Boris Johnson Drops Comeback Bid, Rishi Sunak Poised For UK PM
Photo by HM Treasury, OGL 3
You know, sometimes it is real burden knowing everything…
Would not be surprised if Boris pulls a last minute "for the good of the party I won't even though I could if I want to" here… https://t.co/9tSY3c1e2e
— Andrew Donaldson (@four4thefire) October 22, 2022
In a statement, Johnson said he had enough support to proceed to a vote among Conservative Party lawmakers on Monday. That claim was unsupported by tallies of lawmakers by the BBC and the Guardian, which did not show Johnson reaching the hurdle of 100 votes out of 357 Tory members in the House of Commons.
Johnson said, “I believe I have much to offer but I am afraid that this is simply not the right time.”
Johnson said he had reached out to his competitors Sunak and the Conservative Party’s leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt, to strike some kind of deal — Johnson does not specify what kind of deal — “because I hoped that we could come together in the national interest — we have sadly not been able to work out a way of doing this.”
He seemed to blame them for his withdrawal.
“There is a very good chance that I would be successful in the election with Conservative Party members — and that I could indeed be back in Downing Street on Friday,” Johnson said.
“But in the course of the last days I have sadly come to the conclusion that this would simply not be the right thing to do. You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament,” he said.
Mordaunt is still in the running but remains far behind with only 25 declared supporters. Sunak has 155. Mordaunt will be hoping to pick up support from undeclared voters and Johnson backers, but already some of those have said they will be backing Sunak.
This seems to leave the job to Rishi Sunak, who lost out to Liz Truss and her six weeks of chaotic mess that led to her resignation on October 20th. In that leadership race Sunak had the support of conservative MPs, but Truss won once the voting moved to the wider party. That support is evident again this time around, and once Rishi Sunak stood this time – the abortive Boris 2.0 experiment not withstanding – there seems little doubt as to the outcome.
The dramatic development makes Rishi Sunak, the former finance minister who is surging ahead in the race, the firm favorite.
Sunak would be the first leader of color to preside over Britain’s government and the first of Indian descent.
His wife is the daughter of the founder of Infosys, who is a billionaire in India. The couple are among the richest in Britain. Sunak is a graduate of Stanford University and a former employee of Goldman Sachs. He is a centrist on the economy, who promises to balance the books and pay heed to the Bank of England and the bond market.
Sunak, too, was in part responsible for Johnson’s ouster as prime minister.
He abandoned Johnson’s cabinet as his government unraveled over the summer. Sunak was also prescient, saying that the economic plan of Johnson’s replacement, Liz Truss, was based on “fantasy” economics. Truss was a zealous supply-side and tax-cutting enthusiast who lasted just six weeks after that plan caused massive disruption to Britain’s economy.
The policies were only part of the quick flameout of the Truss premiership, though. The public flip-flopping — or “u-turn” as they referred to it over there — on policies introduced only to be quickly abandoned added to the “chaos” narrative and stoked a rebellion in the benches behind the short time PM. The fact many of those same MP’s wanted Rishi Sunak over Liz Truss in the first place can certainly be factored in as well. Rishi Sunak, at least on paper, looks to have a bit more support from his own party, but the political turmoil and economic crisis have no end in sight.
The ambitious Sunak looks to be taking on the premiership with just as steep a hill to climb as Liz Truss did. While he will probably clear the low bar of her 45 days in office, his turn at No. 10 looks to be a stormy one at best. Labour will continue to demand for a general election. The UK economy could be looking at long-term recession. All the while, a host of domestic and international issues continue to churn while the cost-of-living crisis dominates Parliament’s attention, their constituencies cries of “do something”, and a United Kingdom that after the brief respite of mourning the Queen feels anything but at the moment.
As Liz Truss will no doubt attest, careful what you wish for, Mr. Sunak. You might just get it at an inopportune time.
As of an endorsement tracker operated by Patrick Flynn, Sunak has 185 endorsements this morning, which is 51.8% of MPs. Nobody else has cracked 100 endorsements. According to the tracker spreadsheet, Sunak had support across various wings/groups of the party, and suggests that the main point of detraction is more personal. Johnson thinks Sunak’s resignation as the most important member of his cabinet was the key resignation of the record 36 in a 24-hour period that sunk his premiership. Johnson pushed an anybody-but Sunak campaign that elevated (Remainer) Truss.Report
I’ve seen arguments already over whether opposing Sunak is racist.
So I give him good odds.Report
This is probably their best option from a political and policy standpoint but I wonder if the iron laws of institutions will do him in. BoJo allegedly backed Truss because he thought she would be incompetent and this would make him look good by comparison.Report
She was; he still doesn’t.Report
The other previously-announced candidate dropped out so Sunak won by default. The choice by MPs should be official today, and it won’t go to the party membership.Report
Sunak is 42, Truss is 47, and even Johnson is only 58. Where does the UK find all these young politicians?Report
Mysteriously wealthy and slightly eccentric families adopt them from Dickensian orphanages then raise them for the purpose.Report
Murderous infighting leads to turnover, leads to intergenerational mobility.
By rights, Sunak should be a mid-tier cabinet minister on the rise right now, but he has the top job because they’ve run out of bodies.Report
That sounds so strange. “People elect our party despite our lacking people qualified/experienced enough to do the jobs.”Report
Well, look at where they’re polling right now.Report
There’s a reason they aren’t calling for general elections just yet.Report
Here it’s “People elect our party because we lack people qualified enough to do the job or even interested in doing it.”Report
In fairness, the last election the conservatives were up against Jeremy Corbin, so it’s not like the bar was high.Report
Sunak was Chancellor of the Exchequer, a major cabinet minister. OTOH, as matters currently stand Keir Starmer will seek to become prime minister for a Labour government the next election, having never served in a cabinet, and having first been elected to parliament in 2015 (which goes a long way to explain why he hasn’t served in a cabinet).Report
Chancellor of the Exchenquer isn’t just a major cabinet minister, it is minister for the ministry, finance is above all others.
But you’re missing the point, Sunak is a man of not that much years, not that much political talent and not that much support. Normally someone like this wouldn’t be two or three rungs lower on the hierarchy, but the Tories have burned themselves down with ceaseless civil wars while in office.Report
Well, I took Mike’s reference to age from the standpoint of America having a President who is 79 years old (and says he is running again), a Speaker of the House who is 82 years old and his senior Senator is 89 years old. I don’t think he’s saying Sunak is too young, Mike probably voted for a few Presidents in their 40s. Obama had less experience than Sunak.
But I disagree with the implication that its just a Tory thing. Starmer became leader of Labour after five years in Parliament. That’s probably a combination of internal civil war involving Corbin, electoral losses, and MPs leaving for better paying gigs.Report
Sunak’s wife is the daughter of a Billionaire and because of that she is one of the wealthiest women in Brittan. Not sure if that’s relevant or not.Report
Mid-50s is pretty standard for a world leader, so its really only Truss and Sunak that are young. I think its probably two factors – for one they’ve had high turnover so they’ve had to reach deeper down their bench. The second fact is Brexit. With Brexit, the people of the UK asked for a contradiction – they wanted a government to do do a foolish thing and have good things result from it. I can imagine this might make some of the more experienced Conservative politicians reluctant to have to wear the disaster that is unfolding.Report
The US is a rather extreme outlier, being run by politicians in their 70s and 80s. Russia has reached that point with Putin. Modi is 72. Sharif (Pakistan) is 71. Xi is “only” 69. An awful lot of the people making decisions in countries with lots of nuclear weapons are older than I am.Report
Despite their aging populations compared to the United States, other developed democracies seems to prefer younger leaders for the most part compared to America.Report
By way of example, the oldest MP in our Parliament is 70.Report
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…I assume that’s edited?Report
I have absolutely zero idea.
But, as far as I can tell, the guy is taking a video of his television.
It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s some auto-correction going on on the part of the Beeb and it did that with the folder when he walked out the other side.Report
As it turns out, it was Sky News, and they did it deliberately as part of a “joke”.
Report
I think colour over there works differently than our color.Report
Used to be the case, our NTSC analog versus their PAL. For non-streamed television, the whole world — except perhaps China — is MPEG now.Report
It’s hilarious to me that the Brits I know think our system of government is nonsensical.Report
Nothing created by humans will ever be perfect but there are some benefits to the parliamentary system where the head of government is in the legislature.Report
Sure, if you enjoy congressional chaos with a dash of monarchy. It’s an objectively curious set up they have over there.Report
Sure, having someone like Truss locked in for four years is far more preferable.Report
Imagine if every POTUS had to resign upon making an early misstep.Report
If it was a misstep as cataclysmic as Truss’s idiotic fiasco I’d say “good”.Report
I’m not sure it’s really apples to apples, given that in our system Congress controls the budget. I think it would be hard for a president to do quite what she did, not that there aren’t other avenues of catastrophic action.Report
The British voters, when confronted with proof that the government is completely out of its depth, react massively against it to put them on notice to shape up or ship out. What have Americans done lately?
You’re in no position to throw stones Yank.Report
So far as I know, British voters can’t force an early general election any more than American voters can. It’s good that Parliament can, under some circumstances. If you want to start an argument, bring up the subject of recalls. I’ve lived in the American West for most of my adult life, so applaud the voters in California (pop 40M, so within a factor of two of the UK) for requiring their governor to defend his policies at the ballot box. People with an outlook shaped by state constitutions in the eastern part of the US* think it was stupid.
* It’s not universal, but speaking broadly western states allow recall elections and eastern states don’t.Report
The voters can’t force an election directly, but Parliament is incentivized to worry about what voters think of the PM. As voters do not vote for the PM directly, if the PM is performing badly that will be reflected in low votes for their party at the next election. That hurts the MPs of that party by jeopardising their careers. On top of that, because they are appointed by Parliament, the PM has no democratic legitimacy of their own. This means that Parliament can simply remove an under-performing PM with no real push-back by the voters.Report
On the other hand, switching the MP could just be a way of riding it out until an election has to take place and the Tories could do this again and again until January 2025 with their majority. Maybe their should be a rule that you can switch prime ministers twice and then you it is a snap election.Report
Voters will also get get of constant PM rotations, so it still works against them, and the last thing you want is to incentivise parties to stand by unsuitable PMs.Report
This Yankee was simply calling out British stone throwing.
God save the King, my friend. God save the King.Report
A system of government where politicians who make tremendous errors resign immediately or can be forced out of office doesn’t seem that bad.Report
That sounds terrible. Maybe for a country the size of Belgium, but for a top-5 military power with nukes? The world needs stability from its great powers.Report
Oh, and you think we’ve been getting that from the US lately? The fact that dangerous lunatics can be elected President and there is no meaningful way of removing them except for praying for them to keel over dead is supposed to reassure us?Report
Don’t worry, its not like the Republicans might default on the debt and blow up the world economy or anything, or go into a war for no reason and destabilize the entire Mideast, or on a whim, decide to buy Greenland whilst sitting on toilet and tweeting.Report
Even Jon Stewart took 10% of his shots against his own side. It looks absurd if you don’t do at least that.Report
I think there’s stability in having one ruling party and one loyal opposition that don’t change frequently.Report
Was it the political system that forced her resignation or was it the bond markets?Report
Kwasi was forced to resign because of bonds. Bank of England and England’s gov’t faced off, and the government blinked.Report
If we are going to start throwing out Presidents for “tremendous errors” we are going to need a bigger boat.Report
Yeah, imagine if bad leaders were gotten rid of instead of just being quietly tolerated. What a wacky and implausible world.Report
At least up through the state level where I live, we have recall. Leaders are seldom actually tossed, but it happens. The fastest I remember it happening was a majority of a local school board in a wealthy suburban district, who announced they would take on the people who manage the AP program* even if it meant students would no longer be able to earn AP credits. Took like three weeks to collect sufficient signatures to hold a recall election and toss them.
Some California voters’ effort to recall their governor last year got lots of attention. Just personal opinion, it’s too easy in California.
* AP classes are certified by a national organization for content and in my state’s colleges may count for credit towards an undergraduate degree. Do not tell suburban parents that you’re going to take away the opportunity for their kids to earn most of a semester’s worth of college credits for free.Report
While I very much prefer parliamentary system, recall strikes me as a good way to limit the harm a bad directly-elected leader can cause. And of course, recall can be beneficial even if its never used, because the threat of it can concentrate the mind wonderfully.Report
The devil is in the details, especially in a political climate where it’s guaranteed to be weaponized. It isn’t clear to me, for example, that California is way better off for having whoever the governor happens to be recalled every few cycles. In fact I think it probably derails government. The disruption this would cause at the federal level is hard to imagine. The only way it might work would be with a threshold so high it was unlikely to ever be met. In which case we already have impeachment.Report
Very much the details. Newsom’s opponents didn’t have nearly enough signatures to have qualified in Colorado. I’d have to go back and check, but I don’t think they had enough signatures when they recalled Gray Davis if they had to use the Colorado rules.
Impeachment generally requires super-majorities that today would be impossible to reach.Report
In Illinois we’ve found the announcement of a federal grand jury indictment to be sufficient to trigger self-removal to spend time with family.
But I think most of this line of discussion misses the main problem here. The UK has often for purposes suited to the moment innovated from the traditional Westminister system in ways that came back to bite later.
The particular change here is that the parties have delegated the ultimate decision of who will be PM to people outside Parliament. To make a poor comparison, it was as if the U.S. House of Representatives selected two or three candidates for Speaker of the House and then the Iowa Caucuses made the ultimate decision. It shouldn’t be surprising that an outside, partisan, non-representative group might not select someone with the skills to operate within a deliberative body.
(Another innovation, the Fixed Term Parliament Act, set elections at five year intervals absent two-thirds support of MPs. It was repealed this year after causing a mess in 2019)Report
My wife reports that she listened to Sunak speak and it reminded her of the William Pitt the Younger scenes from Blackadder. If you close your eyes, you can imagine him stating “Down with Geography Teachers” and inviting the opposition to question him on his Latin vocabReport
Sunak went to Stanford on a Fullbright Scholarship in addition to being Oxford educated, FWIW. He’s also the richest MP in the UK, FWIW. And he’s only 42, FWIW.Report
1. That does not prevent him from sounding like a Blackadder sketch.
2. FWIW, BoJo and Truss were also Oxford-educated. They were both buffoons.
3. He is also the richest MP in the UK because he married into it and he got in trouble earlier this year because his wife listed herself as a nondomiciled resident to save on those taxes.
4. May I introduce you to the upper-class twit of their competition?Report
And JD Vance went to Yale, and Ted Cruz to Harvard, and on and on. Do these people speak stoopid as a show, or is it their native tongue?
My theory is that resentment and grievance makes people stoopid, because it requires them to think illogical thoughts and embrace absurdities. Like how they think Jews are both inferior yet control the world, or how immigrants are lazy moochers who somehow steal our jobs by working 16 hour days at backbreaking labor.Report
The Atlantic disabled their comments section because they were tired of hoi poloi who went to SUNY proving themselves to be more insightful than their Ivy League educated writers.Report
My loathing of Vance is well documented here so I’ll just go with the thumbnail relevant to your point; Vance – by his own admission, he openly talks about how one of his law professors discussed this with him as the genesis of Elegy – wrote that stupid book because without it he’s just another Ivy League lawyer and aspiring tech bro with no discernable qualities that made him stand out. Now he’s probably going to be a US Senator not on any merit or ability but because he matched up a trend line at the right time. The “illogical thoughts and embrace absurdities” of a Cruz or Vance is them reverting to their natural states as the initial public personas wear off. In Cruz’s case remember he spent years cultivating this Evangelical Christian savior schtick for his POTUS run where he announced at Liberty only to have Trump blow up his entire raison d’etre, ripped his carefully crafted political soul out through his nose, wear it as a hat, and proceed to spend years having Cruz publicly compliment him on what a fine hat it was. Of course Cruz is resentful and thinks his own base is stupid for rejecting his awesomeness, and he can just marry that to what he already was and you get what he is – bitter, hateful, resentful, petty, and mostly known now for being Daily Wire’s favorite senator. Talking to those rubes who did that to him as if they are stoopid fits multiple purposes, not the least of which is because to a least some of those folks, it works.Report
During Trump’s first run, when we should have been at the “anyone but Trump” phase and Cruz was the only alternative left, Cruz was so hated by his fellow Congress types they figured Trump was the lesser evil.
Cruz hits the radar as someone who shouldn’t be in the White House no matter what his policy is.Report
Down with Geography Teachers!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9SQR04rVfUReport
*Nicholas County Geography Bee Champion, 1994 right here…Report
That photo, the caption should be “Are you there God? It’s me, Prime Minister Rishi.”Report