The fourth Republican will be held Wednesday night and the field is finally being winnowed down to a manageable size. Only five candidates met the threshold to be on the debate stage, and only four of those plan to take part.
The four candidates expected to take part in the debate are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Chris Christie. Donald Trump could easily meet the requirements to participate in the debate, but of course, has too much to lose to step into the fray.
The requirements set by the Republican National Committee for the Tuscaloosa, Alabama debate included receiving donations from at least 80,000 unique donors with at least 200 in 20 different states or territories. Candidates also had to score at least six percent in two different national polls and two polls from the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy were considered to be locks to compete in the debate, but Christie is something of a surprise. The former New Jersey governor is polling at 2.8 percent in the FiveThirtyEight average, but by definition, averages are based on numbers that are both higher and lower. Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson is also still in the race, but Hutchinson has not qualified for a debate since the first one back in August.
Though there will be four people on the stage, the real contest is between DeSantis and Haley. The pair of former governors are competing for the second-place spot and, as I wrote earlier this week, DeSantis’s downward trend gives Haley an opportunity to emerge as the nontrumpy (or at least the untrumpiest viable) alternative to The Former Guy. Haley’s surge builds on a series of strong debate performances.
The pressure will be high for both Haley and DeSantis. DeSantis will be grasping at the opportunity to reverse his decline while Haley will be looking to cut his legs out from under him. To have any chance of defeating Trump, each candidate will have to force the other out of the race or at least relegate them to the margins.
This debate should be a no-holds-barred grudge match between DeSantis, the MAGA populist, and Haley, the traditional conservative, for the future of the party. And by “the future of the party” I most likely mean that the also-ran in 2024 will have a leg up in 2028 after Joe Biden’s second term because the chance that either of these candidates will defeat Trump to win the nomination is minute.
Nevertheless, the two headliners present very different visions for the party and the country. DeSantis represents a trumplike tendency to use government as a club to beat down enemies while Haley champions a constitutionalist and limited-government view that used to be regarded as the majority in the GOP. One of the most stark differences between the two is over the issue of aid to Ukraine, which Haley supports and DeSantis seems to oppose but won’t nail down a firm position. Haley also represents the reality-based faction of the GOP while DeSantis hails from the conspiracy-driven, anti-vax wing. They are very different candidates.
Chris Christie, also a very different candidate, does have an important role to play as well. Christie will be on the stage in the role of pit bull as the only person on the stage who is unapologetically critical of the four-time-indicted presumptive nominee. Christie has no chance of becoming the nominee, but Republican voters desperately need to hear the truth that he speaks. Maybe at some point, that truth will penetrate through to the Republican base. I would pay good money to see Trump face Christie in person.
Vivek Ramaswamy is the one whose mic should be cut. The wealthy entrepreneur has shown himself to be a radical as well as an intellectual lightweight. His trumplike snark may get audience reactions and soundbites, but he is really a distraction from the conversation that the grownups are having.
If you haven’t watched any of the debates so far, Wednesday might be a good time to start. This week’s debate with fewer open microphones will allow the candidates more time to go in-depth on their answers and give more details. And with just over a month until the primaries begin, the results are starting to actually matter… for second place.
This is also the last scheduled Republican debate. If points are to be scored in a face-to-face format, it will be here. With this final chance to take opponents down a few notches, the knives will be out, and the hopefuls will be looking for blood.
HOW TO WATCH THE REPUBLICAN DEBATE: The debate will be held Wednesday night at 8:00 pm Eastern time. The debate is hosted by NewsNation, a cable news channel. It will be simulcast on The CW in the Eastern and Central time zones. Viewers without access to either channel can stream the debate on the NewsNation website at https://www.newsnationnow.com/news-nation-live/
Haley may make a good candidate, but Trump is the presumptive nominee until he isn’t. The GOP needs to acknowledge this and move on.Report
Always an optimist I seeReport
Credit where it’s due — Vivek has lasted a lot longer in this process than I thought he would.
Also note: it’s six weeks until the Iowa Caucuses.
And finally, your periodic grumpy reminder: debates are bad. We’ve been over this, recently, so I won’t re-iterate the reasons why debates are bad.Report