97th Oscars Projections: The Awards Season Kickoff

We’re coming up on a week since the 2024 U.S Presidential election, and with the election season over it’s now on to the kickoff to awards season. Almost every hopeful contender has been screened to someone by now, there’s FYC screening events starting to take place, there’s screeners being sent out to mail boxes and inboxes, and studios are updating their campaign websites. By the end of the month and into early December, we’ll get the top ten films chosen by the American Film Institute and the National Board of Review, the Astra Awards will have announced their nominees and have held their awards ceremony, and both the Critics Choice Association and the Golden Globes will have announce their nominations. And that’s not accounting for the various early regional critics groups’ awards announcements.

Back in the Spring I made mention that there was a big elephant in the room for this awards season in that we were in an election year. The fact is that elections’ results have, and will, affect what Academy voters’ tastes are like for the season. In the middle of campaigning starting to heat up, industry voters will also have on the background the news of the transition from a Biden administration to the return of a Trump administration. During the first Trump go-around, the Academy was very “resistance” coded, which lead to films that had something to say about race, identity, and class to win the top prize. Now after four years of the Academy being won over by crowd pleasers and one of the biggest blockbusters of the 2020s, I suspect we will see them start to be won over by films with something to say on certain subjects.

Because of this I still tend to lean towards thinking the massive immigrant period epic that is The Brutalist will win Best Picture, but my confidence in saying that is so low that I’d rather bet on a Democratic comeback in the 2026 midterms. Unlike last year, this remains an incredibly unpredictable race with arguably at least half of the potential field of nominees still to be determined. After my chosen frontrunner, I am only confident in Anora, Dune: Part Two, and Conclave as extremely likely to get in. After those, I think Emilia Perez is likely – though the movie’s more problematic elements could prove to cause some issues for it.

That leaves us with five slots. At the moment I think Sing Sing still gets in after critics and industry screenings make sure it gets the eyeballs, and I think Trump’s election helps Nickel Boys get in regardless of the tough subject matter. Both of these movies are the kind of prime meat that certain voters will be hungry for in the middle of news of Trump’s coming second presidency.

That leads me to a movie that I had at #13 back in the Spring, and back then I was called a madman for even having it on the board much less three spots from a nomination- Wicked. Back at the start of the year I contemplated that if enough festival films, tech players, and populist contenders dropped off, that Universal’s grand musical adaptation could make a push to get into the slate of ten. With the perfect storm of things happening, I am now ready to predict it getting into Best Picture. Perhaps it flames out like past would-be musical contenders have (In The Heights, The Color Purple, etc), but early reactions to the movie are great with buzz for it in several categories, including acting, and the story’s message on the treatment of certain minority groups could be bait for voters given the political environment.

And that leaves us with two final slots and a ton of “on the bubble” and long shot contenders. I’ve presented all the potential 25 nominees below via three tiers of probability, but at the moment I am not as confident anymore that Blitz or Gladiator II are getting in, thanks to “good, not great” reviews and reactions. So that leaves me with so many movies I could argue for at the moment. But for now, admittedly as placeholders, I’m going with Searchlight Picture’s top two contenders in the surging A Real Pain and the yet-to-be-screened A Complete Unknown.

I cannot overstate enough how wide open those final two slots, or really all bottom five slots, continue to be. This isn’t like last year when I barely budged in any of my predicted ten; I’ve already shifted this thing around in several ways over the last eight-plus months. Starting in the next update, in mid-December, I should have a significantly better picture of how this field is narrowing, and I’ll also be able to start looking at the other above-the-line categories. Things are about to get really interesting.

Tier 1: The Heavyweight Contenders

01. The Brutalist (+0 Since The Last Update)

02. Anora (+0 Since The Last Update)

03. Dune: Part Two (+0 Since The Last Update)

04. Conclave (+1 Since The Last Update)

05. Emilia Perez (-1 Since The Last Update)

06. Sing Sing (+2 Since The Last Update)

07. Nickel Boys (+2 Since The Last Update)

08. Wicked (+6 Since The Last Update)

09. A Real Pain (+6 Since The Last Update)

10. A Complete Unknown (+1 Since The Last Update)

Tier 2: The “On The Bubble” Contenders

11. September 5 (+1 Since The Last Update)

12. Saturday Night (-6 Since The Last Update)

13. The Wild Robot (+0 Since The Last Update)

14. The Substance (+6 Since The Last Update)

15. Gladiator II (-5 Since The Last Update)

16. Blitz (-9 Since The Last Update)

17. Nosferatu (+4 Since The Last Update)

18. Challengers (+0 Since The Last Update)

19. Queer (-2 Since The Last Update)

20. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (-1 Since The Last Update)

Tier 3: The Long Shots With A Slim Path

21. Juror #2 (+2 Since The Last Update)

22. The Piano Lesson (-6 Since The Last Update)

23. The Room Next Door (Returning To The Board Since The Last Update)

24. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig (Returning To The Board Since The Last Update)

25. The Apprentice (+0 Since The Last Update)

Off The Board Since The Last Update (For Now?): Here; Nightbitch