Since the big “Barbenheimer” weekend Oppenheimer has been the movie to beat for the Best Picture prize. I had to go all the way back to the 2013-2014 season to find a frontrunner that has lead the pack for as long in 12 Years A Slave. The movie that was our initial frontrunner way back in the Spring, Killers Of The Flower Moon, has been barely holding on to the top two spot as regional critics’ groups have given the most Best Picture prizes to the two epic period pieces. Barbie, a film that I confess to personally not liking has surged of late thanks to being a popular nominations leader with critics and potentially the frontrunner to win SAG Ensemble – a prize that has lead to many underdogs surging to a Best Picture victory. Poor Things and The Holdovers have been competitive as well and round out the top five.
They’re followed by the bottom five that are happy to be nominated and not necessarily in contention to win at the moment, with Maestro and American Fiction being pushed by the more industry minded or populist voters, and the more high-brow international voters pushing Past Lives, Anatomy Of A Fall, and The Zone Of Interest. The order of these movies may be debatable, but the same ten are going to be predicted by almost everyone come nominations morning. The lineup for Best Picture this year is the most locked lineup I’ve seen perhaps ever with practically no room for the final slots barring a surprise or two. Unfortunately late releases that I personally was rooting for like The Color Purple and The Iron Claw just haven’t gotten enough traction outside of a few regional critics and industry guild mentions.
We’ve finally seen some major movement in the awards’ races however. Critics, journalists, and content creators that makeup the major critics groups have had their say and handed out their awards. The Hollywood Creative Alliance had a bizzaro-world like night with their Astra Awards as Barbie upset Oppenheimer for Best Picture. But Barbie was upset itself at the Golden Globes by Poor Things for Best Motion Picture Comedy or Musical while Oppenheimer was having a big night and won Best Motion Picture Drama. At the Critics Choice Awards Oppenheimer pulled off the biggest haul of wins for a movie there since La La Land and won Best Picture there as well. Meanwhile industry guilds are coming out with their own nominations almost every day with big ones like the Directors, Actors, and Producers all having their awards’ shows scheduled for next month. This Thursday BAFTA will come out with their nominations and give us more insight into what industry voters are voting for.
As you’ll see with my updated projections some changes have occurred not just in predicted nominees but also which way I rate certain races. Oppenheimer has gone from rating as just rated as Tilts to rated as Leans in several categories including Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Score, Sound, Editing, and Cinematography. Christopher Nolan has gone from rated as a Leans favorite to Likely favorite in Best Director. Actor and Supporting Actress has shifted to tilting towards new predicted winners, both from The Holdovers. Barbie has taken the slight lead in Production Design and is now rated as a Leans favorite in Costume Design. Both Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse and The Zone Of Interest have gone from just rated Tilts favorites to Leans favorites in Animated Feature and International Feature respectively.
Nothing is safe or looking set in stone just yet. We still have BAFTA nominations this Thursday followed by Oscars’ nominations next Tuesday. I have one more final projection update before nominations morning later in the week, and we’re bound to see the industry change the perception of a few races over the course of next month’s industry awards. Oppenheimer seems like it may just be the steamroller of the season but we still have plenty votes left to count and we don’t yet have a clear picture on what the top contender to its Best Picture path is. History says we’ll know who that is in the coming weeks ahead.
Best Picture: Tilts Oppenheimer → Leans Oppenheimer
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Barbie
04. Poor Things
05. The Holdovers
06. Maestro
07. American Fiction
08. Past Lives
09. Anatomy Of A Fall
10. The Zone Of Interest
– WATCH OUT FOR
11. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
12. The Color Purple
13. Saltburn
14. All Of Us Strangers
15. May December
16. Society Of The Snow
17. Air
18. The Iron Claw
19. Napoleon (Returning To The Board)
20. Ferrari
– Off The Board Since Last Update: The Boy And The Heron
Best Director: Leans Nolan → Likely Nolan
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Greta Gerwig; Barbie
04. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things
05. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers
WATCH OUT FOR
06. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest
07. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall
08. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
09. Celine Song; Past Lives
10. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction
– Off The Board Since Last Update: J.A Bayona (Society Of The Snow); Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple); Emerald Fennell (Saltburn); Michael Mann (Ferarri); Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy And The Heron)
Best Actor: Tilts Cooper → Tilts Giamatti
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer
03. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
04. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon
07. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers
08. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn
09. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw
10. Teo Yoo; Past Lives
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario); Matt Damon (Air); Adam Driver (Ferrari); Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid); Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)
Best Actress: Tilts Stone
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Carey Mulligan; Maestro
04. Margot Robbie; Barbie
05. Annette Benning; Nyad
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall
07. Greta Lee; Past Lives
08. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple
09. Natalie Portman; May December
10. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Trace Lysette (Monica); Helen Mirren (Golda); Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves); Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla); Teyana Taylor (One Thousand And One)
Best Supporting Actor: Tilts Downey JR → Leans Downey JR
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer
02. Ryan Gosling; Barbie
03. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon
04. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things
05. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. William Dafoe; Poor Things
07. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers
08. Charles Melton; May December
09. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers
10. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Colman Domingo (The Color Purple); Glenn Howerton (Blackberry); John Magaro (Past Lives); Holt McCallany (The Iron Claw); Jesse Plemons (Killers Of The Flower Moon)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: None
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Brooks → Tilts Randolph
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers
02. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple
03. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer
04. Jodi Foster; Nyad
05. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. America Ferrera; Barbie
07. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn
08. Julianne Moore; May December
09. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret
10. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Viola Davis (Air); Claire Foy (All Of Us Strangers); Taraji P Henson (The Color Purple); Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon); Niecy Nash-Betts (Origin)
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts The Holdovers
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. The Holdovers
02. Anatomy Of A Fall
03. Past Lives
04. Maestro
05. May December
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Saltburn
07. Air
08. The Iron Claw
09. Asteroid City
10. Rye Lane (New Entry To The Board)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Barbie (Switched To The Other Screenplay Category); Dream Scenario; Fair Play; Napoleon; Rustin; Origin
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Oppenheimer
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Barbie (Switched From The Other Screenplay Category)
04. Poor Things
05. American Fiction
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. The Zone Of Interest
07. All Of Us Strangers
08. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret
09. The Killer
10. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Blackberry; Ferrari; Nyad; Priscilla; The Color Purple; Wonka
Best Animated Feature: Tilts Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse → Leans Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
02. The Boy And The Heron
03. Nimona
04. Elemental
05. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
07. Suzume
08. Wish
09. Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget
10. Robot Dreams
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Leo; Migration; The Peasants; They Shot The Piano Player; Trolls Band Together
Best Animated Short: Tilts Once Upon A Studio
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Once Upon A Studio
02. Letter To A Pig
03. Pete
04. War Is Over!
05. Eeva
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Ninety-Five Senses
07. Humo
08. Boom
09. Pachyderme
10. A Kind Of Testament
11. I’m Hip
12. 27
13. Wild Summon
14. Koerkoter
15. Our Uniform
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best International Feature: Tilts The Zone Of Interest → Leans The Zone Of Interest
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. The Zone Of Interest
02. Society Of The Snow
03. Fallen Leaves
04. The Taste Of Things
05. Perfect Days
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. 20 Days In Mariupol
07. Four Daughters
08. The Promised Land
09. Totem
10. The Teacher’s Lounge
11. Io Capitano
12. Godland
13. The Monk And The Gun
14. Amerikatsi
15. The Mother Of All Lies
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best Live Action Short: Tilts The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
02. Strange Way Of Life
03 The Anne Frank Gift Shop
04. The After
05. The Shepard
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Good Boy
07. Red, White, And Blue
08. Invincible
09. An Avocado Hit
10. Yellow
11. Dead Cat
12. The One Note Man
13. Invisible Border
14. Bienvenidos A Los Angeles
15. Knight Of Fortune
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best Documentary Feature: Tilts American Symphony
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. American Symphony
02. Still: A Michael J. Fox Story
03. 20 Days In Mariupol
04. Beyond Utopia
05. Four Daughters
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Bobi Wine: The People’s President
07. Going To Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
08. Stamped From The Beginning
09. The Eternal Memory
10. Apolonia, Apolonia
11. 32 Sounds
12. A Still Small Voice
13. To Kill A Tiger
14. In The Rearview
15. Desperate Souls, Dark City, And The Legend Of Midnight Cowboy
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best Documentary Short: Tilts The ABCs Of Book Banning
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. The ABCs Of Book Banning
02. The Last Repair Shop
03. The Barber Of Little Rock
04. Last Song From Kabul
05. Deciding Vote
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Camp Courage
07. Black Girls Play: The Story Of Hand Games
08. Bear
09. If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
10. Oasis
11. Between Earth And Sky
12. Island In Between
13. Nai Nai And Wai Po
14. Wings Of Dust
15. How We Got Free
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best Original Song: Tilts “What Was I Made For?”
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. “What Was I Made For?”; Barbie
02. “I’m Just Ken.” Barbie
03. “Road To Freedom”; Rustin
04. “It Never Went Away”; American Symphony
05. “The Fire Inside”; Flaming Hot
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. “Dance The Night”; Barbie
07. “Keep It Moving” The Color Purple
08. “Superpower (I)” The Color Purple
09. “Quiet Eyes”; Past Lives
10. “Am I Dreaming”; Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
11. “Can’t Catch Me Now”; The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds & Snakes
12. “High Life” Flora And Son
13. “Meet In The Middle”; Flora And Son
14. “A Song For My People”; Killers Of The Flower Moon
15. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)”; Asteroid City
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best Original Score: Tilts Oppenheimer → Leans Oppenheimer
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. The Zone Of Interest
05. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Elemental
07. The Boy And The Heron
08. Society Of The Snow
09. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
10. Barbie
11. The Holdovers
12. American Fiction
13. The Color Purple
14. Saltburn
15. American Symphony
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best Sound: Tilts Oppenheimer → Leans Oppenheimer
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Maestro
04. The Zone Of Interest
05. Ferrari
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Barbie
07. Napoleon
08. The Killer
09. The Creator
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best Editing: Tilts Oppenheimer → Leans Oppenheimer
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Barbie
04. Poor Things
05. The Holdovers
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Maestro
07. American Fiction
08. Anatomy Of A Fall
09. The Zone Of Interest
10. Air
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Society Of The Snow; Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse; Saltburn; Past Lives; The Color Purple
Best Cinematography: Tilts Oppenheimer → Leans Oppenheimer
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. Maestro
05. The Zone Of Interest
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Saltburn
07. El Conde
08. Barbie
09. Society Of The Snow
10. Napoleon
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Asteroid City; John Wick: Chapter 4; Past Lives; The Color Purple; The Holdovers
Best Visual Effects: Tilts Godzilla Minus One
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Godzilla Minus One
02. The Creator
03. Poor Things
04. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
05. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
07. Napoleon
08. Society Of The Snow
09. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1
10. Rebel Moon Part 1: A Child Of Fire
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
Best Production Design: Tilts Poor Things → Tilts Barbie
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Barbie
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. Maestro
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. The Zone Of Interest
07. Asteroid City
08. Saltburn
09. The Creator
10. Wonka
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Beau Is Afraid; Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3; Society Of The Snow; The Color Purple; The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes
Best Costume Design: Tilts Barbie → Leans Barbie
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Barbie
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. Napoleon
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Maestro
07. The Color Purple
08. Saltburn
09. Wonka
10. Priscilla
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Asteroid City; Chevalier; Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3; The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes; The Little Mermaid
Best Hair & Makeup: Tilts Maestro
– CURRENT PROJECTION
01. Maestro
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Society Of The Snow
05. Golda
– WATCH OUT FOR
06. Killers Of The Flower Moon
07. Beau Is Afraid
08. The Last Voyage Of The Demeter
09. Napoleon
10. Ferrari
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Not Possible, Category Is Shortlisted
