The 97th Oscars’ Best Picture Race: As Wide Open As It Gets

Luis A. Mendez

Boricua. Floridian. Theist. Writer. Podcaster. Film Critic. Oscars Predictor. Occasional Psephologist. Member Of The Critics Association Of Central Florida, The International Film Society Critics, And The Puerto Rico Critics Association.

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27 Responses

  1. Jaybird
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    says:

    Harvey Weinstein released an apology in 2017 at the height of the #MeToo thing in which he said “I am going to need a place to channel that anger, so I’ve decided that I’m going to give the NRA my full attention. I hope Wayne LaPierre will enjoy his retirement party. I’m going to do it at the same place I had my Bar Mitzvah. I’m making a movie about our President, perhaps we can make it a joint retirement party.”

    I don’t know about anybody else but *I* interpreted that part of the letter as him saying “let me off the hook and I will make sure that we have *GOOD* message movies come out and we can tackle the NRA and we can tackle Trump! Come on! Let me off the hook!”

    He thought he could get away with this because of an undercurrent where there is a belief that movies are a vehicle to shape public opinion… and, I think, that really good (award winning!) movies are an indicator that public opinion has been moved to some degree. See? The critics agree.

    Way back when, Mass Effect: Andromeda bragged about having a major NPC in the game be trans. They made a big deal out of it and pointed to all of the chuds rolling their eyes as evidence for how groundbreaking and *IMPORTANT* this character was going to be and how necessary it was.

    And, pretty soon after the game was released, Bioware apologized for how crudely they introduced the character to the player. Instead of adding a trans character, they added a trans caricature and their laughs about owning the chuds quickly became a promise to do better in the future.

    Anyway, Emilia Perez reminds me a lot of that. The original thought was one of support for the community and taking the occasional outcry from the chuds as vindication… and talking to members of the community is quickly turning things around and soon we’ll have an apology, I’m sure.

    And I think that all of the votes for Emilia Perez are going to have to go somewhere and Wicked seems to be the best magnet for the voters who want to Send A Message and let everybody know that the Public Opinion has been nudged and this is an award for the movie that nudged it. (And the $700,000,000 doesn’t hurt either.)

    So, if I had an easy way to bet $5 on Wicked, I’d bet my $5 on Wicked.Report

    • North in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      I mean, not only has Wicked made bank at the box office it also has banging good music and the remake is shockingly clever and funny in winking at its own past broadway incarnations and the acting is phenomenal.

      Emelia Perez… well the music thuds along like a triangular wheel, the writing is meh and, of course, the audiences ain’t impressed.Report

  2. John Puccio
    Ignored
    says:

    According to current betting odds, the Best Picture race is not wide open.

    The Brutalist is the clear favorite at -140

    The next best odds are for Emilia Perez at +340.

    Jaybird – Get your $5 on Wicked. At +1600 you’ll get a health $85 payout.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to John Puccio
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      says:

      The Brutalist? I suppose “post-WWII (if only barely)” is different from “WWII” but how in the hell is that pellet bar still spitting out product?Report

      • Chris in reply to Jaybird
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        says:

        There was a lot going on; makes for easy storytelling.

        I mean, we feel like there’s a lot going on now, but mostly there are just posts, so it’ll be hard to do movies from this period, but the 1940s through the 1980s? Shite was happening.Report

        • Jaybird in reply to Chris
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          says:

          I’m not saying “don’t set a movie in 1951”. I’m more kvetching about yet another movie dominated by the shadow of WWII.

          Jeez. We even stopped making Vietnam movies eventually.Report

          • Chris in reply to Jaybird
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            says:

            There are only two types of Vietnam movies you can make: gritty war films that are all about honoring the soldiers and the cause (Green Berets, We Were Soldiers, pretty much anything about MIAs) or gritty war films that are critical of that war and war generally (Platoon, Apocalypse Now, Full Metal Jacket). Those get tiresome after a while.

            We have lost the ability to make anti-war comedies, like M.A.S.H., Good Morning Vietnam), but I think we’ve kinda lost the ability to laugh about much of anything these days.Report

            • InMD in reply to Chris
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              says:

              You’re forgetting the finest comedic war film of all.

              Hot Shots: Part Deux.Report

            • Jaybird in reply to Chris
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              says:

              Have we stopped making Afghanistan/Desert Storm II movies?

              Good lord.

              Maybe we’ll get Civil War II.Report

            • John Puccio in reply to Chris
              Ignored
              says:

              Interesting point.

              On one hand, “war comedy” was never an expansive film category. It’s probably the hardest needle to thread on film. So without a generation of talented writers (Hooker, Heller, Vonnegut, etc) providing bonafide source material, you’re not going to see many attempts made at original screenplays. With every generation, we have fewer and fewer people serving in the military, so that veteran-writer voice has become smaller and smaller.

              That said, Jo Jo Rabbit is an absolutely brilliant film. (The only recent example of war comedy I could think of…)Report

              • InMD in reply to John Puccio
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                says:

                I think you’re onto something with this. All volunteer force has made the military more remote than maybe ever. We not only lack the writers for the source material, we probably lack the production people and maybe even audiences to see it as a source of humor.Report

              • John Puccio in reply to InMD
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                says:

                Figure about 16 million Americans served in the armed forces during WW2. That’s a lot of people who could personally relate to a book like Catch 22.Report

  3. Marchmaine
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    says:

    It’ll be Conclave… Costumes! Location! Villains! Ralph Fiennes! TrendEdgy! No Risk!Report

    • Chris in reply to Marchmaine
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      says:

      Not just Ralph Fiennes! Ralph Fiennes speaking Italian!Report

    • InMD in reply to Marchmaine
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      says:

      Was it in fact good?

      Of the nominees I saw Dune 2, the Substance, and Anora. I thought all 3 of them failed to stick the ending and would therefore feel pretty meh about any of them being called best anything.Report

      • North in reply to InMD
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        says:

        Yeah Dune with all the mystical stuff eliminated just… well it was like a hollowed out eggshell.Report

        • Marchmaine in reply to North
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          says:

          Yeah, imagine what a stupid fundamentalist rube you’d have to be to follow a leader who could read the sands of the future.Report

          • InMD in reply to Marchmaine
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            says:

            I must strenuously, strenuously, and even more strenuously object to this totally undeserved denigration of Stilgar.

            But also was Conclave legit good? My question wasn’t meant sarcastically, I couldn’t tell if your endorsement was serious or not!Report

            • Marchmaine in reply to InMD
              Ignored
              says:

              I have only imbibed Conclave indirectly via friends/family who have seen it. The universal approval was Costumes! Location! Ralph Fiennes (plus Italian)!

              As to Good? Well, you don’t have to be Good to win an Oscar or secure a prediction. 🙂

              But, most felt ‘disappointed’ by the Twist and opined that a) a murder mystery or b) straight political drama would’ve been better.

              Both liberal and conservative Catholics felt that the Conservative catholics weren’t properly crafted foils… but the liberals were ok with it and the cons felt is soured what could’ve been a better movie. Kinda like a Sorkin loop.

              I’ll wait until it cycles through HBO… meanwhile will re-watch Young Pope for Costumes! Location! Villains! Jude Law! TrenEdgy!Report

  4. Chris
    Ignored
    says:

    [SPOILER ALERT, sorta]

    Of the Oscar films, I’ve seen only Conclave, Emilia Perez, and Dune. I know a lot of y’all love Dune, but I thought it was boring as hell and I have no idea why it’s nominated for anything that doesn’t have to do with visuals, except that the Oscars has a long history of loving really big productions that aren’t particularly good as movies (see, e.g., Titanic, or the movie about the tall blue people that was supposed to be some sort of allegory). Emilia Perez is a mess of a film from the choices to make it a musical like those dudes are friggin’ Jacques Demy to the casting of Selena Gomez, with all that messiness masking a pretty trite plot and mostly meh performances. Conclave was fun to watch, the performances were excellent, the twist at the end was unnecessary, but overall, worth the price of admission (or stream). I do think by the end it felt a lot like a love letter to the Catholic Church, which is an institution of which I’m not a fan, but whatever, a conclave of cardinals is a pretty good setting for a political drama. Having not seen any of the other films nominated (and having no interest in any of them but maybe Nickel Boys), I am gonna have to root for Conclave.Report

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