Trouble in Russia: Developing Story, “Wagner Mutiny” and Discussion Thread
Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2010. Photo by Government of the Russian Federation, CC BY 3.0
Y’all might want to run and read up on maskirovka right quick. There is a lot we don’t know, but Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin has turned his attention from fighting in Ukraine to threatening Moscow, Vladimir Putin is calling it “mutiny…betraying Russia,” and it appears to be Katy Bar The Door time in Russkaya Zemlya.
The boss of Russia’s Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says its mercenaries have seized “all military facilities” in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don.
They are also said to have deployed in Voronezh, further north, following his threat to march on Moscow to topple Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
There have also been sightings of Wagner vehicles on the highway linking Voronezh to Moscow.
President Vladimir Putin called the rebellion “a stab in the back”.
He pledged to punish those who had “betrayed” Russia.
Tighter security has been introduced in many regions, including Moscow.
The Wagner Group is a private army of mercenaries that has been fighting alongside the regular Russian army in Ukraine.
Tension has been growing between them over how the war has been fought, with Prigozhin launching vocal criticisms of Russia’s military leadership in recent months.
The dramatic escalation came after Prigozhin accused Russia’s military of hitting his group’s base in Ukraine – a claim denied by Moscow.
Prigozhin claims this is not a military coup, but his aim seems to be to topple Russia’s military leadership, reports the BBC’s Russia editor Steve Rosenberg in Moscow.
Putin under pressure as ally turns rebel
In an emergency address, President Putin said that Russia was facing “treason” – without mentioning Prigozhin, a former ally, by name.“All those who consciously stood on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, stood on the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, before the law and before our people,” Putin vowed.
He also acknowledged the situation in Rostov-on-Don was difficult.
In his response – the first time Prigozhin had criticised the Russian leader directly – the Wagner boss said his troops were “patriots of our motherland” and President Putin was “deeply wrong” to talk of betrayal.
In a video posted on his Telegram channel earlier on Saturday, Prigozhin said his fighters had entered Rostov-on-Don after crossing the border from Ukraine – and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way.
Live feed from Skynews since events are unfolding:
For refernece, Putin’s full speech, as translated by Lisa Haseldine:
‘We are fighting for the life and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to be and remain Russian: a state with a 1,000-year history. This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the cohesion of all forces: unity, consolidation and responsibility. We must throw aside everything that weakens us, any strife that our external enemies can and will use to undermine us from within.
Actions that threaten our unity represent apostasy against our people, from our comrades-in-arms, now fighting at the front. This is a stab in the back of our country and our people. Such a blow was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was waging the First World War – but victory was stolen from it. Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the backs of the army and the people turned into the greatest shock, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, the loss of vast territories. Russians killed their Russian brothers. All sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces then divided the country, tore it apart and took advantage for selfish gain. We won’t let this happen again.
We will protect both our people and our statehood from any threats, including internal betrayal. And what we are faced with is precisely that: betrayal, exorbitant ambitions and personal interests that led to treason against our country, our people and the cause for which, side by side with our other units and subunits, soldiers fought and died and commanders of the Wagner Group.
Those who are trying to organize a rebellion are pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide towards defeat and ultimate capitulation. I repeat: any internal turmoil, a deadly threat to our statehood, for us as a nation, is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to protect the Fatherland from such a threat will be tough.
Everyone who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, embarked on the path of blackmail and terrorist methods will suffer inevitable punishment and answer both before the law and before our people.
Our armed forces and other state bodies have been given the necessary orders. Additional antiterrorist measures are now being introduced in Moscow and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will also be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don.
As President of Russia and Supreme Commander – as a citizen of Russia – I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order of life and security and the freedom of citizens. Those who organised and prepared the military rebellion, who took up arms against their comrades-in-arms, who betrayed Russia: they will answer for it.
And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic mistakes. I urge them to make the only right choice, to stop participating in criminal acts. I believe that we protect and defend what is dear and sacred to us. And together with our Motherland, we will overcome any trials and become even stronger.’
Given that the russian military is going to be busy with the wagner group, can Ukraine retake lost territory?Report
Probably some. More if the regular army units have to pull back.
One wonders what becomes of Crimea now.Report
All reports are that Russian forces are still well dug in. However it’s hard to imagine this not having an impact on their freedom of action and morale.Report
This is a “F around and find out” that a KGB guy like Putin should have foreseen. And clearly if anyone betrayed him, it’s how defense staff who couldn’t be bothered to field a functional army for his delusional schemes.
Let’s hope the mercenaries don’t get ahold of any tactical nuke.Report
The take I have seen is that this is a survival move by Prigozhin after attempts by Moscow to put Wagner forces under command of the ministry of defense.Report
That may have been the final straw. I Suspect t this has been simmering a while though.Report
“Delusional schemes” ? You are the one who is delusional, my poor friend. Supporting a genocidal dictator (the shelling of “rebellious provinces” for 7 years, including many civilian deaths) — and not even proud enough to admit it.
I don’t see genocide as a “horrific war crime” any more than I see the “Rape of Nanking” as a horrible war crime. That is to say, yes, war is horrible.
But own who you support, and what they do. When Zelensky sends his own troops on deliberate suicide attacks, in order to “thin out the restive provinces” — that’s also genocide.
You, sir, are cheering for one genocidal dictator to “win”. I’m not quite sure why — because Russia is bigger than the Ukraine?
If Russia wins the war, it is status quo ante.
If Ukraine wins… are we looking at nuclear armageddon? Remember, Putin knows the West wants to break up his country into a powerless China, fought over by the Powers That Be.Report
This is the problem with going to sleep. You miss out on so much!
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Translation from Google: Prigozhin says there were no proposals from Lukashenko. There were talks, but they were unsuccessful. The reports on social media are lies.Report
There is something very Italian Renaissance on a mercenary army turning on its’ patron.Report
I have no idea what’s happening in Russia, but usually Mercenary mutinies end with grievances aired, money exchanged, and softer targets promised.
The ‘other’ type of Mercenary mutiny that can yield decisive events is less a mutiny and more the treachery of switching sides. Can switch sides to the enemy you’re fighting, or switch sides to a different patron which changes the power structure on the side you’re on (usually for more money, softer targets or both).
The limited info we’re getting makes it seem more like the former than the latter. If he was switching sides, I think we would have seen some movement by elements of the Regular Army and Political allies. Seems isolated at this point.
It looks from the outside like Prigozhin may have overplayed his hand, which makes me think he’s at risk (that’d be my guess); but not impossible that a deal is struck.Report
If he got a concession that Wagner personnel will not have to sign contracts with/come under the direct command of MOD then it seems like a win, at least in the short term.Report
He’s made Putin look very weak. He could have taken over Moscow but exchanged his tactical advantage for… something. Promises that won’t be kept? Promises that his people will be put in charge of the Ministry of Defense?
We’re missing a lot of information.
For starters, is Putin very ill and cool with looking weak because he’ll be dead soon? Is Prigozhin really foolish enough to think he’ll live through making Putin look weak?Report
I would think it’s hard to see this as having been good for Putin. How bad exactly is hard to say. It seems to me Prigozhin’s power is best served by having manpower loyal to him personally that he can threaten action with but which he ever actually uses unless he has no choice. He doesn’t want to erode his strength fighting Russian police and national guard, where even if he wins he ends up so weakened someone else can now easily defeat him.Report
Problem with this is Putin has an old and reliable answer to a problem minion who has a lot of manpower personally loyal to him: assassination.Report
Normally the victim isn’t always surrounded by an army loyal to him.
On top of that assassination might be much better done after the war.Report
Perhaps but those are minor considerations. You assassinate the center figure and his support fractures and infighting commences. And killing a man surrounded by body guards is very much a KGB/FSB skill set.Report
I would think the big obstacle for Putin making a deal is that he would have to take back the “traitors” parts of his Friday night national address. He can’t willingly let a traitorous private army of 25,000 go back to Rostov and camp on the arsenal that everyone seems to think is there.
Over at LGM this morning I threw out the thought that while 25,000 men clearly couldn’t take and hold Moscow, they might be able to take and hold the Russian Southern Federal District. Especially with the rest of the Russian Army pinned down by Ukraine. And that Army being heavy on people from other outlying districts, not Moscow and St. Petersburg.
There’s something amusing about the thought that Putin’s mad adventure might not only strengthen NATO, but also break up the Russian Federation.Report
Per WaPo charges will be dropped and he is going to Belarus.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-war-news-wagner-prigozhin/Report
Yeah looks like the dream of this being huge is dead. It’s bad for Putin, but it’s not earth shattering.Report
By this afternoon, I’m mostly convinced it was all play-acting. Russia needed to get rid of the Wagner troops for reasons. Wagner takes two cities, races towards Moscow, then stops and retreats. No one gets even a stubbed toe.
So, Prigozhin gets a pardon, moves to Belarus, and goes back to running his African mercenaries and other oligarch things. The 25,000 soldiers get pardons, a modest payout, and are scattered across Russia. A couple of Russian Army generals who have already reached retirement age retire with a bump in pension.Report
Play acting wouldn’t have involved Putin backing down. One of his minions would have been made to look bad but not him personally.Report
Reading over everything I don’t buy the idea that it’s play acting. A series of self-interested plays, miscalculations and then a resolution with a mutually beneficial compromise is more plausible.
Prigozhin:
Background: Prigozhin has been a loose cannon for a while but, presumably, miscalculated how loose he could be before he lost favor with Putin. Putin soured on Prigozhin’s shenanigans and began listening to the advice of Prigozhin’s enemies within the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin’s allies within the government alterted Prigozhin that the apparatus of government had turned on him.
Stakes: Prigozhin’s enemies within the MoD, obviously with Putins acquiescence if not blessing, began moving to liquidate Warner. The Warner military would be absorbed into the Russian Army and Prigozhin faced losing his revenue streams, his influence and, likely, his life.
Gambit: Prigozhin, either through advance contingency planning or through being well connected to the military, had already or was quickly able to lay down a plan to seize Rostov-on-Don, then the southern military command and then head out towards Moscow blitzing past sympathetic or apathetic internal security forces. It was serious, the oligarch rats began deserting the ship and Putin himself allegedly fled Moscow or, at least, moved his family out.
The fail: Prigozhin’s plan clearly assumed that more sympathetic or neutral elements among the military and the oligarchy would support his move against Putin’s crew in the MoD. He also may have miscalculated how quickly Putin could rally support to his Moscow defenses via air-lifting troops in. Critical persons didn’t flip or remain neutral. Moscow, despite Prigozhin’s speed of advance, became too hard a target.
The Situation prior to the deal: Prigozhin had Rostov-on-Don firmly in hand with significant supplies and a significant well-trained force behind Russian lines. Putin could not simply erase him but Prigozhin didn’t believe he could take Moscow, or, he didn’t think he could prosecute a genuine coup even if he took Moscow. The air force was beginning to pummel Warner forces. The most plausible outcome for Prigozhin at this stage would be a bloody destructive fight inside Russia eventually concluding with Prigozhin and his allies being bloodily and painfully executed by an enraged and bloodied, but still in power, Putin.
Putin:
Background: Putin’s been in power a long time and has used Prigozhin as a useful cats paw and wild card within the Ministry of Defenses hierarchies of power. A powerful singular military figure has always presented the most likely vector of a challenge of Putin’s hold on power so he has always viewed the MoD with a high degree of suspicious and has always acted to keep it factionalized and infighting. The War on Ukraine, though, has strained everything and Putin (or his people in the MoD) used Prigozhin’s forced in Bakhmut that left Warner discredited, weakened and left Prigozhin enraged and isolated. Clearly lines of communication between Prigozhin and Putin broke down and Putins’ favor drifted away. As with all Ceasars, communication from ground level to leadership grows strained as toadies and courtiers interfere to shade information to their own benefit. Putin grew disenchanted with Prigozhin and convinced that he could be discarded and Warners assets seized.
Gambit: Putin allowed or blessed a plan to liquidate Warner and divert its manpower and assets to his favored toadies in the Ministry of Defense. Whether Putin planned for Prigozhin to be merely marginalized or liquidated is unknown and unknowable but for Prigozhin the former is simply the latter in slow motion.
The fail: As, again, with most Ceasars, the toadies and courtiers over estimated their abilities and underestimated the practical skills and connections of Prigozhin and his allies. Prigozhin became aware of their moves and acted to launch a mutiny aimed at forcing Putin to liquidate them instead. Prigozhin seized logistical control of the entire Ukrainian front via seizing Rostov-on-Don and launched a military column at Moscow. The best we can say for Putin and his toadies is they managed to weaken that force, airlift in enough manpower to Moscow and keep enough MoD and Oligarch assets in line to prevent the mutiny from blossoming into a coup or a situation where Putin was forced to yield to Prigozhin.
The Situation prior to the deal: Putin and his minions had prevented catastrophe, but only just barely. Prigozhin didn’t have the ability to consummate his mutiny to a successful conclusion. This was thin comfort for Putin as he didn’t have the ability to swiftly and decisively eliminate Warner and Prigozhin without massively diverting resourced and disrupting his resource chains to Ukraine in the teeth of a well-equipped Ukrainian offensive. Putin was looking at either yielding to Prigozhin’s demands or else bloodily defeating Prigozhin at the cost of incalculable losses in Ukraine as his lines there imploded.
The compromise: Putin gives Prigozhin his life, exile to Belarus and a blanket pardon to all Warner elements who participated in the mutiny. In exchange he avoids a devastating conflict and likely flat out loss of the War in Ukraine. He basically gained a return to the status quos plus the liquidation of Warner at a huge cost to his reputation. Prigozhin presumably keeps his fortune, escapes to Belarus and stops drinking tea and stays away from windows from now on. If this deal seems slanted in Putin’s favor it is. Prigozhin’s gambit failed to achieve its goals. Putin was critically weakened but not decisively so. Putin’s toadies remain in control though presumably massively discredited and Putin himself has suffered a massive blow to his reputation but not necessarily a massive blow to his war effort. If you go for the King you had best not miss. Prigozhin missed.Report
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I imagine windows and buildings and gravity all function roughly the same in Belarus as Russia?
Not entirely clear to me who’s going where and under what conditions. Just Prigozhin? Prigozhin and the mutineers?
If Prigozhin and mutineers, then not entirely sure that Wagner repositioned on the northern border is a great outcome for Ukraine.Report
Either way if I am Prigozhin I am going to attempt to defect at my first opportunity. Maybe this whole thing was an elaborate way to try and extricate himself from a no win situation.Report
That makes some sense. This has a “made up as he went along” feel to it.Report
Sure… depends on whether he’s going alone or with his army. If alone, I don’t think he ‘defects’ in the traditional sense, rather slips away to Africa where he attempts to doge assassins and radiation poisoning the rest of his life.Report
I’m not even sure how much it matters if he has his army or not. I mean, if you thought you had a price on your head, how safe would you feel surrounded by men who have already established that they are willing to kill for money? That said, I agree dodging assassins in Africa absolutely sounds plausible.Report
Kinda far fetched, but in the back of my mind, if he’s with his troops it feels like a ruse de guerre where there’s now a ‘rogue’ mercenary corps outside of Russian jurisdiction on the northern border with Ukraine and the Baltics…Report
Not impossible but I would hope Putin would be a little smarter than that. If the goal was to add a more credible conventional threat from Belarus he could have done it without broadcasting that his grip on power may be slipping, even if only a bit.
One possibility is that pressures inherent to having both the official military working with nominally independent private forces resulted in a work becoming a shoot. No one knows how authentic Prigozhin’s outbursts that have been going on for months now actually are, or even who the intended audience for them is.Report
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/24/2177435/-OMG-Lukashenko-might-actually-have-saved-all-the-evil-butts
This analysis strikes me as highly plausible.Report