Missing the Forest for the Trees on Springfield

Michael Siegel

Michael Siegel is an astronomer living in Pennsylvania. He blogs at his own site, and has written a novel.

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46 Responses

  1. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    “Punching up” has returned.

    “It’s okay to do this when *I* do it” doesn’t have moral resonance outside of the ingroup, for some reason.Report

    • pillsy in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      The “punching up”/”punching down” distinction is generally frivolous.

      Then again, we didn’t go from shitposts about Vance to Kamala Harris telling 67 million debate viewers that Vance boned a couch, followed by Tim Walz doubling down and saying that Vance also sodomized a divan, with high-profile Democratic think-tankers promising to pay thousands of dollars for video of Vance getting frisky with the upholstery.Report

    • DavidTC in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      Do you really think jokes about politicians and couches are equivalent to claiming that a minority is eating pets?

      Can we actually just look at the effects of those two lies to figure out if there is a distinction?

      There are armed vigilante hate groups that are hard to call anything but Na.zis, even if they call themselves Proud Boys, that have descended on Springfield Ohio, looking for Haitian refugees that have eaten cats.

      Absolutely nothing has happened to JD Vance. The lie wasn’t even something that would turn up the rhetoric, it wasn’t the sort of lie that would cause violence to start with.

      Moreover, in a hypothetical where the lies were the same… Are the powerful not in a much better position to refute lies then the powerless? JD Vance has a national platform, anytime he wants one. Haitian refugees don’t.

      Also, making up lies about a group of people is fundamentally different than making up lies about one person. Lies about entire groups of people, especially lies about the ‘bad behavior’ of groups of people, have been responsible for some of the worst behavior of human beings in human history. Lies about individuals generally only impact individuals.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      Jaybird pompously pontificates from his alleged perch of moral superiority once again.

      This is a blood libel, pure and simple. This is not about punching up or punching down. This is about a baseless attack against a community of vulnerable individuals in order to get the worst of the worst out voting in November. The fact that you can’t just say or see that is a tell.Report

      • CJColucci in reply to Saul Degraw
        Ignored
        says:

        Calling it a “tell” suggests an attempt to conceal something we need the tell to see.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Saul Degraw
        Ignored
        says:

        It’s not moral superiority, Saul. It’s a deliberate communication that *YOUR* moral superiority is not recognized.

        You’re down here with me.Report

        • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
          Ignored
          says:

          That’s how sociopaths think.

          That everyone is corrupt, everyone is venal, and anyone who says otherwise is smug and hypocritical.

          Which is really just a convenient way of excusing their own behavior, the way that poorly developed adolescents will say that everyone does it.

          Like a powerful politician and his horde of followers tormenting a hated outgroup- well, that’s just how everyone behaves amirite, and so it is just hypocrisy to think that we all don’t feel the same way.

          Except- No, Jaybird, not everyone acts this way. its just Trump and his followers who do it.

          And yes, people who slander and libel groups of people ARE morally inferior to the rest of us.Report

  2. pillsy
    Ignored
    says:

    Loomer’s pretty friendly with Nick Fuentes (there’s recent video of her toasting the “hostile takeover of the Republican Party” with him) and there’s older video of her at an alt-right party trying to pick up a dude there by bragging about her “Ahshkenazi IQ”… so yeah not so sure she’ll really be keeping the Holocaust deniers at bay.Report

  3. Brandon Berg
    Ignored
    says:

    Like most medium- and small-sized towns, it has been hurting economically. Several business have opened up there and found themselves in need of labor.

    Without commenting on the rest of the post, these sentences seem contradictory. Generally when we say that a town is hurting economically, we mean that it has high unemployment and few job opportunities. Employers having more business than they can find workers for is generally a phenomenon associated with an economic boom.

    Based on BLS data, it seems to be doing okay; the unemployment rate is a bit above the national average, but not that bad, and seems inconsistent with employers having a great deal of difficulty filling job openings that don’t require specialized skills. The entire state of Florida has an overall 3.3% unemployment rate.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to Brandon Berg
      Ignored
      says:

      Like many cities/counties in the extended Rust Belt that are the size of Springfield and its surrounding county, population peaked in the 1970 census and has declined in every census since. Wikipedia’s economy summary says the city lost 22,000 industrial jobs in the 1990s as facilities closed or relocated. The usual story in that situation is the population shrinks and gets older as younger workers and people with skills that can find employment elsewhere leave. Springfield seems to have avoided the catastrophic collapse of its tax base that sometimes happens in that situation.Report

      • DensityDuck in reply to Michael Cain
        Ignored
        says:

        Is it an eds-and-meds thing, where an urban center sets up a bunch of medical facilities as well as the technical schools to train the nurses to work in them, the medical schools to teach the doctors to run them, the detox centers to provide the addict-to-sobriety-volunteer pathway to find customers for them, and gets the state and federal governments to pay for all of this (with Medicaid and Medicare)?Report

    • Michael Siegel in reply to Brandon Berg
      Ignored
      says:

      I think my editing obscured my meaning. It was hurting economically. But in the last few years, some businesses have relocated there, creating, ironically, a labor shortage.Report

    • DavidTC in reply to Brandon Berg
      Ignored
      says:

      Honestly, looking at BLS data from 2021, it didn’t look like much has changed at all since 2021, which is, from what I understand, when this started.

      Unemployment has gone down a little, but that’s just how it’s worked everywhere. And the population doesn’t appear to have much changed… If you had shown me the data without telling me what was happening, I would have just assumed it was normal population growth.

      … And then I stopped looking at 2021-2024, and looked at 2014-2024.

      Seriously, I urge everyone to do that, you will see a town that really was slowly losing its labor force, until it suddenly wasn’t. It dropped from 66,000 to around 63,000. It actually gets down the 61,000 but a chunk of that is covid, which complicates all this, but it was clearly dropping rapidly even before that. And then the refugees came in, and bumped it back up by a couple of thousand.

      And unlike what people might expect, unemployment went down, not up, probably because these were a lot of young people.

      I think people might be exaggerating the decline that the town was in before all this, which is easy to exaggerate because of covid, but, the future didn’t look good for this place, long term. And now it does. Mostly because it now looks like normal population growth that you would expect from a town, and not slow decline.Report

    • Chris in reply to Brandon Berg
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      says:

      Looking at the unemployment rate won’t tell you much about the economy of the former industrial towns of the rustbelt, except perhaps during economic downturns, during which they’re less resilient than average (their unemployment rate will tend to drop lower and take longer to recover than the country as a whole). You have to look at population decline (something like 30% since the 70s, in Springfield), the median income (Springfield’s has dropped dramatically since the 90s), the average age of the population since young people leave decaying towns (Springfield’s is significantly older than the national average), etc.

      I remember visiting Springfield from the mid-90s, when it already had the look of a dying rust belt town. My sister went to college there in the first years of this century, and the couple times I visited then, it looked even worse. I haven’t been in about 20 years, and apparently after hundreds of millions of dollars in investment, thee downtown area looks and feels nicer than it did even back in the early 90s, but the population is still older, less educated, and poorer than it was, and they’re not bringing in jobs that keep young people there, so the workforce, when they do add jobs, has to come from elsewhere.Report

  4. Matt Bernius
    Ignored
    says:

    fWIW, now that more investigation into the claims is going on, it also appears that the size of the migration has been significantly inflated.

    it looks like it’s closer to 12,000 and, while legal Haitian migrants make up a large portion of the influx, there are other immigrants as well.

    I am doing some digging into this for a OTB article.

    I agree on all other pointsReport

    • Slade the Leveller in reply to Matt Bernius
      Ignored
      says:

      I’ve seen 5K. But in this country, who’s majesty allows people credulous enough to believe people are grilling and eating pets the franchise, who needs to actually substantiate anything?Report

  5. Saul Degraw
    Ignored
    says:

    Let’s look at messages being passed out in Springfield. The pseudo-Germanic font is a revealing touch: https://x.com/nlanard/status/1835046358488666458

    The whole thing is a blood libel from sad and pathetic but dangerous men. I’m only a Long Island born and raised and Baghdad on the Bay residing (((guy))) but I would think a normal politician would be proud of the immigrants revitalizing Springfield. Plus they might bring tasty food but this is just me.Report

  6. LeeEsq
    Ignored
    says:

    I am going to dispute the nut job fringe of both parties always existed comment. There is a Further Left nut job fringe in the United States but they make it clear that they want nothing to do with the Democratic Party and hate it. in fact, most of the Further Left sees the Democratic Party as a bigger threat to what they want rather than the Republicans. It never occurs to them that the People might disagree with them on just about everything. In contrast, the Radical Right has associated with the Republicans since the mid-20th century and waged a very long campaign to slowly take the Republican Party over from the liberal and centrist Republicans of the old Eastern establishment. The nut job fringe of the Right has become the Republican Party.Report

    • Dark Matter in reply to LeeEsq
      Ignored
      says:

      At the moment, we’re getting more political violence from the Right than the Left. This is a relatively new thing because of Trump’s cult.

      The next time a city riots, there is a good chance that it will be from a left issue. We’re supposed to pretend that the rioters aren’t holding law and order hostage.

      The whole phrase “Sister Souljah moment” was a thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sister_Souljah_moment

      We’re supposed to pretend that the rioters and the protesters are two distinct groups with nothing to do with each other AND ALSO that the same thing will happen again if the protesters demands aren’t met.Report

  7. LeeEsq
    Ignored
    says:

    My theory and it is mine, and going to be unpopular, is that maintaining a small l-liberal society always required a certain amount of ideological management. There were somethings that simply could not be said in polite company. Part of the old gatekeeper system in the media was ideological management and making sure the fringes of the Right and the Left stayed marginalized. Europeans, Canadians, Australians, and New Zealanders managed to do this a bit harder than Americans. The Enoch Powells and Jean Marie Le Pens were kept more under control than the George Wallace’s and other fire breathers but even in the United States somethings were beyond the pale. Lee Atwater’s famous quote about the n-word and dog whistles is an example of this.

    Maybe there have always been a lot of wackos out there. The mid-20th century small l-liberal consensus could have been more than illusory and the Internet is just revealing how many nut jobs exist. Maybe the mid-20th century media landscape and gate keepers helped maintain a liberal consensus that is now impossible to have.Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to LeeEsq
      Ignored
      says:

      This is what I mean when I keep saying “Censorship is good, actually.”

      That as with the paradox of tolerance, in order for everyone to enjoy a liberal society, there have to be boundaries set around actions and speech.

      The usual objections are things like “who decides” on these boundaries. But those same objections can be said about any of the other widely accepted boundaries on speech.Report

    • Dark Matter in reply to LeeEsq
      Ignored
      says:

      You’re forgetting Russia. We’ve had the resources of a hostile state trying to fund extremism and political/social instability. Everything from internet troll farms to funding politicians.

      We know that they’ve been doing this, we’re not sure how much money or impact it’s had. My expectation is this is a bigger part in all this than we like to think.

      From Russia’s point of view, they’ve been at war with us for more than a decade. They (correctly) view their system as being hostile to ours. For example the basic concepts of clean government and clean elections are serious problems for an authoritarian state.Report

    • InMD in reply to LeeEsq
      Ignored
      says:

      AfD, National Front/Rally, Brothers of Italy, Law and Justice, and plenty others seem to be doing fine without a 1st Amendment, and in spite of plenty of laws criminalizing various types of speech. They aren’t quite the same force in the UK but Nigel Farage seems to be able to force similar kinds of sentiments into the national agenda. As I understand it his efforts were instrumental in Brexit.

      To me it’s those who think all of our problems will be solved by passing a law and throwing a few of the more egregious people in jail that are being delusional. They’re out there and there’s no authority to appeal to or technocratic bureaucracy that’s going to come save us.Report

  8. Burt Likko
    Ignored
    says:

    There’s another difference.

    “JD Vance schtupped a couch once” was a joke. A well-drafted, Onion-at-its-best quality satire in its original form (a parody of a page from Vance’s novel) but it’s never been anything but a joke and everyone has known that all along. No one seriously believed it at any point in time.

    I guess I shouldn’t say “no one,” I don’t know that one way or another. But no one in the public forum, even the Democratic candidates using the joke as a laugh line, even pretends it’s real.

    And certainly it stains Vance’s dignity a bit that the joke has lingered as long as it has. But he’s the only one who’s been hurt by it, and then only his dignity.

    Trump said “They’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats, they’re eating the pets of the people that live there,” and he was as serious as a heart attack about it. He went on for sixty seconds of screen time and argued with the debate moderators that he had good reason to believe it was true and the journalists’ sources were lying to cover it up. And since then there have been efforts made to validate the lie.

    What’s more, it’s had real world consequences, as noted in the OP. Ones which it is plain to see have the potential to erupt into violence and thank the Gods that they haven’t yet.Report

  9. Philip H
    Ignored
    says:

    It’s not just a shift from fringe to core – it’s a belief that lying to gain media attention is a required action:

    During a Sunday interview on CNN, the Ohio senator and Republican vice presidential nominee said his evidence for this claim was “the first-hand accounts of my constituents.” He then went on to defend the dissemination of this false story.

    “The American media totally ignored this stuff until Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes,” Sen. Vance said. “If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do.”

    https://www.npr.org/2024/09/15/nx-s1-5113140/vance-false-claims-haitian-migrants-petsReport

    • Chip Daniels in reply to Philip H
      Ignored
      says:

      There is a thread which connects the rightwing violence Lee mentioned yesterday (Oklahoma City, Ruby Ridge etc), the Flight 93 manifesto, Vance’s comments, and the immunity decision of John Roberts.

      The militia members like those at Ruby Ridge and the author of the Flight 93 manifesto both state openly that they are in a war with the goal of total conquest.
      In their telling, the stakes are either total victory over liberalism, or existential annihilation. This justifies any act, whether it is shooting cops or blowing up a building and murdering the hundreds of civilians inside.

      Vance continues this theme using the existential stakes to justify lying and inciting violence and murder of an entire group of people he considers a threat.

      And Roberts is doing his part to erect a legal framework to shield the rightwing from any legal limits on power so they can prosecute the war against the threat.

      The obvious question is, what is the “threat”? What is happening that justifies such existential, total war?

      The threat of course is liberalism which gives their hated outgroup equality with them. These revolutionaries aren’t claiming any sort of oppression or injustice. Their list of grievances really just boil down to the lack of ability to enforce their preferred state of affairs on the rest of us whether we consent or not.Report

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