Yeah, the J&J was the sickest I've been in years. I never got a booster and don't plan to.
This morning was like a very slight hangover and felt completely fine by the afternoon. My arm is sore but not as bad as the first shingles shot (had a big welt for a week and a throbbing pain that felt like I had dead arm from pitching too many innings). I think I should be in the clear outside of the localized soreness.
But definitely best to get it when you don't have to do anything the next day just to be on the safe side.
Well, this is timely. I got my 2nd shot this afternoon. The day after my first shot wasn't great, but it wasn't nearly as bas for me as the day after the J&J poke.
Mayor Pete has run Transportation like someone not terribly interested in running that department. It was a weird spoil for a loyal soldier with much higher aspirations. I don't know what else they could have given him, but it was always a strange fit.
I didn't mean they tried to game the system with super delegates or anything like that. But to your point, they will discourage such a large field, limit the number of candidates in primary debates and get the machine behind a strong challenger like a Desantis and not a Jeb who has no ability to handle the Orange Crush..
The GOP was blindsided by Trump in 2016. If they had a less democratic primary process like the DNC (who were blindsided by Bernie but better able to get HRC the nom), they would have.
I have to believe they are better prepared to deal with Orange man this time around.
Not to mention that it cannot account for the Republican over performance in New York, or the Red tidal wave in Florida. Two states that despite drastically different policies had the same death rate.
There is one particular person I will see on Thanksgiving who I am very interested to know if she is ready to move on her from idol. If she is, I will be shocked and encouraged about a Trumpless future.
That is very true, but I think the circumstances have changed dramatically. It will be up to Republicans to decide if they still want to buy what he is selling.
It can't be no holds barred mud-slinging, but that should essentially be the message. Trump is yesterday's news. His schtick was "refreshing" in 2016 but played out now. You will never convert all of the MAGAs, but I think most would respond positively to a candidate that isn't going to take crap like the cast of characters from 8 years ago. The GOP debates will be everything - assuming one or both actually make it that far. (I can see Trump backing out if he thinks he will not get the nomination. A long way to go).
You can't out-Trump Trump. To your point, it would become a death spiral thank sinks the party. But I do think we saw a glimpse of how Desantis will approach him with that press conference yesterday. The media tried to draw him into the nonsense and Desantis was forceful while still taking the high road. Of course, some of the reports out of that ran with the "look at the scoreboard" soundbite completely out of context, but that is to be expected. For now, the best thing desantis can do with Trump is just to ignore him.
Now, I believe this is something that can be changed by the Republican controlled state assembly - so probably not a huge problem for Desantis - but something to watch. (Certainly not be as egregious as reversing term limit referendums)!
Waiting your turn is always dubious. It's unlikely Desantis will have as much momentum as he does right now. I think back to Chris Christie as a recent example of a GOP gov who had the juice until he didn't.
I think Desantis needs to shoot his shot this cycle if he want the office,
Desantis doesn't need to rush into an announcement. That would be foolish. Let Trump continue his self implosion.
Regardless, Desantis has this issue to deal with first:
From Tampa Trib:
"Florida law requires elected officials seeking a federal, state or local office while serving in a current one to resign. The resignation must occur no later than 10 days before qualifying for the federal office, and failure to resign by that date would result in automatic resignation effective immediately."
“The statute in text does say federal,” Mills said, but applying the law to a presidential contest is more complicated. “The question is when? What does qualification mean in terms of running for president? Does it mean you are the final nominee or is it when you qualify for the first primary state?”
The statute reads: “Any officer who qualifies for federal public office must resign from the office he or she presently holds if the terms, or any part thereof, run concurrently with each other.”
Could the governor be a candidate for president on Florida’s Republican primary ballot?
“That would seem to be hard to get around,’’ Mills said.
Sandy was a real outlier for many reasons. It was huge and slow and when it made landfall in NJ it was downgraded to a Cat 1. The unprecedented damage done was almost entirely due to flooding caused by storm surge. High tide + wrong side of eye (for the NYC area). It didn't drop a significant amount of rainfall and wind knocked out power of course, but the surge was responsible for the lionshare of devastation. It's basically what was feared would happen to Tampa Bay with Ian if it passed to the North. It passed to the south and sucked the water right out of Tampa Bay. Fort Meyers/Naples, not so fortunate.
As for Florida, Pinellas and MIAMI DADE going red (just to name 2 is significant. And the margins were staggering. Desantis & Rubio rag-dolled Christ and Demmings
Disappointment? Sure. Unmitigated disaster? That's a bit much.
Regardless of margins, expected or otherwise, the Dems losing the House certainly is going to take their agenda off the table for the next 2 years. The Rs were never going to get legislation passed even if they took over both chambers. I get the relief of Dems today, but the euphoria in some circles is a bit baffling. They are still kind of screwed. Dems could barely get anything across the finish line as it was. How did this midterm help them outside of establishing incumbents for the next cycle?
It's weird, the two places I focus most of my attention are New York and Florida, and they most definitely had a red wave.
On “Weekend Plans Post: The Weekend Before The Oil Change”
Yeah, the J&J was the sickest I've been in years. I never got a booster and don't plan to.
This morning was like a very slight hangover and felt completely fine by the afternoon. My arm is sore but not as bad as the first shingles shot (had a big welt for a week and a throbbing pain that felt like I had dead arm from pitching too many innings). I think I should be in the clear outside of the localized soreness.
But definitely best to get it when you don't have to do anything the next day just to be on the safe side.
"
Well, this is timely. I got my 2nd shot this afternoon. The day after my first shot wasn't great, but it wasn't nearly as bas for me as the day after the J&J poke.
I'll let you know how my Saturday goes.
On “Don’t Rush To Coronate Ron DeSantis”
Mayor Pete has run Transportation like someone not terribly interested in running that department. It was a weird spoil for a loyal soldier with much higher aspirations. I don't know what else they could have given him, but it was always a strange fit.
"
And so it begins...
https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1595488095272464384?s=20&t=RjPUXy5P5Kx7jOgkPAU_0g
"
Agree. Altho I wonder what will happen when Mayor Pete & Klobuchar come back to collect those chips they are owed.
"
I didn't mean they tried to game the system with super delegates or anything like that. But to your point, they will discourage such a large field, limit the number of candidates in primary debates and get the machine behind a strong challenger like a Desantis and not a Jeb who has no ability to handle the Orange Crush..
"
The GOP was blindsided by Trump in 2016. If they had a less democratic primary process like the DNC (who were blindsided by Bernie but better able to get HRC the nom), they would have.
I have to believe they are better prepared to deal with Orange man this time around.
"
I was curious to know who the "Republican insiders" were who say RD lacks charisma so I clicked on the hyperlinks.
The FT (in a story behind a paywall) and a Boston Globe/MSNBC columnist don't seem like GOP insiders to me.
On “Did COVID-19 Kill Republican Midterm Chances?”
No.
This is a theory in search of supporting data.
Not to mention that it cannot account for the Republican over performance in New York, or the Red tidal wave in Florida. Two states that despite drastically different policies had the same death rate.
On “Trump Announces 2024 Presidential Candidacy”
There is one particular person I will see on Thanksgiving who I am very interested to know if she is ready to move on her from idol. If she is, I will be shocked and encouraged about a Trumpless future.
"
That is very true, but I think the circumstances have changed dramatically. It will be up to Republicans to decide if they still want to buy what he is selling.
"
It can't be no holds barred mud-slinging, but that should essentially be the message. Trump is yesterday's news. His schtick was "refreshing" in 2016 but played out now. You will never convert all of the MAGAs, but I think most would respond positively to a candidate that isn't going to take crap like the cast of characters from 8 years ago. The GOP debates will be everything - assuming one or both actually make it that far. (I can see Trump backing out if he thinks he will not get the nomination. A long way to go).
"
You can't out-Trump Trump. To your point, it would become a death spiral thank sinks the party. But I do think we saw a glimpse of how Desantis will approach him with that press conference yesterday. The media tried to draw him into the nonsense and Desantis was forceful while still taking the high road. Of course, some of the reports out of that ran with the "look at the scoreboard" soundbite completely out of context, but that is to be expected. For now, the best thing desantis can do with Trump is just to ignore him.
"
The only way to stop a bully is to punch him in the mouth.
No one did in 2016 and that is why Trump bulldozed the field.
Desantis can put the old orange man in his place
"
Now, I believe this is something that can be changed by the Republican controlled state assembly - so probably not a huge problem for Desantis - but something to watch. (Certainly not be as egregious as reversing term limit referendums)!
Waiting your turn is always dubious. It's unlikely Desantis will have as much momentum as he does right now. I think back to Chris Christie as a recent example of a GOP gov who had the juice until he didn't.
I think Desantis needs to shoot his shot this cycle if he want the office,
"
Desantis doesn't need to rush into an announcement. That would be foolish. Let Trump continue his self implosion.
Regardless, Desantis has this issue to deal with first:
From Tampa Trib:
"Florida law requires elected officials seeking a federal, state or local office while serving in a current one to resign. The resignation must occur no later than 10 days before qualifying for the federal office, and failure to resign by that date would result in automatic resignation effective immediately."
“The statute in text does say federal,” Mills said, but applying the law to a presidential contest is more complicated. “The question is when? What does qualification mean in terms of running for president? Does it mean you are the final nominee or is it when you qualify for the first primary state?”
The statute reads: “Any officer who qualifies for federal public office must resign from the office he or she presently holds if the terms, or any part thereof, run concurrently with each other.”
Could the governor be a candidate for president on Florida’s Republican primary ballot?
“That would seem to be hard to get around,’’ Mills said.
On “The Republican Civil War Is Upon Us”
Sandy was a real outlier for many reasons. It was huge and slow and when it made landfall in NJ it was downgraded to a Cat 1. The unprecedented damage done was almost entirely due to flooding caused by storm surge. High tide + wrong side of eye (for the NYC area). It didn't drop a significant amount of rainfall and wind knocked out power of course, but the surge was responsible for the lionshare of devastation. It's basically what was feared would happen to Tampa Bay with Ian if it passed to the North. It passed to the south and sucked the water right out of Tampa Bay. Fort Meyers/Naples, not so fortunate.
On “The Red Wave That Wasn’t”
They have not been Red for 20 years. Purple at best. The Tom Gulotta Era ended a long time ago.
"
Not sure where you're getting your info re NY. The Burbs went red.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/2022-midterm-new-york-house-elections-republican-00065919
As for Florida, Pinellas and MIAMI DADE going red (just to name 2 is significant. And the margins were staggering. Desantis & Rubio rag-dolled Christ and Demmings
"
Disappointment? Sure. Unmitigated disaster? That's a bit much.
Regardless of margins, expected or otherwise, the Dems losing the House certainly is going to take their agenda off the table for the next 2 years. The Rs were never going to get legislation passed even if they took over both chambers. I get the relief of Dems today, but the euphoria in some circles is a bit baffling. They are still kind of screwed. Dems could barely get anything across the finish line as it was. How did this midterm help them outside of establishing incumbents for the next cycle?
It's weird, the two places I focus most of my attention are New York and Florida, and they most definitely had a red wave.
On “About Last Night: Beige Trickle Election Results Edition”
Biggest winner and loser of last night.
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html
On “Election Night Open Thread: Talking about the Returns”
And on last check, the betting markets have completely flipped. Dems with a71% probability of controlling the Senate.
"
Rs are complaining about how much money it wasted propping up his candidacy, when it should have been spent elsewhere
"
I've been monitoring this since you shared it. GOP control of the Senate was as high as 79% probability around 5pm. It's now down to 62%.
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Andrew will be pleased about what's happening in Ohio.
DeWine cruising, but Vance in serious trouble. A lot of ticket splitting.