Some of the "comic's" lines might have been a bit too far and got cut: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-shock-comic-was-set-to-call?utm_campaign=post&triedRedirect=true
There is a cartoon I see on the internet from time to time. The cartoon features an anthropomorphic Donkey with a clipboard talking to a young man with a cap featuring a hammer and sickle and an older woman with an NPR tote bag. The younger man says "I will never vote for you." The older woman says "I will probably vote for you."
The second panel is the Donkey getting feedback from the woman while the young guy screams "Hey, no fair."
I find it amazing how many people get the causation of politicians doing things exactly ass backwards. Politicians enact policies wanted by the people who vote for them. They ignore the preferences of people who do not vote for them but so many people in this country (maybe the world) find this relationship of causation so offensive that they refuse to believe it.
So Harris, if elected, will enact policies or try to enact policies, by the Black women and wineparents and others who voted for her and further lefties will just gnash their teeth about mom ignoring them.
I think having the pro-Trump endorsement is a massive mistake at this time (or at anytime) but especially after the Nuremberg rally yesterday, I don't think one can be made in good faith and it will mark OT poorly. There is no way to kid away what the world saw yesterday,
And anti-Trump is different than pro-Harris which is the only way to be really anti-Trump at this time.
CNN and MSNBC both ran the speech and in this case, I think it might be an exception to the rule because the Nuremderp Rally appears to be blowing up big against Trump and co. or has the potential to.
About Harris losing minority votes: The shift toward Harris among likely voters relies in part on consolidated support among Democratic base groups, notably Black people and liberals. While Harris has a 70-point advantage among all Black people, that widens to 83 points among Black likely voters, 90-7%. Ninety-six percent of liberal likely voters support Harris, vs. 91% of liberals overall. Additionally, she goes from 53% support among all suburban women to 59% among those likely to vote. Trump, by contrast, doesn't see significant bumps in support among likely voters.
Trump's Nuremberg Rally is going as expected but he might have managed to put Florida in play: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/27/us/harris-trump-election
Former OT Bouie argues we are looking at the wrong gender gap: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/opinion/gender-election-voting-men-women-young.html
"Most of the evidence for this comes from focus groups and polls. In an August Times/Siena poll, for example, men aged 18 to 29 favored Trump by 13 points while women in the same age range favored Kamala Harris by 38 points.
To explain this swing to the right among young men, most observers look to the larger cultural environment. They say that our institutions stress inclusion and women’s empowerment in a way that alienates young men. They say that men feel undervalued and that Democrats don’t respect traditional masculine values. They say that young men are looking for a strong economy that would help them support a family, and that these men believe Trump will make it happen.
I think this narrative is a bit overstated. There’s no doubt that many young men are more supportive of Trump than they are of Harris. But overall, according to the most recent Harvard Youth Poll, young men who “definitely plan to vote” back Harris over Trump — 55 percent to 38 percent. For evidence in favor of the view that young men favor Trump, look no further than a recent survey of young male voters from Blueprint, a Democratic polling firm: Most men ages 18 to 29 rank inflation, jobs and the economy as top issues and trust Trump to handle them over Harris. Still, most of men surveyed by Blueprint have a favorable view of Harris — more favorable, in fact, than that of men ages 30 to 49.
But to my eye, Trump’s inroads — however large or modest they might be — with young men are less striking than Harris’s enormous lead with young women. The gender gap among young voters is as large as it has ever been. According to the Harvard poll, 70 percent of likely voters among young women of color favor Harris, as against 15 percent for Trump. The former president leads among young men across the three most recent Times/Siena polls, but Harris maintains a similar 67-to-28 advantage among young women there as well. You can find similar spreads in every available poll of the national race. Women overwhelming favor Harris, and men largely favor Trump.
The gender gap among young women has not inspired the same level of analysis and deep focus as has the gender gap with young men. Even a close reader of election coverage may forget for a moment that this is the first presidential election since the Supreme Court’s decision on Dobbs more than two years ago. If there were ever an election in which to focus on the political behavior of young women, it’s this one.
I don’t make predictions anymore, so I won’t try to make a guess about what these gaps mean for the final outcome. But I will say that if Kamala Harris wins the White House, we may look back and say that we should have focused a little more on the women, young and otherwise, who most likely made the difference."
I think there is an argument that the polls are over correcting for 2016 and 2020 but undercounting for Dobbs.
Plus the polls now are largely flood the zone from partisan Republicans and it takes two seconds of googling to figure it out. The aggregators claim they can weigh these but I don’t think they are as good as resisting pay-ops as they say they are
Maybe or maybe not. Split Ticket has Harris at 53 percent and I don’t think the aggregators are as good as combating the flood the zone polls as they say they are.
Early voting seems to be going well for Trump in Nevada but well for Harris in PA, MI, and WI. All could still be game for either candidate along with GA, AZ, and NC, or even FL, IA if you want real hopium.
On October 25, 2012, Romney had nearly a point above Obama in the polls: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/daec10411d55ddebaf50c2003e12b1410c01afad632922ff59d406dbb95710c7.jpg
Okay, it looks like there were some Trumpian gate crashers, she handled it well, but you fell for right wing coverage, hook line and sinker: https://people.com/kamala-harris-jokes-at-hecklers-at-rally-you-meant-to-go-to-the-smaller-one-8730192
MY has a bold election prediction. https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1849794210695663735?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1849794210695663735%7Ctwgr%5E562ad3b76a679381a07277418fed8d59ea645aaf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14565420https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145654t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F102Fny-times-tries-to-sanewash-patrick-soon-shiongs-capitulation-to-trumpt_e%3DNY20Times20tries20to20sanewash20Patrick20Soon-ShiongE28099s20capitulation20to20Trumpt_d%3DNY20Times20tries20to20sanewash20Patrick20Soon-Shiong27s20capitulation20to20Trump20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DNY20Times20tries20to20sanewash20Patrick20Soon-ShiongE28099s20capitulation20to20Trumps_o%3Ddescversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897
I can't find a valid source on this. I see Trump claims Beyonce was booed and your conspiratorial mind is going at it too much again. A few boos is not a news story
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Ballot box arson in Vancouver, Washington: https://www.katu.com/news/local/vancouver-ballot-box-seen-smoking-same-morning-as-portland-ballot-box-arson
On “Group Activity: The Donald Trump Madison Square Garden Rally”
Some of the "comic's" lines might have been a bit too far and got cut: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-shock-comic-was-set-to-call?utm_campaign=post&triedRedirect=true
He wanted to call Harris a c**t"
On “What If Trump Wins?”
There is a cartoon I see on the internet from time to time. The cartoon features an anthropomorphic Donkey with a clipboard talking to a young man with a cap featuring a hammer and sickle and an older woman with an NPR tote bag. The younger man says "I will never vote for you." The older woman says "I will probably vote for you."
The second panel is the Donkey getting feedback from the woman while the young guy screams "Hey, no fair."
I find it amazing how many people get the causation of politicians doing things exactly ass backwards. Politicians enact policies wanted by the people who vote for them. They ignore the preferences of people who do not vote for them but so many people in this country (maybe the world) find this relationship of causation so offensive that they refuse to believe it.
So Harris, if elected, will enact policies or try to enact policies, by the Black women and wineparents and others who voted for her and further lefties will just gnash their teeth about mom ignoring them.
"
What is the Newsom wing of the party and how do you think it is different than the Harris wing of the party?
Newsom stood by Biden until he said he was not running and then immediately got behind Harris.
"
Red-Brown alliances are always so interesting and yet they never, ever workout.
"
I think having the pro-Trump endorsement is a massive mistake at this time (or at anytime) but especially after the Nuremberg rally yesterday, I don't think one can be made in good faith and it will mark OT poorly. There is no way to kid away what the world saw yesterday,
And anti-Trump is different than pro-Harris which is the only way to be really anti-Trump at this time.
"
That is like saying would you rather swallow Cyanide or Hemlock
"
There is a small but not completely outside chance Vance tries to 25th Amendment Trump at some point
On “Group Activity: The Donald Trump Madison Square Garden Rally”
CNN and MSNBC both ran the speech and in this case, I think it might be an exception to the rule because the Nuremderp Rally appears to be blowing up big against Trump and co. or has the potential to.
On “What If Trump Wins?”
Things will get very bad for a lot of people and we will see more versions of the cruelty is the point.
On “Group Activity: The Donald Trump Madison Square Garden Rally”
The headline is a bit dull. If media can use headlines to call it out for the gross hatefest it was, so can we.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/21/2024”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-regains-slight-lead-nationally-electoral-college-holds/story?id=115083875
About Harris losing minority votes: The shift toward Harris among likely voters relies in part on consolidated support among Democratic base groups, notably Black people and liberals. While Harris has a 70-point advantage among all Black people, that widens to 83 points among Black likely voters, 90-7%. Ninety-six percent of liberal likely voters support Harris, vs. 91% of liberals overall. Additionally, she goes from 53% support among all suburban women to 59% among those likely to vote. Trump, by contrast, doesn't see significant bumps in support among likely voters.
"
Keeping it Classy with Elon
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d892123f9f364925000706e6a76cef8a468ff8e740b77f5a17ce00ceeac2a05b.jpg
"
https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1850335352352870841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1850335352352870841%7Ctwgr%5E6b28a4b15159252bb85c9cf2e7b697d06859635b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14567420https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145674t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F102Fthrowing-out-the-first-racisms-2t_e%3DThrowing20out20the20first20racismst_d%3DThrowing20out20the20first20racisms20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DThrowing20out20the20first20racismss_o%3Ddescversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897
Not all rich white guys are afraid of Trump
"
Trump's Nuremberg Rally is going as expected but he might have managed to put Florida in play: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/27/us/harris-trump-election
"
Former OT Bouie argues we are looking at the wrong gender gap: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/opinion/gender-election-voting-men-women-young.html
"Most of the evidence for this comes from focus groups and polls. In an August Times/Siena poll, for example, men aged 18 to 29 favored Trump by 13 points while women in the same age range favored Kamala Harris by 38 points.
To explain this swing to the right among young men, most observers look to the larger cultural environment. They say that our institutions stress inclusion and women’s empowerment in a way that alienates young men. They say that men feel undervalued and that Democrats don’t respect traditional masculine values. They say that young men are looking for a strong economy that would help them support a family, and that these men believe Trump will make it happen.
I think this narrative is a bit overstated. There’s no doubt that many young men are more supportive of Trump than they are of Harris. But overall, according to the most recent Harvard Youth Poll, young men who “definitely plan to vote” back Harris over Trump — 55 percent to 38 percent. For evidence in favor of the view that young men favor Trump, look no further than a recent survey of young male voters from Blueprint, a Democratic polling firm: Most men ages 18 to 29 rank inflation, jobs and the economy as top issues and trust Trump to handle them over Harris. Still, most of men surveyed by Blueprint have a favorable view of Harris — more favorable, in fact, than that of men ages 30 to 49.
But to my eye, Trump’s inroads — however large or modest they might be — with young men are less striking than Harris’s enormous lead with young women. The gender gap among young voters is as large as it has ever been. According to the Harvard poll, 70 percent of likely voters among young women of color favor Harris, as against 15 percent for Trump. The former president leads among young men across the three most recent Times/Siena polls, but Harris maintains a similar 67-to-28 advantage among young women there as well. You can find similar spreads in every available poll of the national race. Women overwhelming favor Harris, and men largely favor Trump.
The gender gap among young women has not inspired the same level of analysis and deep focus as has the gender gap with young men. Even a close reader of election coverage may forget for a moment that this is the first presidential election since the Supreme Court’s decision on Dobbs more than two years ago. If there were ever an election in which to focus on the political behavior of young women, it’s this one.
I don’t make predictions anymore, so I won’t try to make a guess about what these gaps mean for the final outcome. But I will say that if Kamala Harris wins the White House, we may look back and say that we should have focused a little more on the women, young and otherwise, who most likely made the difference."
"
I think there is an argument that the polls are over correcting for 2016 and 2020 but undercounting for Dobbs.
Plus the polls now are largely flood the zone from partisan Republicans and it takes two seconds of googling to figure it out. The aggregators claim they can weigh these but I don’t think they are as good as resisting pay-ops as they say they are
"
Maybe or maybe not. Split Ticket has Harris at 53 percent and I don’t think the aggregators are as good as combating the flood the zone polls as they say they are.
Early voting seems to be going well for Trump in Nevada but well for Harris in PA, MI, and WI. All could still be game for either candidate along with GA, AZ, and NC, or even FL, IA if you want real hopium.
"
Trump might be having a wee bit of a cash crunch: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/victory-is-near
"
Okay, there also seemed to be a few pro-Palestinian protestors: https://www.chron.com/politics/article/kamala-harris-rally-protestors-19864301.php
But everywhere that is not a right-wing site is generally stating large crowds and cheers.
"
On October 25, 2012, Romney had nearly a point above Obama in the polls: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/daec10411d55ddebaf50c2003e12b1410c01afad632922ff59d406dbb95710c7.jpg
"
It doesn't seem to be going well: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a0dcec77b5975b59dc17cd550ce9ec4aa64588c7d846d7b9f919759d93937ac4.jpg
"
Okay, it looks like there were some Trumpian gate crashers, she handled it well, but you fell for right wing coverage, hook line and sinker: https://people.com/kamala-harris-jokes-at-hecklers-at-rally-you-meant-to-go-to-the-smaller-one-8730192
"
MY has a bold election prediction. https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1849794210695663735?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1849794210695663735%7Ctwgr%5E562ad3b76a679381a07277418fed8d59ea645aaf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14565420https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145654t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F102Fny-times-tries-to-sanewash-patrick-soon-shiongs-capitulation-to-trumpt_e%3DNY20Times20tries20to20sanewash20Patrick20Soon-ShiongE28099s20capitulation20to20Trumpt_d%3DNY20Times20tries20to20sanewash20Patrick20Soon-Shiong27s20capitulation20to20Trump20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DNY20Times20tries20to20sanewash20Patrick20Soon-ShiongE28099s20capitulation20to20Trumps_o%3Ddescversion%3Db040cc4fb9749f836fa39cae48953897
"
I can't find a valid source on this. I see Trump claims Beyonce was booed and your conspiratorial mind is going at it too much again. A few boos is not a news story
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.