More European Countries Suspend Use of AstraZeneca Vaccine

Andrew Donaldson

Born and raised in West Virginia, Andrew has been the Managing Editor of Ordinary Times since 2018, is a widely published opinion writer, and appears in media, radio, and occasionally as a talking head on TV. He can usually be found misspelling/misusing words on Twitter@four4thefire. Andrew is the host of Heard Tell podcast. Subscribe to Andrew'sHeard Tell Substack for free here:

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6 Responses

  1. Jaybird says:

    Risk is one of those things, I tell you what.

    Kinda surprised, honestly.Report

  2. Brandon Berg says:

    “Better that ten people die from the disease than that one person die from the cure.”

    –Drug regulatory agencies

    Although this is probably overly charitable; my understanding is that these adverse events are not occurring at higher rates than would generally be expected, so it’s not clear that there’s any good reason to suspect a causal relationship.Report

  3. Kazzy says:

    What did the trials show?

    “Someone took a medicine and something bad happened! Did the medicine cause or contribute to it?” is the supposed of thing that trials are supposed to answer. If the trial was done well, we should know if the vaccine caused or contributed to the blood clots. If it did, we should have an idea of what frequency we can expect to see blood clots arising in those who receive the vaccine. And we’d have some idea of whether there are risk factors. This is why trials are done.

    Now, the novelty of Covid-19 and of these vaccines means there is going to be more uncertainty that with most medicines because we simply don’t have the time to observe for long-term or even really medium-term effects. It is a bit of a dice roll. But if folks are having blood clots within days or weeks of receiving the vaccine, the trials should have data on that.Report

    • Brandon Berg in reply to Kazzy says:

      Quoting from an article at the Telegraph:

      Out of the 17 million people across Europe who have received the vaccine there have been 15 events of deep vein thrombosis and 22 events of pulmonary embolism.

      Blood clots are a common condition, particularly among older people who are currently prioritised for vaccination.

      Given that one in 1,000 people suffer from blood clots every year, we would expect that out of the 17 million who had been vaccinated 17,000 of those would get a blood clot over the next 12 months – about 320 people every week.

      AstraZeneca has pointed out that in clinical trials there were fewer blood clots in those given the vaccine than in those who did not receive it.

      By the way, phase III clinical trials rarely have, and generally can’t reasonably be expected to have, the statistical power needed to catch rare side effects. Drugs are continually monitored for adverse events after they go to market, which is sometimes referred to as phase IV.Report

  4. Kazzy says:

    Thank you.

    So, it would seem I was somewhat off in the ability of clinical trials to capture such rare side effects. However, it would seem there isn’t real reason to be concerned about negative effects of the AZ vaccine and that its use shouldn’t be determined based on blood clot fears.Report