Sinema-tography: Why Analysis of Kyrsten Sinema Might Need To Be Reworked:

Adam Bass

Adam Bass is an aspiring reporter and broadcaster from Massachusetts. He graduated from Wheaton College in Norton MA. Bass was general manager, and head of the political news coverage department of WCCS Wheaton College, where he did extensive coverage of the Massachusetts Senate Primary Race and The Massachusetts 4th congressional district primary race, as well as reporting on other National and local news. He now works as an intern for Newton News at NewTV where he has covered the 2021 municipal elections, hosts and produces The Cod Cabin where he and three of his colleagues podcast about Massachusetts politics and news, and has been working part time at WCRN 830 AM in Worcester Mass.

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12 Responses

  1. Saul Degraw says:

    I have seen something like this analysis before and it might have merits but I also think she possibly learned all the wrong lessons from being in the state legislature. There was an article I read months ago that stated the victories she promoted in her memoir were largely phyric and quickly overturned.

    I am not sure if this is the article I remembered reading but this one from 2018 seems to have shown that certain segments of the left already soured on Sinema: https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/we-read-arizona-senate-candidate-kyrsten-sinemas-book-so-that-you-dont-have-to-10410254Report

  2. Saul Degraw says:

    Also in terms of “maverick” John McCain, he voted with his party more often than not and it seems highly unlikely that he would bray opposition over a big signature piece of legislation like this. Even if what you write is in Sinema’s head as her thought process, it is possible that she is still very, very wrong and making a bad calculation which will leave her with no friends.

    IIRC Arizona is pretty evenly split between Democrats, Republicans, and “independents” (really partisans who hate self-identifying as such). She is losing so much support that I have a hard time seeing how she survives a primary even one in 2024 among Democrats and why would Republicans want her?Report

    • JS in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      My take has always been that she wants to mirror McCain’s career. Which, to be fair, is not a bad idea for a battleground state where he was a popular long-term Senator, and given she’s heavily supported by and friends with Cindy McCain.

      The problem seems to be that Sinema either does not understand how McCain managed to take the and keep the “maverick” image without losing primaries, getting booted from his party, or otherwise marginalized unless he was the last vote. Or she does understand, and suffers from either being inside a total bubble or an inability to read the room (so to speak). Or both.

      Her actions and negotiations appear to be that of someone who understood John McCain occasionally took bold, public stances against his party and got rewarded for them.

      But who doesn’t understand the way in which McCain carefully chose those moments, making sure such stances were both popular among his voters and — perhaps more critically — supported his very specific PR image of a ‘bold, maverick, truth teller who stood for what he believed’. Even if a cynical man can point out he was careful to do that when, long-term, it’d make him more popular and had local approval.

      Otherwise, McCain was quite a reliable Republican vote.

      I think Sinema thinks she’s taking a bold, mavericky stand against this for….reasons she won’t fully articulate, but assumes will resonate with her voters. Despite polling showing that it absolutely isn’t. Worse yet, whatever reason she is doing so she is communicating poorly — if at all. I’m a political junky, and I’m absolutely at a loss for what her specific reasons for opposing this bill are, or what she wants, or any of the bits you’d want blazed openly to back up your stance.

      Why is she opposing this bill? What does she want in this bill? What would it take to change her mind to support this bill?

      I’m not ruling out that she has a coherent reason for her position, but it seems very much like she’s not actually telling people what it is. Just releasing random objections to this or that, without rhyme or reason.

      Manchin is predictable. Manchin is understandable. You can work out what he wants, what his price is, and how to meet it. His motivations are at least explicable.

      People are openly speculating about Sinema being bought simply because….whatever is going on, they don’t know why. So why not money? Or fame? Giving her poll numbers, “two term Senator” seems to be unlikely…

      Which, if nothing else, is an utter PR failure for a Senator.

      if she’s going to stand against her party on a major item, she needs a story. The party has a story for why it wants this bill. The GOP has a story for why it opposes it. Manchin has his story for why he’s against it (or parts of it).

      Sinema…doesn’t. Or if she does, nobody is hearing it.Report

      • Saul Degraw in reply to JS says:

        This makes sense to me. There is plenty of circumstantial evidence that her “bold” stances are directly related to campaign contributions received which makes everything think she is looking for a sinecure.Report

      • Michael Cain in reply to JS says:

        One of the things she lacks is McCain’s “anchor” policy: he was always in favor of an aggressively military foreign policy and more money for DoD. In his time, that was sufficient to establish him as a conservative and people would forgive his transgressions in other areas. Sinema doesn’t seem to have a similar anchor where the Democrats can absolutely positively count on her. Or perhaps she does and I haven’t recognized it. McCain’s did have the advantage that the DoD budget was almost never lumped into a reconciliation package, or included in government shutdowns, but was speechified and voted on separately.Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to Michael Cain says:

          She is a solid vote on abortion rights and voting rights but that is not enough for the bigger-tent Democrats. Also people on the Democratic side seem more willing and able to connect issues.Report

          • If I were advising her on the choice of a signature issue, the obvious one seems to me to be climate change. The real nuts and bolts side of it, where important decisions are going to be made. She represents a state where fire and water are enormous concerns, plus their relationships to energy. She has opportunities to make those her decisions.

            Granted, it takes years for a Senator to work themselves into that position — McCain didn’t just show up and become chair of the Armed Services Committee. And I don’t think she’s that patient. The same can be said for a lot of our Congress critters these days — I suspect there’s enormous hidden resentment in The Squad, for example, now that they realize it’ll be 20-30 years before they get to draft the meaningful bills.Report

  3. Chip Daniels says:

    This seems like a lot of wishcasting, of creating a Sinema that one wishes existed.

    Her transition from Green to Blue Dog can be read as pragmatism, but can as easily be read as self-serving. Her refusal to articulate her demands and work with the Senate leadership don’t seem like they have anything to do with “bringing home wins for Arizona” so much as they do “Elevating Krysten Sinema’s value to lobbyists.”Report

  4. North says:

    The one good thing about Sinema is nothing much can be done about her for roughly four years. You can’t even really start mustering much of a primary challenge for threeish years. So if this analysis is correct then Sinema may corral some GOP legislators and actually get some stuff accomplished with Bidens eager cooperation. If she doesn’t, though, then I expect she’ll be primaried and shown the door. It’s all up to her. She has a significant hole to dig herself out of with the party- how deep will depend on what ultimately happens with BBB.Report