2021 Oscars Projections: Final Predictions As Nomination Morning Closes In

We are now but a moment away from the 94th Academy Awards’ nominees being announced and after critics had their say over the holidays, and guilds comprised of some actual Academy voters have come in over the last couple weeks to shift some narratives and upend some established frontrunners. As I long suspected would happen, some films or performances which critics were lukewarm towards have gotten much more love from industry voters and some films or performances critics wanted to heap praise on and award endlessly are losing steam with guild snub after guild snub. There’s an argument to be made that I should wait for The Hollywood Reporter’s annual weekend before data analysis to write up my final nomination predictions, but honestly those would just have me changing one or two predictions here or there that I can acknowledge elsewhere. For the most part I am ready to reveal what I truly believe will get nominated this Tuesday for the next Oscars ceremony.

As someone who has also partaken in using polling samples to predict elections, I can also tell you straight up that I will get some things wrong and thus I have not just written up notes explaining my thinking on some (not every) category, but also provided a list for each on which potential contenders that I predict will not make it could still be “on the bubble” and prove me wrong by getting in. Also, with the Academy CEO claiming they saw incredible turnout this year after last year’s lackluster participation, there is a possibility even some films or performances not “on the bubble” sneak in a nomination or two.

Also a reminder these are not personal nominations, much less what I am rooting for to happen, but objective attempts to figure out what the Academy will recognize this year. If I had it my way, In The Heights would be sweeping all the categories but alas that film is not even in the conversation. These predictions are based on trends, precursors elsewhere, and every now and then a gut prediction by me on the final slots in each race. My personal thoughts on what I found to be the best from film in 2021 have nothing to do with these predictions though some films or performances listed below were personal favorites of mine.

 

BEST PICTURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Belfast

#2. The Power Of The Dog

#3. Licorice Pizza

#4. Dune

#5. Don’t Look Up

#6. West Side Story

#7. King Richard

#8. CODA

#9. Being The Ricardos

#10. Drive My Car

– Current Rating: Tossup Between Belfast & The Power Of The Dog

– 15 “On The Bubble”: Cyrano; Flee; Encanto; House Of Gucci; Nightmare Alley; No Time To Die; Passing; Spider-Man: No Way Home; Spencer; Summer Of Soul; The French Dispatch; The Lost Daughter; The Mitchells VS The Machines; The Tragedy Of Macbeth; Tick, Tick…Boom!

– Notes: The race has undoubtedly seemingly come down to Belfast and The Power Of The Dog, a battle between a crowd pleasing safe family drama from Focus Features which racked up film festival audience awards and a critics darling arthouse flick powered by Netflix that swept up almost all of the critics’ circles. If you’re looking for a dark horse that can pull a Parasite and surge late the would-be pick would arguably have been the West Side Story remake, but that movie in my mind has been slipping and slipping fast down the scale as it has underperformed key precursors since peaking at that third spot. If any movie could have that narrow path to surge late right now from the under the top two spot, it’s the well-received but not-without-its-critics Licorice Pizza, which has been overperforming where Spielberg’s passion project musical has been flailing. After that, that leaves the only mainstream blockbuster I expect to get in with Dune, the divisive but beloved by industry insiders Don’t Look Up, the sports drama that has slowly climbed up the charts in King Richard, and then there’s the little movie that could in CODA, which has performed a lot better than I suspected it would and arguably has a narrow path to perhaps even win it all if it gets in. Those eight in my mind are practical locks to get in (That comment won’t come back to haunt me).

That leaves the final two slots to likely be wide open in a battle between various movies that feel like they’re on the verge and my final gut feeling on what those two will be are Being The Ricardos, as that industry based movie that goes farther with Academy voters than critics, and the critical darling that has become the international feature that could overperform, Drive My Car. That being said, those final two predicted films are easily my weakest picks so keep an eye on those other fifteen I listed as “on the bubble” from the other major studio contenders House Of Gucci and Nightmare Alley to the not likely but not 100% impossible either to sneak in popcorn flicks that are No Time To Die and Spider-Man: No Way Home to even potential Documentary features making history in Flee or Summer Of Soul.

 

BEST DIRECTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Jane Campion (The Power Of The Dog)

#2. Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)

#3. Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)

#4. Denis Villenueve (Dune)

#5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)

– Current Rating: Tossup Between Campion & Branagh

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Coen (The Tragedy Of Macbeth); Del Toro (Nightmare Alley); McKay (Don’t Look Up); Miranda (Tick, Tick…Boom!); Spielberg (West Side Story)

– Notes: The frontrunner according to many seems to be Campion as she has swept up various awards for director, but knowing Belfast is in the thick of it for Best Picture I would honestly still keep an eye on Branagh to perhaps steal this one if that movie does big on Oscars night; though gun to head today I think Campion edges him out, even in a reality where her film loses Best Picture. In third I’m going with PTA seeing his film’s popularity propel him to a nomination here. After that I gotta’ think the technical love for Dune gets its director a nomination. Which is where the fifth slot could make things tricky for the one and only Spielberg. He got in at DGA but historically there’s always at least one miss by them against the Oscars’ five and if Drive My Car has a real shot at sneaking into the final slot for Best Picture as I believe it just might, I have to go with Hamaguchi given this branch is known to be more cinephile centric and the fact West Side Story has been sinking of late. Though I still think Coen, Del Toro, McKay, Miranda, and of course the aforementioned Spielberg could sneak into that final slot.

 

BEST ACTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power Of The Dog)

#2. Will Smith (King Richard)

#3. Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick…Boom!)

#4. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy Of Macbeth)

#5. Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)

– Current Rating: Tossup Between Cumberbatch, Garfield, & Smith

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Bardem (Being The Ricardos); Cage (Pig); Cooper (Nightmare Alley); DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up); Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)

– Notes: The first three slots here seem to be a lock between the three its all coming down to – Cumberbatch, Smith, and Garfield. The final two are a little more iffy with Washington potentially in a movie whose Shakespearian dialogue could turn off some from even seeing it and I’m taking a gamble on a Dinklage nomination to continue the decades long streak of a first timer nominee in this category. However Bardem, Cage, Cooper, DiCaprio, and Hoffman are probably on the bubble if this group decides to go for well known leading men or a Best Picture nominated affiliated actor over Dinklage.

 

BEST ACTRESS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Nicole Kidman (Being The Ricardos)

#2. Lady Gaga (House Of Gucci)

#3. Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye)

#4. Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

#5. Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)

– Current Rating: Total Tossup

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Hudson (Respect); McDormand (The Tragedy Of Macbeth); Stewart (Spencer); Thompson (Passing); Zegler (West Side Story)

– Notes: What started out as Stewart versus everyone else has become a total tossup with Gaga pulling off stunning wins with some major critics’ awards, Chastain pulling off a few herself with some regionals, Coleman getting some momentum from smaller independent film awards, and Kidman getting momentum of late from industry minded voters. Stewart has won all the love from most critics’ circles but her film is getting snubbed everywhere when it comes to the guilds and she shockingly (well to some, I wasn’t personally completely shocked) missed SAG. If Stewart is sunk by non-critics not responding to her movie, look for either Haim (Which I am predicting to sneak into that final slot), Hudson, McDormand, Thompson, or even Zegler to take her place.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power Of The Dog)

#2. Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)

#3. Troy Kutsur (CODA)

#4. Jamie Dornan (Belfast)

#5. Jared Leto (House Of Gucci)

– Current Rating: Tossup Between Hinds, Kotsur, & Smit-McPhee

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Affleck (The Tender Bar); Cooper (Licorice Pizza); Faist (West Side Story); Plemons (The Power Of The Dog); Simmons (Being The Ricardos)

– Notes: Just like the lead actor category, this has become a three-way race between the top three in Smit-McPhee, Hinds, and Kotsur. After that we get into the tricky part of figuring out the final two slots and I would predict Dornan and Leto to sneak in as of this writing. However with Dornan missing SAG and BAFTA and Leto’s performance being divisive look towards Affleck, Cooper, Faist, Plemons, or Simmons sneaking into this on nominations morning if they end up not making it.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Ariana Debose (West Side Story)

#2. Kirsten Dunst (The Power Of The Dog)

#3. Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)

#4. Aunjuane Ellis (King Richard)

#5. Ruth Negga (Passing)

– Current Rating: Tossup Between Balfe, Debose, & Dunst

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Blanchett (Nightmare Alley); Dowd (Mass); Matlin (CODA); Moreno (West Side Story); Streep (Don’t Look Up)

– Notes: Some might consider it blasphemy that I’m currently rating this one a battle between the top three contenders as Debose seems like the frontrunner sweeping everything up. However there’s just something keeping me from being too bullish on this category having a clear frontrunner just yet. Supporting Actress is well known for surprises and we could still see Dunst or even Balfe suddenly surge late with big industry based votes in the way last year’s winner in Youn Yuh-Jung did when it seemed early on like Maria Bakalova was the one to beat. After them I still think Ellis gets in even though she missed SAG and that’s followed up by Negga who I have just getting in, given she’s in the only film from these contenders that isn’t likely to get nominated for Best Picture. Blanchett who got into SAG could sneak in if one of those final two gets snubbed, if not Dowd, Matlin, Moreno or of course Streep.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Belfast

#2. Licorice Pizza

#3. Don’t Look Up

#4. King Richard

#5.  Being The Ricardos

– Current Rating: Tilts Belfast

– 5 “On The Bubble”: C’mon C’mon; Encanto; Mass; The French Dispatch; The Mitchells VS The Machines

– Notes: This is seemingly a battle between Belfast and Licorice Pizza with everyone else battling to just have the honor of being nominated. However I actually think the former has the current edge to get the win over the latter given its a strong contender to win Best Picture and doesn’t have some of the controversies surrounding Anderson’s film. After that I see Don’t Look Up and King Richard getting nominated here as well alongside another Sorkin script in Being The Ricardos.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. The Power Of The Dog

#2. Dune

#3. West Side Story

#4. CODA

#5. The Lost Daughter

– Current Rating: Leans The Power Of The Dog

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Drive My Car; Nightmare Alley; Passing; The Tragedy Of Macbeth; Tick, Tick…Boom!

– Notes: For this category The Power Of The Dog is clearly the frontrunner though I hesitate to call it a likely winner before we see what the industry voters actually award when the guilds actually vote. Likely Best Picture contenders CODA, Dune, and West Side Story round out the next three nominees and I’m going with The Lost Daughter to sneak into the wide open fifth slot but I’m honestly not 100% confident in that choice and the five I placed as “On The Bubble” are much more in the race than the previous category Original Screenplay’s bubble contenders are.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Encanto

#2. The Mitchells VS The Machines

#3. Luca

#4. Raya And The Last Dragon

#5. Flee

– Current Rating: Tilts Encanto

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Belle; Ron’s Gone Wrong; Sing 2; The Summit Of The Gods; Vivo

– Notes: Animated Feature in my mind is Encanto‘s for the taking though The Mitchells VS The Machines has been pulling in a strong run at the critics circles. Pixar’s Luca should get into the race but the final two slots do feel wide open to me. Right now I see Disney’s other animated flick in Raya And The Last Dragon getting in alongside the groundbreaking film Flee making history as the first documentary to get into this race. If either or both get snubbed that would leave Belle, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Sing 2, The Summit Of The Gods, or even Vivo as potential sneak-ins.

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Us Again

#2. Robin Robin

#3. The Windshield Wiper

#4. Step Into The River

#5. Only A Child

– Current Rating: Total Tossup

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Affairs Of The Art; Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice; Mum Is Pouring Rain; Namoo; The Musician

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Drive My Car

#2. A Hero

#3. The Worst Person In The World

#4. Flee

#5. Prayers For The Stolen

– Current Rating: Leans Drive My Car

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Compartment No. 6; I’m Your Man; Lamb; The Good Boss; The Hand Of God

– Notes: This is starting to feel like Japan’s Drive My Car‘s race to lose with Iran’s A Hero, Norway’s The Worst Person In The World, and Denmark’s Flee being my predicted runner-ups and Brazil’s Prayers For The Stolen being my predicted annual surprise though my bubble picks could easily make that fifth slot.

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. When The Sun Sets

#2. The Long Goodbye

#3. Tala’vision

#4. Censor Of Dreams

#5. Frimas

– Current Rating: Total Tossup

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Ala Kachuu: Take And Run; Les Grandes Claques; The Dress; The Criminals; You’re Dead Helen

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Summer Of Soul

#2. The Rescue

#3. Flee

#4. Procession

#5. The First Wave

– Current Rating: Tossup Between Flee, Summer Of Soul, & The Rescue

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Attica; Ascension; Julia; The Velvet Underground; Writing With Fire

– Notes: Its a massive gamble to try and figure out what this branch is going to do. It is infamous for outrageous snubs and strange frontrunners that come from out of nowhere late. I’m going to just mostly play it safe and just let the chips fall where they may. Don’t be surprised if this is the category I get the most misses in.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Three Songs For Benazir

#2. The Queen Of Basketball

#3. Coded

#4. When We Were Bullies

#5. Terror Contagion

– Current Rating: Total Tossup

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Audible; Day Of Rage; Camp Confidential; Lynching Postcards; Sophie And The Baron

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. “No Time To Die” (No Time To Die)

#2. “Be Alive” (King Richard)

#3. “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)

#4. “Down To Joy” (Belfast)

#5. “Just Look Up” (Don’t Look Up)

– Current Rating: Tilts “No Time To Die” (No Time To Die)

– 5 “On The Bubble”: “Beyond The Shore” (CODA); “Guns Go Bang” (The Harder They Fall); “Here I Am, Singing My Way Home” (Respect); “Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days); “Your Song Saved My Life” (Sing 2)

– Notes: The biggest story in regards to this race has been the fact Disney turned in another song from Encanto to compete here other than the song “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” which has become an all-time singles hit for them. Had they turned that “banger” in I suspect they would be more in play to win here but instead we have Beyonce chasing another Bond song sung by Billie Eilish herself.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. The Power Of The Dog

#3. Don’t Look Up

#4. Being The Ricardos

#5. Encanto

– Current Rating: Tossup Between Dune And The Power Of The Dog

– 5 “On The Bubble”: No Time To Die; Spencer; The French Dispatch; The Green Knight; The Tragedy Of Macbeth

 

BEST SOUND: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. Belfast

#3. West Side Story

#4. Tick, Tick…Boom!

#5. No Time To Die

– Current Rating: Leans Dune

– 5 “On The Bubble”: A Quiet Place Part II; Last Night In Soho; The Matrix Resurrections; The Power Of The Dog; Spider-Man: No Way Home

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. The Power Of The Dog

#3. The Tragedy Of Macbeth

#4. Belfast

#5. West Side Story

– Current Rating: Total Tossup

– 5 “On The Bubble”: C’Mon C’Mon; Nightmare Alley; Passing; Spencer; The French Dispatch

 

BEST FILM EDITING: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. Belfast

#3. The Power Of The Dog

#4. Licorice Pizza

#5. Don’t Look Up

– Current Rating: Total Tossup

– 5 “On The Bubble”: King Richard; Nightmare Alley; No Time To Die; Tick, Tick…Boom!; West Side Story

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. The Matrix: Resurrections

#3. Ghostbusters: Afterlife

#4. Spider-Man: No Way Home

#5. Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings

– Current Rating: Leans Dune

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Black Widow; Free Guy; Eternals; Godzilla VS Kong; No Time To Die

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Dune

#2. Belfast

#3. West Side Story

#4. The Tragedy Of Macbeth

#5. Nightmare Alley

– Current Rating: Leans Dune

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Cruella; Cyrano; Spencer; The French Dispatch; The Power Of The Dog

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. Cruella

#2. House Of Gucci

#3. Dune

#4. West Side Story

#5. Nightmare Alley

– Current Rating: Leans Cruella

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Cyrano; Spencer; The French Dispatch; The Power Of The Dog; The Tragedy Of Macbeth

 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: 2021 Oscars Projections
#1. House Of Gucci

#2. The Eyes Of Tammy Faye

#3. Cruella

#4. Dune

#5. Coming 2 America

– Current Rating: Total Tossup

– 5 “On The Bubble”: Cyrano; Nightmare Alley; No Time To Die; The Suicide Squad; West Side Story