The 97th Oscars’ Best Picture Race: As Wide Open As It Gets

We’re just under a month away from the 97th Academy Awards, and for the first time since maybe this point in 2015, I have absolutely no idea what’s going to win Best Picture. Back last spring, I felt pretty confident this would be a chaotic and unpredictable season – certainly more so than last year’s Oppenheimer domination, which lasted from “Barbenheimer” weekend straight through to Oscar night; or when Everything Everywhere All At Once pulled off a historic industry guilds’ sweep before pulling off a historic Oscar night and winning the most above-the-line prizes any movie ever has. But I didn’t expect a season where the early pre major festivals’ frontrunner (Sing Sing) wouldn’t even make it into the final ten, or where we’d get what might be the most surprising Best Picture nominee of the modern Oscar era (I’m Still Here). And I definitely wasn’t expecting a legitimate case for at least six of the ten nominees to have a real shot at winning as we head into the industry awards.

What I did expect, though (and got) was a much more populist, more diverse lineup in terms of film genre and production scale. This year’s nominees include two musicals (Emilia Perez, Wicked), two major box office hits (Dune: Part Two, Wicked), two international films (Emilia Perez, I’m Still Here), two small indie darlings (Nickel Boys, The Brutalist), a religious political thriller (Conclave), a screwball comedy (Anora), a body horror film (The Substance), and, of course, the obligatory music biopic that the Academy’s older members inevitably push into the mix (A Complete Unknown). Personally, I can’t complain too much – seven of these made my “Best Of” list for 2024, and four of my top five are in the running. Objectively though, I’d still argue this is a solid slate, one that genuinely reflects the breadth of what stood out last year across different types of films and cinematic fanbases.

At this point in the awards season, we usually have a clear critical darling with a dominant lead in regional critics’ prizes, a second film trying to stay within striking distance, maybe a third wildcard that the industry is rallying behind, and a Best Director frontrunner whose film is firmly in the mix. This year, though, things look a lot murkier. The regional groups’ leader hasn’t been able to pull away like past critical favorites; the directing frontrunner has a shaky precursor lead, and their film isn’t a sure bet for Best Picture either; and we have six films that have shown up almost everywhere they’ve needed to, but each comes with at least one major red flag. Simply put, this season is a lot harder to get a read on than years past.

Post-nominations, I’d usually put together my early predictions for all 23 categories, but with this year’s Best Picture race so wide open heading into the major industry awards, I’ve decided to take a different approach. Instead, I’m breaking down all ten nominees; where I think their chances stand on Oscar night, along with some personal observations on their potential legacy beyond the ceremony. I’ve listed each film in alphabetical order, offering key points to consider for each contender and my best attempt at an objective analysis for that movie (Though personal opinions will pop up here and there, after all I am a film critic).

A Complete Unknown (Dir. James Mangold; Searchlight Pictures)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: New York, early sixties. Against the backdrop of a vibrant music scene and tumultuous cultural upheaval, an enigmatic nineteen-year-old from Minnesota arrives in the West Village with his guitar and revolutionary talent, destined to change the course of American music.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: American Film Institute, BAFTA Top 5, Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild Of America, Golden Globes Drama, National Board Of Review, Producers Guild Of America, Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild Of America
• Other Oscar Nominations: Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Sound, Costume Design
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: Bohemian Rhapsody; Elvis; Maestro; Ray; Walk The Line
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: Admittedly, this is one of only two movies from this slate of ten that I think would rank among the worst Best Picture winners of the past two decades. Not only was I personally pretty “meh” on it, but I’d be surprised if it’s widely remembered just a few years from now. That said, to be fair, audience scores have been solid, and I’ve spoken to several critics and cinephiles who have defended it. It’s landed in every major Best Picture lineup except one – but that one miss was with the Astra Awards, which have never failed to nominate the eventual Oscar winner. It does have crucial nods from DGA, SAG Ensemble, BAFTA’s Top 5, and both Director and Screenplay at the Oscars. But it missed the all-important Editing nomination and was completely shut out at the Golden Globes; something that almost never happens to the eventual Best Picture winner. There’s undeniably some real passion behind this film, but at this point, I’d call it more of a wildcard than a frontrunner. It has a very small room for error.

Anora (Dir. Sean Baker; Neon)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: Anora, a young sex worker from Brooklyn, gets her chance at a Cinderella story when she meets and impulsively marries the son of an oligarch. Once the news reaches Russia, her fairytale is threatened as the parents set out for New York to get the marriage annulled.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: American Film Institute, BAFTA Top 5, Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild Of America, Golden Globes Comedy/Musical, Hollywood Creative Alliance’s Astra Awards, National Board Of Review, Producers Guild Of America, Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild Of America
• Other Oscar Nominations: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: Annie Hall; Nights Of Cabiria; Mighty Aphrodite; Poor Things; Pretty Woman
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: I’ve been openly skeptical that Anora is our winner ever since it left Cannes as the film many declared the one to beat. It has lead in regional critics groups’ prizes (including Central Florida, of which I am a member of) and it’s the only film that hasn’t missed a single major Best Picture lineup or key industry nomination. And yet, it keeps showing signs of weakness. Its precursor lead is the weakest for a Best Picture critics’ darling since the 2017 season. It’s the only film with an all-important Editing nomination that also blanked at the Golden Globes – again, not something that typically happens to eventual Best Picture winners. And its path to the top prize has only gotten shakier as its lead actress starts to lose steam as the category frontrunner. Anora could bounce back in a big way this weekend, but right now, it feels like the movie everyone likes; just not one that can rack up the needed wins.

Conclave (Dir. Edward Berger; Focus Features)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: After the unexpected death of the Pope, Cardinal Lawrence is tasked with managing the covert and ancient ritual of electing a new one. Sequestered in the Vatican with the Catholic Church’s most powerful leaders until the process is complete, Lawrence finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could lead to its downfall.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: American Film Institute, BAFTA Top 5, Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild Of America, Golden Globes Drama, Hollywood Creative Alliance’s Astra Awards, National Board Of Review, Producers Guild Of America, Screen Actors Guild
• Other Oscar Nominations: Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: All The President’s Men; Anatomy Of A Fall; Darkest Hour; The Ides Of March; The Two Popes
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: Conclave had landed in every single major Best Picture lineup and gotten every key nomination – until it missed Best Director with the Academy. But if you set that snub aside, this is a film that has shown up everywhere it needed to and one that could benefit from the preferential ballot, especially in such a divided race. It’s the clear frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay, but beyond that, finding additional wins could be a challenge. That said, if it pulls off a PGA win this weekend, everything could shift. Conclave is the sneaky contender that keeps showing up, yet some might be making the mistake of overlooking it as a real threat.

Dune: Part Two (Dir. Denis Villeneuve; Warner Brothers)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: Follow the mythic journey of Paul Atreides as he unites with Chani and the Fremen while on a path of revenge against the conspirators who destroyed his family. Facing a choice between the love of his life and the fate of the known universe, Paul endeavors to prevent a terrible future only he can foresee.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: American Film Institute, BAFTA Top 10, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes Drama, Hollywood Creative Alliance’s Astra Awards, Producers Guild Of America, Writers Guild Of America
• Other Oscar Nominations: Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound, Production Design
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: Avatar; Ben-Hur; Lawrence Of Arabia; Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back; The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: Dune: Part Two objectively boasts the year’s best audience scores and was a great box office success. It appeared on countless “Best Of” lists (including mine) and follows a predecessor that won six Oscars. And yet, it hasn’t matched the awards success of the first film – likely due to genre bias, its early release, and the fact that it’s the middle chapter of a trilogy, which seems to have lowered its ceiling. Maybe the final installment will be the one to sweep up the awards many of us feel this technical masterpiece of a series deserve. For now, though, Dune: Part Two is just happy to be nominated.

Emilia Perez (Dir. Jacques Audiard; Netflix)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: Rita, an underrated lawyer working for a large law firm more interested in getting criminals out of jail than bringing them to justice, is hired by the leader of a criminal organization.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: American Film Institute, BAFTA Top 5, Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild Of America, Golden Globes Comedy/Musical, Hollywood Creative Alliance’s Astra Awards, Producers Guild Of America, Screen Actors Guild
• Other Oscar Nominations: Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature, Original Song (twice), Original Score, Sound, Editing, Cinematography, Makeup & Hair
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: All That Jazz; Cabaret; Chicago; Moulin Rouge!; West Side Story
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: The nominations leader this season is also one of only three Best Picture nominees (A Complete Unknown and I’m Still Here being the others) that hasn’t won a single regional critics’ prize in the U.S. Watching Emilia Perez gain industry support has been downright confounding. Divisive films have cracked the Best Picture lineup before (some have even come close to winning) but none of them had the kind of record-breaking awful audience scores this one does. Case in point, it’s literally the lowest-rated Best Picture nominee of all time on Letterboxd. On top of that, the film has faced criticism from both Latin and Queer critics for its sloppy representation of both communities. On paper, it should still be a strong contender, as its only major misses so far have been failing to land a Best Picture mention from the National Board of Review and its screenplay not qualifying with the Writers Guild. But beyond Supporting Actress, it has struggled to win above-the-line prizes, and now its lead actress is caught in controversy after past bigoted and offensive tweets resurfaced. If Emilia Perez goes from nominations leader to Best Picture flameout, I can’t help but wonder if it will be because of the scandal surrounding its lead star, or were those abysmal audience scores always a sign of trouble?

I’m Still Here (Dir. Walter Salles; Sony Pictures Classic)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: In the early seventies, the military dictatorship in Brazil reaches its height. The Paiva family (Rubens, Eunice, and their five children) live in a beachside house in Rio, open to all their friends. One day, Rubens is taken for questioning and does not return.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: None
• Other Oscar Nominations: Actress, International Feature
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: Judas And The Black Messiah; Roma; Save The Tiger; The Motorcycle Diaries; Z
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: I’m Still Here is one of the only nominees competing with Dune: Part Two and Wicked for the objectively best audience scores, but its nomination was easily the biggest surprise in modern Oscar history. Past shockers like The Blind Side, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Phantom Thread, Nightmare Alley, and Triangle of Sadness at least had enough industry support to show up elsewhere or secure key nominations. This film, on the other hand, had zero major Best Picture nods leading up to Oscar morning, and we were wondering if it would manage more than a single nomination! Now, I’m Still Here is surging at the perfect time, but beyond potentially giving Emilia Perez a headache in International Feature or sneaking a win in the Actress race if things get chaotic, this is a film that’s definitely just honored to be nominated.

Nickel Boys (Dir. RaMell Ross; MGM)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: Chronicles the powerful friendship between two young Black teenagers navigating the harrowing trials of reform school together in Florida.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: American Film Institute, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes Drama, Writers Guild Of America
• Other Oscar Nominations: Adapted Screenplay
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: City Of God; Midnight Cowboy; Moonlight; The Power Of The Dog; The Tree Of Life
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: While it was one of my favorite films of last year, Nickel Boys is easily the hardest and least accessible nominee to pitch to family and friends. Its tough subject matter and experimental filmmaking made it a bubble contender heading into nominations morning. It’s also this year’s token Best Picture nominee with only a Screenplay nod to go with it – and historically, those movies don’t win. Nickel Boys is just happy to be here.

The Brutalist (Dir. Brady Corbet; A24)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: Escaping post-war Europe, visionary architect László Tóth arrives in America to rebuild his life, his work, and his marriage to his wife Erzsébet after being forced apart during wartime by shifting borders and regimes. On his own in a strange new country, László settles in Pennsylvania, where the wealthy and prominent industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren recognizes his talent for building. But power and legacy come at a heavy cost.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: American Film Institute, BAFTA Top 5, Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild Of America, Golden Globes Drama, Hollywood Creative Alliance’s Astra Awards, Producers Guild Of America
• Other Oscar Nominations: Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: Citizen Kane; Killers Of The Flower Moon; The Deer Hunter; The Godfather; There Will Be Blood
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: On paper, The Brutalist should be the clear frontrunner for the top prize. It boasts the Best Director frontrunner and, at this point, has the clearest path to Best Picture compared to the other contenders still searching for one. It landed in nearly every major Best Picture lineup and scored 10 Oscar nominations, including an Editing nod that many didn’t see coming. And yet, there are concerns. The film is nearly four hours long, and some voters have already been quoted complaining about the runtime. It’s earned decent-to-great audience scores, but I can’t shake the feeling that it might be more respected than loved, which could be a problem on a preferential ballot. Its biggest red flag? A weak showing with SAG; it only managed a nomination for its lead actor and missed the historically crucial Ensemble nod. As I write this, I still think this could be our Best Picture winner as I’ve had it pegged as the one to beat since it left the fall festivals; but it’s far from a lock. There’s a very real scenario where the floor just collapses beneath it.

The Substance (Dir. Coralie Fargeat; Mubi)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: A fading celebrity decides to use a black market drug, a cell-replicating substance that temporarily creates a younger, better version of herself.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: BAFTA Top 10, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes Comedy/Musical, Hollywood Creative Alliance’s Astra Awards, Producers Guild Of America
• Other Oscar Nominations: Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Makeup & Hair
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: Black Swan; Death Becomes Her; Get Out; The Fly; Whatever Happened To Baby Jane?
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: While it secured Director and Screenplay nominations and has won more than a handful of regional critics’ awards (including Puerto Rico, where I’m a member), The Substance isn’t a serious contender for the top prize on Oscar night. Its best chances lie in Makeup and its lead actress currently making a late surge from also-ran to legitimate threat to win. But ultimately, the nomination is the win for this film as it’s only the seventh horror movie ever to be nominated for Best Picture.

Wicked (Dir. Jon M. Chu; Universal Studios)

• Plot, Via Letterboxd: When ostracized and misunderstood green-skinned Elphaba is forced to share a room with the popular aristocrat Glinda, the two’s unlikely friendship is tested as they begin to fulfill their respective destinies as Glinda the Good and the Wicked Witch of the West.
• Other Major Best Picture Nominations: American Film Institute, BAFTA Top 10, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes Comedy/Musical, Hollywood Creative Alliance’s Astra Awards, National Board Of Review, Producers Guild Of America, Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild Of America
• Other Oscar Nominations: Actress, Supporting Actress, Editing, Visual Effects, Original Score, Sound, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hair
• Past Oscar Nominees I’d Compare It To: Beauty And The Beast; Harry Potter And The Sorcerer’s Stone; Hugo; Mary Poppins; The Wizard Of Oz
• Objective Analysis On Its Chances: With Wicked being my personal favorite film of last year, I have to make sure to keep my objective hat on when analyzing its chances. From day one, I’ve argued that it could become the contender it is now, but I’ve never bought into it as a potential winner. It has all the markings of a Barbie or Top Gun: Maverick; where the nomination itself is the victory for a movie of its production and box office size. It also faces the hurdle of voters knowing that another section of the story is coming next season.That said, I do think Wicked is a wildcard that could defy gravity (pun intended) and win, especially if the chaos of this awards season continues into the final phase. It landed 10 Oscar nominations, including a surprise nod for Editing, which historically puts a film at least within reach of a Best Picture win. It’s also one of only three films (Anora and Conclave being the others) to make every single major expanded Best Picture lineup. On top of that, it tied for the nominations record at SAG, a guild made up of members from the Academy’s largest branch. However, there are major hurdles. Its director failed to become a serious contender, and its screenplay didn’t gain traction beyond a Writers Guild nomination. Plus, it missed out on the BAFTA 5 and DGA; both of which have historically been crucial for a Best Picture win. Wicked‘s best shot is leveraging its great audience scores on the preferential ballot to its advantage and overcoming those big misses, but its margin for error is razor-thin.