The Misplaced Menace of Nuclear Power
Two stories in the past week illustrate the critical debate playing out over the world on the question of renewable energy. On March 6, another dire climate change report was issued by the United Nations predicting an existential threat to much of humanity if nations do not immediately reduce their carbon emissions. Two days earlier, the world was fixated on a nuclear power plant in Ukraine being bombed by the Russians. The story of the Zaporizhzhia plant drew much more attention than the U.N. report. CNN spent hours showing the plant and debating its status. The New York Times reported several stories on the plant’s health and its role as a target for Russian forces.
Inevitably, the two stories are connected. The invasion of Ukraine has thrown into stark relief the reliance of Europe on fossil fuels from Russia, a reliance that has helped cause climate change. At the same time, a major alternative to fossil fuels, nuclear power, was demonized for days as a vulnerable part of Ukrainian infrastructure. Pundits on Twitter and elsewhere have even speculated that the attack was a deliberate message to the West, a reminder of the nuclear fears that pushed them towards Russia in the first place.
Fears of nuclear power are primal and engrained. Humans understandably fear the awesome power of splitting large nuclei of poisonous substances such as uranium and plutonium. We are familiar with the stories of nuclear accidents and the specific details of these gruesome events. Nuclear accidents have an immediate, existential nature that is hard for the public to look away from. They involve the spread of radiation that can do unspeakable horrors to the human body. In many instances, they affect civilians and are related to natural disasters that are harming other sectors of society. Radiation can also pollute the environment. Hatred of pollution has fueled much of the anti-nuclear movement over the past five decades.
An important feature of these fears is the incorrect belief that nuclear power plants can explode like nuclear weapons. The nuclear material in power plants is nowhere near as refined as that in weapons. Chernobyl’s nuclear disaster was caused by a steam explosion that released radiation, not a nuclear explosion. No matter the distinction, it is nearly impossible to divorce fears of nuclear weapons from fears of meltdowns and the release of radiation.
All of these fears crystallized following the 2011 nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima reactor in Japan. Day after day brought breathless news coverage of the meltdown, the release of radiation, the number of people affected, and the heroic plant workers who risked their lives to save the country from catastrophe. Overall, one death from cancer seven years later was attributed to the event. The fears stoked by Fukushima pushed the governments of the West to slow down or abandon their nuclear power plans over the next decade. Governments in Germany or the United States could not rationalize the negative news coverage as the result of antiquated Eastern Bloc infrastructure as in Chernobyl. If such a meltdown could harm Japan, one of the world’s most advanced countries, many Westerners believed it could also happen to them.
Nuclear power was not meant to be replaced by more fossil fuels. Instead, the idea was that renewable energy would expand to make up the difference. European countries already seemed to be moving towards full decarbonization. There was more wind and solar power generation everywhere. Battery technology was improving. Green political parties remained sizable. Nuclear power was seen as yet another antiquated energy source that would fall by the wayside just like the use of fossil fuels.
But this rosy outlook was not realized. Instead, governments in Europe simply took the easy way out and turned back to fossil fuels. They prioritized expediency over years of patient investment. In some ways, this shift was necessary. European leaders had to do everything they could to protect their countries from the populist right, which had no interest whatsoever in jettisoning carbon from their economies.
With this nuclear-fossil fuels binary in mind, it is worthwhile to consider the tradeoffs associated with each form of energy production. Nuclear power runs the risk of meltdowns such as the ones at Fukushima or Chernobyl. These events are terrifying to watch on video and can be incredibly dangerous for the people close by. They are also exceedingly rare. The total number of people killed in global nuclear power-related accidents since 1957, not counting potential cancer deaths, is around 50. By comparison, between 2005 and 2019, 83 offshore oil rig workers in the Gulf of Mexico died, only a fraction of the total number of people involved in the fossil fuel extraction industry. Nuclear plants are equipped with regulatory controls and cutting-edge technology to prevent the kinds of meltdowns that have captured the public imagination. They are relatively safe.
This safety is enhanced when compared with the external impact of the fossil fuel industry. According to a recent Harvard study, fossil fuel output kills eight million people every year from pollution. Pipeline spills and leakage from coal ash pits have the potential to contaminate the drinking water of thousands of people. These negative effects do not take into account the effects on climate change and geopolitics.
The key to embracing nuclear power as a stopgap measure towards a greener planet is to understand, minimize, and still accept the risks of nuclear accidents. Stories about nuclear power plants gone rogue must be placed in context. The benefits of decarbonization vastly outweigh the risks of the occasional meltdown. Environmental groups must work more on publicizing the direct health consequences of fossil fuel production, directly tying asthma and other deaths to burning coal and oil. At the same time, they need to drop all opposition to nuclear power outside of targeted regulations that can make the practice as safe as possible.
Nuclear power alone will not solve the climate crisis. Nuclear plants are expensive and take years to go online. Regulations surrounding these plants are cumbersome, and they do not always make financial sense. But the governments of the world have not shown the fortitude needed to let go of carbon without nuclear power. A strategy relying on nuclear power will reduce carbon emissions, decrease the power of petrostates, and make an eventual Green New Deal easier. It is a prospect that liberals especially should embrace.
Here are a few problems with the numbers you give.
1. One problem is that we have no way of knowing what these numbers mean given only the information you have presented here. 50 deaths (excluding cancer risk) since 1957 seems really low. However, there are very few nuclear power plants and a great very many oil rigs. For all we know, if we replaced every fossil fuel based power station with a nuclear powered one we would be lucky to have only 83 deaths in 15 years. I’m not saying that it would be that bad, but you are not really giving us any reason to be more confident in nuclear power than before we read your article
2. Oil is not only used to generate power, it is also used to fuel all sorts of vehicles. Electric vehicles are still in their infancy. They do not, as of yet, have the range that hybrids or traditional fuel only vehicles have. There also aren’t any electric planes, or ships yet. Crude oil is also used for making plastics and while there is bioplastic, we are far from getting rid of our dependence on plastics. Gas is also, of course, used to heat homes (in climates where this is necessary). The point here is this If you’re just going to compare nuclear power and fossil fuel based electricity, then we cannot attribute all of the 83 deaths to fossil fuel based electricity.
3. You have excluded the deaths due to cancer. That is the number that needs to be compared with the 8 million. More importantly, you also seem to be ignoring the fact that nuclear plants are largely based in more remote locations with lower population density while coal and oil based plants are placed near more densely built up areas. (I might be mistaken about this) Any comparison about the health effects must account for where these plants are situated. This may not be something that you Americans would usually think about since you have a whole freaking continent, but those of us who have more space constraints will have to build nuclear power plants in the vicinity of comparatively high density regions. To get some idea of how bad it could get, the town of Chernobyl had a population of 14000 pre evacuation. A lowball estimate of the cancer risk as a result of the meltdown is about 4000. If the surrounding areas had been more built up, we should expect a higher death toll.
4. Related to 3, there is also a question about who is dying and when they are dying. How much damage does air pollution from fossil fuels cause each individual person who breathes it in? i.e. are they going to be dying in their 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s? 8 million people dying 5 years earlier may still be less bad than 1000 people dying from cancer in their 30s and 40s (or even younger).
So, let’s just take a step back. What am I trying to say here. I am not trying to say that we probably shouldn’t switch to nuclear power. (in fact, I consider myself nuclear-curious at least) My point is more modest. If you’re going to argue for nuclear power, then you have to bring a lot more information to the table than what you have presented so far. For all I know the numbers may still favour nuclear, but you have to show that they do.Report
8 million people dying 5 years earlier may still be less bad than 1000 people dying from cancer in their 30s and 40s (or even younger).
Would you give up five years at the end of your life to avoid a 1/8,000 chance of dying now?Report
Maybe? My life now is great. I’ve got a great job, great marriage and a kid on the way. I’m also in reasonably good health (though I need to work on my weight). Maybe it’s too far away, but dying at 85 instead of 90 seems like a good exchange for a slight chance of not having cancer in my 20s and 30s.
Even if that particular number is an exaggeration, there is some chance, perhaps 1/1000 or 1/100 where I would be willing to make that exchange. Also, note that the numbers of people who would die of cancer would go way up if we replaced all fossil fuel power with nuclear. I would need to see more precise disease/exposure ratio comparisons as well as more info on health effects to give you a better estimate.Report
Umm I think you’re mistaken. Outside of anti-nuclear propoganda the number of people proven to get cancer from nuclear plants operating normal is a big fat goosegg and even the number of people who’ve gotten it from plant incidents (excluding Chernobyl which was a unique and a-typical Soviet horror show built without a containment building) is very low.
If you replaced coal with nuclear your cancer rates would logically plunge because coal plants fire out radioactivity at a far higher rate during normal operations than a nuclear plant does.Report
“To get some idea of how bad it could get, the town of Chernobyl had a population of 14000 pre evacuation. A lowball estimate of the cancer risk as a result of the meltdown is about 4000.”
please provide a source for that “lowball estimate”
“How much damage does air pollution from fossil fuels cause each individual person who breathes it in?”
we aren’t talking about individuals, we’re talking about “literally all chordate animals other than humans and their pets die when ocean acidification causes ecosystem collapse”
but you’re scared of nukular atoms
we’re talking about “there is no ice at the poles”
but you’re scared of nukular atoms
we’re talking about “massive yearly infestations of insects and fungus because the freeze-outs that usually killed most of them over winter no longer happen, infestations that can only be countered with widespread use of chemicals since all the animals that used to eat them also died”
but you’re scared of nukular atoms, you’re scared of nukular atoms, you’re so god damn SCARED of NUKULAR ATOMS
if I said that we should ban all Muslims from entering America because I was scared of Terrists you’d call me a racist and rightfully so, and if I nattered on about statistics and interpretations of religious texts and historical data you’d say I was just using a veneer of objectivity to justify my emotional reactions, but here you are Just Asking Questions about nuclear power and you expect us to take you seriouslyReport
I got it from the Wikipedia page.
Dude. I know it sounds bad. I’m just being nitpicky about the kind of argument you should be making. You can’t compare total mortality when one has a low adoption rate and the other does not.
That’s all.Report
“You have excluded the deaths due to cancer. That is the number that needs to be compared with the 8 million.”
It’s my understanding that coal plants release far more radiation than nuclear plants. Now, there are different kinds of radiation, and there’s obviously a higher potential for nuclear radiation to be released from nuclear plants. That said, though, radiation isn’t the only cause of cancer. Pollutants can cause cancer, too, and coal production and burning releases more pollutants than nuclear.
I think we should place nuclear plants with prudence. For starters, not in earthquake zones. But assuming we get better at storing and delivering electricity, it’s reasonable to think we can work out something.Report
Delivery is a far greater problem then storage at the moment – and every time a grid upgrade gets proposed in civil works legislation in Congress it seems to dies off. There is $65 Billion in the Infrastructure Bill that was passed last year, but I don’t think it will be near enough.Report
Right this, as with what North said earlier is the argument the op should have made.
Arguments like these increase my confidence in nuclear power. Not comparisons of total deathsReport
Having grown up on the north end of Cancer Alley I long ago learned to fear chemical plants and refineries more then nuclear, which we had about an hour away FWIW. The fact that I have yet to be diagnosed with something in the disease family still amazes me.
And as a lefty green, I support limited nuclear investment. As has been discussed numerous times here, there are reactor designs that are smaller, safer and just as powerful as the “old” Three Mile Island design, which tells me that we can safely incorporate nuclear into tour combined decarbonized generation future.Report
They key here is that these are just designs. The nuclear boogieman is so powerful that we can’t even build prototypes of these safer designs so engineers can troubleshoot and debug them to make them bulletproof.Report
industrial design and modeling software is sufficiently better then it used to be. And I know of academic institutions that have built them scaled down for research purposes. We know this works.Report
He says to the guy whose career is all about physical and industrial simulation software…
Software modeling, regardless of how good, doesn’t get you certified. Academic scale physical plants (the kind that fit on a campus), regardless of how well built, don’t get you the A-OK from nuclear regulators.
You need to build something big enough that you can reasonably argue “it’ll scale safely and efficiently”, and getting permission from all relevant governments is a hell of a lift in the US.
China might be more willing to let it happen.Report
I’ve said it before and it bears repeating: when it comes time to build a nuclear plant, I suspect that what freaks people out is less the anti nuclear movement, and more the large capital expenditure with a long timeframe for recovery. It’s more likely sticker shock in building, although actually running them is comparatively affordable.Report
people don’t have problems with big capital investments in long-term major infrastructure projects like power plants
what makes people have trouble with these investments is the uncertainty about whether the power plants will be able to start operation when planned and operate for as long as planned
and that uncertainty comes entirely from Oogy Boogy Nukular ScaryReport
for once you and I agree.Report
Maybe… I think it’s still harder when you have a coal-fired plant already existing to say “Hey, let’s make a much larger capital investment in this nuclear plant that will cost about the same to run because it’s cleaner than coal and that’s the right thing to do.” Especially when they seem to run out of money halfway through building the things.Report
Or, lemme put it this way- if you could say, “Hey, nuclear is waaay cheaper to build and run than coal,” you’d likely get a lot more people saying “What ‘risks’ with nuclear? Hell yeah!” I will concede that older people probably remember the China Syndrome, while gen Xers remember the Toxic Avenger.Report
and that uncertainty comes entirely from Oogy Boogy Nukular Scary
At this particular moment in time, the thing that is making start times problematic is the large number of construction flaws that occur, and have to be repaired/replaced, and bankruptcies avoided. Vogtle 3 in Georgia (the state) and the new plant in Finland that powered up this month have disturbingly similar histories. There were major problems with the concrete work. The major steel forgings for the pressure vessels were flawed and had to be redone. Other components were delivered with flawed welding that was detected in final testing on site. As delays piled up, subcontractors were sloppy about following requirements for storing materials until they were needed, and those had to be replaced (usually with long lead times). Both sat idle while major contractors either declared bankruptcy or went through lengthy reorganizations to avoid bankruptcy.
These are not particularly new problems, but we’re looking more closely these days. France is backtracking on some of the license extensions they granted because records about flawed steel in the pressure vessels from 30 and 40 years back are only now coming to light.Report
I’m not sure if this is a growing issue, or if I’m just much more aware of it as I get older and have greater access to information, but it seems to me that contracting across the board is getting more sloppy. From the writing of the contracts, to the execution itself, there is not enough accountability happening to ensure that things are done right.Report
much of the federal government has turned over contract execution management to intermediary contactors. Our ranks of Contracting Officer – with any sort of experience – and Contracting Officer Representatives are shrinking annually. Congress also loves to tweak sections of the FAR, so that what was true in contracting several years ago may not be true today. This is all part of the “make government more efficient like business” movement. Its hugely misplaced and does indeed result in some significant duds. Even so called best value contracts – while not always the cheapest – don’t necessarily get you good stuff.Report
It’s not just in government contracting, I’m seeing it/more aware of it in contracts between private companies as well.Report
We don’t know how to do things anymore.Report
I’m not seeing anything about specific issues that affect operational safety.
I’m seeing something like a thing that happened at work many years ago, where a guy ran into a meeting and threw a book on the ground and yelled “that piece of (expletive) you (expletive) idiots had made is (expletive) (expletive) and it’s gonna (expletive) get someone (expletive) killed and I (expletive) told you so, (expletive)!” Then he stomped out.
Later it turned out that he’d recommended a particular I-beam joint be connected with two plates rather than directly welding the beams together. The fabricator used the plates, but welded both the plates and the beams. The result was actually the same strength, both before and post-buckling, but the guy declared it unusably hazardous anyway because it hadn’t been done how he thought it should’ve been done. It eventually took a program-manager’s direction to get him to sign it off as accepted.
And I’m reading news articles with headlines like “MAJOR DEFECTS ENCOUNTERED IN CABLES” and it turns out the “major defects” are that “safety-related cables” and “non-safety-related cables” were not separated quite as much as the NRC inspectors thought they ought to be (oh, and that when the NRC inspectors said that the entire project had to stop-work until the NRC inspectors decided that the cable-spacing issue had been thoroughly discussed, not everybody on the project completely stopped working).
And I’m reading things like “welding issues” and it turns out that the welding issue in question was that the NRC inspectors thought that some extra reinforcing welds could have looked nicer and then dinged the project when they did not drop all in-process welds to go back and fix the ugly ones. (even the NRC report admits that there was no structural concern with the original welds, they were just upset that they said “frog” and the project people did not immediately jump.)
So, y’know. Do we want people to take this stuff seriously? Sure! Do we have to pay a lot of extra money for them to take the stuff that seriously? Also sure! Does that extra money being paid suggest that we’re somehow bad at doing nuclear-reactor construction and ought to stop? NOPE.Report
It does make you wonder if coal plants get that level of scrutiny?
Honestly, I’m not even sure if nukes operate at significantly higher pressures than coal plants do.Report
Generally, lower. The primary loop in pressurized and boiling water reactors — ie, essentially all of the current fleet outside Russia — are intentionally kept below both supercritical temperature and pressure. It’s the reason why their thermal efficiency is crap.
OTOH, nothing in a coal plant is pumping around mildly radioactive water, nor exposed to enough neutron flux to worry about embrittlement. The NRC’s funny rules are about the things that relate to the primary loop.
After the Fort St. Vrain nuclear plant here in Colorado was decommissioned, the original secondary loop was reused with gas turbine exhaust heat producing the steam.Report
You would think the Navy produces enough nuke rated engineering ratings to keep the civilian nuclear construction business flush with a supply of people who know what they are doing. So either those guys aren’t going to those jobs after they muster out, or the NRC has wildly different standards than the Navy.Report
Great article, agree in total.
Nuclear plants are expensive. Part of that is a factor of extremely hostile and irrational regulation, part of that is because the public is irrationally afraid of nuclear power and part of that is because the old-style large plants are fundamentally big complex expensive facilities.
The first of those problems could be addressed by more rational regulation, the second is probably irreducible in the short term and the third one could be reduced by building more nuclear and actually putting real effort towards new designs and concepts. Imagine, if one would, how much nuclear would have advanced if we’d just kept working on it through the 70’s through to today?
But if we’re going to decarbonize, we’re going to need a lot more electricity from a lot more non-carbon sources. So far, outside of regions with great wealth’s of naturally occurring geothermal or hydro power, every single locale that is striving towards renewable power without nuclear fires up fossil fuel power plants when the sun sets or the wind doesn’t blow.
Fundamentally environmental cleanliness, especially when it comes to carbon emissions, is a luxury good which is something environmentalists (and I) don’t like but it can’t be elided. Power, on the other hand, is a necessity. Democracies especially are necessarily responsive to the needs of their electorates. If AGW comes down to a contest of luxury goods vs necessities then necessities will always win out. If it comes down to a contest between the comfort of the masses and carbon intensity then the planet will burn. We can’t win in that direct contest- low carbon power is desperately needed to square that circle and I remain very dubious it’s possible to pull off if we exclude nuclear from the mix.Report
The big issue is that since city-scale nuclear reactors are, as it were, generational (as in, we get maybe one every ten years) there hasn’t been an opportunity to develop a standard process for building them, and so every new set of NRC regulators and inspectors develops their own interpretation of the regulations, and something that was absolutely fine on one plant is considered a kill-the-project safety hazard in the next one.Report
On this area, DD, you and I are in total agreement.Report
You’ve got the aspect of the voting public in democracies, but I also think to solve the problem we need to look to the rich, industrialized world to build the tech. My understanding is that North America and Europe are on trajectories that if emissions and projected emissions were limited to us the issue would be pretty well mitigated. Of course the rest of the world isn’t going to just sit around not industrializing or decline to pull their populations out of poverty to prevent way down the road consequences. To the extent we can create nuclear that’s also usable to prevent China and India from burning carbon we’re doing even more than just limiting our own. Of course we can’t do that if we’re regulating away our ability to develop and try new things.Report
I mean even in non-democracies a dictator or oligarch desiring any degree of regime stability has to keep an eye on providing the masses with a certain base level of comfort lest they end up dangling from a lamp post.
I suspect that nuclear will get created regardless. I would deeply prefer it was developed in the west under western standards of science and safety and then sold to the developing world rather than it being developed in China, deployed and then sold to the developing world. If we’re gonna smash atoms together I’d prefer it be done carefully.Report
Oh agree 100%. My point was mainly that the developing world and the dictators are going to care a lot less about whether they do it dirty or clean. Which is why we need to at some level prioritize clean for them, as well as for ourselves.Report
On this, as usual, we think a lot alike.Report
It may be the case that 0 people have died from cancer caused by nuclear plants that did not melt down (and a non-trivial number have melted down), but the number of people who’ve died of cancer from uranium mining is very high. Add in other mining-related lung diseases, and it’s even higher.
Nuclear plants don’t begin with the plant itself, and neither do the problems.Report
Sure, but that’s a meaningless metric. Do you honestly think the the composites and rare earth elements that go into solar and wind generation are bloodless?Report