Why The Senate’s Current Dynamic Duo Might Not Be So Dynamic

Senators Joe Manchin (R-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) Composite image taken from Wikimedia Commons. Both photos from the respective offices of the senators, Office of Senator Joe Manchin, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Everyone loves a tale of two individuals working together for a goal. Especially in politics. Whether it is in the past where Tip O’Neill and Eddie Boland of Massachusetts tried to turn the State House a deep shade of blue, or even today where Massachusetts Congressman Jake Auchincloss and New York Congressman Ritchie Torres both went to Newton to just meet and greet people as buddies.

Yes, there’s nothing more catching to the eye when one political personality not only strikes controversy or excitement but gets another person to join in and form an alliance.

One of the big dynamic duos that everyone in Washington and the political media ecosystem has shown the most interest in is of course Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.

Both are moderate Democrats, and both of them have shared similar policies and viewpoints that make passing desired legislation by Democrats in control of congress rather sluggish.

Both oppose the abolition of the filibuster, both voted down an increase for a $15 minimum wage hike, both have expressed concern about spending, and currently, both are in the center of negotiations of finding a compromise for President Biden’s “Build Back Better” reconciliation package.

Because of their vocal opposition to most of the plans laid out by the White House and other Democrats in Congress, the two have been labeled by some as the dynamic duo that has caused progress in the country to slow to a snails crawl, and that if they would simply get in line, they would not be a problem. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont said as much, saying on Twitter: “2 senators cannot be allowed to defeat what 48 senators and 210 House members want. We must stand with the working families of our country. We must combat climate change. We must delay passing the Infrastructure Bill until we pass a strong Reconciliation Bill.”

And yet…what if that’s not necessarily the case? Not that Senators Manchin and Sinema aren’t  the two focal points of Washington; they are. But what if this dynamic duo isn’t so…well, dynamic?

The United States Senate, for all intents and purposes, is a chamber with a ton of individuality in each of its 100 members, and with a 50–50 split, every vote counts more. For reconciliation, all 50 members who either caucus with or are Democrats need to be satisfied, and each of them all have a different stake and opinion on the reconciliation bill.

For example, Manchin recently said today in a media scrum that he was not on board with a carbon tax, despite how reporting from the New York Times suggested that it could have been an option. Naturally, because Manchin is the star of negotiations right now, he will get the most attention from his opposition on television and social media.

But you know who else has spoken out against a carbon tax? Democratic Senator of Montana Jon Tester, who said to reporters today: “I’m not a big fan of the carbon tax. I just do not think it works as it was explained to me.”

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Photo by U.S. Department of AgriculturePreston Keres/Office of Communications-Photography Services Center, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

This might come as a surprise to some, but despite his optimism and love of profanity, Tester still represents a rather right-leaning state. Montana is the 6th largest producer of coal in the United States, and while Manchin is incredibly vocal about his skepticism in the clean energy programs being provided in the bill, it wouldn’t surprise individuals if Tester might have the tiniest reservations about carbon pricing as well.

What about Krysten Sinema? The Arizona Senator has long been not keen on the House of Representatives’ drug pricing provision that would allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices. Many have pointed to Sinema’s donations from those in the pharmaceutical world as the driving force behind this and put the onus on her since she is the center of negotiations right now.
Today, however, another Senator announced his opposition to the drug pricing plan: One Bob Menendez of New Jersey, who flatly said to Sahil Kapur of NBC that he was, at the current moment, a no on the plan. “I’d like to finally see something that tells me what they want to do.”

Senator Robert Menedez, Photo by Senate Democrats, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

To be fair, there has been an argument that Menendez would be on board right away if both Manchin and Sinema were ok with the pricing proposal, as Menendez would not want to be the senate vote to immediately break with the pharmaceutical connections he has made over the years.
At the same time, however, it could very well be that he had doubts even before the Manchin-Sinema tango, although we cannot dive into Menendez’s head.

The point here is that despite Manchin and Sinema being the two most vocal opposition to the plans being proposed, it isn’t that they are the only ones in the Senate who feel this way.

Mark Warner, who comes from Virginia, a state that is rapidly moving more and more to the left as the suburbs become friendly towards Democrats due to educational polarization, still is not in lockstep with all of President Biden’s plans. He even said that he wanted the bipartisan infrastructure bill to have a senate vote first before reconciliation, which is a phrase usually tied to Sinema.

In some cases, some Senators have formed their own power couples that could potentially cause traffic ahead. Senators Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Ed Markey of Massachusetts formed a duo that claimed: “No climate, no deal” when the infrastructure bill was being drafted. Markey is still very concerned about any climate being slashed in the reconciliation, as he has been posting stats and polls about climate on his Twitter feed more and more recently following a New York Times report that Manchin wanted the clean energy plan off the table.

Senator Ed Markey (D-MA) Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR). Screen grab from C-SPAN coverage of Green New Deal press conference.

What is most striking, that was pointed out by Dan Kennedy, professor at Northeastern University, was that the negotiations between Manchin and Sinema aren’t even paired.

In fact, you could say that they are….well, a two-track process.

President Biden has been meeting with the two Senators separately rather than a package, and as a whole, the two have completely different viewpoints of the bill.

Manchin is concerned about spending and the climate costs, but is in favor of the drug pricing provisions as well as rolling back the tax cuts of the Trump Administration in order to pay for the bill.

Sinema on the other hand is reportedly not for rolling back the tax cuts and is more concerned about pay-fors.

While it is unlikely to happen; there very well could be a butting of heads between the two over how the senate bill is constructed, thus breaking up the supposed dynamic duo.

The interest in these two Senators as a pair comes from their outspokenness, which is fair, but there are many Senators who are just as outspoken as they are. Even in the House of Representatives there are those who agree with the two and don’t get nearly as much coverage due to the chamber being bigger and there being a bit more wiggle room for Democrats (albeit not a lot either, but there is something more dramatic in storytelling when it is 50–50).

At the end of the day, this power couple is not really anything special. They are important, as Democrats do need 50 votes to pass their bill via reconciliation, but, as a wise person once said: “In a 50–50 Senate, anyone can be a Sinema or a Manchin.”

This piece first appeared on the author’s Medium page