The 2022 Best Picture Race: Spring Projections

The Academy Awards’ 2020-2021 season came to an end in late April in controversial and embarrassing fashion for the organization. In an arrogant decision that blew up in producers’ faces, they gave out the Best Picture award before the lead acting ones in anticipation of ending the show with a celebration of the late Chadwick Boseman’s life — only for Anthony Hopkins to upset him to win the award and not even be in attendance to accept the honor. Thus, a season that saw small movies that even some Academy members themselves never got around to seeing get honored, ended with a dud of an ending. To make things worse while expectations of a ratings hit were high, the size of the hit that those ratings actually took was more than some expected. A perfect recipe of a pandemic, low film viewership in a year without many major releases, changes in how we consume media, an abnormally long season of eligibility, smaller films, and even apathetic behavior among members of the Academy lead to one of the roughest and worst received film awards seasons in recent memory. And that’s without mentioning the mess that has been The Golden Globes of late.

And yet even with so much working against it, nearly ten million televisions still tuned in to watch perhaps the most intimate and non-mainstream ceremony the organization has ever put together. Best Picture winner NOMADLAND (Which I pegged in a previous piece as the film to beat) saw a jump in those seeking out to watch it on demand or in the few theatres showing it after its win, continuing the trend with past winners’ profits in the aftermath of victory. The Oscars still has a particularly sizable niche audience that continues to care about it, and the award for Best Picture still gives its winner considerable benefits.

This season the Academy’s eligibility window will be the shortest ever at ten months (From March 1st to December 31st), and plans are to return the ceremony to the Dolby theatre on February 27th. After a year of small films in mostly small screens, I and other Oscars watchers believe 2022’s ceremony will see bigger films from bigger studios get more love. Members of the Academy are said to be hungry for studio movies and the previous 5% rule (In which nominees must have been chosen as the top film by 5% of voters) that kept the slate of nominees from ever hitting a perfect ten will be gone – allowing for a potential bigger box office populist sort of movie to sneak in at a time VFX members have been growing in numbers in the makeup of the Academy. This means that the slate of nominees we get could end up with could be the most populist and mainstream we’ve had in quite some time.

Nevertheless, with less than a year to go until the ceremony, it’s not too early to begin making early projections for the slate of 2022 Best Picture nominees. And before you look at me like I’m nuts for doing 2022 Best Picture projections, I’ll remind you there’s already folks out there trying to predict the 2022 midterms, and I’ve even seen one model of the 2024 presidential race already.

So here are the films that I consider to be the current twenty-five most likely contenders for the 2022 Best Picture award at this obscenely early stage of the process. I’ve divided the contenders into five tiers, ranked in order of what I consider their likelihood of getting nominated. A reminder that these are based on objective analysis on what will get a chance at being nominated, and not a personal raking of films in terms of what I think of them or how excited I myself am or am not to watch them. Also keep in mind these are projections based on information I have nine months out, some of these movies’ chances at the nomination will fall and rise as the season churns along, and there’s bound to be a few films that probably aren’t even mentioned that find themselves in the race come February. Finally, movie release schedules can change such as a film that I intended to list on here was just re-scheduled for 2022 (THE NORTHMAN), so there is an off-chance one or maybe even two of these movies doesn’t even make the eligibility window.

2022 Best Picture Tier 1: The Most Serious Of Contenders; Experts Are Debating Which Of These Is The Early Frontrunner

#1 THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH (A24/Apple; Dir. Joel Cohen)
After getting completely snubbed to levels that I found insulting the year prior, A24 bounced back this year with its film MINARI which got various nominations and won the Best Supporting Actress award. This year they look to be coming in very strong with an adaptation to this Shakespeare tragedy which will be shot in black and white, have a Cohen brother in the director’s chair, and will star Denzel Washington and recent now three-time winning Best Actress Frances McDormand. If that doesn’t say Oscar bait, I don’t know what will. I believe this film is being severely undervalued among some early Oscars predictors; the Academy loves costume dramas, they love black and white cinematography, they love the Cohens, and they love Washington and McDormand. And furthermore Apple, who has been getting very serious about joining Netflix in competing for Oscars, has partnered with A24 to get this film out to the public. It’s my personal belief that this starts out as the strong frontrunner to not just get nominated but maybe even win it all.

#2 HOUSE OF GUCCI (United Artists; Dir. Ridley Scott)
Of all the films on this list, this is arguably the one getting the most talk right now thanks to set photos that have become Film Twitter memes. This will be a dramatization of the murder for hire plot that engulfed the Gucci family in the nineties. The movie will be directed by Ridley Scott and star Adam Driver and Lady Gaga. The ensemble will also include the likes of Al Pacino, Selma Hayek, Jeremy Irons, and Jared Leto among others. It’s a historical drama, it’s got well respected actors in it, a director that has been hit or miss but when he hits the Academy loves him, and a lot of transformative character roles. Some experts are buying into the hype as much as Film Twitter has and early insider reports seem to be this could be a serious contender. The only thing that makes me a tad hesitant about placing it so high up is that Scott is known for missing pretty badly at times with certain projects and I could see this one potentially floundering once it actually gets some eyes on it. But on paper at least this should be a contender for both getting nominated and maybe even winning the prize.

#3 NIGHTMARE ALLEY (Searchlight Pictures; Dir. Guillermo Del Torro)
Just a few years removed from his big Best Picture win with THE SHAPE OF WATER, Del Torro will be taking a crack at adapting this novel which itself saw a film version made of it back in the forties. This regards a con-man carny that ends up getting himself into trouble when he links up with a dangerous psychiatrist. It seems like it will be set in the forties, be directed by an award-winning director, and have an ensemble that includes Bradley Cooper, Cate Blanchett, Willem Dafoe, Toni Collette, Richard Jenkins, Ron Perlman, Rooney Mara and David Strathairn. Talk about an Oscar winning recipe. Of course, the question is if this lives up to the hype and keeps him in the Oscar conversation or if this ends up another CRIMSON PEAK for Del Torro (Which for the record I really liked).

#4 SOGGY BOTTOM (United Artists; Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Academy loves themselves some Paul Thomas Anderson and you know what else they like even more? Movies about making movies. And that’s what this new film from Anderson will be all about as we follow a young man becoming an actor during the seventies. Bradley Cooper stars and set photos seem to indicate they’ve pulled off transporting viewers back to that time in Hollywood’s history. Always bet big on a high profiled movie about moviemaking when it comes to the Best Picture race both for nomination and eventual victory.

#5 CANTERBURY GLASS (20th Century Studios; Dir. David O’Russel)
How does this ensemble sound like to you? Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, John David Washington, Rami Malek, Zoe Saldana, Robert DeNiro, Mike Myers, Timothy Olyphant, Michael Shannon, Chris Rock, and Anya Taylor Joy among others. Yeah, that’s quite the cast. Now add in a critically praised director, the fact it’s a period drama, and Disney behind the marketing campaign. Safe to say this will be one that Academy members could easily fall in love with, and early insider reports seem to indicate it’s a serious contender for both getting nominated and winning the whole thing.

2022 Best Picture Tier 2: Strong Contenders To Keep An Eye On; Early Favorites To Get Nominated But Not In The Frontrunner Conversation

#6 WEST SIDE STORY (20th Century Studios; Dir. Steven Spielberg)
Yes, there’s a ton of Broadway plays that haven’t been adapted to film, and yes with the pick of the lot Steven Spielberg decided to remake the one that is already beloved by many (It’s my father’s all-time favorite movie) and already won the Best Picture Oscar. This was originally slated to come out this past holiday season but was pushed back a year so that it could compete for the following season’s Oscars. While remakes of Best Picture winners have a very mixed (mostly negative) record of critical and commercial success, this is Steven Spielberg we’re talking about here and it’s a remake of a story that has proven to be a winner. Of course, there could be a real possibility that this ends up with mediocre to “just okay” reviews and ends up just another musical in a year filled with plenty of them that ends up sort of forgotten come voting time. But again, Steven Spielberg is directing this so its automatically in the conversation.

#7 THE FRENCH DISPATCH (Searchlight Pictures; Dir. Wes Anderson)
Originally slated to come out last Summer, this new Wes Anderson project has a massive cast that includes Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothée Chalamet, Jeffrey Wright, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Liev Schreiber, Edward Norton, Willem Dafoe, Saoirse Ronan, Jason Schwartzman, and Anjelica Huston among others. The movie is about various stories that connect to a local paper in a fictional French city. The movie will be premiering in Cannes and was in the early Oscar conversation last year. If this hits as well with Academy members as some are anticipating it will, it could easily be a contender to get a nomination for Best Picture.

#8 DON’T LOOK UP (Netflix; Dir. Adam McKay)
Following his Oscar success with THE BIG SHORT and VICE, Adam McKay’s next project will be a satirical take on two astronomers struggling to get the public to believe them that a comet is hurtling towards the Earth with the power to end all life. Like other top tier contenders, this will have a pretty impressive cast that will include Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchet, Jonah Hill, Timothée Chalamet, Tyler Perry, Ron Perlman, Chris Evans, Mark Rylance, Rob Morgan, and Michael Chiklis among others. Thanks to McKay’s recent success and Netflix’s backing this starts out a strong contender to get a nomination, but I’ve also heard some word of mouth that the script to this has leaked and some are saying it doesn’t sound like a strong story – but we’ll see.

#9 THE POWER OF THE DOG (Netflix; Dir. Jane Champion)
An adaptation of a novel, this regards a man’s battles with his brother’s wife and will be set in a past period of time. It will star Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, and Jesse Plemons. On paper I would kind of disregard this as a lower tier contender but the current word of mouth on the film has been stronger than I initially expected and there’s serious talks that Netflix wants to strongly campaign this one as a Best Picture contender. While I personally have my doubts if this will stay on as a strong contender, too many with more inside knowledge than I have say it starts out as one for me to ignore its chances at a nomination.

#10 DUNE (Warner Brothers; Dir. Dennis Villeneuve)
Following a year where reportedly a chunk of Academy members didn’t even turn in ballots because the films were too small for their liking, it believed big studio movies will have a real shot to get in the Best Picture conversation. This adaptation of the infamous sci-fi fantasy novel is hands down the strongest contender right now to be that populist sort of mainstream film that ends up getting nominated for the big prize in the same vein as a BLACK PANTHER or a MAD MAX: FURY ROAD. Furthermore, Warner Brothers has decided to premiere this through film festivals in the Fall like many would be Oscars contenders do, and early word of mouth from insiders are this could very well be this decade’s STAR WARS or LORD OF THE RINGS. If there’s going to be a major big event film that makes the cut, this one is the early frontrunner to be that film.

2022 Best Picture Tier 3: Real Contenders To Get Nominated, But Will Need Some Higher Tier Films To Underperform

#11 IN THE HEIGHTS (Warner Brothers; Dir. John Chu)
After over a year of trailers for this one, we’ll finally get a chance to see this film adaptation of the Broadway hit from the mind of HAMILTON creator Lin-Manuel Miranda come this Summer. The movie has already screened though to some selective audiences and word of mouth has been great with some buzz already for various potential Oscar nominations in several categories including Best Supporting Actress. This is the kind of joyful, diverse, big hit, studio musical that could gain a passionate following among the younger Academy members and end up as that populist crowd-pleasing nominee. I myself am personally extremely excited for this one. But the only thing that has it right at that line as a favored nominee or just missing out on a nomination is that this is coming out in the Summer while the aforementioned WEST SIDE STORY remake will release in the middle of the awards season when voters are mostly paying attention (On top of the Spielberg brand being behind it). That could mean this is that movie like a DA 5 BLOODS last year or movies like THE FAREWELL or CRAZY RICH ASIANS before that in that it gets lauded and praised as one of the best films of the year but ends up missing out on the Oscar love.

#12 ETERNALS (Marvel Studios; Dir. Chloe Zhao)
I’d make a strong argument that when the last decade in films is looked back upon by mainstream general audiences, the Marvel Cinematic Universe will feature heavily in crowd-pleasing classics from the era. However even with all the success Marvel Studios has enjoyed, they’ve only seen one Best Picture nominee in their entire existence. But word of mouth is growing that this new film of theirs, directed by Chloe Zhao who is hot right now from her Best Director win and starring an incredible array of actors and actresses, will be like no Marvel film we’ve seen before in tone and story. This was originally slated for last year but is now planned for awards season later this year with serious talk that this could be that Superhero film that breaks through new glass ceilings for the genre in the way THE DARK KNIGHT and BLACK PANTHER did. If that hype becomes reality and one or two of the top two tier films ends up bombing critically, we could see this end up a serious contender in the race.

#13 MASS (Beeker Street; Dir. Fran Kranz)
This early 2021 film festival premiering drama regards the meeting between a parent who lost a child in a mass shooting and the parent of the child who committed that horrible act. Word of mouth on this one has been stellar with Film Twitter folks who got to see it already rallying behind it as a serious Oscar contender. I myself am excited to check it out when it releases later this year, but while it seems to be a potential serious contender, I would pump the breaks on already predicting it to make the final ten. The film has more than a few problems working against it – it’s a small film that was picked up by a small distributor with a bad record at campaigning its films for awards, it will be in competition in a year filled with big studio movies, and it might not be one of those accessible films that Academy members latch on to. That said the Oscar buzz on this one is such that I can’t ignore this as one of those movies that could have a real chance to break into the final ten even with some of the mountains it’ll have to climb to get there.

#14 ANNETTE (Amazon; Dir. Leos Carax)
This bizarre looking musical starring Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard is about a standup comedian and opera singer’s daughter who ends up being born with a gifted ability of some sort that hasn’t been revealed to us in the marketing yet. This is premiering at Cannes and has been picked up by Amazon who are serious about catching up with Netflix and Apple in the race to see which streaming service will be the first to win this big prize. The movie is quirky and could easily end up not catching on but the positioning of it as an awards contender and some early word of mouth that it truly can be a contender have me thinking this could be a dark horse a lot are counting out a little too early. That said the movie is a musical in a year filled with them and could be too quirky for its own good when it comes to attracting Academy members, thus I consider it a contender to get into the final ten but I’m not ready to say it will make the final slate.

#15 ENCANTO (Disney; Dir. Jared Bush/Byron Howard)
Disney has a lot of animated features out this year. They already released RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON and their betters at Pixar are coming out with LUCA this Summer. But this film slated for a Thanksgiving release with the one and only Lin-Manuel Miranda co-writing songs is already been said to be a potential big contender. From what we’ve been told this movie which takes place in Colombia will follow a girl who is the only one in her family not to have magical powers. The Academy has only nominated three animated films for Best Picture in the past (BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, UP, and TOY STORY 3), but it’s always been thought a guaranteed slate of ten and no 5% rule could help more to get in. For instance, its theorized last year’s SOUL or 2015’s INSIDE OUT may have been the would be ninth or tenth nominees. So, I would keep a strong eye on something like this potentially becoming a major player and sneaking in as that tenth slotted Best Picture nomination slot.

2022 Best Picture Tier 4: On The Cusp Of Getting Into The Conversation, But Not Quite Among The Real Contenders Just Yet

#16 NEXT GOAL WINS (Searchlight Pictures; Dir. Taika Waititi)
We’re now in the territory of films that I don’t necessarily consider strong contenders to get into the Best Picture race, but I do think have the very real plausibility of climbing their way up to that conversation. First up is a new film from Taika Waititi fresh off directing the Best Picture nominated JOJO RABBIT. This will be a comedic take on the true story of an American-Dutch coach who has to turn around an awful America Samoa soccer team. Waititi’s track record speaks for itself so you can’t discount this as becoming a serious contender, but it could turn out to be not “Oscar-baity” enough and its being released by a top-notch campaigns distributor that will likely prioritize other contenders over it.

#17 BEING THE RICARDOS (Amazon; Dir. Aaron Sorkin)
When it comes to Aaron Sorkin you either fall in love with his witty dialogue or you end up rolling your eyes at his writing. Sorkin is coming off fresh from THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 which ended up getting nominated for a Best Picture Oscar this past year but also ended up floundering down the stretch with it being the only top nominee not to win one Oscar down the ballot. His next project is a film on Lucille Ball and Dezi Arnaz which has gotten very skeptical reactions from some especially after questionable casting in the lead roles in Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem. Set photos hasn’t ended the skepticism, but this is from a writer and director the Academy respects and loves and who just saw a film of his get plenty of nominations. This is one of those films that will either quickly climb up into the higher tiers, or quickly fade away from the race.

#18 LAST NIGHT IN SOHO (Focus Features; Dir. Edgar Wright)
Edgar Wright’s newest project will focus on an aspiring fashion designer who finds herself transported back to the sixties to meet her idol. The movie will also be a psychological horror and feature Anya Taylor Joy in the lead role. Wright’s films have always been critically praised, but he’s never had that Oscar moment. But Wes Anderson was in the same predicament before eventually the Academy started to look his way. This could be the film that gets them to look towards Wright and word of mouth from insiders is that this very much has the potential to end up in the Best Picture race. That said it might be just a tad too much of a genre film for the Academy and Wright’s track record getting love from them isn’t too great so I wouldn’t consider this at the moment anything more than a plausible contender than a real one.

#19 THE LAST DUEL (20th Century Studios; Dir. Ridley Scott)
Your eyes don’t deceive you; Ridley Scott has two films that could end up in the Best Picture race. Originally this was slated for last year in time for awards season but has now been pushed to this Fall. This is actually based on a book in which a French Knight duels with his squire over his wife’s honor when the latter is accused of raping her. The film is a period and costume drama, directed by a respected icon, and features stars like Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, and Adam Driver. Plenty recipe here for an Oscar contender. But the movie’s distributors will probably have other titles in mind for serious awards campaigning and Scott himself will likely be more invested in getting the higher tier contender HOUSE OF GUCCI into the race. But if that one bombs, this is an easy potential Plan B for those who want to see a Ridley Scott film contend for the biggest prize.

#20 CODA (Apple; Dir. Sian Heder)
The only early festival premier film to get as much buzz as higher tier MASS for Oscar contention is this more family friendly film about a young woman wanting to branch out from her family’s fishing business – who happen to all be deaf with her the only hearing member of the family. The film will feature actual deaf actors in the same way SOUND OF METAL did, including Best Actress Oscar winner Marlee Matlin. There’s been tons of Oscar buzz for this one after getting a great reception at Sundance, and I can certainly see this becoming a small film that gets passionate support from the Academy. However, I’m much more skeptical of its chances given that we already have another small festival film making arguably bigger splashes and word of mouth from insiders and experts are that the film can come off a bit like a low budget Hallmark film to some Academy members. Apple decided to distribute this one which helps their chances, but for now I just see as more of a plausible contender than an actual one.

2022 Best Picture Tier 5: Potential Cinderella Stories That Will Need To Build Momentum At The Right Time

#21 A JOURNAL FOR JORDAN (Sony; Dir. Denzel Washington)
And now we enter the fifth tier where I’m looking for potential dark horses that build momentum to have Cinderella like runs to the nomination. The first film I see having that potential is this Denzel Washington directed true life adaptation about a soldier who leaves a journal for his son on how to live his life just before he is killed overseas in action. Michael B Jordan will be in the lead role in what could be his highly anticipated Oscar moment. Washington is beloved by the Academy and this could build up steam at the right time to become that one small film in a year of big studio films to make it to the race for the biggest prize.

#22 THE GREEN KNIGHT (A24; Dir. Ruben Ostlund)
This epic Arthurian fantasy recounting the legend of Sir Gawain and the Green Knight seems like the biggest film A24 has ever attempted. Dev Patel who the Academy has shown fondness for is in the lead role and the trailers we’ve gotten so far show a beautiful film as we always expect from A24’s catalog. There’s a lot of hype right now around this one being a crowd-pleasing tone down fantasy epic that could end up getting momentum at the right time to have the possibility of getting nominated for Best Picture. The only thing is this film will need a perfect recipe of higher tier films not meeting expectations, films that aren’t even listed in this piece to stay ranked below it, and a lingering passion for it that carries it past the Summer, into the fall, and right onto awards season. It’s a longshot but I can see this one having an off chance if the stars align.

#23 CRUELLA (Disney; Dir. Craig Gillespie)
Another long-shot film that I believe has an opportunity to become a potential contender is Disney’s live action prequel to 101 DALMATIANS. This is their version of JOKER and before you laugh at that comparison, I’d consider that those who have seen the final cut have warned some that while this isn’t an R rated film it is not for the kids either. The costumes and cinematography are already getting buzz for lower tier Oscar awards and there’s even some slight buzz for acting awards. This will be coming out on Memorial Day weekend to kick off Hollywood’s big Summer box office comeback after GODZILLA VS KONG’s big success fueled the theatres back into profits. It will need to build momentum for a long period of time to have a shot at getting into the conversation but watch out for this one being a dark horse that could find itself in the thick of things come February.

#24 SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS (Marvel Studios; Dir. Destin Daniel Cretton)
If there is one major dark horse gamble, I would place a little money on just in case it might be this new Marvel flick due out by Labor Day. At a time we’re getting more and more diverse stories and casts, this could end up having a cultural breakthrough that the Academy can’t ignore in the way BLACK PANTHER did. It all depends on how well the film is received and how much of a cultural footprint it leaves. Keep an eye on this one to have a fighter’s chance to get into the conversation.

#25 FLEE (Neon; Dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen)
And the final film I’ll highlight among my picks for the current twenty-five top contenders is one that could make all kinds of history. This isn’t just an animated film, but a documentary animated film. In this true-life story, we get the story of a man who just as he is about to wed his husband has to reveal his past to him regarding his escape from his country. The movie has gotten rave reviews from those who have seen it and there’s already been some buzz that it could pull off a nomination for Best Documentary, Best Animated Film, and maybe even Best Picture if it gets enough passion behind it. Word of mouth from one expert I read was that its distributor “Knows what it’s got” and a campaign to make it the first ever documentary nominated for Best Picture is very much in the works. I’m skeptical this one could get that far but Neon were the folks who took PARASITE from a foreign festival film entrant to a Best Picture winner, and we’ve seen foreign language documentaries make it into the Best International Film slate against narrative features so there’s precedent for documentaries to get a lot of love. It’s a major longshot, but it might behoove us to keep an eye on this one come awards season.

These are just the twenty-five films that I believe are currently in the strongest position to end up in the 2022 Best Picture race as of pre–Memorial Day weekend. There are other films that I could think of as potential contenders that I’d place in lower tiers right now, but at that point I’d just be listing films that could and might end up in the conversation if certain things go their way by year’s end, but I’m not necessarily thinking of them as contenders as of today either. Last year at this point in the race MANK was the frontrunner to win the big prize and while it did end up getting nominated, by the Fall NOMADLAND had taken the top spot and never let it go – a film that I probably would had pegged in the fourth or fifth tier at this point last year. And of course, there’s the whole tricky situation regarding foreign films that may or may not end up with the kind of momentum past foreign Best Picture nominees had. These movies still need to come out, still need to get critical praise, still need to gin up a passionate fanbase around it, and still need to have strong awards season campaigns. So just like the start of an election cycle, this thing is just getting started and these are like those early polls that tell us little. As the infamous quote from another Best Picture winner (ALL ABOUT EVE) puts it, “Buckle up; it’s going to be a bumpy night.”