2023 Best Picture Oscars Projections: The Starting Line

I know. I see you. Picking up your coffee and going to your home desktop or gazing over that overpriced smart phone of yours and seeing this article pop up on this website as you say to yourself, “He couldn’t. He wouldn’t. There’s no way. The last Oscars literally just happen a couple weeks ago. We’re not even done talking about ‘Slapgate’ yet. This is too early. This is too damn early!”

Well old friend, it is never too early to start looking ahead to next year’s Academy Awards as the race for the 95th film (96th if you count Sunrise‘s win back in 1928) that will be awarded Best Picture. Why that particular award over all the others? Because it’s the grand prize that ends the telecast (unless produced by Steven Soderbergh) that will cast a shadow over all the other categories and push out other viable contenders that just miss out on a nomination because they weren’t in a Best Picture contender. Sure, you’ll sometimes get weird outliers like this past ceremony where Best Actress included no performances from a nominee for the top prize, but a vast majority of the other winners came from a nominated film for Best Picture.

Following two straight telecasts with cries from general audiences they had not seen any of the major contenders, angry film buffs that wanted clips last year and no pre-show awards this year, a Twitter marketing scheme meant to connect with the casual movie fans that got taken over by Zack Snyder super fans, and debacles involving the Best Actor category it’ll be interesting to see if next year’s ceremony can finally end the streak of bad press for the Academy.

A few weeks back we saw history made as Apple TV Plus, of all streamers, came from out of nowhere and clipped Netflix’s wings just as they were on the verge of being the first ever streamer to win Best Picture. Instead CODA, a movie that I personally liked but thought came off more like a “made for TV” after school special, pulled off the biggest statistical upset in 90 years, winning the grand prize without key precursors and below the line nominations. Once again showing that even in an era where highly respected films like Parasite and Nomadland win, you still need a movie that is crowd pleasing enough to win on a preferential ballot no matter how many critics’ circles vote for whatever “technical masterpiece” becomes the film to beat early on. This isn’t the same Academy that it was just a few years ago, but the recipe to winning Best Picture is still based on putting a smile on the viewers’ faces. Films that end up with the kind of divisive reactions that The Power Of The Dog did aren’t gonna’ cut it.

So with that in mind I have to remind you that these initial projections for next year’s Best Picture Oscars race are based purely on my objective thoughts on where the race is as of this writing just weeks after the previous Academy Awards had their say. This is purely based on historical precedents and trends, calendar release strategies, likely fall film festivals’ players, insider reports and rumors on what studios see as their ticket to victory, and of course the word that is always associated with the Oscars – “buzz”. And yes, my own personal objective analysis plays a part too, using my gut feeling and thoughts as someone who has gotten more hip to how this race works as the years have gone by.

If you think its still too early, I’ll remind you that last year I also wrote out an initial look at the then upcoming Best Picture race just weeks after the previous ceremony. Six of the initial ten nominees I had predicted went on to get nominated this past February, and a seventh would be nominee (in fact the one that won it all at the end)  was in the initial top 25 board I created. In other words, it’s probably very likely that a good chunk of the eventual next Best Picture nominees are listed on here – including the eventual winner. The only question is which contenders will stick throughout the season like Licorice Pizza did; which will fall like House Of Gucci did; which will rise like Belfast did; and what unknown gem will come out of nowhere ala Drive My Car from last year and become a player.

Ultimately I correctly predicted nine of the ten nominees when I made my final predictions for the previous slate of contenders, but that came after nearly ten months of ups and downs in the race. So lets see who our initial contenders are before we have the Cannes Film Festival next month followed up a couple months later by the historically key fall film festivals. Last year I started out by looking at 25 films through five tiers; this year I’m expanding my scope (at least for now) to up to 55 films across eleven tiers. Not only should these be on your radar as potential Best Picture nominees, but they could also be your next favorite movie of the year, for all you know.

 

TIER 1: THE FRONT-RUNNERS TO GO ALL THE WAY

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 01. Babylon; 02. The Fabelmans; 03. Killers Of The Flower Moon; 04. Empire Of Light; 05. Canterbury Glass

– Details: While being in the initial Top 5 is a great place to be at the start of the season, it is by no means a lock to get a nomination. Last year for my initial projections only two of the six films I correctly had in the final ten came from the top tier and one of the two was the one film I got incorrect for my final nominations’ predictions. If a film is atop the mountain, it has to prove it can stay there over the next nine to ten months of new releases that it will compete with. These are undoubtedly the front-runners for now, but the hype won’t match the reality for all of them.

Canterbury Glass, the yet to be finalized title for David O. Russell’s next film, was in my initial Top 5 last year before it got delayed to this year. Russel’s previous films have found their way to being recognized by the Academy but scandal regarding his behavior on and off the set could become a hinderance to this film’s chances down the line.

Sam Mendes came incredibly close to directing 1917 to a Best Picture win a few years back and he’s following it up with Empire Of Light, a romance that supposedly takes place in and around a movie theatre – meaning it could be that perfect recipe of crowd pleaser and industry film.

Martin Scorsese has Apple’s next major contender with Killers Of The Flower Moon which details a historic true crime case regarding the abuse and murders of Native Americans, starring names like Leonardo DiCaprio, Jesse Plemons, and Robert De Niro.

Steven Spielberg will be back with his own attempt at a Belfast-like story with The Fabelmans, a movie that will be based on his childhood memories and feature an impressive cast that could include the first Oscars nomination for Seth Rogen.

But of the highest of the top contenders, I currently believe Damien Chazelle’s next film, Babylon, is the movie to beat at the outset. Its gotten rave reviews from those who have screened it and it’s based on the time in Hollywood’s history when films were transitioning from silent to sound – not to mention featuring names like Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie. A movie from a respected director with A list stars and about the industry itself? Talk about the definition of “Oscar bait”.

One final note I wanted to make about this top tier before I move on, I have some lingering doubts either of these movies will actually go all the way. Why? Because of late we’ve seen a trend of big name directors falling short to first time nominees in this category, and at least two of these five I can see being that big, respected technical achievement that seems inevitable to win and then a more crowd pleasing movie surges past it at SAG, PGA, and ultimately at the big show itself. Gun to head, these are the five movies I currently think have the best shot to win it all, but I can’t ignore the previous trends we’ve seen on what happens to these kind of frontrunners once we get into next February and March.

 

TIER 2: THE OTHER HEAVYWEIGHTS BREAKING INTO THE 10

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 06. The Killer; 07. Thirteen Lives; 08. Rustin; 09. She Said; 10. Bardo

– Details: As for the next tier, these are the films I believe at the outset are pretty strong favorites to maybe not win Best Picture but get that nomination that could propel them to victory in other categories. If any of the films I believe are “on the outside looking in” are to break into the final ten, they have to find a way to knock out these from contention or hope they don’t live up to the hype.

The international wing of the Academy has been growing fast and foreign language films have broken into top contention (and won in one case) the last few years. If I had to guess which international film breaks into the race this year I’d guess two time Best Director winner Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Mexican comedy Bardo could be that movie. However, I do have my reservations regarding some scandal about the filming of this movie and COVID deaths on set that could hamper its chances

There’s also She Said, a film about the two female reporters that broke the Harvey Weinstein story that has been getting a lot of talk as a top contender. I do wonder if its direct attack on a stain of Hollywood’s history and the studio behind it also having The Fabelmans to campaign for could give it trouble from getting in.

Netflix is back to square one as they continue chasing that Best Picture Oscar and they have Rustin as a potential contender, a movie about a gay civil rights icon with some of the same team behind Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom attached.

Then there’s the dark horse I actually think many are underestimating in Thirteen Lives, directed by Ron Howard and based on the story of the Thailand cave rescue from a few years back and which we just had a well received documentary about. The movie was supposed to be a commercial play released earlier in the year, but word of mouth from private screenings has been unlike anything the studio has seen in some time that they’re reportedly going all in on a late release and major awards campaign.

And if any of these are straddling that line between frontrunner and serious contender to get nominated but not necessarily win, it may be Netflix’s next David Fincher collaboration in The Killer. Based on a graphic novel series that follows a hitman with a conscious, this may be their next major top contender to finally get what has continued to alluded them.

 

TIER 3: SERIOUS CONTENDERS ON THE HEELS OF THE 10

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 11. Everything Everywhere All At Once; 12. Avatar 2; 13. Poor Things; 14. White Noise; 15. The Son

– Details: Of course there are films that are right on the cusp of breaking into that pack of the would be ten nominees for Best Picture, and inevitably come nomination eve a movie that seems to be “on the outside looking in” will find a way into the final slate such as Nightmare Alley which pulled this off last awards season.

And this year there are previous directors with Best Picture nomination experience that could be taking another film of theirs back for another run at the grand prize. This includes movies like Florian Zeller’s The Son (Not a sequel to his previous film The Father by the way), Noah Baumbach’s upcoming White Noise, and Yorgos Lanthimos’s new film Poor Things. Then there’s the whole mystery as to whether James Cameron can deliver or not with Avatar 2 and with at least one populist film getting into the race the last couple years, I can see this one being the big technical choice voters go for like they did with Dune last season.

But the movie that at the moment feels like it could be on that border of making it into the Best Picture race is the new A24 Daniels’ directed film Everything Everywhere All At Once – a genre-mixing, mind-bending, science fiction fantasy film that has been praised as a literal masterpiece by critics and movie fans alike, and as of this writing can claim the highest Letterboxd rating in the site’s history for a feature film. The movie is getting the kind of attention I haven’t seen for a film since 2019’s Parasite and key industry voters have been tweeting out in support of it. The problem is that it could serve to be “too weird” for the Academy at large and it faces the headwinds of being an early release by a small studio with a very mixed record on awards campaigning (though they did win the big prize with Moonlight). If this film’s amazing reception lives up to the hype and survives through the year in the way that CODA did last season even as that particular movie premiered even earlier than this one did at Sundance, then not only can this get into the final ten but it could become the movie to beat on top of that. It’s populist in its great audience scores and it’s from new faces to the awards scene just like the last few winners have been. But if it fades from memory or A24 decides to campaign something else harder, it’ll go the way of an In The Heights and not even be in the conversation by nomination eve, no matter how high its scores with critics and fans are.

 

TIER 4: LONG SHOTS ON VERGE OF BEING TAKEN SERIOUS

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 16. Next Goal Wins; 17. Women Talking; 18. The Woman King; 19. Don’t Worry Darling; 20. The Whale

– Details: There’s those right on the cusp of breaking into the ten and then there’s those right on the cusp of being taken serious as potential “on the bubble” films. This is exactly where I had Best Picture winner CODA for my initial projections for last season’s race – in other words, these aren’t to be ignored.

We have A24’s The Whale, a new film from Darren Aronofsky with a narrative behind it as Brendan Fraser’s comeback movie that follows an overly obese man’s complicated relationship with his daughter. A24 has been openly touting how careful they’ve been with putting the finishing touches to this one and they are expected to campaign for it hard even with other potential campaigns brewing for them.

We have Warner Brothers’ only viable awards contender, in my opinion, with Olivia Wilde’s sophomore film Don’t Worry Darling, a horror sci-fi film about a woman living in a strange virtual world disguised as suburbia. I’ll come back to this later, but it’s a bizarre choice for a studio known to campaign well for awards to gamble on a September-released genre film, so I’m cautious about treating this like their main player to go all the way.

We also have two highly buzzed about upcoming films in The Woman King which features what could be poised to be a Best Actress caliber performance from Viola Davis, and Women Talking which adapts a book about women fighting back against their abusers in a religious colony. The latter could serve to be what replaces top contender She Said as the feminist film of the slate if the industry voters don’t react well to a movie reminding them about sins of their past.

But the one movie to keep an eye on here in my mind is former Best Picture nominee Director Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins which has been delayed various times by the studio with re-shoots and even re-casting, and could serve to be the sports movie of the awards season.

 

TIER 5: LONG SHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 21. Cha Cha Real Smooth; 22. Three Thousand Years Of Longing; 23. The Greatest Beer Run Ever; 24. Spaceman; 25. Nope

– Details: There’s also a slate of films that are arguably within striking distance but farther behind the pack as of this writing. For instance, you’d think Jordan Peele having a genre-defining horror film that got a Best Picture nomination would have his next film Nope higher on here, but horror is a hard sell historically for the Oscars and we saw love for Peele’s writing have its limits when 2019’s Us got nothing.

Then there’s the buzzed about Spaceman from Netflix, a strange sci-fi drama based on a book that is said to feature Adam Sandler’s next “not comedic” performance.

I’d also say The Greatest Beer Run Ever, a crowd pleaser about a Vietnam vet looking to grab beer for his fellow soldiers only to end up in an adventure, is one to keep an eye on given some folks behind the Best Picture winning Green Book are behind it.

George Miller has his next movie Three Thousand Years Of Longing which is said to be an age spanning romance between two immortals that may or may not be up the Academy’s wheelhouse.

But one long shot that might be within striking distance for sure is Sundance audience hit Cha Cha Real Smooth which looks to pull off a CODA type path and even has Apple behind it. It’s a crowd pleaser that won over hearts at the festival about a young man striking up a relationship with an older single mother.

 

TIER 6: VIABLE CONTENDERS THAT HAVE A VERY SLIM PATH

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 26. Living; 27. Tar; 28. Armageddon Time; 29. Disappointment Blvd; 30. The Banshees Of Inisherin

– Details: And then there’s the sixth tier where I think the viable contenders start to be those with a very slim path to climb up the rankings. I’ve been surprised by those who swear an atypical contender like The Banshees Of Inisherin is in the conversation and then we have films from divisive but respected directors in Tar, Armageddon Time, and Disappointment Blvd. But one contender that may just use a slim path to climb its way into the final ten is Living, a British retelling of Akira Kurosawa’s iconic film Ikiru about an elderly man who learns he’s terminally ill and questions what to do with the rest of his life.

 

TIER 7: VIABLE CONTENDERS THAT NEED A PATH

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 31. After Yang; 32. The Northman; 33. Emancipation; 34. Decision To Leave; 35. All Quiet On The Western Front

– Details: In the seventh tier we’re now looking at viable contenders on paper that seem to be looking for a path compared to the higher ranked films

To my surprise I learned a Netflix backed German remake of Best Picture winner All Quiet On The Western Front is on tap for the year and talk is it will go for the Oscar bait choice of being shot and presented in black and white.

Then there’s been great hype and buzz about Decision To Leave, Park Chan-wook’s next work which some have said could be the international player of the season.

We also have the tricky situation Apple is dealing with in regard to Will Smith’s upcoming film Emancipation where he plays the former slave behind one of the most infamous photographs on the subject. Technically Smith can still be nominated and even win an Oscar while being banned from the ceremony the next decade and having resigned from the Academy; but regardless his participation in this could be “too soon” for voters.

We’re weeks away as I write this from the new Robert Eggers film The Northman hitting stateside which could be more accessible than his previous works, but needs a lot of love and Focus Features’ backing to overcome the early release.

But if any movie could be one viable path away from starting to be among the serious contenders its the new A24 film After Yang which has received rave reviews and much love for its use of science fiction storytelling to convey themes of grief, loss, acceptance, and cherishing what you have.

 

TIER 8: TYPICAL CONTENDERS THAT SEEM LIKE WEAK LINKS

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 36. Elvis; 37. Blonde; 38. I Wanna Dance With Somebody; 39. Till; 40. Golda

– Details: Every time this year I see certain Oscar bait films on paper that make their way into the conversation as potential players for the next awards season and in particular, five bio-pics are fighting for relevancy in the race this year; but I currently believe these are probably more acting award vehicles than Best Picture contenders if that.

Helen Mirren’s amazing transformation for Golda about the infamous Israeli Prime Minister seems like the perfect awards contender but it’s backed by a studio with a horrible track record campaigning their films.

We have a film on Emmett Till’s mother in Till but I need to see more to see if it’s an acting contender or something greater.

We also have a Whitney Houston bio-pic in I Wanna Dance With Somebody which can either end up the next Ray or the next Respect.

And then there’s the controversial upcoming Netflix film Blonde about Marilyn Monroe and starring Ana De Armas that reportedly disgusted execs at the company with its NC-17 material.

But of them all, if any of these MIGHT prove me wrong and become a contender, it’s Elvis which is backed by Warner Brothers with names like Baz Luhrmann and Tom Hanks attached and a Cannes film festival premiere planned.

 

TIER 9: LIGHT BUZZ FOR THESE ATYPICAL CONTENDERS

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 41. Marcel With The Shell With Shoes On; 42. Strange World; 43. Turning Red; 44. Pinocchio; 45. Apollo 10½

– Details: With a hard ten slated for Best Picture nominations you have to account for potential animated and populist films sneaking into the race last second. Last year I thought Encanto or Flee or maybe even The Mitchells VS The Machines were in the third or fourth tier by nominations eve but the competitiveness of the animated feature race likely helped keep all of them from breaking through higher. This year we may have another competitive race for that award or maybe we’ll have an animated film that breaks through in such a way that it joins Beauty And The Beast, Up, and Toy Story 3 as the only animated films to get nominated for Best Picture overall. It’s not going to be easy, but its not completely impossible either, in my mind.

Among these atypical contenders that could see a surge and join the nine others vying for the big prize I’d say keep an eye on Richard Linklater’s latest film Apollo 10½, Guillermo del Toro’s next project Pinocchio, Pixar’s latest cultural pushing film in Turning Red, or Disney proper’s next animated film Strange World.

But one movie that could overcome being so low on the board and start climbing in due time is A24’s Marcel The Shell With Shoes On which mixes animation with live action and has gotten rave reviews from those who have screened it at festivals. Furthermore, Scott Menzel who heads the Hollywood Critics Association has openly stated he wants to push this movie in the same way he arguably pushed for CODA. The HCA is an expanding critics group which has started to have an Oscars-like awards ceremony featuring big names in the industry, which means they may have some leverage in pushing movies in front of industry voters and if they decide to champion this movie like they did the last Best Picture winner, I’d keep an eye on this one just in case.

 

TIER 10: ELEPHANTS IN THE ROOM

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 46. The Batman; 47. Knives Out 2; 48. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 49. Lightyear; 50. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse Part One

– Details: And finally we get to that part of the Best Picture projections where I’m looking at likely non-contenders that I can’t quite say are completely out of it either – or at least just yet. In other words the elephants in the room that could catch on and sneak into the race.

You have to look at the upcoming sequels and spinoffs to films the Academy heaped love on in the past such as Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse Part One, Lightyear, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Knives Out 2.

But the biggest elephant of them all right now is the much praised and loved The Batman which has become the best critically embraced DC film since maybe The Dark Knight back in 2008. At a time the industry big shots are blaming and attacking superhero films for lackluster box office for adult dramas, it’s hard to see how even such a technically respected film like this one can break into the Best Picture race. However it doesn’t have that MCU brand to it that makes it toxic for certain voters right off the bat and it feels more like a detective noir than a typical superhero popcorn flick. Genre bias, the early release, and seemingly no signs from Warner Brothers that they’ll campaign it make it a hard climb for the movie, but I can see a world where it makes it in even if its window is so narrow.

 

TIER 11: POTENTIAL SPOILERS

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 51. The Color Purple; 52. Maestro; 53. Napoleon; 54. Asteroid City; 55. A Gem Yet To Be Discovered

– Details: And finally we get to the part of the projections where I offer what I once heard an entertainment journalist admittedly refer to as “reckless speculation.” While there are some yet-to-be one hundred percent confirmed 2022 releases mentioned in this piece, they are very likely to come out this year. However, films that many assume could be next year contenders may be rushed out by the end of the year for an awards run. That includes Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Ridley Scott’s Napoleon, and Bradley Cooper’s Maestro. All of these movies are potentially overnight game changers if the studios backing them reveal they’re 2022 films not 2023 films like we anticipated.

But one movie I’ve had in my mind on is the upcoming Warner Brothers’ backed film adaptation of the musical version of The Color Purple. Filming is taking place right now and as I look at WB’s upcoming slate I’m baffled at their almost empty awards lineup. This is a studio known for making plays for the big prize and they just had two movies get Best Picture nominations. Are they really putting all their chips in on an Elvis bio-pic releasing during the summer and a genre horror film that comes out in September? My mind has been running with a wild theory they’re hoping to squeeze this movie late into the season, and if they do, talk about a major contender. A musical adaptation to a movie that got a ton of nominations back in the eighties? It wouldn’t be the first or last time a studio rushed through a major awards player either. Or maybe I’m wrong and WB is basically punting this year in regards to awards campaigning? Whatever the case I’m keeping an ear to the ground on an official release date announcement for this one.

And of course there is the potential of an undiscovered gem. An international player that is in no one’s mind at the moment, an off the radar film that comes out to the festivals and blows everyone away, etc. There’s always a chance of an unconventional and out of the blue contender to burst into the race. I’ll see after Cannes and look at how the race has changed; maybe that undiscovered gem will have shown up by then?