With Bashar al-Assad reportedly in Moscow, the 13-year Syrian civil war and 50+ year rule of the al-Assad family dictatorship has ended.
So, how did that happen?
From Al Jazeera:
Who did this?
Named Operation Deterrence of Aggression, this offensive was fought by several armed Syrian opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by allied Turkish-backed factions.HTS – led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani – is the largest and most organised, having ruled the governorate of Idlib for years before this offensive.
Other groups that took part in the operation were the National Front for Liberation, Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Izza and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement, as well as Turkish-backed factions that fall under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army.
Has all of Syria fallen?
Probably. Although opposition fighters did not enter Lattakia and Tartous, coastal governorates – seen as al-Assad strongholds.The rebels advanced quickly – within days, they took Hama and Homs, a city once dubbed “Capital of the Revolution” during the early years of the war.
On Saturday, Deraa – the birthplace of the 2011 uprising – also slipped from government control.
The Syrian army announced it was “redeploying and repositioning” in the province and nearby Sweida, but that seemed to come to nought.
The United Kingdom-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), said Syrian troops were withdrawing from positions in Quneitra, near the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.
Why did al-Assad fall so fast?
Syria was struggling as its economy tanked, reportedly propped up largely by an illicit trade in the psychoactive drug Captagon.Al-Assad became hugely unpopular as people found it harder and harder to survive, including his soldiers, the majority of whom did not want to fight for him.
Soldiers and police officers were reportedly abandoning their posts, handing over their weapons, and fleeing ahead of the opposition advance.
Militarily as well, the al-Assad regime has been weak for years, relying on Russian and Iranian military support to prop it up.
But, analysts say, Russia is bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine and Iran and their Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been damaged by Israeli attacks – they could not come to the rescue of the faltering Syrian army.
Hard for Russia to keep their favorite pet in power with all their troops (and money) being fed into the wood chipper that is Ukraine. Assad couldn’t even rely on Wagner any more.Report
This strikes me as a weird take. I don’t think anyone should shed a lot of tears for Assad. But the most likely result of his defeat will be to put al-Qaeds Lite in control of most of the country. How can there possibly be any crowing about that?Report
So you like one dictator propping up another dictator? Good to know.Report
What about my comment would make you say that?
You’d think peace and prosperity immediately followed the fall of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Or for that matter the Shah or any other middle eastern dictatorship that’s been overthrown by religious zealots, typically with outside help. I’d say the burden is on those celebrating to explain why this will turn out differently. It could well go from bad to worse.Report
The on the ground alternative are the mess we now have – which can be engineered in a number of ways or the mess that was Assad. You seem to think that the mess that is open to shaping is somehow inferior to Assad remaining in power, propped up by Putin.Report
No, the possibility exists that the new mess becomes worse than Assad.
It’s just dumb to do cheerleading and treat foreign policy like sports teams that we root for.Report
Funny, but that’s how the GOP loves to frame it.Report
What? The cheerleading? That’s basically the lowest common denominator of talking about foreign policy… so yeah, it’s dumb when R’s do it and when D’s do it. I don’t think it’s a partisan thing.Report
The GOP said the exact same thing.Report
What and who Julani will be, should he take full control of Syria (and there are a lot of competing interests who might oppose that, including the people who helped him defeat Assad: the Turks, the Israelis, and us), there’s no telling whether he’ll be al Qaeda-lite (important to note that Al Qaeda in Iraq, the group he was part of, is pretty different from the bin Laden-led group), or the politician he’s been over the last few years, purging the extremists from his own group with the purpose of building a larger coalition that extends beyond his base of Islamists. Will he be a friend to the people who helped him get to where he is (which, again, includes us), or will he turn his now well-organized, well-trained, and well-equipped military against the hands that fed him? His history of moving from group to group, alliance to alliance, makes it really difficult to tell.Report
It’s certainly possible he will turn out to be willing to compromise, turn the country into something better than it was before.
My perhaps understated view remains one of deep skepticism towards the people that come in off the battlefield and take over these countries. At this point their track record speaks for itself.Report
Oh, I agree, and we don’t have a great track record in supporting people who turn out to be good leaders. It’s gonna be a mess, I think (see my extremely long paragraph below).Report
I honestly don’t know how this will work out for Syria (I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on Julani, a guy who’s name I only learned the other day), what I am happy about is that this represents a loss of geopolitical influence for Russia, something Putin actually cares about (unlike all the Russians that have died). I think Russia’s defeat is important for maintaining peace around the world, and that’s why I’m happy.Report
I get celebrating the downfall of Assad, who was truly evil (the videos and photos from Sednaya are heartbreaking and infuriating), but judging by the social media discourse, I don’t think people understand the potential far-reaching implications of this. Obviously this is a big defeat for Russia and Iran, neither of whom will likely take the reduction in regional influence lightly. While HTS’ offensive was able to move so fast in large part because HTS had spent years developing relationships with the leaders of minority groups (Christians, Druze, Kurds, etc.), militarily, it is heavily reliant on groups with very different motivations: Islamist groups, Kurds, Turkish-backed militia, etc. Those Islamic groups will want to have a say in the shape the government takes, and its actions, while the Kurds and Turkish SNA are already fighting. And let’s not forget who Julani is: part of the Iraqi resistance (so no friend of the U.S.), including as part of the Iraqi resistance group that became ISIS, and then Al Qaeda in Iraq, so he’s no friend of the U.S., and he’s buddies with some of the worst of the Islamist leaders in the region, but more importantly, he’s willing to side with whomever he thinks best serves his needs at whatever time, which makes the power vacuum and competing interests within his own coalition all the more unpredictable. And then there’s everyone else: Israel has already invaded, and is bombing in several parts of the country, including Damascus; Turkey not only has its own militia in Julani’s coalition (who, as I’ve mentioned, are already skirmishing with the Kurds), but also has not been afraid to use its own military to suppress the Kurds in Syria; the U.S. not only has a military presence, but will almost certainly want to divvy out the oil fields to Western companies (as will other western states). So it’s likely to become part of the broader Israeli war, the Turkish-Kurd conflict, and there will be American forces, with American business interests, on the ground in a country led by people who don’t like the U.S. so much, and will definitely not want to give up those oil fields. It is already becoming a mess, and has the potential to become a mess with global consequences.Report
Good summary; it’s just hard to see how all the regional cross pressures coalesce into something stable, something we continue to call Syria.Report
Seeing like a State idle thought: Borders used to change somewhat organically following significant events.
That had upsides.Report
All borders are fungible and frangible.Report
And the SNA and the Turkish army are advancing on Kobani, a name that anyone paying attention to this conflict in 2014/15 will remember well. The Kurds will of course not only put resources into keeping territory, but will try to pull political strings as well, which will put the fragility of the rebel (now ruling?) coalition to the test. The Kurds will also try to appeal to the West, with whom they’ve worked closely for decades, though the U.S. has shown a willingness to abandon the Kurds in favor of Turkey.Report
That’s where the US’s position on this has been incoherent and bound for failure from the beginning. If we wanted to act in a truly cold, realpolitik kind of way the obvious proxy for us is our NATO ally, distasteful as Turkey has become over the last 15 years.
Instead we’ve played this game where we pretend there’s actually a force for democracy in Syria, as opposed to, at absolute best, a force for Kurdish secession and/or broad autonomy, as if Turkey would ever tolerate it. Ultimately it’s how we’ve ended up aiding Sunni Islamists.Report
So long, Bashir! Don’t let the door hit you in the Assad on the way out!Report
Good riddance to Assad. Here the dice go rolling again in Syria.Report
The Syrian Intelligence services were apparently organized with the help of Eichmann’s right-handed man. That might explain the brutality.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alois_Brunner#Postwar_flight_and_escape_to_SyriaReport
The rebel forces are making the right noises, so I’m cautiously optimistic. No talk about God and Islam but a lot about forging a new Syria. There has been recognition that women have rights and they vowed not to tell women how to dress.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-rebels-tap-transitional-pm-vow-not-to-tell-women-how-to-dress/Report
Ironically there is potential because they’d have to be pretty fishin awful to beat Assad.Report