Another variant: "we've already bought every ad available for the next week that reaches the NC markets, and the GOTV efforts say they can't use more than 20% of what we had allocated because they have already fully funded all the volunteers they have"
Harris invited Rogan to join him on campaign for an hour interview. Rogan thought an interview in his Austin studio was best. Rogan stated Harris did not reject or turn down his invite.
"Those who came before us-the patriots at Normandy and Selma,Seneca Falls and Stonewall, on farmlands and factory floors-they did not struggle, sacrifice, and lay down our lives only to see us submit to the will of another petty tyrant."-Kamala Harris.
Government of the people, for the people, and by the people, shall not perish from this earth.
Trump is a nothing and he cannot and should not receive another term in office. He is not a patriot. He is a Benedict Arnold.
"Our reporter visited Aryania, a natural resource extraction colony founded by Bavarians in 1946, to see what the locals there felt about Kamala Harris's candidacy. Overall, we encountered a high level of skepticism."
1. Did a bit of analysis of Georgia's early vote yesterday to see if there was measurable impact from the Trump campaign's weekend racism orgy against Latinos, and...seems like there may have been?! Here are some interesting numbers.
2. Statewide, the share of the Latino vote prior to Monday stood at 2.69% of the vote. Yesterday, Latinos accounted for at least 3.9% of the vote share, with over 8,200 votes cast. That's a 150% increase over the statewide average so far.
3. 3/x Of those 8,200: 41 percent did not cast a ballot in 2020. We don't know if that means they're infrequent voters, moved into the state, or first-time voters...but they didn't vote in 2020 there. That's a lot of new votes.
4. 4/4 Just goes to show that insulting tens of millions of people isn't the best approach to a campaign. And credit goes to http://georgiavotes.com for making these numbers easy to find and track.
I issued a strongly worded dissent on the Trump essay. I know he is going to get more votes than he should get. We don't need to promote his hate and the people that support it.
I am not sure she was ever drawing dead. I think a lot of pollsters have their thumbs slightly on the scale for Trump because they are afraid of repeating their mistakes from 2016 and 2020. I've heard/read that pollsters also refuse to look at or include new voters like the hundreds of thousands of young people who registered after Harris became the nominee.
Plus I think the aggregators are less good at isolating or discounting the flood the zone polls from Republican partisans than they think they are.
Trump is a narcissistic, sociopathic, corrupt, malignant, autocratic, racist, anti-Semitic, Islamophobic, Homophobic, Sexist, Transphobic, Xenophobic, fascist wanna be Putin with absolute contempt for democracy and the rule of law. There is no argument for him. There has be been an argument for him.
He tells us who he is and what he will do. Believe him and take it seriously and literally. He will only inflict misery.
OT should be ashamed to publish this after Sunday’s Nuremberg Rally which even the normally BSDI media denounced as filled with racist hate and lies. OT should be ashamed to publish this after Bezos obeyed in advance, refused to let his paper endorse Harris, and received 200k subscriptions.
I get that the editors here are very committed to the idea that the some of the most contentious issues can be debated in a civil manner and this is normally good but there are exceptions and arguments for Trump are one of those exceptions. He is a wanna be Putin propped up by a bunch of billionaires. All of the billionaires who support him are emotionally stunted and stuck at being middle school
edgelords.
"A joint appearance by Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley before Election Day appears increasingly unlikely, according to a senior Trump adviser who asked for anonymity to describe sensitive internal conversations.
The source said that getting the two former rivals' schedules to mesh has been difficult and that time is running short."
MSNBC is apparently discussing do not obey in advance and Matthew Dowd wants consultants and others to give WaPo reporters and others a Roman back: "the other thing besides canceling subscriptions to washington post and la times we can do as analysts/pundits/political pros is to not help reporters or columnists at either newspaper. don't cooperate with them or tell them until Bezos corrects things, don't call me."
An interesting look at how weighing voters changes things.
"There is no end of scrutiny of the 2024 election polls – who is ahead, who is behind, how much the polls will miss the election outcome, etc., etc. These questions have become even more pressing because the presidential race seems to be a toss-up. Every percentage point for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump matters.
But here’s the big problem that no one talks about very much: Simple and defensible decisions by pollsters can drastically change the reported margin between Harris and Trump. I’ll show that the margin can change by as much as eight points. Reasonable decisions produce a margin that ranges from Harris +0.9% to Harris +8%.
This reality highlights that we ask far too much of polls. Ultimately, it’s hard to know how much poll numbers reflect the decisions of voters – or the decisions of pollsters.
The 4 key questions for pollsters
After poll data are collected, pollsters must assess whether they need to adjust or “weight” the data to address the very real possibility that the people who took the poll differ from those who did not. This involves answering four questions:
1. Do respondents match the electorate demographically in terms of sex, age, education, race, etc.? (This was a problem in 2016.)
2. Do respondents match the electorate politically after the sample is adjusted by demographic factors? (This was the problem in 2020.)
3. Which respondents will vote?
4. Should the pollster trust the data?
To show how the answers to these questions can affect poll results, I use a national survey conducted from October 7 – 14, 2024. The sample included 1,924 self-reported registered voters drawn from an online, high-quality panel commonly used in academic and commercial work."
After dropping the respondents who said they were not sure who they would vote for (3.2%) and those with missing demographics, the unweighted data give Harris a 6 percentage point lead – 51.6 % to 45.5% – among the remaining 1,718 respondents.
"Given that a year ago and more recently than that she was thought to be an albatross I think she’s done quite well."
I think this is a lot of received wisdom. I have a theory and it is mine that we have not fully adjusted to negative partisanship yet and the full ramifications of what it means. Basically, I don't think anyone is getting to Bill Clinton or Obama levels of popularity anytime soon or even Bush II before he crashed.
That being said, Harris and Walz can get polling where their favorability is in the black. Something that has alluded Trump and Vance consistently
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
The Supreme Court puts its finger on the scale for Stop the Steal 2.0
https://bsky.app/profile/jamellebouie.net/post/3l7qdplzrne2s
On “What If Kamala Wins?”
We will be in a much better place if Harris wins. We will have elected some with decency and dignity and competence.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
https://x.com/joshtpm/status/1851463362804121803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851463362804121803%7Ctwgr%5E32fc229d62e33722621a2bb89bb0091a243120d9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com%2F2024%2F10%2Fthe-hack-is-back
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Another variant: "we've already bought every ad available for the next week that reaches the NC markets, and the GOTV efforts say they can't use more than 20% of what we had allocated because they have already fully funded all the volunteers they have"
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
Biden walked back his comment almost immediately. Meanwhile, Trump does this:
https://x.com/acyn/status/1851427800391225750?s=46
But oh yeah, Democrats have to be flawless and Trump gets to be lawless.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Not accurate.
Harris invited Rogan to join him on campaign for an hour interview. Rogan thought an interview in his Austin studio was best. Rogan stated Harris did not reject or turn down his invite.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
I don't think so but thanks for trolling to LGM's cowardly Trumpist. At least Koz can admit it.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Eh, maybe a tea leave, maybe not.
The NBC early voting has the turn out almost in even thirds pretty Democrats. Republicans, and Unaffiliated voters.
A poll from Elon University:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6c6081ba6d1d622623184a1235c873f1a4eccd2da4d7142b30416e6746539c3.png
Trump and Harris are allegedly tied at 46 percent but all the other Democrats are ahead.
Stein is up by a staggering 21 points;
The Democratics have +5 leads for AG, LG, and SoS and a +8 for Superintendent of Schools.
Called me unskewed polls if you will but I think Harris has a fair chance to win if the all the other Democrats are this far ahead.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
"Those who came before us-the patriots at Normandy and Selma,Seneca Falls and Stonewall, on farmlands and factory floors-they did not struggle, sacrifice, and lay down our lives only to see us submit to the will of another petty tyrant."-Kamala Harris.
Government of the people, for the people, and by the people, shall not perish from this earth.
Trump is a nothing and he cannot and should not receive another term in office. He is not a patriot. He is a Benedict Arnold.
"
"somebody had to do it"
This is actually not true.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Terri Garr and Paul Morrissey, two legends on cinema in very different ways have died.
"
The Apartheid origins of Thiel/Musk/Sachs: https://www.ft.com/content/cfbfa1e8-d8f8-42b9-b74c-dae6cc6185a0
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
"Our reporter visited Aryania, a natural resource extraction colony founded by Bavarians in 1946, to see what the locals there felt about Kamala Harris's candidacy. Overall, we encountered a high level of skepticism."
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
From Dante Atkins on Twitter:
1. Did a bit of analysis of Georgia's early vote yesterday to see if there was measurable impact from the Trump campaign's weekend racism orgy against Latinos, and...seems like there may have been?! Here are some interesting numbers.
2. Statewide, the share of the Latino vote prior to Monday stood at 2.69% of the vote. Yesterday, Latinos accounted for at least 3.9% of the vote share, with over 8,200 votes cast. That's a 150% increase over the statewide average so far.
3. 3/x Of those 8,200: 41 percent did not cast a ballot in 2020. We don't know if that means they're infrequent voters, moved into the state, or first-time voters...but they didn't vote in 2020 there. That's a lot of new votes.
4. 4/4 Just goes to show that insulting tens of millions of people isn't the best approach to a campaign. And credit goes to http://georgiavotes.com for making these numbers easy to find and track.
"
This is why we vote: https://www.tiktok.com/@gayheartgunsmoke/video/7429733010116758815?_r=1&_t=8qx0mwQxkrO
"
I issued a strongly worded dissent on the Trump essay. I know he is going to get more votes than he should get. We don't need to promote his hate and the people that support it.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
He looks forward to a dozen eggs costing 40 dollars.
On “What If Trump Wins?”
I am not sure she was ever drawing dead. I think a lot of pollsters have their thumbs slightly on the scale for Trump because they are afraid of repeating their mistakes from 2016 and 2020. I've heard/read that pollsters also refuse to look at or include new voters like the hundreds of thousands of young people who registered after Harris became the nominee.
Plus I think the aggregators are less good at isolating or discounting the flood the zone polls from Republican partisans than they think they are.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
Trump is a narcissistic, sociopathic, corrupt, malignant, autocratic, racist, anti-Semitic, Islamophobic, Homophobic, Sexist, Transphobic, Xenophobic, fascist wanna be Putin with absolute contempt for democracy and the rule of law. There is no argument for him. There has be been an argument for him.
He tells us who he is and what he will do. Believe him and take it seriously and literally. He will only inflict misery.
OT should be ashamed to publish this after Sunday’s Nuremberg Rally which even the normally BSDI media denounced as filled with racist hate and lies. OT should be ashamed to publish this after Bezos obeyed in advance, refused to let his paper endorse Harris, and received 200k subscriptions.
I get that the editors here are very committed to the idea that the some of the most contentious issues can be debated in a civil manner and this is normally good but there are exceptions and arguments for Trump are one of those exceptions. He is a wanna be Putin propped up by a bunch of billionaires. All of the billionaires who support him are emotionally stunted and stuck at being middle school
edgelords.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Abandoning ship: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/trump-harris-obama-springsteen-election-live-updates-rcna177527#rcrd61406
"A joint appearance by Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley before Election Day appears increasingly unlikely, according to a senior Trump adviser who asked for anonymity to describe sensitive internal conversations.
The source said that getting the two former rivals' schedules to mesh has been difficult and that time is running short."
"
Bezos shoots himself in the foot: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/
"
MSNBC is apparently discussing do not obey in advance and Matthew Dowd wants consultants and others to give WaPo reporters and others a Roman back: "the other thing besides canceling subscriptions to washington post and la times we can do as analysts/pundits/political pros is to not help reporters or columnists at either newspaper. don't cooperate with them or tell them until Bezos corrects things, don't call me."
"
https://goodauthority.org/news/election-poll-vote2024-data-pollster-choices-weighting/
An interesting look at how weighing voters changes things.
"There is no end of scrutiny of the 2024 election polls – who is ahead, who is behind, how much the polls will miss the election outcome, etc., etc. These questions have become even more pressing because the presidential race seems to be a toss-up. Every percentage point for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump matters.
But here’s the big problem that no one talks about very much: Simple and defensible decisions by pollsters can drastically change the reported margin between Harris and Trump. I’ll show that the margin can change by as much as eight points. Reasonable decisions produce a margin that ranges from Harris +0.9% to Harris +8%.
This reality highlights that we ask far too much of polls. Ultimately, it’s hard to know how much poll numbers reflect the decisions of voters – or the decisions of pollsters.
The 4 key questions for pollsters
After poll data are collected, pollsters must assess whether they need to adjust or “weight” the data to address the very real possibility that the people who took the poll differ from those who did not. This involves answering four questions:
1. Do respondents match the electorate demographically in terms of sex, age, education, race, etc.? (This was a problem in 2016.)
2. Do respondents match the electorate politically after the sample is adjusted by demographic factors? (This was the problem in 2020.)
3. Which respondents will vote?
4. Should the pollster trust the data?
To show how the answers to these questions can affect poll results, I use a national survey conducted from October 7 – 14, 2024. The sample included 1,924 self-reported registered voters drawn from an online, high-quality panel commonly used in academic and commercial work."
After dropping the respondents who said they were not sure who they would vote for (3.2%) and those with missing demographics, the unweighted data give Harris a 6 percentage point lead – 51.6 % to 45.5% – among the remaining 1,718 respondents.
On “What If Trump Wins?”
"Given that a year ago and more recently than that she was thought to be an albatross I think she’s done quite well."
I think this is a lot of received wisdom. I have a theory and it is mine that we have not fully adjusted to negative partisanship yet and the full ramifications of what it means. Basically, I don't think anyone is getting to Bill Clinton or Obama levels of popularity anytime soon or even Bush II before he crashed.
That being said, Harris and Walz can get polling where their favorability is in the black. Something that has alluded Trump and Vance consistently
"
Also keeping the lights on is very important and competent management is not a skill that should be underrated.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.