Debt Limit Cacophony Ends With A Meh
The Thing That Must Happen happened, as the House of Representatives passed the debt limit bill 314-117 after months of public and private fretting over it.
Late last night, the House cleared the bipartisan debt-limit bill by an overwhelming 314-117 margin.
And today, the Senate today kicks off what could be a brisk, 36-hour sprint or a drawn-out, days-long marathon on that legislation, the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
Leaders in both parties hope it’s the former. Not only to preserve their weekends, but to calm world financial markets ahead of the deadline Monday for a U.S. government default.
Based on our conversations with leadership aides, there’s a reasonable hope that the Senate can pass the debt-limit package by Friday night. And last night’s blowout House vote will lend some momentum to this. Two-thirds of House Republicans were in favor, with an even bigger total among Democrats.
The key here for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will be clinching a time agreement with senators who are demanding votes on amendments — and then making sure that those amendments don’t pass. We expect all of these amendments to be considered at a 60-vote threshold.
The New York Democrat could file cloture on the motion to proceed to the House-passed bill as soon as today if there’s no agreement.
Schumer emphasized on Wednesday that the U.S government would default on its debt if the House needed to take up an amended bill. So, in some ways, the amendment push is an exercise in political theater.
Senate Minority Whip John Thune told us that he’d heard from at least a dozen GOP offices seeking amendment votes, and some Democrats are interested in amendments as well.
Importantly, Schumer has backing from Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other GOP leaders when it comes to the urgency of passing this bill, which extends the debt limit until Jan. 1, 2025, while also cutting government spending. And senators who are vehemently opposed to the package are signaling they won’t try to drag out debate — as long as they get a vote on their amendment.
That last bit about voting on amendments sure to fail as long as they can get there “Gosh, jolly, whiz, I sure did try hard to stop this thing I negotiated to not stop as long as I could look like I was stopping” performance is a good encapsulation of this recurring passion play of debt limit raising. It is going to get done, it will involve a lot of theater, it makes for content filler for the news media and commentariat, something gets passed that doesn’t really mean very much other than “avoiding catastrophic failure”, some date is picked in the future to do this all again…
God, this whole thing is stupid.
Lost in the play-by-play and politics of the moment is how ridiculous all this is. The United States House of Representatives and United States Senate have devolved to the place where the only way they can do legislation anymore is have a crisis — real or fabricated — and then use said crisis to do the bare minimum required for the country not to completely unravel. Then party, champagne, pats on the back, and fundraising/campaign videos on what a great job they are all doing.
We, the people, have decided this fine.
So, here in a few years we will repeat the kabuki failure theater the next time the debt limit needs raised. Just about everyone involved will play their parts, The Thing That Must Be Done will be done after much political theater, news media consternation, and pundit gnashing of teeth. Sound and fury, signifying that no one cares to learn the lesson enough to do it any other way, since Congress, like water, is always going to take the path of least resistance. You could call this draining to the lowest level a shame, bad leadership, an indictment on our political system, commentary on our body politic, so on and so forth.
We, the people, kid ourselves and call this display governance. At least, until reality smashes through the theater one of these days and some hand waving and fun with numbers can’t fix it. But that day ain’t today, so who cares, everybody wins, and there’s an election to win, don’t you know? Right?
On to the next political MacGuffin. Try to keep up.
A nice summation of the disgust we all feel about Congress as we pull the lever, yet again, for the same person representing us in that body.Report
This year, I have an inside source in Congress (no, seriously), and at least from the information I get from their perspective, things are even stupider than they look from the outside, if that’s possible.Report
My former Hill colleagues can confirm this. Anyone on Committee and member staff with any seniority is already looking for an exit.Report
California used to have this exact scenario play out repeatedly as Republicans held the budget hostage and several times forced shutdowns.
And we were treated to the very same sort of essays about “Those politicians” and how dysfunctional they are blah blah blah.
Until the Democrats reached a supermajority and now, the budget passes easily every year. There is no dysfunction, no shutdowns or hostage taking.Report
I agree that this was more theater than governance, but I think it’s important to understand why it played out that way, and it’s because Joe Biden successfully knocked the wind out of Republican sails by matter of factly saying exactly what they wanted to do: make massive cuts to popular entitlement programs like social security and Medicare. There’s also the fine print of course about their plan to do this being fiscal insanity as it would not have been paired with any plan to put the government on a sustainable footing, but tax cuts for the rich that would have only exacerbated the issue, though that’s less important.
What is important is that it painted the Republicans into a corner where they, by virtue of tensions in their own coalition (to say nothing of the politics), had to back off virtually all of the substance but still make a big show of fighting to save a little face. In a certain way I would say the outcome, assuming Senate passage without much fuss, really is a victory of boring ol’ politics as usual, and dare I say Bidenism. Biden being Biden is not going to crow about it because he understands that when you’ve won you don’t need to and it may even help you for a fight to look harder than it was. I think the ‘Dark Brandon’ thing is a little stupid. However this adds credence to the idea that he is perpetually under estimated but seems in a way that is both quiet and haphazard to come out on top without anyone realizing it until the smoke clears.Report
Concur on this. Joe’s doing a good job. I just wish to God(ess?) he was ten to twenty years younger.Report
Sometimes I think that, and I definitely think we’ll be in a world of hurt it he does something crazy like dropping dead. Other times I think being from another era may be among the biggest factors allowing him to pull off what he has been able to.Report
MacGuffin is definitely the word.
The Debt Ceiling Crisis is my least favorite of U.S. Political Theater production.
Zero entertainment value and 100% predictable.Report
Welcome to a country where there is significant and increasing negative polarization and the parties are more or less equally divided in support. Add the fact that it is nearly impossible to reform or change the basic structure of the federal government so we are probably stuck with these things for the foreseeable future.
There is potentially a platonic ideal of democracy where the parties are basically all working for the common good and compete for votes by messing around the margins of policy. The big problem here is that it ignores what happens when there are real and serious ideological differences and divisions on what the common good is, what the purpose and point of government is, and a whole lot of other issues related to liberty, and also the good old fashioned who gets what when, where, why, and how.
I agree that there is a generally sour mood regarding politics in this country. I don’t think this is limited to the national government but can be found in municipalities as well. I’m pretty sour about the people running for mayor in 2024. Maybe this will change and someone I like more will throw his or her hat in the ring.
Republicans don’t like Democrats. Democrats don’t like Republican. Mushy middle voters think everything is vaguely icky in an ichoate way.
2024 is almost certainly going to be a rematch of Biden and Trump. Two people who are pretty unpopular. I think Biden’s negative poll ratings are unjustified but they are what they are. Is there another Presidential election where both nominees were unpopular? I think there is a substantial chance for control of Congress to flip in 2024. Basically, Democrats regain the House and Republicans gain the Senate (Tester, Manchin, and Brown have defied political gravity before but it could be harder this time around). 71 percent of Californians want DiFi to resign because of her health but there is no mechanism for it and all the old people in the Senate are rushing to her defense because it is so unfair and sexist to attack the old woman when Strom Thurmond got to be a vegetable in the Senate on his 100th birthday. The only politicians calling for her resignation are a bunch of upstart crows in the House and the Boomers treat them like they are still at the kid’s table.Report
So I’ll start by admitting that the House Freedom Caucus was and is a lot more hot air then I expected. It is true they voted as a block against the bill once produced – its also true they didn’t use their majority on the Rules Committee to do more damage. I’m not sure how it will be spun but its apparent they lost big time.
That said – when you need Democrats to get your first piece of “historic” legislation across the finish line in a House you control (if only barely), you may want to rethink your ability to retake the House, Senate and White House in the next cycle. Republicans need to really start thinking about what vision they want to share next year – cause this isn’t going to move the needle on independents and moderates.Report