Twenty Years Into the Future
It seems as if all my memories took place in the hour of twilight and remain suspended there between evening and night. This could be the result of living in the northern latitudes as an adult and in the South as a younger man; twilight is much more significant, sharper there; it glows more intensely, but it also has the effect of rendering my memories less distinct, but sharper too.
I do recall standing with other young men, in the courtyard behind a dorm building embedded in the twilight din of crickets, with cheap candles in our hands on Sept. 12, 2001, attempting collectively to illuminate the darker day prior. I don’t know that any of us fully understood what had taken place, or what it meant, although meanings would soon enough be handed out like the candles. I do remember my friend Nicholas shrugging his shoulders and whispering to me,
I don’t think anything’s changed. People keep saying everything’s changed. What do you think?
In the version of this story that I usually tell, I respond: “Still too early to tell.” It was a conscious echo of the famous anecdote about the Chinese premier Zhou Enlai being asked in 1972 about the impact of the French Revolution and responding: “Still too early to say.” It’s one of those too-perfect stories: he apparently thought he was being asked about the 1968 Revolution, which probably was too recent to say. In my case, I said the first part, but I usually leave out what I said next:
No, man, I don’t think anything’s changed.
In retrospect, this sounds too glib and aloof, and it was; but I was also wrong: 9/11 was a catastrophic act of terrorism, and it also worked; it was a trigger that launched the historical, and hysterical, unhinged overreaction that was The War on Terror, and much of the political dysfunction and cultural derangement that has afflicted America as a result in the years since.
But, then, I knew nothing. At the time, I was completely aloof and I was studying at a small liberal arts university that nurtured aloofness. I didn’t actually hear about the attack on the World Trade Center until late evening on the 11th. I knew that something was wrong; I could read it in people’s body language as I walked around the campus of William & Mary; I saw people who looked as if they were sleepwalking, or had just been awoken from sleepwalking. They were dazed and had become strangely timid, and it felt like I was in a dream. So, I just watched them and remained aloof. Until the sign on that evening’s class: “Cancelled.” We would later find out that the professor’s son was working in the Trade Center building; instead of lecturing, he spent all night trying to find where his beloved child was- he survived.
Meanwhile, with my second cancelled class of the day, I wandered around until I found another classroom with a television set on and a few academics huddled around it like a fire in a cave, and then I saw what had happened.
You could have knocked me over with a feather.
My current long-distance lady friend was in NYC at the time, where she still lives today; and, as with many people who go through disasters, what she remembers most is the mutual aid that arose in the community of terrified and wounded; the way people came together to help others to whom they might otherwise have never spoken. She still resents how quickly that was forgotten by the rest of the country, erased, rewritten as soon as the media and the government started firing up the jets.
When I graduated the following year, one of our commencement speakers was a very elderly Margaret Thatcher, who spoke only of the importance of fighting the “Waw on Tewwowr.” Nothing else seemed to matter by that point.
In a way, it was understandable. Nobody saw it coming. While the public in NYC responded nobly, the state apparatus was caught completely flat-footed. Intelligence warnings had been ignored; fighter jets were sent to intercept planes that had already crashed; after nearly sixty years of the “military-industrial complex,” its very heart, the Pentagon, was caught unable to protect itself from a kamikaze bomber, for Christ’s sake. Exposed as a paper tiger, the US state was determined to strike back, and in the case of Iraq, strike preemptively. War is what we did well.
The so-called “political discourse” soon ripened and rotted on the branch. Where “liberals” were traditionally seen as feckless and financially irresponsible simps, now, they were mentally ill, treasonous, and likely sympathized with the terrorists; after all, both groups “hate America.” To be fair, there were some earlier predecessors to this vitriol: Rush Limbaugh was always more of an anti-liberal than a conservative; Straussian neoconservatism argued that liberalism breeds a sort of dissipated nihilism that will cause itself to collapse. But, now, the media discourse seemed more inclined to blame the classical liberalism that was baked into the American project from the start. The free press was an enemy of the state; the system of laws and debate a hindrance to the “decider” in chief (a concept borrowed from the Nazi legal theorist Karl Schmidt); dissent needed to be corralled in “free speech zones”; and, lest we forget, the Constitution “is not a suicide pact.”
The public took their cues from the state and panicked. Lest we forget “Threat Level Orange” and shoe bombers and anthrax and Homeland Security. And, even worse, the people who seemed to find new meaning and purpose in kulturkampf, expecting domestic political debates to invest their lives with grandeur. I’ve always felt there was something totalitarian about this impulse and a virtue in being “unaware.” War abroad faded from consciousness, while American domestic politics became the real “forever war.”
Back then, a new breed of “public intellectuals” arose. While the rest of us were unsure of things, teetering in uncertainty, they told us this was the world war of our times, an existential struggle for our very survival against an enemy ideology, “radical Islamism,” which was the Fascism our generation had to defeat. Even a brief comparison between the massive might and military of the Axis powers, and the “axis of evil”- handfuls of mutants riding around in the back of pickup trucks with decrepit rifles and box-cutters- made this ridiculous. The media, nevertheless, hailed the public intellectuals as clear-eyed realists. Within a decade, most of them had stepped back from their drumbeating; in response, the media praised them as intellectual fair-dealers. Now, most of them are still around, warning of the existential struggle our civilization faces for its very survival against the fascism of our time: “wokeism.”
What exactly was the left doing at this time? Very little. There were some anti-war marches; Susan Sontag was vilified by as an anti-American in the press; Michael Moore made his movie. Otherwise, Democrats simply acquiesced, faded into the background, after having spent the decade prior pleading that none of them were “liberals.” They maybe beat the drum a little less enthusiastically. Barack Obama would later run on a pledge to close Guantánamo Bay and never do so. Hopes were forgotten; change never came. Killing people with drones he found easier to sell to the public than on-the-ground combat.
About Guantánamo Bay: already by November, 2001, White House officials had begun writing what became known as the “torture memos,” a tortured argument that the courts could not reach prisoners of war kept in Guantánamo Bay and that a legal case could be made that the Geneva Conventions did not apply to a failed state like the Taliban government, nor to non-state actors such as Al Qaeda. The administration was trying to sell “enhanced interrogation” even before it was brought before the public. They were already planning a legal defense; in case they were prosecuted. As a result, torture, for Christ’s sake, went from being an absolute moral evil, to a sometimes-necessary emergency measure, to a tool, it was argued, that serious people would have no qualms about using. It remained a moral evil, but the grievous moral harm would be borne by other people; just as someone can never be “un-tortured,” someone made to torture cannot be easily made whole again.
For the Straussian philosopher princes in the White House, the point was to make an interesting rhetorical argument. When Colin Powel told them (in January 2002) exactly why these policies would harm American troops on the battlefield, reality got drowned out by theory. Nevertheless, as Saul Bellow’s Mr. Sammler once prayed aloud, speaking about absolute moral imperatives:
For that is the truth of it — that we all know, God, that we know, that we know, we know, we know.
We forgot. It was at this point that my revulsion at the poisoned American culture made some things that were once inconceivable to me seem conceivable. I turned inwards to old books and art and away from all political conversations. And when my real-life Canadian girlfriend asked if she should move to the states, I said, “No, I’ll move there.” Canadians are always shocked when the American wants to live in their country, where there are less grandiose opportunities.
And so, she and I were together for about a decade and married for seven years. I’ve stayed here for the grieving. Sometimes grieving takes longer than you expect it to. And this has altered the entire course of my life and shaped its last two decades.
So, I suppose I was totally wrong on that count too.
Last night on Hulu I watched Notturno, a documentary by Gianfranco Rosi.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7945450/
It was filmed over three years across the borders of Syria, Kurdistan, Iraq and Lebanon and presents without comment the lives of several people navigating that tortured land.
It’s a hard watch, showing the ground level effects on various people- A mother visiting the jail cell where her son was tortured and killed; Children matter of factly describing ISIS forces torturing other children; Or people just going about their lives without reliable water or electricity.
These scenes form the “other” 9-11 reminiscences, the ones from the reaction to it and what was unleashed and continues to this day.Report
If you can track down The Dreams of Sparrows, I would recommend it- the documentary was shot by contributing local directors on the ground in 2003 and 2004.Report
Thank you, I will.
I also watched recently The Painted Bird, which is an even more painful watch, about an orphaned boy finding his way alone across the landscape of WWII Eastern Europe.
Both films make me think of how we political types like to chatter on about wars in grand ideological terms of good and evil, while at the ground level from the perspectives of the innocents swept up in it, those terms become obscene abstractions.Report
I think there is a type of person that got a good university education and went into policy work right afterwards, for whom 9/11 was confirmation of all the philosophy they had read in university. It gave them a sense of purpose. All I can say is, were I in the military, I imagine I would regard them and their directives with great suspicion.Report
They’re talking about bringing the television show “24” back. Rebooting it.Report
In 2051, there will be an Emmy Awards ceremony in which the television industry will pat themselves on the back for how they fostered peace and understanding in the heated, jingoistic years after 9/11, and how they are now fostering steely resolve in this season’s existential battle for America’s survival against Iceland.Report
Not to be a downer, but in 2051 everyone is going to look at the rapidly growing consequences of climate change and say, “What were we thinking?”Report
This is very likely. What freaks me out aren’t the climate change denialists, because mendacious assholes aren’t exactly a rare type; it’s the people I know who are currently: 1. Very upset with their neighors who won’t wear masks and get vaxxed in the face of a crisis because these are simple things, 2. Very upset about the consequences of climate change, 3. Unable to make even the slightest changes to their way of life as a result. It freaks me out because, how can you think you’re free, if nothing in your life can change?Report
2001 me: In twenty years, if there is another catastrophic event, like a plague that wipes out a million Americans, we will use the lessons learned to come together and battle a common foe.
2021 me: *weeping, then laughing, then weeping some more*Report
“Nuclear power, for some reason, was deemed ‘unfashionable’. Documents show that this was tied to the oil industry.”Report
All sorts of things happened at different times. At the same time that the federal government was initially making a big push for nuclear power in the eastern part of the country — the vast majority of nuclear plants in the US are east of the Great Plains — in the Southwest they were pushing a string of very large coal-burners situated in places to provide mining and power station jobs for the Indian tribes.Report
Hey, I’m just trying to predict 2051.Report
Ah, I don’t really buy this argument, even though many people do, and I get that.
But my suspicion is the hypothetical crusty old dudes with cigars in darkened back rooms who are trying to decide if they’re going to build a nuclear power plant are thinking way less about what Susan Sarandon will think of them, and way more about the very high capital expenditure costs to build a nuclear power plant and that ongoing capital costs for nuclear power are also generally higher than coal or gas-fired energy.
If the costs were to come way down (especially on the construction end), I suspect nuclear would become more fashionable all of a sudden.Report
I remember a once-famous pundit who, responding to something Jane Fonda said against nuclear power, “argued” that Jane Fonda favored big government but opposed nuclear power, which could not exist as an industry without big government. Checkmate, Jane.
Maybe you find that reasoning puzzling. Don’t blame me; I’m just reporting what he wrote.Report
It makes no difference to me really. I’d like to see more nuclear power and can’t remember the last time I thought of Jane Fonda.
Just as a practical matter, the cost to build a new plant used to be around $8 bil. but that was over a decade ago. The last project I read about was budgeted around $14 bil. but halfway through, they realized it was going to come out to about $23 bil. and had to decide whether or not to continue forward.
I just have a feeling it’s about that point where everyone starts saying, “What is this going to do to the poor coal miners?”Report
The Russians say they can build a new nuke for Finland for $8B per GW, ten-year schedule. In the US, the South Carolina PSC abandoned a pair of half-built nukes because it was cheaper to abandon and buy electricity elsewhere than to finish. The Georgia PSC is more stubborn, and is determined to finish a pair, now estimated at $12B per GW and 12 years construction time. Note that the Georgia project got lots of support from the Obama administration and faced minimal legal issues. The problem was repeated f-ups by the companies building them.
There is a project to do a plant based on SMRs at the Idaho National Lab. DOE is putting up a bunch of the money. It’s to be built on federal land because no state was willing to issue a business license. The cooling water will come from the Snake River because the feds can ignore state water law. The project size was halved a couple of months ago because the utilities putting up the private sector money are running scared of the price in the long term.Report
I’m going to avoid making a dumb joke about whether you’d really want the Russians building your nuclear plant…
But, yeah, I’ve heard $8 bil. is a reasonable price to aim for, and I can definitely see how, in certain hands, it can go much higher.
Our city is currently working on a (obviously not nuclear-powered) light rail transit system that was estimated to cost $1 bil. and that was about $4 bil. ago!
I think it must be possible to innovate and reduce the costs, or at least avoid overruns, but it’s definitely above my paygrade.Report
I sometimes wonder if Russian engineers make jokes about the Vogtle 3 and 4 construction problems.
Most recently, the NRC conducted a special inspection of Vogtle 3 in June and found serious problems in some of the safety systems’ electrical cabling. A couple of weeks ago they announced no fueling would be allowed until all of that was ripped out and redone to spec.Report
The dumb joke about Chernobyl, or the dumb joke about how they’ll build in fatal flaws and use them as ransomware?Report
Americans , as a generalization, haven’t had to come to grips with giant tragedies often. 9/11 was handled well in the short term by people coming together but most of our other major losses were on foreign ground and the blood spilled in WW2 was distant for most. We, again solely as a crude generalization, dont’ seem to conceive of how other peoples have had just as big or worse losses. That twisted cultures and hardens hearts and turns otherwise calm minds towards violent foreign policies. It happened here and we were right to need some action to make us safer. Every place we get ourselves enmeshed has had analogous pain , sometimes even caused by us, but so few Americans know what to do with that knowledge if even they can start to understand it.Report
One of the interesting things I’ve read about disasters and catastrophic events is what happens in the movies- everyone panics and chaos takes over and makes everything much worse- almost *never* happens. What happens is people come together and improvise and get through it. BUT the people who very often panic are government officials and other elites, and often by trying to keep a lid on things. THAT’S what usually makes things much worse.Report
In a random group, the person who knows what to do can probably convince enough people to be effective at a small scale.
At a larger scale, we don’t select our leaders for being good in a crisis, or even for knowing what to do.Report
We still have the problem of how to get Geneva to work with Al Qaeda. Geneva says armies should do “X”, AQ doesn’t do that, they’re clearly illegal.
After that we either have a gap in Geneva where it’s undefined what we’re supposed to do, or (if you want to argue there is no gap), supposedly Al Qaeda is a group of normal criminals and thus be tried in civilian courts.
These civilian courts are bound by laws which assume the police have control over the situation and are laughably inappropriate if we’re talking about a battlefield in a foreign country where the army was needed to capture the “criminals”.
Obama’s solution to this was to not take captives and just kill people on the battlefield. That prevents Geneva from being a problem but might cause other issues.Report