PBS Called Warner (VA Senate) with a huge graphic showing Warner behind 45% to Gade 55% and <1% in.
Probably true, but man, the execution is way off... get your graphics aligned with your call people.
Different feeds then... I haven't seen any 'smart' conservatives calling it for Trump with any confidence... I've seen the usual sort of rallying/cheering/bucking-up the faithful types of calls.
In fact among the 'smart' non-Lincoln conservatives Henry Olsen predicts a blood-bath... and he's an actual data kinda guy.
Didn't make it onto 9 at all. The other 33 are a flavor of write-in. Definitely requires an organization that's distributed in all 50 states and within those states many require signatures from every county... so have to organize across the entire state as well. It's a process that requires actual ground troops, not simply an idea and some $$.
Plausible... but a little depressing. Neither side will concede on election day (nor should they, probably)... I'm just hoping the process while delayed is at least organized, competent and swift.
The narrative building BS will be overwhelming though. Give us strength to remain properly agnostic through it all.
SOLIDARI... ok, maybe not. But hey, at least my candidate personally thanked me on Twitter. I told my family that it will be cool to see our votes individually tabulated in Virginia as the count goes from 4 votes to 9 votes.
In years past I would assume the Libertarian vote would follow the Liberal Social issues into supporting the Dems if someone like Trump were on the ballot. But, from what I'm reading, I'm not getting that vibe at all. I am not a libertarian expert, but the vibe I'm getting from that faction is that the Left is the bigger threat to liberty. But on the contrarian hand, I'm not sure that we won't see an increase in third party voting. So... my prediction is that we see the same (or nearly the same) levels of third party votes. But if I'm wrong, the break will be mostly for Trump.
Yeah... this is it (I still think the Riots are local vs. National factors, esp compared to Covid).
Part of my unscientific analysis comes from my small Red area and my even smaller parish. Covid is *the* dividing line... about half are wearing masks, but about 80% would be gettable Trump (well, Republican) votes. The fact that half are wearing masks is a real divide.
Sociologically it's interesting... the Mask/No-Mask doesn't break by Theological, Liturgical, or Economic position... seems to be correlated directly to support for Trump (or the Republican Party). It makes me sad that this became part of political wars, but it did.
As a critique from the Horseshoe Right... it isn't lost on me that the best defense of Trump is that he's Jeb! without the magnetic charm. That *ought* to be disqualifying in its own right... at least by Trump's own definition of a successful Trump Presidency.
Yeah, I'll stick with my prediction from the previous thread that Biden will win a significant EC victory.
BUT, I'm epistemically prepared to say to myself, "huh, I guess I really underestimated how the influx of all these "new" voters were going to vote." Which is to say, my read on people who willingly voted for Trump last time remains the same (98% renewal), and my read on how the folks who unwillingly voted for Trump seems to be breaking about how I expected (50% willing / 25% unwilling but yes / 25% staying home or 3rd party)... so a slight net loss for Trump (which would be enough to undo the EC - assuming the trend is more than local). But, I just don't have a read on the influx of "new" voters. I think the bias is that all these voters are people fed-up with Trump (and maybe they are!), but I won't be surprised if the raw vote counts show significant growth for Trump. I'll be surprised if Trump wins a majority, but I won't be surprised if Trump garners 10%-15% more votes than last time and depending on where those votes land... whelp... my hindsight will be 20/20.
* of course, they aren't necessarily "new" voters... its just that when we have 30%-40% who regularly sit out elections, its hard to say what's gonna happen when 10% - 20% decide to show up.
On “Election Day 2020: Open Thread, Breaking News, and Running Discussion”
They let Karl Rove back on Fox on Election night?
"
Never had that before, looks like something I'd like.
"
Yeah, it's probably mostly FL... I bought high on FL when polling was showing a big Biden spread among seniors. Looks like I bought peak FL.
"
Ok, I know it's *very* early... but I keep saying "huh" a lot. Like about as often as I said "huh" in 2016.
"
PBS Called Warner (VA Senate) with a huge graphic showing Warner behind 45% to Gade 55% and <1% in. Probably true, but man, the execution is way off... get your graphics aligned with your call people.
"
I'm gonna have to move to something stronger than Kombucha... maybe some Drambuie - orange for American Solidarity Party
"
Invoke the originalist meaning of First Past the Post.
"
Biden 3
Trump 8
Not looking good for Biden...
"
Is it over yet?
"
Different feeds then... I haven't seen any 'smart' conservatives calling it for Trump with any confidence... I've seen the usual sort of rallying/cheering/bucking-up the faithful types of calls.
In fact among the 'smart' non-Lincoln conservatives Henry Olsen predicts a blood-bath... and he's an actual data kinda guy.
"
ASP made it onto 8 official ballots.
Didn't make it onto 9 at all. The other 33 are a flavor of write-in. Definitely requires an organization that's distributed in all 50 states and within those states many require signatures from every county... so have to organize across the entire state as well. It's a process that requires actual ground troops, not simply an idea and some $$.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: Global Pandemic Edition”
Oh sure... wait for *all* the pre-election polls to come in.
On “Election Day 2020: Open Thread, Breaking News, and Running Discussion”
Harshing my buzz man.
"
Well... assuming my Twitter feed is a neutral observer... it's gonna be a BIG day for Solidarity... like YUGE.
[Is that how Twitter works?]
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: Global Pandemic Edition”
Plausible... but a little depressing. Neither side will concede on election day (nor should they, probably)... I'm just hoping the process while delayed is at least organized, competent and swift.
The narrative building BS will be overwhelming though. Give us strength to remain properly agnostic through it all.
"
Working on my Post Mortem of how I failed to correctly pick the winner...
"I know why Biden lost, but I know not how."
"
SOLIDARI... ok, maybe not. But hey, at least my candidate personally thanked me on Twitter. I told my family that it will be cool to see our votes individually tabulated in Virginia as the count goes from 4 votes to 9 votes.
In years past I would assume the Libertarian vote would follow the Liberal Social issues into supporting the Dems if someone like Trump were on the ballot. But, from what I'm reading, I'm not getting that vibe at all. I am not a libertarian expert, but the vibe I'm getting from that faction is that the Left is the bigger threat to liberty. But on the contrarian hand, I'm not sure that we won't see an increase in third party voting. So... my prediction is that we see the same (or nearly the same) levels of third party votes. But if I'm wrong, the break will be mostly for Trump.
"
Yeah... this is it (I still think the Riots are local vs. National factors, esp compared to Covid).
Part of my unscientific analysis comes from my small Red area and my even smaller parish. Covid is *the* dividing line... about half are wearing masks, but about 80% would be gettable Trump (well, Republican) votes. The fact that half are wearing masks is a real divide.
Sociologically it's interesting... the Mask/No-Mask doesn't break by Theological, Liturgical, or Economic position... seems to be correlated directly to support for Trump (or the Republican Party). It makes me sad that this became part of political wars, but it did.
On “The Case For Trump”
Berlusconi is a good comp.
Berlusconi's schtick crumbled with actual populists (left and right) who came after him.
"
As a critique from the Horseshoe Right... it isn't lost on me that the best defense of Trump is that he's Jeb! without the magnetic charm. That *ought* to be disqualifying in its own right... at least by Trump's own definition of a successful Trump Presidency.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: Global Pandemic Edition”
Yeah, I'll stick with my prediction from the previous thread that Biden will win a significant EC victory.
BUT, I'm epistemically prepared to say to myself, "huh, I guess I really underestimated how the influx of all these "new" voters were going to vote." Which is to say, my read on people who willingly voted for Trump last time remains the same (98% renewal), and my read on how the folks who unwillingly voted for Trump seems to be breaking about how I expected (50% willing / 25% unwilling but yes / 25% staying home or 3rd party)... so a slight net loss for Trump (which would be enough to undo the EC - assuming the trend is more than local). But, I just don't have a read on the influx of "new" voters. I think the bias is that all these voters are people fed-up with Trump (and maybe they are!), but I won't be surprised if the raw vote counts show significant growth for Trump. I'll be surprised if Trump wins a majority, but I won't be surprised if Trump garners 10%-15% more votes than last time and depending on where those votes land... whelp... my hindsight will be 20/20.
* of course, they aren't necessarily "new" voters... its just that when we have 30%-40% who regularly sit out elections, its hard to say what's gonna happen when 10% - 20% decide to show up.
On “The Conservaliberaltarian Case For Abidin’ With Biden”
It wasn't the Ides of March, it was the brunch.
Plausible.
"
Now I'm kinda hoping. This is how you get fascism.
I don't remember reading this in Arendt.
"
"What is a beheading without avocado toast and a mimosa?"
Not sure, but if we're making it a thing I expect the other guys will come up with something equally suitable.
On “The Antifa Case for Voting Trump”
Hey, I said I had an original copy of Crunchy Cons. I'm OG Dreher...before he sold out to big Benedict.