97th Oscars Projections: And The Oscar Goes To…

It feels like forever ago, way back last spring, when I first took a deep dive into the potential Best Picture contenders for the 97th Academy Awards. At the time, half of the eventual nominees were already on my radar, including what would ultimately become the top two frontrunners for the prize. Fourteen of the films I considered back then would go on to land nominations in other categories, proving that super early speculation isn’t entirely futile.

But just as telling as the films I had pegged early on are the ones I didn’t see coming. Half of the final Best Picture lineup wasn’t even on my board, a testament to how unpredictable and fluid this year’s race turned out to be. That unpredictability wasn’t just confined to which films would get nominated, it extended all the way to the fight for the win. Over the past year, my #1 pick shifted three times, reflecting just how tight and ever-changing the competition was – a far cry from last year when I only had to switch my predicted winner once. And now, for the first time since at least 2021, we’re heading into Oscar night with a genuine debate over which film will take home the biggest prize of them all.

The screwball comedy Anora, a wild Cinderella story turned adventure through the streets of New York, pulled off an incredible feat at the Critics Choice Awards by winning Best Picture and nothing else. Then, it steamrolled through the Directors, Producers, and Writers Guild awards, positioning itself as the clear frontrunner for the big prize. But its inability to secure wins at the Golden Globes, the Astra Awards, the all-important Screen Actors Guild, and even additional Critics Choice categories has made Anora feel like a frontrunner with shaky legs heading into the Super Bowl of awards shows. It’s locked in razor-thin battles for Actress, Director, and possibly Screenplay, leaving very little room for error.

Meanwhile, Conclave, the religious-political thriller that turned into a box office sensation, came surging back in the latter half of the industry phase. It took Best Film at the BAFTAs and, more crucially, won the SAG Ensemble award – the single most important prize for gauging industry-wide support among the biggest branch in the Academy. However, despite these key victories, Conclave has mostly been limited to wins in Screenplay and Editing, making its path to a Best Picture victory a tightrope walk. For it to pull off the upset, it needs a near-flawless Oscar night, and for Anora to make a key stumble or two.

This sets up a thrilling showdown between two of my favorite films from last year. A screwball comedy that critics and younger audiences have adored versus a gripping box office thriller that resonated with older, more mainstream viewers. The scrappy American indie from a veteran indie filmmaker versus the polished British studio film that raked in over $100 million worldwide.

My prediction? While I’d personally prefer to see Conclave take the win, on paper, Anora has the statistical edge. But this is a genuine nail-biter that will be decided category by category, with both camps holding their breath as the must-win awards roll in later in the night. If I had to choose, I’d rather be Anora, but Conclave walks into Oscar night with all the late momentum.

The Brutalist, which I had pegged as the likely winner for the longest stretch of the season, now finds itself relegated to spoiler status. Its competitiveness in Actor, Director, Cinematography, and Score keeps it in play as a potential wildcard; one that could either pull off a shocking Best Picture win or act as a disruptor, preventing one of the top two contenders from sealing the deal.

Meanwhile, Emilia Perez, which stormed into the race with 13 nominations before its brutal audience scores and mounting controversy caught up to it, is now locked in for a Supporting Actress win and in a strong position to take Best Song. However, its bid for International Feature is anything but certain, as it faces a fierce battle against the surging I’m Still Here.

Speaking of I’m Still Here, the Best Actress race has turned into a true three-way showdown between Anora’s Mikey Madison, The Substance’s Demi Moore, and I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres. There’s a world in which any of the three take the win; and whoever does could end up shifting the momentum in a way that impacts Best Picture, possibly opening the door for an upset.

Elsewhere, Wicked, boasting ten nominations and fresh off a Best Picture win at the Astra Awards (plus that stunning Best Director upset at Critics Choice), is primed to clean up in a few tech categories. Dune: Part Two is also positioned to rack up a couple of those. A Complete Unknown is pushing for a surprise win in Best Actor, while Nickel Boys is holding out hope for a massive upset in Adapted Screenplay.

Unlike the last couple of ceremonies, I’m predicting a more even distribution of wins this year, with no film taking home more than three or four Oscars – tops. It’s a fitting outcome for what has been the most fluid and unpredictable awards season in at least a decade.

Below, you’ll find my predictions for all 23 categories, broken down into predicted winners, potential upsets, dark horses, and nominees that I just don’t see having a shot. For full transparency, I’ve also included my personal rooting interests so you can compare my preferences to my actual predictions.

Before I wrap up, I wanted to leave you with a quick note. In past years, I’ve started my Oscar projections just weeks after the previous ceremony, diving right back into the next race almost immediately. This year, due to personal and professional commitments, I’ll be taking a much longer break before diving into my projections for the 98th Academy Awards; likely not until later in the fall.

But until then, I hope everyone has a fantastic Oscar Sunday, and I wish Conan O’Brien the best of luck as he takes on hosting duties for the first time. I’ll be celebrating at the Tampa Theatre’s big Oscar party, hoping for surprises, memorable speeches, and a night that truly honors the best in film. May the most deserving performances and films take home the gold!

 

Best Picture Prediction: Anora

Upset Alert: Conclave

Dark Horse: The Brutalist

Just Happy To Be Nominated: A Complete Unknown; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Perez; I’m Still Here; Nickel Boys; The Substance; Wicked

If I Had A Vote: 1. Wicked; 2. Conclave; 3. The Brutalist; 4. Dune: Part Two; 5. Nickel Boys; 6. Anora; 7. The Substance; 8. I’m Still Here; 9. Emilia Perez; 10. A Complete Unknown

 

Best Director Prediction: Sean Baker (Anora)

Upset Alert: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

Dark Horse: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Coralie Fargeat (The Substance); James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

If I Had A Vote: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

 

Best Actor Prediction: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Upset Alert: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Dark Horse: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing); Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

If I Had A Vote: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

 

Best Actress Prediction: Mikey Madison (Anora)

Upset Alert: Demi Moore (The Substance)

Dark Horse: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked); Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)

If I Had A Vote: Demi Moore (The Substance)

 

Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Upset Alert: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

Dark Horse: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Yura Borisov (Anora); Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

If I Had A Vote: Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

 

Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)

Upset Alert: Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Dark Horse: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist); Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

If I Had A Vote: Ariana Grande (Wicked)

 

Best Original Screenplay Prediction: Anora

Upset Alert: A Real Pain

Dark Horse: The Substance

Just Happy To Be Nominated: September 5; The Brutalist

If I Had A Vote: The Brutalist

 

Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: Conclave

Upset Alert: Nickel Boys

Dark Horse: Sing Sing

Just Happy To Be Nominated: A Complete Unknown; Emilia Perez

If I Had A Vote: Conclave

 

Best Animated Feature Prediction: The Wild Robot

Upset Alert: Flow

Dark Horse: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Inside Out 2; Memoir Of A Snail

If I Had A Vote: The Wild Robot

 

Best Animated Short Prediction: Wander To Wonder

Upset Alert: Yuck!

Dark Horse: Beautiful Men

Just Happy To Be Nominated: In The Shadow Of The Cypress; Magic Candies

If I Had A Vote: Wander To Wonder

 

Best International Feature Prediction: I’m Still Here

Upset Alert: Emilia Perez

Dark Horse: Flow

Just Happy To Be Nominated: The Girl With The Needle; The Seed Of The Sacred Fig

If I Had A Vote: Flow

 

Best Live Action Short Prediction: A Lien

Upset Alert: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Dark Horse: The Last Ranger

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Anuja; I’m Not A Robot

If I Had A Vote: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

 

Best Documentary Feature Prediction: Porcelain War

Upset Alert: No Other Land

Dark Horses: Black Box Diaries; Sugarcane

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Soundtrack To A Coup d’Etat

If I Had A Vote: Soundtrack To A Coup d’Etat

 

Best Documentary Short Prediction: The Only Girl In The Orchestra

Upset Alert: I Am Ready Warden

Dark Horse: Incident

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Death By Numbers; Instruments Of A Beating Heart

If I Had A Vote: Incident

Best Original Song Prediction: “El Mal” (Emilia Perez)

Upset Alert: “The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight)

Dark Horse: “Like A Bird” (Sing Sing)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: “Never Too Late” (Elton John: Never Too Late); “Mi Camino” (Emilia Perez)

If I Had A Vote: “Like A Bird” (Sing Sing)

 

Best Original Score Prediction: The Brutalist

Upset Alert: Conclave

Dark Horses: Emilia Perez; The Wild Robot

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Wicked

If I Had A Vote: The Brutalist

 

Best Sound Prediction: Dune: Part Two

Upset Alert: Wicked

Dark Horse: A Complete Unknown

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Emilia Perez; The Wild Robot

If I Had A Vote: Wicked

 

Best Editing Prediction: Conclave

Upset Alert: Anora

Dark Horses: Wicked; Emilia Perez

Just Happy To Be Nominated: The Brutalist

If I Had A Vote: Wicked

 

Best Cinematography Prediction: The Brutalist

Upset Alert: Dune: Part Two

Dark Horses: Maria; Nosferatu

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Emilia Perez

If I Had A Vote: Nosferatu

 

Best Visual Effects Prediction: Dune: Part Two

Upset Alert: Wicked

Dark Horse: Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Alien: Romulus; Better Man

If I Had A Vote: Dune: Part Two

 

 

Best Costume Design Prediction: Wicked

Upset Alert: Conclave

Dark Horse: Nosferatu

Just Happy To Be Nominated: A Complete Unknown; Gladiator II

If I Had A Vote: Wicked

 

Best Hair & Makeup Prediction: The Substance

Upset Alert: Wicked

Dark Horse: Emilia Perez

Just Happy To Be Nominated: A Different Man; Nosferatu

If I Had A Vote: The Substance