him as being illegitimate especially if there is a huge popular vote victory for Harris. Trump lost the popular vote by millions in 2016 and 2020. What happens if he loses by 10-15 million but there is no clear EC victory is uncharted territory especially for someone who is not popular.
That being said, Trump is releasing push polls which show him ahead in the swing states and I don't think that is a great sign for his campaign.
Another weird thing about the polls is that if you bore down to crosstabs, they have some weird results.
I will believe that Michigan is very competitive, even, or even that Trump has a slight lead.
I will not believe that Trump wins the youth vote in Michigan (or anywhere except the reddest states) because that defies all evidence we have from 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Pro-Palestinian Group Uncommitted comes out for Harris, noticing correctly that Harris would be far worse: https://archive.is/20241008230205/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/palestine-uncommitted-trump.html
A Republican outfit has Harris up by +1 in Arizona and Galego is up by +13. I am going to assume this means Harris is actually doing better: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
In completely unsurprising news, Trump's crypto scheme might not be on the level: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/donald-trump-crypto-2024-campaign.html
NC is allowing western counties hurt by Helene to modify their voting procedures if done with a bipartisan majority of the local voting boards. FEMA is stretched to the limits but Harris just received more positive polling there
If you think the polling in PA is too close to call, so is the polling in AZ, GA, and NC. AZ and NC have races which might have an upballot positive for Harris. Gallego polls 6-10 points above Lake consistently. Josh Stein polls 8-13 points above Robinson consistently. I don't think there will be that many ticket splitters and it seems more likely than not that Harris' support would be undercounted.
1. I am doing postcards to swing states for the election. These are apparently good/decent at giving a gentle nudge to irregular but likely on your side voters to get out and vote. I received Ohio which probably will not go Democratic unless there is a real blue wave but could reelect Brown to the Senate. I went to purchase my postcard stamps today and was told they were sold out and it was all postcards to voters apparently. As far as I know, this is an exclusively Democratic or heavily Democratic project.
2. Harris is doing a media blitz of places where she is more likely to connect with people who need a push to the polls. Today she did a podcast called Call Her Daddy this is apparently the 2nd biggest podcast on Spotify and is a sex-positive one aimed at women in their 20s or 30s.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/14/2024”
Trump has apparently threatened to use the military against the Left and this is another example of people taking him neither seriously or literally: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/10/i-dont-believe-thats-what-hes-saying
"
I think her internals are irrelevant here. But this is a kind of goes into the Lion Den move that is smart. Can you consider Trump going on MSNBC to be interviewed by Chris Hayes? He won't go anywhere he will be challenged.
"
Harris agrees to interview on Fox News: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/business/media/fox-news-kamala-harris-interview.html
"
More hopium: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/half-voters-plan-cast-ballots-early-huge-partisan-split-rcna172253
"Fifty-one percent of voters say they'll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those voters.
By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.
"Either the margin has to close among [those] voting early, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be bigger than this to win," said Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
The massive political difference of early and Election Day voters is the latest evidence of a dramatic and enduring shift in the Trump years.
In the final NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls of the 2012 and 2016 cycles, majorities said they planned to vote on Election Day, not early."
I also have hard times with the polling that shows Trump crushing Harris in Arizona but shows Gallego crushing Lake. Gallego himself stated Harris wins Arizona if he wins by +7. North Carolina is similar to me. Stein currently polls at +10 to +15. I suppose it is possible a lot of people vote Trump and leave the governor slot blank but I think if Stein wins by such a huge margin, Harris likely wins NC as well.
"
Someone help me, I'm going to post hopium, early/mail in voting seems to be going quite well for Democrats in key states:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
Jay Caspian Kang has an essay in the New Yorker asking "Has the Presidential Election Become a Game of Random Chance?"
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/has-the-presidential-election-become-a-game-of-random-chance
"In the past couple of months, I’ve written about how much of the election—whether the preferences of the so-called undecided voters, the polls, or the post-Convention agenda of Harris—is mostly unknowable. On November 5th, when the election needle at the Times finally comes to rest, we will manufacture a bunch of reasons why Trump or Harris won, or, more likely, why one of them lost, and those narratives will either disappear within a couple of days or calcify into the prevailing political wisdom. If, for example, Harris loses Pennsylvania, you can imagine a conclusion: She should have talked more about the border instead of just reiterating the same line about the bipartisan bill over and over and over again. If Trump loses the election, the postmortems might focus on his inability to launch what should have been a laser-focussed attack on the Harris campaign’s inability to lead the country in a time of international and domestic crises, her oftentimes wandering answers to direct questions, and what, up until this past week, sure seemed like a reticence to sit in front of a camera and answer difficult questions. This should have been a layup for Trump against a weak candidate. Or, perhaps, they will simply conclude that the country has finally and definitively turned away from Trump’s would-be authoritarianism.
But, sadly for us pundits, there isn’t a reliable way to explain the chaos of thin margins in an election involving roughly two-thirds of eligible American voters and a bizarre mechanism like the Electoral College. The commentariat seems stuck talking about the same things over and over—Why doesn’t she do more interviews? Why can’t Trump cut down on the inflammatory language and the bizarre asides?—while natural disasters keep happening at home and the bombs keep dropping abroad.
If this was just about pundits and our predictions and prescriptions, the stakes would be relatively low. But I sense that the electorate also has been wallowing in this epistemic muck since the Democratic National Convention. The coin-flip nature of the election has frozen everyone from taking too hard of a stand on anything, really. The talk about how this is the most important election in our lifetimes is now delivered, for the most part, without much conviction. In prior elections, this would be the time when there would be blanket ads about getting out the vote, for example, but, outside of Taylor Swift’s endorsement on Instagram, there hasn’t really been the same fervor around even something that’s as seemingly anodyne as reminding people to vote. The reports of enthusiastic, overflowing crowds for Harris rallies feel like a distant memory. The coconut memes have receded.
This stasis, as unsatisfying as it might be, is not all Harris’s fault. She seems to be running a campaign hell-bent on converting Republican voters, which, again, seems like a reasonable enough strategy. When asked by Stephen Colbert how she might differ from Biden, Harris pointed out that she was a different person and that, more important, she was not Trump, which was a perfect encapsulation of her campaign. She is not Biden or Trump, and maybe that’s enough, even if she doesn’t really explain how her policy ambitions or even temperament might lead to change.
We have seemingly reached an end point in polarization, where any new developments short of swapping out a candidate wholesale will be met with indifference in the polls. The public understands, at least subconsciously, that something must matter to voters, but only really gets evidence that most things—say, Trump’s convictions in court, his litany of bigoted outbursts and lies, or who wins a debate—do not. How does a concerned citizen participate in such seemingly arbitrary and unknowable politics when everything has been winnowed down to the results of one election? How often do they just sit back and wait for the coin to flip? "
In this regard, the Times/Sienna polling states Harris is maintaining her lead in Pennsylvania but also stating that Trump has a strong lead in Arizona, one that looks more like McCain and Romney's comfortable leads over Obama in that state compared to the narrow results of 2016 and 2020. Nate Cohn admits that the Times result in Arizona is an outlier that he can't fully explain but according to their results, Harris is doing much worse with white voters including white college grads in Arizona compared to the rest of the nation. This is even as Gallego maintains a comfortable 7 point plus lead over Lake.
And the way pollsters keep writing about the election changes. 538 has had Harris winning 55 times out of 100 and calling it a toss up. Now they write she has a 53 out of 100 probability of winning but are more upbeat because trends are in her direction.
"
As far as I can tell no. I understand why he would speak to the Detroit Economic Forum (another event that went badly) but LeeEsq might have the best reason below.
"
Trump is having another one: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/68789f7ebb9cc9c44c428adac12c26b3baaf54cbdecc0d0a4b4523854d515a4f.png
"
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1844783578497818837
I am not a super fan of Nate Silver but this strikes me as generally correct. Many polls from now until the election might as well be indistinguishable from a random number generator picking a number fro -4 to +4.
"
This is ingenious. PAC to place ads before porn warning guys about Project 2025 wanting to ban porn: https://slate.com/life/2024/10/donald-trump-kamala-harris-election-project-2025-ad.html
"
How to not help your cause, a continuing series: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/oct-7-pro-palestinian-protests-vandalism.html
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Trump's team is now releasing polls showing them ahead in swing states. Usually by + 1 but +3 in Nevada and + 5 in Georgia. Generally, I think it is bad when campaigns do this and I have to think that Nevada and Georgia are worse internally because they have higher numbers.
TIPP/American Greatness is also releasing questionable polls showing Trump ahead: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
Once again, the Noble Prize snubs Murakami.
On “Wargaming An Election Crisis”
I think if there is a situation where no one is a clear victor in the electoral college and/or it goes to Congress somehow, all bets/wheels are off. I can't imagine Democrats merely accepting the result this time like they did for Bush v. Gore and even if Trump somehow gets back into the White House with minimal disruption (but via the Courts and Congress), Blue States are going to extra incentivized to disregard him as being illegitimate especially if there is a huge popular vote victory for Harris. Trump lost the popular vote by millions in 2016 and 2020. What happens if he loses by 10-15 million but there is no clear EC victory is uncharted territory especially for someone who is not popular.
That being said, Trump is releasing push polls which show him ahead in the swing states and I don't think that is a great sign for his campaign.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Another weird thing about the polls is that if you bore down to crosstabs, they have some weird results.
I will believe that Michigan is very competitive, even, or even that Trump has a slight lead.
I will not believe that Trump wins the youth vote in Michigan (or anywhere except the reddest states) because that defies all evidence we have from 2016, 2020, and 2024.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/81dafd1083c73aa93d025cdd9610635f2b8bb79ffae5c53a3a2da09f3a8cb243.png
Elon or someone like him appears to be betting millions on Trump in Polymarket to manipulate the odds.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/81dafd1083c73aa93d025cdd9610635f2b8bb79ffae5c53a3a2da09f3a8cb243.png
Elon or someone like him might be manipulating Polymatket
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
Pro-Palestinian Group Uncommitted comes out for Harris, noticing correctly that Harris would be far worse: https://archive.is/20241008230205/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/palestine-uncommitted-trump.html
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
A Republican outfit has Harris up by +1 in Arizona and Galego is up by +13. I am going to assume this means Harris is actually doing better: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
"
Bait for our West Virginians: https://i0.wp.com/digbysblog.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GZSxskkWEAAT-7d.png?w=1808&quality=80&ssl=1
"
There is also Milton about to rip through Tampa and apparently DeSantis refused to take calls from Biden and/or Harris
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
In completely unsurprising news, Trump's crypto scheme might not be on the level: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/donald-trump-crypto-2024-campaign.html
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
NC is allowing western counties hurt by Helene to modify their voting procedures if done with a bipartisan majority of the local voting boards. FEMA is stretched to the limits but Harris just received more positive polling there
"
If you think the polling in PA is too close to call, so is the polling in AZ, GA, and NC. AZ and NC have races which might have an upballot positive for Harris. Gallego polls 6-10 points above Lake consistently. Josh Stein polls 8-13 points above Robinson consistently. I don't think there will be that many ticket splitters and it seems more likely than not that Harris' support would be undercounted.
"
Election related news/anecdata:
1. I am doing postcards to swing states for the election. These are apparently good/decent at giving a gentle nudge to irregular but likely on your side voters to get out and vote. I received Ohio which probably will not go Democratic unless there is a real blue wave but could reelect Brown to the Senate. I went to purchase my postcard stamps today and was told they were sold out and it was all postcards to voters apparently. As far as I know, this is an exclusively Democratic or heavily Democratic project.
2. Harris is doing a media blitz of places where she is more likely to connect with people who need a push to the polls. Today she did a podcast called Call Her Daddy this is apparently the 2nd biggest podcast on Spotify and is a sex-positive one aimed at women in their 20s or 30s.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.