Republicans Can’t Win on Spectacle Alone

The Democratic Party is understandably worried about the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections. It was buoyed by recent strong polling and the seismic Roe reversal in late June. But the party is still working against historical headwinds and poor fundamentals. Joe Biden’s approval rating remains low. A recession becomes more likely by the day. Recent polling in key Senate races has also tightened, blunting some of the confidence Democrats had that they could hold or even expand their control of that body. The House, once seeming like it could conceivably be held, now seems all but lost to most Democratic pundits.

As a result, Democrats have begun to worry about the damage a MAGA Republican House might do. They point to the behavior of many House Republicans, the weakness of their presumed Speaker, and the precedent of the Tea Party Congress back in 2011. Democrats believe that Republicans will copy their 2011 predecessors and try to hold the country hostage over the debt ceiling. They think the House will cut off all funding for Ukraine and spend endless hours investigating Republicans’ political opponents, not to mention throwing in a government shutdown or two whenever a continuing resolution is set to expire.

The idea of vapid Republican behavior in office is tied to the immense power of conservative media in the United States. Most observers believe that gerrymandering has rendered the party impervious to the opinion of anyone who does not blindly support Donald Trump. Conservative media warps reality to suit the needs of the former president and the conservative movement. Instead of being interested in satisfying the broad electorate, most Republican officeholders try only to prevent a primary challenge from their right wing. This cycle reinforces itself after every election and redistricting process.

Many of the fears that Democrats have about insulated Republican officeholders are valid. It is true that Marjorie Taylor Greene and Louie Gohmert will likely never have to face a substantial threat from a Democrat. Gerrymandering continues to worsen. The Republican Party has openly abetted and embraced the violent, dangerous tendencies of its Trump-supporting members. Worst of all, its recent success among minorities and suburban voters have shown that such an embrace can lead to victory and a lasting majority.

However, the House of Representatives is only one house of Congress. In the other branch, the electorate is much broader. In many states, candidates have to win a larger share of the electorate in order to claim victory. They need to appeal to at least some urban and rural voters from various constituencies.

In Senate races and in the race for president, facts and performance still matter. Senate races are often decided by damaging research, debates, and other factors that are mostly interpreted by mainstream media outlets. The presidential race, no matter how much it is influenced by individual personalities and the horse race mentality, still has this loose tethering to reality. A powerful conservative media is helpless before the forces of economic conditions, foreign setbacks, or a candidate without charisma.

The clearest example of this dynamic is the 2011 Tea Party overreach. Democratic fears about Republican extremism were proven when the GOP threatened to default on the nation’s credit. President Barack Obama and Republicans ended up working out a compromise. Then, a year later, a host of extremist Republican candidates like Todd Akin and Richard Murdoch lost otherwise winnable races and helped Democrats keep the Senate. Republican candidate Mitt Romney also lost his bid for the presidency. The debt ceiling was mostly retired as a political weapon for the rest of Obama’s tenure in office.

The Republican Party did not break every electoral rule in 2016. Instead, they lost in 2018 and 2020 because they failed to adequately convince a majority of voters on the national level that they were best equipped to solve the nation’s problems. All of the relevant voters in a small House district may be swayed by the party’s media organs. But fortunately for the country’s future, not every voter in North Carolina or Florida watches Fox News.