2024 Oscars Projections: And The Oscar Goes To

Nearly a year ago I shook off the personal high of watching my favorite film from 2022, Everything Everywhere All At Once, dominate the Oscars and began to look towards the 96th ceremony. Little did I know that after the wild ups and downs of the last few awards seasons, the 2023-2024 campaign would be one of the most static and anti-climatic in history.

Where as last year we went into Oscar night with many questions abound, this year there’s an air of predictability and comfortable knowing that this ceremony will be defined by Christopher Nolan finally having his moment with Oppenheimer in the same way Stephen Spielberg had with Schindler’s List, or Martin Scorsese had with The Departed, or Guillermo del Toro had with The Shape Of Water. Its a celebration of one of the great directors of our time and the film that got him across the finish line will prosper in return.

Last season there was a battle for getting into the last two or three spots in the Best Picture race, this time around every Oscar junkie knew what the ten nominees would be before nominations morning even arrived. Last season the Picture and Director prizes seemed to be leaning one way, but there was an aurora of an underdog that followed the frontrunners; this time around everyone paying attention already knows for sure which film is winning the top two prizes no questions asked. Last season three of the four acting races were considered tossups (And just my luck I predicted all three wrong), this time around only one of them is looking competitive. Last year certain categories like Score and Editing were tough to figure out, this time around those two aforementioned categories are already decided.

But that’s not to say there aren’t some cliffhangers yet to solve going into this weekend’s ceremony. Last year everyone and their mom already knew which way Visual Effects was going, but this time around that category has everyone scratching their heads. All three of the craft categories – Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hair – are up for grabs. The Screenplay races seem to be going one way, but the change in category for one contender could mess with expectations. The Animated Feature race, a category that last season was among the easiest to predict, is actually competitive this year. We went into last year’s ceremony having a sense of what the runner-up in Picture was, where as this year its anybody’s guess between four films. And of course, for the fourth time in six years, we have a Best Actress race that is coming down to the wire.

So yeah, we go into the 96th Academy Awards already knowing what the big story of the night is going to be. We already know who is winning almost every above-the-line category. Everyone knows the Universal after-party will be the place to be at. But we still have some exciting and unpredictable races to figure out. We still need to see if we get tea leaves that tell us what will have come in second for the top prize. So yes there is still some suspense going into these Oscars.

Below you’ll find my projected winner (with a confidence rating assigned) for each of the 23 categories including my picks for potential upsets and dark horses – as well as which way I would personally vote if I were an Academy voter myself. I’ve also provided about a paragraph or two of analysis for each race so that you can sound smart when you go to your friend’s Oscar party or at least know what to expect this Sunday night. Now there’s a lot to cover, so lets get this show started. I present my annual, final predictions for this weekend’s 96th Academy Awards ceremony.

 

Best Picture: Since the expansion of the ballot for the top prize back in 2009, upsets have become a more common occurrence. A lot of that is thanks to the preferential ballot system put in place since where voters rank the contenders rather than vote for just their top pick. But we’ve still seen some dominant frontrunners pull through after nearly sweeping all the major awards shows. This is going to be one of those years.

Last Spring Killers Of The Flower Moon was seen as the initial frontrunner, but since ‘Barbenheimer’ weekend back in July Oppenheimer has been the top dog and has stayed there. You have to go back a decade-plus to the last time a film was positioned to win Picture for such a length in time. Last year Everything Everywhere All At Once became the earliest publicly-released winner since The Silence Of The Lambs, and yet the former didn’t emerge as the one to beat until we got to the final phases of awards season. ‘Oppy’ has remained the leader throughout fall festival season, critics’ awards season, and the industry awards. Scorsese’s latest couldn’t re-take the lead even though some critics groups backed it. Barbie surged and peaked when it pulled off an upset win at the HCA’s Astra Awards but then saw its stock fall with each passing week thereafter. The only four films that remain as its challenger are Poor Things, The Holdovers, Anatomy Of A Fall, and a recently surging The Zone Of Interest – all four fighting for second place rather than first.

Oppenheimer won a majority of the critics’ prizes (Full discretion, the two groups I vote for both chose it as Best Picture), won the Golden Globes for Drama, won the Critics Choice’s top prize, and even won with BAFTA which was one of the few groups last year’s winner slipped up with. It then swept three of the four major guilds winning with the directors, the actors, and the producers (Who use a preferential ballot system themselves). The only major guild it hasn’t won with are the writers, and thanks to the strikes this year they don’t reveal their winners until AFTER the Oscars. It has won virtually everywhere not accounting for the bizarre upset at the Astras (Though the HCA came under fire for the second time in three years for accusations of vote rigging soon after their ceremony).

Before you mention how other heavy favorites lost before, remember that movies like Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain, or La La Land all showed some significant weaknesses to their main challenger in the leadup to the big night. Oppenheimer has shown none and unlike those aforementioned films we don’t have a clue yet what its main challenger even is. Last year I rated the frontrunner as only ‘Likely’ to win even with its historic guilds sweep because of its weakness with international voting groups. This year even those groups back the frontrunner. Its a major box office hit, its got some of the best audience scores of its year, its cast emerged as the one people gravitated to during the awards campaign, and its director is poised to have his big moment. In a rarity afforded to me, I can rate this year’s Best Picture race as a Safe Oppenheimer win. As Oppy himself said in the film, “chances are near zero” of an upset here.

My Projection: Safe Oppenheimer

Upset Alert: Poor Things; The Holdovers

Dark Horse(s): Anatomy Of A Fall; The Zone Of Interest

Just Happy To Be Nominated: American Fiction; Barbie; Killers Of The Flower Moon; Maestro; Past Lives

My Vote: 1. Oppenheimer; 2. Maestro; 3. Killers Of The Flower Moon; 4. Poor Things; 5. American Fiction; 6. The Holdovers; 7. Anatomy Of A Fall; 8. The Zone Of Interest; 9. Past Lives; 10. Barbie

 

Best Director: Christopher Nolan has won even more awards for his direction of Oppenheimer than the film itself has won for Best Picture. Nolan has dominated this race so much so that even with regional groups that went with an alternative for the top prize, he won their directing prize. Even the bizzaro-world results of HCA’s Astra Awards couldn’t stop him from winning with them in this category. Its been clear for ages now that it is his moment and the man behind some of the greatest films of the 21st century is about to get his long-sought, long-deserved, and overdue Oscar trophy. The man has swept the season so dominantly that he even won at places last year’s Oscar winners, The Daniels, came up short. The biggest of locks for the night is that Nolan is walking away with his first Oscar. Safe Nolan.

My Projection: Safe Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Upset Alert: Glazer (The Zone Of Interest)

Dark Horse(s): Triet (Anatomy Of A Fall)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Lanthimos (Poor Things); Scorsese (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

My Vote: Nolan (Oppenheimer)

 

Best Actor: Sometimes the physical transformational with makeup leads to an acting prize. For a while I thought Bradley Cooper would be that man who transformed himself physically in such a way he’d become the industry choice for Best Actor. But as we shifted to the final phase of awards season, it became clear this was actually a race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. Murphy won Golden Globes for Drama, BAFTA, and SAG. Giamatti won Golden Globes for Comedy and both the Critics Choice organization and the HCA’s Astra Awards to show strength with the two biggest critics groups. After nominations morning I was tilting towards Giamatti, but after Murphy’s combo win with actual industry voters that have crossover with the Academy, I think this race has dramatically become his to lose. Likely Murphy.

My Projection: Likely Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Upset Alert: Giamatti (The Holdovers)

Dark Horse(s): Cooper (Maestro)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Domingo (Rustin); Wright (American Fiction)

My Vote: Cooper (Maestro)

 

Best Actress: In a year of sweeps for almost all of the above-the-line races, Best Actress has once again ended up a race that gives me a headache to figure out. Since the Fall I have believed this was Emma Stone’s to lose. But Lily Gladstone ended up the popular regional critics’ pick and started making this a battle of the stones. Both split the Golden Globes for Drama and Comedy, and both split the two biggest critics groups with Stone winning Critics Choice and Gladstone winning at HCA’s Astra Awards. But then came the stunning snub of Lily for a BAFTA nomination which paved the way for Emma to easily win there. I thought Stone was pulling away then, only for Gladstone to pull off a must win with SAG.

On one hand Emma’s film is what I believe to be #2 in Picture and (spoiler alert) I believe will have the second biggest haul of Oscars by the end of the night. However Lily’s momentum in the middle of voting cannot be denied either. That said Emma won BAFTA because Lily couldn’t even get nominated there. However Lilly has narrative on her side as she’d be the first Native American to win this award and be only the third woman of color to have done so. My head and heart wants to stick with Emma, but if you actually look at the stats and history of this race you’ll find that Lilly has the slight edge. Last year I didn’t predict this category right because I was in denial of the momentum Michelle Yeoh was enjoying. This year I don’t want to make the same mistake. I’ll probably regret this but I’m predicting Lily Gladstone here, only barely tilting towards her for my final projection.

My Projection: Tilts Gladstone (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

Upset Alert: Stone (Poor Things)

Dark Horse(s): Huller (Anatomy Of A Fall)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Benning (Nyad); Mulligan (Maestro)

My Vote: Stone (Poor Things)

 

Best Supporting Actor: I’ve been calling this race since I saw Oppenheimer back in July. This is Robert Downey J.R’s big moment and he will have his Oscar trophy. Not only did I expect the man to charm the pants off of voters, I knew his narrative would be too irresistible for the industry. Like the movie he stars in, Downey was the favored choice among regional critics groups and he won at the Golden Globes, at the Critics Choice Awards, at BAFTA, and with SAG. His only loss being to Ryan Gosling at HCA’s Astra Awards – which again were an anomaly this year compared to other major groups. This is Downey’s to lose. Safe RDJ.

My Projection: Safe Downey (Oppenheimer)

Upset Alert: Gosling (Barbie)

Dark Horse(s): Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Brown (American Fiction); DeNiro (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

My Vote: Downey (Oppenheimer)

 

Best Supporting Actress: One of the most frustrating things for me personally this awards season was watching The Color Purple not hit with the industry past the support it got from SAG. Somehow Danielle Brooks overcame the movie’s awards flopping and at one point seemed to be the frontrunner to win here. However critics strongly got behind Da’Vine Joy Randolph and she followed that up by sweeping with every major group there is – winning at the Golden Globes, at the Critics Choice Awards, at the HCA’s Astra Awards, at BAFTA, and with SAG. Its the most dominant performance of the season and the Oscar is already in her hands walking in. Safe Randolph.

My Projection: Safe Randolph (The Holdovers)

Upset Alert: Blunt (Oppenheimer)

Dark Horse(s): Foster (Nyad)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Brooks (The Color Purple); Ferrera (Barbie)

My Vote: Brooks (The Color Purple)

 

Best Original Screenplay: There was a big uproar when France didn’t choose Cannes winner Anatomy Of A Fall as their International Feature submission and instead went with The Taste Of Things – the latter which happens to be in my personal Top 5 of last year. ‘Anatomy’ got the last laugh though as ‘Taste’ missed an International Feature nomination and it ended up a top-tier Best Picture contender. The only award it seems to be competitive for though is Original Screenplay. It has the Golden Globes and BAFTA under its belt, but lost to Barbie with the Critics Choice and HCA organizations. However Barbie was moved to Adapted Screenplay due to Academy rules and thus on paper ‘Anatomy’ should easily have this won. But I do wonder where those previous would-be Barbie votes are going and both The Holdovers and Past Lives are competitive here. I’m going with the screenplay that has been on a roll but I rate this as only Leans Anatomy Of A Fall.

My Projection: Leans Anatomy Of A Fall

Upset Alert: The Holdovers

Dark Horse(s): Past Lives

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Maestro; May December

My Vote: The Holdovers

 

Best Adapted Screenplay: This is one of the biggest tossups for this Sunday night if you ask me. For a while I defaulted to Oppenheimer as my prediction, and it could still win, but crowd pleaser American Fiction has gotten on a roll of late winning in this category with both the Critics Choice and HCA organizations, as well as pulling off a stunning win at BAFTA even though it was the movie’s only nomination there, before also winning USC’s Scripter Award. However with the Best Picture frontrunner in the mix and the addition of Barbie to this category for the Academy Awards, the TIFF audience award winner is still arguably a beatable favorite here. Leans American Fiction.

My Projection: Leans American Fiction

Upset Alert: Barbie; Oppenheimer

Dark Horse(s): Poor Things

Just Happy To Be Nominated: The Zone Of Interest

My Vote: Oppenheimer

 

Best Animated Feature: At one point it looked like this category would play out like last year with a juggernaut sweeper that walked into the ceremony with the Oscar won. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-verse was a box office success, had objectively the best audience scores of its year, was the clear regional critics favorite, had gotten some Best Picture nominations (Including with one of the groups I vote for), and won the undefeated combo of winning this prize with the Critics Choice and HCA organizations alongside winning with the producers’ guild. However Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy And The Heron has proven to be a stronger than expected contender by winning the undefeated combo of winning this prize at the Golden Globes and BAFTA, showing the international block is behind it over the big IP sequel. Its a closer race than we expected it’d be, but ultimately I think the film with better audience scores and more wins gets the prize. Leans Spider-Man: Across The Spider-verse.

My Projection: Leans Spider-Man: Across The Spider-verse

Upset Alert: The Boy And The Heron

Dark Horse(s): Elemental

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Nimona; Robot Dreams

My Vote: Elemental

 

Best Animated Short: The shorts are always a bracket buster and anyone would be foolish to rate any of them anything higher than just tilting towards their predicted winner.

With Animated Short, Disney’s Once Upon A Studio seemed like slam dunk nominee but the animation branch snubbed it allowing the path for Letter To A Pig to become the frontrunner. However since nominations morning we’ve seen a surge for War Is Over! and Ninety-Five Senses. The former doesn’t have the best critical reception, and the latter has become the rooting interests for many (It would get my vote). But it does seem like the sentimentality and politics behind War Is Over! will get it across the finish line. You never know with the shorts but I’m rating this Tilts War Is Over!.

My Projection: Tilts War Is Over!

Upset Alert: Ninety-Five Senses

Dark Horse(s): Letter To A Pig; Pachyderme

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Our Uniform

My Vote: Ninety-Five Senses

 

Best International Feature: For yet another year this category features a Best Picture nominee and thus seems all but done for the movie with the clear passion behind it. This time the beneficiary is the United Kingdom’s The Zone Of Interest. Had France submitted Anatomy Of A Fall this would have been a titanic battle between the top two films that fought for this prize among regional groups and major organizations but instead we have an already wrapped up race. Safe The Zone Of Interest.

My Projection: Safe The Zone Of Interest

Upset Alert: Society Of The Snow

Dark Horse(s): Io Capitano

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Perfect Days; The Teacher’s Lounge

My Vote: Perfect Days

 

Best Live Action Short: The shorts are always a bracket buster and anyone would be foolish to rate any of them anything higher than just tilting towards their predicted winner.

With Live Action Short, pre-nominations and post-nominations Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar has been the frontrunner. You’d think it’d be an easy choice for voters as its their chance to award him an Oscar. However to my surprise Anderson hasn’t really been out on the campaign trail for this one and Netflix overall has seemingly been less aggressive during the final phase of the season than in previous years. Its still the favorite and could still win, but I’m going with a slight upset here and predicting Red, White, And Blue as its content (particularly the twist at the end) is incredibly timely and relevant to the controversial and unpopular Dobbs decision of 2022 – and Academy voters are known to let their liberal politics guide them in their voting. Tilts Red, White, And Blue.

My Projection: Tilts Red, White, And Blue

Upset Alert: The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar

Dark Horse(s): Invincible; The After

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Knight Of Fortune

My Vote: The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar

 

Best Documentary Feature: During the critics’ stage of the season the clear frontrunner in this race was Apple’s Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. But Netflix’s own bio-doc American Symphony started to look like a major player and was my predicted winner in the leadup to nominations morning. But the always confounding doc branch snubbed both of the films and 20 Days In Mariupol emerged the new favorite. It seemed like the Russia-Ukrainian war doc was pulling away with wins at DGA and BAFTA but it then suffered an upset loss with the producers’ guild to the aforementioned (and not Oscar nominated) American Symphony. This feels kind of competitive but I still think its leaning towards what would be the second straight winner in this category tied to this conflict. Not to mention the recent death of Alexei Navalny could have galvanized voters towards the film. Leans 20 Days In Mariupol.

My Projection: Leans 20 Days In Mariupol

Upset Alert: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Dark Horse(s): To Kill A Tiger

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Four Daughters; The Eternal Memory

My Vote: 20 Days In Mariupol

 

Best Documentary Short: The shorts are always a bracket buster and anyone would be foolish to rate any of them anything higher than just tilting towards their predicted winner.

With Documentary Short, the frontrunner throughout all phases of the season has been The ABCs Of Book Banning which hasn’t gotten the greatest critical reception from what I’ve seen online, but its incredibly timely subject matter should be catnip to the liberal-minded voting body of the Academy.

My Prediction: Tilts The ABCs Of Book Banning

Upset Alert: The Last Repair Shop

Dark Horse(s): Nai Nai And Wai Po (Grandma And Grandma); The Barber Of Little Rock

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Island Between

My Vote: Nai Nai And Wai Po (Grandma And Grandma)

Best Original Song: In just three years and at just 22 years old, Billie Eilish is poised to win her second Oscar. Even as Barbie‘s awards stock has cratered, her song “What Was I Made For?” for the film has remained the one to beat. Critics got behind the other song in the film, “I’m Just Ken”, which many seem to think can pull off the upset here; but I would keep an eye on “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” for Killers Of The Flower Moon. Nevertheless it does seem like this one is leaning Eilish’s way going into Sunday night. Leans “What Was I Made For?”.

My Projection: Leans “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)

Upset Alert: “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

Dark Horse(s): “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)

Just Happy To Be Nominated: “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony); “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot)

My Vote: “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot)

 

Best Original Score: Can you hear the music? Unlike last year Best Score is a done-deal walking into the ceremony. Oppenheimer has dominated the precursors in this category throughout the whole awards season and has the Oscar locked up. Safe Oppenheimer.

My Projection: Safe Oppenheimer

Upset Alert: Killers Of The Flower Moon

Dark Horse(s): Poor Things

Just Happy To Be Nominated: American Fiction; Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny

My Vote: Oppenheimer

 

Best Sound: Some would argue Oppenheimer has Best Sound locked up in the same way it has other tech categories locked up. But the incredible sound work for The Zone Of Interest did pull off an upset over it at BAFTA. Nevertheless its more likely than not that ‘Oppy’ is coming away with this Oscar as well though I wouldn’t necessarily bet my mortgage on it like I would in other categories. Likely Oppenheimer.

My Projection: Likely Oppenheimer

Upset Alert: The Zone Of Interest

Dark Horse(s): Maestro

Just Happy To Be Nominated: The Creator; Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning

My Vote: Oppenheimer

 

Best Editing: Last year there were questions around whether Everything Everywhere All At Once could finish the sweep in this category given the film was struggling to get Best Sound nominations – which historically are a must for a movie to win here. Oppenheimer doesn’t have to worry about such a question during its awards season sweep for Best Editing, and like last year’s Best Picture winner will also grab this Oscar. Safe Oppenheimer.

My Projection: Safe Oppenheimer

Upset Alert: Anatomy Of A Fall

Dark Horse(s): Killers Of The Flower Moon

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Poor Things; The Holdovers

My Vote: Oppenheimer

 

Best Cinematography: This is basically a repeat of Best Sound in that Oppenheimer seems like the most likely to win here but another film, this time Poor Things, beating it at the British Cinematographers’ guild showed some weakness for it. Again, I wouldn’t bet my mortgage that it happens, but its probably going to be Oppenheimer‘s Oscar. Likely Oppenheimer.

My Projection: Likely Oppenheimer

Upset Alert: Poor Things

Dark Horse(s): Killers Of The Flower Moon

Just Happy To Be Nominated: El Conde; Maestro

My Vote: Maestro

 

Best Visual Effects: You’d think this would be another slam dunk victory for Oppenheimer but there’s just one problem – this is the one place it couldn’t get nominated; hell it didn’t even make the shortlist for nomination consideration. The visual effects race, which historically tends to be one of the easier ones to figure out, has ended up perhaps the most difficult this year. All season long its had nonsensical twists and turns with regional critics groups splitting between The Creator and Godzilla Minus One, while other places like Critics Choice and BAFTA went with non-Oscar nominated contenders.

On paper this should be The Creator‘s to lose as it did very well with the visual effects’ guild and the movie showed up in Best Sound. However Godzilla Minus One‘s director happens to also be the VFX supervisor on the movie and has been campaigning his ass off and attending artisan screenings with big audiences. The Japanese film is the first ever Godzilla movie to get an Oscar nomination, and only the second foreign language film to get nominated here. ‘Minus One’ easily has the best audience scores among the nominees, got some Best Picture mentions among certain critics groups, was actually the third in line for Best International Film wins during the season (Including winning that prize with the Puerto Rico Critics Association of which I am a member of), and was a box office hit which only competitor Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3 could also claim. With the entire Academy voting instead of just VFX branch members, an upset is very plausible. I would be beyond the moon if my favorite film from last year which is a part of my all-time favorite film franchise escaped with an Oscar, but prediction wise I think the race is barely tilting towards The Creator. Tilts The Creator.

My Projection: Tilts The Creator

Upset Alert: Godzilla Minus One

Dark Horse(s): Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3; Napoleon

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning

My Vote: Godzilla Minus One

 

 

Best Costume Design: Like Production Design we have the same five nominees in this category, and we even also have the same top-two battle between Barbie and Poor Things. Like with the previous category I’m titling towards Poor Things for its industry haul for costume awards and the fact its a stronger Best Picture contender than Barbie. Of note, this is the only category where Oppenheimer is nominated that I don’t even give it a dark horse’s chance if there’s an upset. If there is a dark horse that comes up the middle it’d be likely Killers Of The Flower Moon in this category rather than the top prize’s frontrunner. Tilts Poor Things.

My Projection: Tilts Poor Things

Upset Alert: Barbie

Dark Horse(s): Killers Of The Flower Moon

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Oppenheimer; Napoleon

My Vote: Poor Things

 

Best Hair & Makeup: And finally we reach Hair & Makeup. On paper this should be Maestro‘s to lose with its big wins at the makeup artists’ guild. However Poor Things is a much stronger Best Picture contender and did grab the BAFTA in this category. This will be my “no guts, no glory” prediction so I’m predicting Poor Things to pull off the slight upset though I’m sure I’ll probably come to regret making such a gamble here. Tilts Poor Things.

My Projection: Tilts Poor Things

Upset Alert: Maestro

Dark Horse(s): Oppenheimer

Just Happy To Be Nominated: Golda; Society Of The Snow

My Vote: Poor Things